NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance in the 21st Century Also by Geoffrey Lee Williams CRISIS IN EUROPEAN DEFENCE (with Alan Lee Williams) * THE EUROPEAN DEFENCE INITIATIVE: Europe’s Bid for Equality (with Alan Lee Williams) * LABOUR’S DECLINE AND THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS’ FALL DENIS HEALEY AND THE POLICIES OF POWER (with Bruce Reed) THE PERMANENT ALLIANCE: The European–American Partnership GLOBAL DEFENCE: Defence in a Nuclear-Missile Age Also by Barkley Jared Jones BRITISH PUBLIC OPINION TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE AND AMERICA AFTER THE COLD WAR * From the same publishers NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance in the 21st Century The Twenty-Year Crisis Geoffrey Lee Williams Director The Institute of Economic and Political Studies Cambridge and Barkley Jared Jones Senior Research Fellow of the Atlantic Council of the UK Darwin College University of Cambridge © Geoffrey Lee Williams and Barkley Jared Jones 2001 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2001 978-0-333-65764-5 All rights reserved.No reproduction,copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced,copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,90 Tottenham Court Road,London W1P 0LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2001 by PALGRAVE Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue,New York,N.Y.10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVEis the new global academic imprint of St.Martin’s Press LLC Scholarly and Reference Division and Palgrave Publishers Ltd (formerly Macmillan Press Ltd). ISBN 978-1-349-39753-2 ISBN 978-0-230-59907-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230599079 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Williams,Geoffrey Lee. NATO and the transatlantic alliance in the 21st century : the twenty-year crisis / Geoffrey Lee Williams and Barkley Jared Jones. p.cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1.North Atlantic Treaty Organization.2.Security, International.3.World politics—1989– I.Jones,Barkley Jared.II.Title. UA646.3 .W56 2000 355'.031091821—dc21 00–053062 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 To Janice and Randa for their support and forbearance during the lengthy period of research This page intentionally left blank Contents Preface ix Acknowledgements xi ListofAbbreviations xii IntroductionandPrologue:TheEndofTotalWar? 1 1 TheArtofDefencePlanning 15 2 TheEuropeanDefenceandSecurityDebate: theLastFiftyYears 28 3 TheOriginsandDevelopmentofAtlanticism 49 4 Neo-Atlanticism:RenewingtheRelationship 61 5 TheDeclineoftheWesternEuropeanUnion 69 6 NATO’sExpansion:theEndortheBeginningof CollectiveDefence? 80 7 CollectiveSecurityorCollectiveDefence? 87 8 NATO:theDrivingForcesandPredeterminedElements 97 9 NATO:post-GaullistRealismandtheRealityofAlliance 108 10 FrenchDefenceFirmsinTransition 118 11 Britain’sDefenceDiversificationDilemma 129 12 Germany’sUniqueOpportunity:Converting aTwo-headedMonster 142 13 TheUSPresidentandDefencePriorities 152 14 LeadershipforDefenceTransition? 160 15 PeaceAdvocatesandTradeUnions:Defence Restructuring’sUnlikelyAlliance 164 16 DefendingConversioninCongressduringthe Clinton–GoreAdministration 177 vii viii Contents 17 TheFutureofInternationalTerrorism: theScourgeofthe21stCentury? 187 18 Conclusions:TowardsaMultipolarand Multi-NuclearWorld 199 Notes 214 Index 242 Preface TheNorthAtlanticAllianceisabouttoentera20-yearcrisisfromwhich itislikelytoemergegreatlystrengthenedandwitharenewedmandate forthenext50years.TheperiodofcrisiswillcentreonNATO’srelation- shipwithRussia,theissuesarisingfromtheenlargementofNATOand theentryofcountrieswhosestrategicpositionwillremainvulnerableto any real recrudescence of Russian power over the next two decades. Problems also will arisefor theAlliancein respect to itslong-term role intheBalkansintheaftermathofNATO’senforcementroleinKosovo. ItisclearthatNATOwillneedtoexpostulateanewdoctrineofhuman- itarianinterventionconsistentwiththenormsofinternationallaw. The Alliance will need to examine carefully the level of its defence expenditure and acquire high intensity capabilities for the modern battlefieldwhichwillseetheendtotheconscriptarmiesofthepast.It is a pressing matter to close the widening gap between the USA and NATO’s European members states. NATO’s new strategic concept calls for highly mobile, versatile multinational units which, if properly equipped and deployed, will constitute a genuine military aggrandise- ment.Thebiggestcrisiscentresonthelong-termrelationship between NATOandtheEUinrespectofsecurityanddefenceresponsibilities.As wegotoprint,KosovoprovidedclearevidenceofthecrisisinEuropean securityanddefenceaffairs.IntheairduringOperationAlliedForce,NATO nearly became a virtual alliance with the US providing 80 per cent of the firepower; its allies lacked reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft, precision-guided and long-range weapons and even bombs. Although Europehasnearly2millionmenandwomenunderarmscomparedto America’s 1.45 million, the European members of NATO could not have copedwiththeenforcementoperationinKosovowithout crucial Americanintervention.ThissituationconstitutesthecrisisforNATO.If thesedefectsarenotremoved,NATOwillbecomeavirtualallianceand politicalclubthatceasestobeamilitaryalliancecapableofdefendingthe interestsofitsmembersandincreasinglyincapableofpowerprojection tothecrisisspotsbeyonditsterritorialintegrity. GeoffreyLeeWilliams BarkleyJaredJones Cambridge ix