T 6 C 1 0 E 2 J y O ul J R , P o y k G o N T , I n T o L d U n o S L N , s O ri a C P R E D I E N STATUS REPORT 2016 H C S E L C Y Mycle Schneider M BY Antony Froggatt A Julie Hazemann WITH Ian Fairlie Tadahiro Katsuta Fulcieri Maltini M.V. Ramana Tomas Kåberger FOREWORD The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016 By Mycle Schneider Independent Consultant, Paris, France Project Coordinator and Lead Author Antony Froggatt Independent Consultant, London, U.K. Lead Author With Julie Hazemann Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, France Documentary Research, Modeling and Graphic Design Tadahiro Katsuta Associate Professor, School of Law, Meiji University, Tokyo, Japan Contributing Author M.V. Ramana Nuclear Futures Laboratory & Program on Science and Global Security Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, U.S. Contributing Author Special Contributions Ian Fairlie Independent Consultant on Radioactivity in the Environment, London, U.K. Fulcieri Maltini Independent Consultant on Nuclear Power, Alairac, France Additional Contributions Steve Thomas Professor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University, U.K. Paris, London, Tokyo, July 2016 © A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project Cover page and layout created by Noëlle Papay Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 1 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordinator wishes to thank Antony Froggatt, all-time key contributor to this project. Many thanks also to contributing authors Tadahiro Katsuta and M.V. Ramana for their renewed professional contributions. Pleasure to work with you. Ian Fairlie and Fulcieri Maltini provided exceptional contributions this year. Thank you very much. A special thanks goes out to Tomas Kåberger, who contributed a thoughtful foreword under hardly acceptable time constraints. A big chunk of the success of this project is due to its visibility through the graphic illustrations based on the project database designed and maintained by data engineer Julie Hazemann. And there is more to come in the near future. Nina Schneider put her excellent proof-reading and formatting skills to work and contributed fundamental research for one of the chapters. Thank you both. We were lucky to have Max Schneider assist with Japanese language issues. Thank you. Many other people have contributed pieces of work to make this project possible and bring it to the current standard. These include in particular Shaun Burnie, who contributed more than invaluable research and Benoît Rozel, who provided terrific support on data management. The report has greatly benefitted from partial or full proof-reading, editing suggestions and comments by Shaun Burnie, Nils Epprecht, Eloi Glorieux, Jan Haverkamp, Yuri Hiranuma, Iriyna Holovko, Amory B. Lovins, Jean-Marc Nollet, Olexi Pasyuk, Walt Patterson, Nina Schneider, Shawn-Patrick Stensil, Yury Urbansky and several anonymous reviewers. Thank you all. The authors wish to thank in particular Rebecca Bertram, Rebecca Harms, Amory B. Lovins, Matthew McKinzie and Sabine von Stockar, for their durable and enthusiastic support of this project. And everybody involved is grateful to the MacArthur Foundation, Natural Resources Defense Council, Heinrich Böll Foundation North America, the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament, and the Swiss Renewable Energy Foundation for their generous support for this project. A big thank-you to Philippe Rivière for his solid, reliable work on the website and his generous assistance at any time of the day as well as to Noëlle Papay who created the special cover page and the new layout (again) for this report. NOTE This report contains a very large amount of factual and numerical data. While we do our utmost to verify and double-check, nobody is perfect. The authors are always grateful for corrections and suggested improvements. LEAD AUTHORS’ CONTACT INFORMATION Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt 45, Allée des deux cèdres 53a Neville Road 91210 Draveil (Paris) London N16 8SW France United Kingdom Ph: +33-1-69 83 23 79 Ph: +44-79 68 80 52 99 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016 © 2016 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC) Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 2 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ............................................................................................................................. 8 Executive Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................. 10 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 18 General Overview Worldwide ............................................................................................ 19 The Role of Nuclear Power .......................................................................................................... 19 Operation, Power Generation, Age Distribution .......................................................................... 22 Overview of Current New Build ................................................................................................... 27 Construction Times ............................................................................................................. 29 Construction Times of Reactors Currently Under Construction ..................................................... 29 Construction Times of Past and Currently Operating Reactors ..................................................... 29 Construction Starts and Cancellations ................................................................................ 31 Operating Age .................................................................................................................... 33 Lifetime Projections ........................................................................................................... 36 Potential Newcomer Countries ........................................................................................... 39 Under Construction ..................................................................................................................... 40 Contracts Signed or in Advanced Development ............................................................................ 43 “Committed Plans” ..................................................................................................................... 49 “Well Developed Plans” ............................................................................................................... 54 Conclusion on Potential Newcomer Countries ............................................................................. 58 Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdown? ............................................................................ 60 Nuclear Builders and Vendors ...................................................................................................... 71 Conclusion on Corporate Finances ............................................................................................... 74 Chernobyl+30 Status Report ............................................................................................... 75 General Overview of the Chernobyl Site ...................................................................................... 75 Sequence and Origin of the Accident on 26 April 1986 ................................................................. 76 Onsite Challenges ................................................................................................................ 76 Dispersion of Radioactivity .......................................................................................................... 78 Populations Affected ................................................................................................................... 80 Health Impacts ............................................................................................................................ 81 The “Sarcophagus” ...................................................................................................................... 83 G-7 Support of Shutdown of RMBK and VVER 440-230 Reactors .................................................. 83 MMyyccllee SScchhnneeiiddeerr,, AAnnttoonnyy FFrrooggggaatttt eett aall.. 33 WWoorrlldd NNuucclleeaarr IInndduussttrryy SSttaattuuss RReeppoorrtt 22001166 EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spent Fuel Storage Program ................................................. 84 Liquid Radioactive Wastes Treatment Plant ................................................................................. 86 Industrial Complex on Solid Radioactive Wastes Management .................................................... 86 Shelter Implementation Plan/New Safe Confinement, , ............................................................... 87 Fukushima+5 Status Report ................................................................................................ 89 Onsite Challenges, ....................................................................................................................... 89 Decommissioning Plan ............................................................................................................... 89 Current Status of Each Reactor .................................................................................................. 89 Contaminated Water Management ........................................................................................... 90 Current status of workers ........................................................................................................... 92 Offsite Challenges ........................................................................................................................ 93 Current Status of Evacuation ...................................................................................................... 93 Radiation Exposure and Health Effects ...................................................................................... 95 Food and Environmental Contamination ................................................................................... 96 Costs ........................................................................................................................................... 98 Fukushima vs. Chernobyl .................................................................................................... 99 Source Term .............................................................................................................................. 101 Radiation Exposures .................................................................................................................. 101 Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy Deployment ........................................................... 103 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 103 Investment ................................................................................................................................ 105 Installed Capacity ...................................................................................................................... 107 Electricity Generation ................................................................................................................ 108 Status and Trends in China, the EU, India, and the U.S. .............................................................. 109 Conclusion on Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energies ............................................................... 115 Annexes ........................................................................................................................... 116 Annex 1: Overview by Region and Country ....................................................................... 117 Africa ......................................................................................................................................... 117 The Americas ............................................................................................................................. 119 United States Focus ................................................................................................................... 125 Struggling Reactors ................................................................................................................... 128 New Reactor Projects—Delayed, Suspended, Cancelled ......................................................... 136 Pending Combined Operating License Applications (COLA) ..................................................... 138 MMyyccllee SScchhnneeiiddeerr,, AAnnttoonnyy FFrrooggggaatttt eett a all.. 4 4 W Woorrlldd N Nuucclleeaarr I nIndduussttrryy S Sttaattuuss R Reeppoorrtt 2 2001166 Asia ........................................................................................................................................... 138 China Focus ............................................................................................................................... 138 Japan Focus ............................................................................................................................... 148 NRA Nuclear Safety Review ...................................................................................................... 155 Restart Prospects ...................................................................................................................... 160 New-build Projects ................................................................................................................... 161 European Union (EU28) and Switzerland .................................................................................... 169 Western Europe ............................................................................................................................... 171 Belgium Focus ........................................................................................................................... 172 France Focus .............................................................................................................................. 178 Central and Eastern Europe ............................................................................................................. 199 Former Soviet Union .................................................................................................................. 207 Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor Status ....................................................................... 214 Annex 3 : Fukushima—Radioactive Contamination and Current Evacuation Zones ........... 217 Annex 4: Definition of Credit Rating by the Main Agencies ............................................... 219 Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensions in the U.S. ............................................................ 220 Annex 6: About the Authors ............................................................................................. 223 Annex 7: Abbreviations .................................................................................................... 226 Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in the World ................................................................ 232 Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the World “Under Construction” ......................................... 234 MMyyccllee SScchhnneeiiddeerr,, AAnnttoonnyy FFrrooggggaatttt eett aall.. 5 5 W Woorrlldd N Nuucclleeaarr I nIndduussttrryy S Sttaattuuss R Reeppoorrtt 2 2001166 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World ...................................................................................... 20 Figure 2: Annual Nuclear Power Generation by Country and Historic Maximum .............................................. 21 Figure 3: Annual Nuclear Share in Electricity Mix by Country and Historic Maximum ....................................... 21 Figure 4: Nuclear Power Reactor Grid Connections and Shutdowns, 1954-2016 ............................................... 23 Figure 5: Nuclear Power Reactor Grid Connections and Shutdowns, 1954-2016 ............................................... 23 Figure 6: Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program 1963–2016 ................................................................ 24 Figure 7: World Nuclear Reactor Fleet, 1954–2016 .......................................................................................... 26 Figure 8: Nuclear Reactors Under Construction ................................................................................................ 27 Figure 9: Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954–1 July 2016 .................................................. 30 Figure 10: Construction Starts in the World 1951 – 1 July 2016 ........................................................................ 31 Figure 11: Construction Starts in the World/China 1951–1 July 2016 ............................................................... 32 Figure 12: 92 Cancelled or Suspended Reactor Constructions 1977–July 2016 .................................................. 32 Figure 13: Age Distribution of Operating Nuclear Power Reactors ................................................................... 34 Figure 14: Age Distribution of Operating Reactors in the World ....................................................................... 35 Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164 Shut Down Nuclear Power Reactors ........................................................... 36 Figure 16: Average Age Profile of Shut Down Nuclear Power Reactors ............................................................. 36 Figure 17: The 40-Year Lifetime Projection (not including LTOs) ....................................................................... 37 Figure 18: The PLEX Projection (not including LTOs) ......................................................................................... 38 Figure 19: Forty-Year Lifetime Projection versus PLEX Projection ..................................................................... 38 Figure 20: EDF Share Price Development 2006–2016 ....................................................................................... 64 Figure 21: RWE (DE) Share Price Development 2006–2016 ............................................................................... 66 Figure 22: Share Price Development of European Power Companies ............................................................... 67 Figure 23: Share Price Development of Asian Power Companies ...................................................................... 69 Figure 24: CGN Co Ltd. (China) Share Price Development Since First Listing ..................................................... 70 Figure 25: Exelon (US) Share Price Development 2006-2016 ............................................................................ 71 Figure 26: AREVA Share Price Development 2006-2016 ................................................................................... 72 Figure 27: Graveyard of Abandoned Highly Contaminated Trucks and Helicopters .......................................... 77 Figure 28: Cesium-137 Concentrations in Europe in 1996 ................................................................................. 79 Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concentrations in Air Over Europe in May 1986 ................................................... 80 Figure 30: Cross Section of the "Sarcophagus" ................................................................................................. 83 Figure 31: The New Safe Confinement at Chernobyl ........................................................................................ 88 Figure 32 : Paris Agreement, National Pledges and Nuclear Power ................................................................ 104 Figure 33: Global Investment Decisions in Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004–15 ..................................... 105 Figure 34: Wind, Solar and Nuclear, Capacity Increases in the World 2000–2015 ........................................... 107 Figure 35: Global Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear 1997-2015 ......................................... 108 Figure 36: Installed Capacity in China from Wind, Solar and Nuclear 2000–2015 ............................................ 109 Figure 37: Electricity Production in China from Nuclear, Wind and Solar 2000-2015 ....................................... 110 Figure 38: Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU in 2015 ................................... 111 Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, Solar and Wind Power Production Since Signing of the Kyoto Protocol ..... 112 Figure 40: Solar, Wind and Nuclear Production in India 2000-2015 ................................................................ 113 Figure 41: Age of U.S. Nuclear Fleet ............................................................................................................... 125 Figure 42: Age Distribution of the Japanese Nuclear Fleet ............................................................................. 149 Figure 43: Electricity Generation in Japan by Source 2006-2015 ..................................................................... 153 Figure 44: Nuclear Reactors Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28, 1956–2016 .............................................. 169 Figure 45: Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28, 1956–2016 .......................................... 170 Figure 46: Age Pyramid of the 127 Nuclear Reactors Operated in the EU28 ................................................... 170 Figure 47: Age Distribution of the EU28 Reactor Fleet .................................................................................... 171 Figure 48: Load Factors of Belgian Nuclear Reactors ...................................................................................... 172 Figure 49: Age Distribution of Belgian Nuclear Fleet ...................................................................................... 173 Figure 50: Age Distribution of French Nuclear Fleet ....................................................................................... 179 MMyyccllee SScchhnneeiiddeerr,, AAnnttoonnyy FFrrooggggaatttt eett aall.. 66 WWoorrlldd NNuucclleeaarr IInndduussttrryy SSttaattuuss RReeppoorrtt 22001166 Figure 51: Age of the Swiss Nuclear Fleet ....................................................................................................... 197 Figure 52: Fukushima: Radioactive Contamination and Current Evacuation Zones ......................................... 217 TABLE OF TABLES Table 1: Nuclear Reactors “Under Construction” ............................................................................................. 28 Table 2: Reactor Construction Times 2006–2016 ............................................................................................. 30 Table 3: Construction Schedules for Nuclear Power in Potential Newcomer Countries .................................... 59 Table 4: Standard and Poor’s Long-Term Credit Rating of Major European Utilities ......................................... 63 Table 5: Standard and Poor’s Long-Term Credit Rating of Major Nuclear Vendors ........................................... 73 Table 6: Populations Exposed to Chernobyl Fallout: Average Effective Dose .................................................... 81 Table 7: Suicides Related to the Great East Japan Earthquake (number of persons) ......................................... 94 Table 8: Confirmed or Suspected Thyroid Cancer Cases and Effective External Dose Estimates ........................ 95 Table 9 : Compensation cost ............................................................................................................................ 98 Table 10 : Comparison of Selected Parameters of the Chernobyl and Fukushima Accidents ........................... 100 Table 11 : Comparison of Atmospheric Releases from Nuclear Accidents ....................................................... 101 Table 12: Average Doses in Fukushima and Chernobyl (Highest Contaminated Areas) ................................... 102 Table 13 : Collective Doses from Fukushima and Chernobyl Accidents (over 80 years) ................................... 102 Table 14: Top 10 Countries for Renewable Energy Investment 2013–2015 ..................................................... 106 Table 15: Japanese Reactors Officially Closed ................................................................................................ 150 Table 16: Closure Dates for Belgian Nuclear Reactors 2022–2025 .................................................................. 174 Table 17: Legal Closure Dates for German Nuclear Reactors 2011-2022 ......................................................... 188 Table 18 : Japanese Nuclear Reactor Status ................................................................................................... 214 Table 19: Submitted and Expected Applications for Lifetime Extensions of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants ........... 220 Table 20: Status of Nuclear Power in the World ............................................................................................ 232 Table 21: Nuclear Reactors in the World "Under Construction" ..................................................................... 234 MMyyccllee SScchhnneeiiddeerr,, AAnnttoonnyy FFrrooggggaatttt eett aall.. 77 WWoorrlldd NNuucclleeaarr IInndduussttrryy SSttaattuuss RReeppoorrtt 22001166 Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 2 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016 Foreword by Tomas Kåberger1 The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) is the best compilation of data, trends and facts about the nuclear industry available. This is all the more impressive considering the competition from resource-rich commercial or intergovernmental institutions. It is free from the political constraints, e. g. those leading the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the false claim there are more than 40 reactors operating in Japan. Nor does it suffer from the anti-nuclear exaggerations or pro-nuclear enthusiasm so often tainting descriptions of this industry’s status. This year, special chapters on Chernobyl and Fukushima confirm that nuclear accidents bear not only significant human and environmental but also economic risks. These, however, are risks the nuclear industry has been sheltered from by political decisions limiting their liability. The WNISR this year is more about a risk the industry will not easily be protected from: The economic and financial risks from nuclear power being irreversibly out-competed by renewable power. The year 2015 seems to be the best year for the nuclear industry in the last quarter of a century. A record 10 new reactors with a total capacity of over 9 GW were put into operation. This was less than new solar and less than wind capacity, which increased five and six times as much respectively. In actual electricity produced, nuclear increased by 31 TWh, while fossil fuels based electricity generation decreased. The main reason why fossil fuels decreased was the expansion in renewable power generation, an increase of more than 250 TWh compared to 2014, seven times more than the modest nuclear increase. The development of installations and generation is a result of renewable energy cost reductions. As we may also read in this report, nuclear construction is not only costly, it is often more costly, and requires more time, than envisioned when investment decisions were taken. Solar and wind, on the other hand, have come down in price to an extent that new wind and solar are often providing new generation that is clearly cheaper than new nuclear power. Even more challenging to the nuclear industry is the way renewables are bringing down electricity prices in mature industrial countries to the extent that an increasing number of reactors operate with economic losses despite producing electricity as planned. But a foreword is not meant to be another summary. My appreciation of the report is already clearly stated. Let me use the final paragraphs on what implications may follow from the facts laid out in this report: First: A nuclear industry under economic stress may become an even more dangerous industry. Owners do what they can to reduce operating costs to avoid making economic loss. Reduce staff, reduce maintenance, and reduce any monitoring and inspection that may be avoided. While a stated ambition of “safety first” and demands of safety authorities will be heard, the conflict is always there and reduced margins of safety may prove to be mistakes. 1 Tomas Kåberger is Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and Executive Board Chairman of the Renewable Energy Institute in Japan. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 8 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016 Secondly: The economic losses of nuclear come as fossil fuel based electricity generation is also suffering under climate protection policies and competition from less costly renewable power. The incumbent power companies are often loosing net cash-flow as well as asset values. As a result, many power companies are downgraded by credit-rating agencies and their very existence threatened. Electric power companies' ability to actually manage the back-end cost of the nuclear industry is increasingly uncertain. As the estimates of these costs become more important, and receive attention they tend to grow. Reading the WNISR2016, a premonition appears of what may lay ahead of this industry and the 31 governments hosting it. Let us hope WNISR will help many people understand the situation and contribute to responsible regulation and management of the industry in the critical period ahead of us. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 9 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016