More Scottish than British TheComparativeTerritorialPoliticsSeries Serieseditors:CharlieJeffery,ProfessorofPolitics,SchoolofSocialandPoliticalScience, UniversityofEdinburgh,UK,andMichaelKeating,ProfessorofPolitics,Universityof Aberdeen,UK. Territorialpoliticsisoneofthemostdynamicareasincontemporarypoliticalscience. Devolution,regionalgovernmentandfederalreformhavereshapedthearchitectureof governmentatsub-stateandtransnationallevels,withprofoundimplicationsforpub- lic policy, political competition, democracy and the nature of political community. Important policy fields such as health, education, agriculture, environment and eco- nomicdevelopmentaremanagedatnewspatiallevels.Regions,statelessnationsand metropolitanareashavebecomepoliticalarenas,contestedbyoldandnewpoliticalpar- tiesandinterestgroups.Allofthisisshapedbytransnationalintegrationandtherise ofsupranationalandinternationalbodiesliketheEuropeanUnion,theNorthAmerican FreeTradeAreaandtheWorldTradeOrganization. TheComparativeTerritorialPoliticsseriesbringstogethermonographs,editedcollections and area studies that further scholarship in the field of territorial politics and pol- icy, decentralization, federalism and regionalism. The series aims to be an outlet for innovativeresearchinthisarea,groundedinpoliticalscience,politicalgeography,law, internationalrelationsandsociology. Titlesinclude: ChristopherCarman,RobertJohnsandJamesMitchell MORESCOTTISHTHANBRITISH The2011ScottishParliamentElection Alain-GGagnonandMichaelKeating(editors) POLITICALAUTONOMYANDDIVIDEDSOCIETIES ImaginingDemocraticAlternativesinComplexSettings MichelSeymourandAlain-GGagnon(editors) MULTINATIONALFEDERALISM ProblemsandProspects IrinaStefuriuc GOVERNMENTFORMATIONINMULTI-LEVELSETTINGS PartyStrategyandInstitutionalConstraints TheComparativeTerritorialPoliticsseries SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0230–29293–2 (outsideNorthAmericaonly) Youcanreceivefuturetitlesinthisseriesastheyarepublishedbyplacingastanding order.Pleasecontactyourbookselleror,incaseofdifficulty,writetousattheaddress belowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesandtheISBNquotedabove. CustomerServicesDepartment,MacmillanDistributionLtd,Houndmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS,England More Scottish than British The 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Christopher Carman ProfessorofPolitics,UniversityofGlasgow,UK Robert Johns SeniorLecturerinPolitics,UniversityofEssex,UK James Mitchell ProfessorofPublicPolicy,UniversityofEdinburgh,UK ©ChristopherCarman,RobertJohnsandJamesMitchell2014 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-02369-8 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorshaveassertedtheirrightstobeidentifiedastheauthorsofthis workinaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2014by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN 978-1-349-43828-0 ISBN 978-1-137-02370-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137023704 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Carman,ChristopherJ. MoreScottishthanBritish:the2011ScottishParliamentelection/ ChristopherCarman,RobertJohns,JamesMitchell. pages cm Summary:“Withtheaidofthemostextensiveandcomprehensivesurveydata extractedfromvotersduringthe2011ScottishGeneral,thisbookanalysesthe reasonsbehindwhytheSNPnotonlyretainedtheirmandatefromthepeopleto governScotlandbutfurthersucceededinwinningaresoundingmajorityinthe ScottishParliament.Intacklingthisoverarchingquestionothercomplexissues arealsoexploredsuchaswhetherapre-occupationwitheventsatWestminster confinedtheScottishElectionstotherealmof‘second-order’elections?What impactthefinancialcrisishadonelectedaparliamentthatinrealityhaslittle economicpower?Thevolumealsohasabroaderappealtodevolved parliamentaryelectionsmorebroadlybyexploringwhatmatterstovoterswhen theycasttheirballotsfortheirnationalparliamentinacomplex,multi-level Politicalsystem.Examiningperformanceevaluations,partyloyaltiesand constitutionalpreferences,theauthorsshowthatScottishelectionsare increasinglyScottishaffairs,wherevotersareconcernedwithgovernment competence–indomesticmattersandinmanagingrelationswith Westminster.”—Providedbypublisher. 1. Scotland.Parliament—Elections,2011. 2. Elections—Scotland. 3. Political parties—Scotland. 4. Scotland—Politicsandgovernment—21stcentury. I. Title. JN1341.C372013 324.9411(cid:2)08612—dc23 2013021790 Contents ListofTablesandFigures vi 1 The2011ScottishElectioninContext 1 2 ResultsandtheSourcesofPartySupport 25 3 PartiesandLeaders 48 4 PerformancePoliticsatHolyrood 78 5 How‘Scottish’WasthisElection? 106 6 PartyChoicein2011 130 Appendix1:The2011ScottishElectionStudy 158 Appendix2:FullResultsofStatistical(Regression)Analyses 160 Notes 169 References 172 Index 180 v Tables and Figures Tables 1.1 ResultsofScottishParliamentelections,1999,2003, 2007and2011 6 1.2 Majoritybuilding1999–2003;2003–2007; 2007–2011 8 1.3 2011CampaignspendinginScottishelections comparedtoWestminster(general)elections,in GBP 19 1.4 2011Partyspendingbyexpenditurecategory 20 1.5 2011Partyspendingbyexpenditurecategoryasa percentageof2007spending 21 2.1 Listvotebydemographicgroup,2011andchange 2007–2011 31 2.2 Listvotebyreligionandreligiosity 31 2.3 Partyvotebyobjectiveandsubjectivesocialclass, columnpercentages 32 2.4 Listvotebynationalidentity,2011(changessince 2007) 36 2.5 Constituencylistshareofthevotebyparty 42 2.6 Votein2011(constituencyandregion)by2007 voteforthepanelrespondents 45 2.7 Constituencyvotein2011byrecalled2010general electionvote 46 3.1 Partisanship(identification,leaningandcombined) in2007and2011 54 3.2 Pre-electionpartyidentificationandregionalvote 55 3.3 Meanpartyratingson0–10scale:(i)allrespondents (ii)bypartyidentification 58 3.4 Partyratingsonfivefacetsofpartyimage:(i)all respondents(ii)undecidedvoters 61 3.5 Perceptionsofcampaigntonebyparty,2011and 2007 64 vi ListofTablesandFigures vii 3.6 Perceivedbestandworstdebateperformers:(i)all watchers(ii)bypartyidentification 68 3.7 Ratingsofpartyleadersonlike-dislikescalebyall respondentsandnon-identifiers 70 4.1 Evaluationsofgoverningpartyperformance: ScottishandWestminstergovernments 82 4.2 Evaluationsofoutcomesinfourkeyissueareas 84 4.3 Attributionsofresponsibilityforoutcomesinfour issueareasbyevaluations 85 4.4 Open-ended‘mostimportantissue’responses,2007 and2011 87 4.5 Partybestabletohandleeach‘mostimportant issue’,rowpercentages 89 4.6 Distributionofvoters’opinionsonsixpolicyissues 92 4.7 Perceptionofparties’commitmenttodefending (i)Scotlandagainstthecuts;(ii)Scottishinterestsin general 96 4.8 Twomeasuresofconstitutionalpreferenceat Scottishelectionssince1999 99 4.9 Perceivedconstitutionalstancesandcorrelations withperceivedcommitmenttoScottishinterests, 2007and2011 103 5.1 Percentagedeemingeachlevel‘mainlyresponsible’ forkeypolicyareas,2007–2011 109 5.2 Percentagedeemingeachlevel‘mainlyresponsible’ foroutcomessince2007 111 5.3 Mostimportantissuefacing:(i)Britain(ii)Scotland 112 5.4 Partybestabletohandleeconomicissuesfacing BritainandScotland(rowpercentages) 113 5.5 Basisforvotingdecision,1999–2011,andby selected‘mostimportantissue’in2011 116 5.6 Regionallistvotebyreportedmainfocus,2011and 2007 117 5.7 Responsestomulti-levelpartyidentification questions,columnpercentages 122 5.8 ScottishpartyidentificationconditionalonUK partyidentification,columnpercentages 123 5.9 UKpartyidentificationconditionalonScottish partyidentification,columnpercentages 123 viii ListofTablesandFigures 5.10 Partysupportcombiningpost-electionexperimental halves,rowpercentages 126 6.1 Variableswithstatisticallysignificanteffectsin multinomiallogitoflistvote 134 A22.1 Multinomiallogitofregionalpartychoiceon demographiccharacteristics(forFigure2.1) 161 A23.1 OLSregressionsofpartylike/dislike(0–10scale)on partyimageassessments,controllingforparty identification(forFigure3.1) 162 A23.2 Multinomiallogitofregionalpartychoiceonleader evaluationsanddemographiccharacteristics(for Figure3.2) 163 A24.1 Structuralmodelestimates(forFigure4.2) 165 A26.1 Multinomiallogitofregionalpartychoiceon attitudinalanddemographicpredictors (forFigure6.1) 166 Figures 1.1 Turnout,1997–2011 10 1.2 Holyroodlistvotingintention,January2009–May 2011 14 2.1 Multinomiallogisticregressionoflistvoteon socio-demographicpredictors 39 2.2 DeviationfromproportionalityandScottish Labour’sshareofthevote,1945–2010UKelections 41 2.3 NumberofconstituencyandregionMSPselectedby party,1999–2011 43 3.1 Impact(standardizedregressioncoefficients)of imagevariablesonpartylike-dislikeratings 63 3.2 Meaneffectsofleadershipevaluationsonparty choice 74 4.1 Voterself-placementsandmeanpartyplacements ontwoissuescales 94 4.2 StructuralmodelpredictingattitudestotheSNPin 2011(N =559) 100 5.1 Multi-levelpartyidentificationexperiment 125 5.2 Multi-levelpartyidentificationexperiment 125 ListofTablesandFigures ix 6.1 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof votingSNP 138 6.2 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof votingLabour 141 6.3 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof votingConservative 143 6.4 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof votingLiberalDemocrat 145