Springer Tracts on Transportation and Traffic Guido Gentile Klaus Noekel Editors Modelling Public Transport Passenger Flows in the Era of Intelligent Transport Systems COST Action TU1004 (TransITS) fi Springer Tracts on Transportation and Traf c Volume 10 Series editor Roger P. Roess, New York University Polytechnic School of Engineering, New York, USA e-mail: [email protected] About this Series The book series “Springer Tracts on Transportation and Traffic” (STTT) publishes currentandhistoricalinsightsandnewdevelopmentsinthefieldsofTransportation and Traffic research. The intent is to cover all the technical contents, applications, and multidisciplinary aspects of Transportation and Traffic, as well as the meth- odologiesbehindthem.Theobjectiveofthebookseriesistopublishmonographs, handbooks, selected contributions from specialized conferences and workshops, and textbooks, rapidly and informally but with a high quality. 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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11059 Guido Gentile Klaus Noekel (cid:129) Editors Modelling Public Transport Passenger Flows in the Era of Intelligent Transport Systems COST Action TU1004 (TransITS) 123 Editors GuidoGentile KlausNoekel Sapienza University PTVGroup Rome Karlsruhe Italy Germany ISSN 2194-8119 ISSN 2194-8127 (electronic) SpringerTracts onTransportation andTraffic ISBN978-3-319-25080-9 ISBN978-3-319-25082-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-25082-3 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015953814 SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2016 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerlandispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia (www.springer.com) Contents Part I Public Transport in the Era of ITS - Francesco Viti 1 Public Transport in the Era of ITS: The Role of Public Transport in Sustainable Cities and Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Xavier Roselló, Anders Langeland and Francesco Viti 1.1 Accessibility and Social Exclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.2 City Structure and Its Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.2.1 Urban Sprawl and Socio-economic Transformations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.2.2 Consequences of Expansion for the Transport System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.3 Energy Consumption and Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.3.1 Beyond Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.3.2 Primary Energy and Fossil Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.4 Externalities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.4.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.4.2 Other Pollutant Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.4.3 Noise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.4.4 Congestion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.4.5 Consumption of Public Space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.4.6 Safety and Security. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.5 Unit Mobility Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.6 Mobility and Public Transport in European Metropolitan Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.6.1 The EMTA Association. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.6.2 Some Mobility Indicators in Metropolitans Areas . . . . 20 1.6.3 Public Transport Subsidies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.7 The Future of Transport and Mobility in Europe: Smart Cities and Communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.8 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 v vi Contents 2 Public Transport in the Era of ITS: Forms of Public Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Kjell Jansson, Ingmar Andreasson and Karl Kottenhoff 2.1 Organisation and Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.1.1 Regulation Versus Deregulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.1.2 Integration Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.1.3 Public Transport Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.1.4 Multimodal Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.2 Vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.2.1 Trains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.2.2 Buses and Coaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.2.3 Aircrafts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.3 Infrastructures and Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.3.1 Right of Way. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 2.3.2 Nodes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 2.3.3 Topological Structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.4 Service Performances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.4.1 Service and Stop Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.4.2 Systems Speed—Boarding, Alighting and Travel Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 2.4.3 Reliability, Punctuality, Regularity and Robustness . . . 64 2.5 Conventional and Unconventional Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 2.5.1 Complementary Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 2.5.2 High-Level Bus and Rail-Like Systems . . . . . . . . . . . 68 2.5.3 Demand-Responsive Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 2.5.4 Paratransit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 2.6 Automation and New Transport Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 2.6.1 Advanced Control for Rail Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 2.6.2 Automated Rail and Metro Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 2.6.3 Cable-Propelled Transport (CPT). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 2.6.4 Personal Rapid Transit (PRT). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 2.6.5 Automated Road Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 2.7 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 3 Public Transport in the Era of ITS: ITS Technologies for Public Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Andrés Monzón, Sara Hernandez, Andrés García Martínez, Ioannis Kaparias and Francesco Viti 3.1 ITS Solutions for Fleet Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 3.1.1 Infomobility Tools for Sustainable Fleet Management (Craiova, Romania) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 3.1.2 Monitoring and Planning of Public Transport Systems (San Sebastian, Spain). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Contents vii 3.1.3 CCTV Monitoring System on Public Transport for Security Purposes (Lodz, Poland). . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 3.1.4 Consumption Monitoring and Ecodriving Training (Forlì–Cesena, Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.2 Integrated Management of Traffic and Public Transport Prioritisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 3.2.1 Transit Signal Priority . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 3.2.2 Bus Priority System (Toulouse, France). . . . . . . . . . . 95 3.2.3 Revolutionised Public Transport with Dedicated Bus–Tram Lane (Warsaw, Poland) . . . 96 3.2.4 Bus Priority, the “Greenways Scheme” (Edinburgh, Scotland) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 3.2.5 Speed Advisory Based on Signal Phase and Time (SPaT) Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3 Intermodal Services Coordination and Interchange Facilities. . . 98 3.3.1 Integrated Public Transport Guide (Almada, Portugal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 3.3.2 The Urban Mobility Website: Information About Public Transport on Site (Sofia, Bulgaria). . . . . 101 3.3.3 Call-a-Bike: Public Bicycles in Germany . . . . . . . . . . 101 3.3.4 Multimodal Travel Planners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 3.4 Ticketing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 3.4.1 On-Street Ticket Vending Machines (Norwich, UK). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 3.4.2 Development and Upgrade of the E-Ticketing System (Brescia, Italy). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 3.4.3 The Viva Smart Card System (Lisbon, Portugal). . . . . 106 3.4.4 The Use of Ticket Validation for Transit Planning Purposes (Barcelona, Spain). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 3.4.5 Using Ticketing Data for Improving Transit Planning and Scheduling Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 3.5 Real-Time Information Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 3.5.1 Real-Time Countdown System (London, UK). . . . . . . 110 3.5.2 Real-Time Passenger Information at Bus Stops (Lille Métropole, France). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 3.5.3 VAO, Traffic Information Austria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 3.5.4 Two-Way ICT Communications Through Crowdsourcing Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 3.6 Development and Maturity Level of ITS in Europe. . . . . . . . . 114 3.6.1 Broad Overview of the State of Public Transport ITS Deployment in Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 3.6.2 More Detailed Insight of Public Transport ITS Deployment in Selected European Cities . . . . . . . . . . 120 viii Contents 3.6.3 Discussion and Outlook of Public Transport ITS Maturity and Deployment in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 3.7 Including ITS Factors in Transit Assignment . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 3.8 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Part II From Transit Systems to Models - Klaus Noekel 4 From Transit Systems to Models: Purpose of Modelling. . . . . . . . 131 Markus Friedrich, Fabien Leurent, Irina Jackiva, Valentina Fini and Sebastián Raveau 4.1 The Planning Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 4.1.1 States and Phases of a Transport Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 4.1.2 Public Transport Design. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 4.1.3 Scenario Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 4.1.4 Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 4.1.5 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 158 4.2 Travel Demand Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 4.2.1 Basic Definitions and Notations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 4.2.2 Models for Transport Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 4.2.3 Characteristics of Travel Demand Models . . . . . . . . . 162 4.2.4 Model Specification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 4.2.5 Basic Model Formulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 4.2.6 The Process for Model Calibration and Validation. . . . 177 4.2.7 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 179 4.3 Psychological Factors Affecting Passenger Behaviour . . . . . . . 179 4.3.1 Some Basic Notions About Psychology. . . . . . . . . . . 179 4.3.2 Prospect Theory: A Descriptive Approach to Decision-Making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 4.3.3 Application of Prospect Theory in the Transportation Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 4.3.4 Modelling Human Behaviour: Transtheoretical Model of Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 4.3.5 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 197 4.4 Discrete Choice Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 4.4.1 The Logit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 4.4.2 The Nested Logit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 4.4.3 The Mixed Logit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 4.4.4 Kirchhoff Model and Box–Cox Model. . . . . . . . . . . . 209 4.4.5 Model Estimation and Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 4.4.6 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 214 4.5 Mode and Route Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 4.5.1 Factors that Influence Mode and Route Choices . . . . . 215 4.5.2 Route Choice Set Generation Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Contents ix 4.5.3 Route Choice Models with Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . 218 4.5.4 Urban Case Study: Santiago de Chile Transit System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 4.5.5 Long-Distance Case Study: Stockholm Regional Buses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 4.5.6 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 230 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 5 From Transit Systems to Models: Data Representation and Collection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Klaus Noekel, Guido Gentile, Efthia Nathanail and Achille Fonzone 5.1 Input: Demand and Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 5.1.1 Travel Demand and Its Segmentation. . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 5.1.2 Transport Network and Transit Services. . . . . . . . . . . 240 5.1.3 The Example Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 5.1.4 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 252 5.2 Output: Indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 5.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 5.2.2 Purpose of Indicators and Selection Criteria . . . . . . . . 255 5.2.3 Definition of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 5.2.4 Displaying the Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 5.2.5 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 262 5.3 ITS Data for Transit Assignment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 5.3.1 Data from Transit ITS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 5.3.2 ITS and Traditional Data Collection Techniques. . . . . 267 5.3.3 ITS Data Applications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 5.3.4 O–D Matrix Estimation by Traffic Counts . . . . . . . . . 275 5.3.5 Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 5.3.6 Reference Notes and Concluding Remarks. . . . . . . . . 281 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Part III The Theory of Transit Assignment - Guido Gentile 6 The Theory of Transit Assignment: Basic Modelling Frameworks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Guido Gentile, Michael Florian, Younes Hamdouch, Oded Cats and Agostino Nuzzolo 6.1 Formulating and Solving Transit Assignment . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 6.1.1 Schedule-Based Versus Frequency-Based Services and Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 6.1.2 Multiclass Flows and Performances on Multimodal Networks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 6.1.3 Strategies and Hyperpaths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292 6.1.4 Sequential Route Choice and Flow Propagation . . . . . 296