Raúl León · María Jesús Muñoz-Torres Jose M. Moneva (Eds.) Modeling and Simulation 4 in Engineering, Economics 5 2 P and Management I B N L International Conference, MS 2016 Teruel, Spain, July 4–5, 2016 Proceedings 123 Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing 254 Series Editors Wil van der Aalst Eindhoven Technical University, Eindhoven, The Netherlands John Mylopoulos University of Trento, Trento, Italy Michael Rosemann Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia Michael J. Shaw University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA Clemens Szyperski Microsoft Research, Redmond, WA, USA More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/7911 ú ó í ú ñ Ra l Le n Mar a Jes s Mu oz-Torres (cid:129) Jose M. Moneva (Eds.) Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics and Management International Conference, MS 2016 – Teruel, Spain, July 4 5, 2016 Proceedings 123 Editors RaúlLeón Jose M.Moneva Department ofAccounting andFinance Department ofAccounting andFinance University of Zaragoza University of Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza Spain Spain MaríaJesús Muñoz-Torres University Jaume I Castellón dela Plana Spain ISSN 1865-1348 ISSN 1865-1356 (electronic) Lecture Notesin Business Information Processing ISBN 978-3-319-40505-6 ISBN978-3-319-40506-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40506-3 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016941607 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2016 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthe material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynow knownorhereafterdeveloped. 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Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland Preface The Association for the Advancement of Modelling and Simulation Techniques in Enterprises (AMSE) and the University of Zaragoza are pleased to present the main results of the International Conference on Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics,andManagement,heldinTeruel,Spain,July4–5,2016,throughthisbook of proceedings published with Springer in the series Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing. MS2016Teruelwasco-organizedbytheAMSEAssociationandtheUniversityof Zaragoza through the GESES Research Group, with the support of the SoGReS-MF ResearchGroupfromUniversityJaumeI.Itofferedauniqueopportunityforstudents, researchers, and practitioners to present and exchange ideas concerning modelling, simulation,andrelatedtopics,andseehowtheycanbeimplementedintherealworld. In this edition of the MS international conference, we paid special attention to the area of modelling and simulation in business and economic research. The title of the book, Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics and Management, refers toabroadresearchareaandwehavetriedtosystematizetheresultingcollectionintoa reasonable number of cohesive themes. The importance of modelling and simulation techniquesinengineering,business,andeconomicresearchisreflectedthroughseveral contributions related to modelling and simulation in industrial development, finance, accounting, business management, marketing, economics, and politics, among others. Thiscongresshasasmainincentivetheinteractionamongdifferentdisciplinesandthis interactionishelpingtoimprovetheavailability ofmodelsand techniques in business and economic research. The MS 2016 Teruel proceedings comprise 20 papers—with a total of 56 authors from nine countries—selected from 52 submissions. The book is organized according to three general tracks of the congress: Modelling and Simulation in Finance and Accountability, Modelling and Simulation in Business Management and Economics, and Modelling and Simulation in Engineering and Other General Applications. We would like to thank all the contributors, reviewers, plenary speakers, and the scientific and honorary committees for their kind co-operation with MS’2016 Teruel; the Organizing Committee for their support regarding the logistics of the conference; and Ralf Gerstner, Alfred Hofmann, Christine Reis, and Eléonore Samklu (Springer) for their kind advice and help in publishing this volume. Finally,wewouldliketoexpressourgratitudefortheirsupportinthepreparationof thisbooktoSpringerandinparticulartotheeditorsofthebookseriesLectureNotesin Business Information Processing, Wil van der Aalst, John Mylopoulos, Michael Rosemann, Michael J. Shaw, and Clemens Szyperski. July 2016 Raúl León María Jesús Muñoz-Torres Jose M. Moneva Organization Honorary Committee Jaime Gil Aluja President AMSE, Spain Lotfi Zadeh University of Berkeley, USA Organizing Committee Anna M. Gil Lafuente, Spain, Chair Jose M. Moneva, Spain, Chair María Jesús Muñoz Torres, Spain, Chair Raúl Leon Soriano, Spain, Chair César Leonardo Guerrero Luchtenberg, Spain Cristina Ferrer, Spain Eduardo Ortas, Spain Encarna Esteban, Spain Francisco Javier Arroyo Cañada, Spain Inmaculada Plaza, Spain José M. Merigó Lindahl, Chile Juan Pablo Maicas, Spain Juana María Rivera Lirio, Spain María Ángeles Fernández Izquierdo, Spain Scientific Committee Angel A. Juan, Spain Anna M. Gil-Lafuente, Spain Antonio Terceño Gómez, Spain Beatriz Flores Romero, Mexico Carlos Tomás Medrano Sánchez, Spain César Leonardo Guerrero Luchtenberg, Spain Christian Berger-Vachon, France Eduardo Ortas Fredes, Spain Egon Zizmon, Slovenia Elena Escrig Olmedo, Spain Emilio Vizuete Luciano, Spain Federico González Santoyo, Mexico Francesco Carlo Morabito, Italy Gerardo Gabriel Alfaro Calderón, Mexico Idoya Ferrero Ferrero, Spain VIII Organization Inmaculada Plaza, Spain Isabel Saz Gil, Spain Iván García-Magariño García, Spain Jaime Gil Lafuente, Spain Janusz Kacprzyk, Poland José M. Merigó Lindahl, Chile Jose M. Moneva, Spain Jose Miguel Rodríguez Fernandez, Spain Juan Pablo Maicas, Spain Juana María Rivera Lirio, Spain Korkmaz Imanov, Azerbaijan María Ángeles Fernández Izquierdo, Spain Maria Glòria Barberà Mariné, Spain María Jesús Muñoz Torres, Spain Peter Meža, Slovenia Raúl León Soriano, Spain Ronald R. Yager, USA Sabina Scarpellini, Spain Sefa Boria Reverter, Spain Vicente Liern Carrión, Spain Victor Alfaro García, Mexico Victor Krasnoproshin, Belarus Yuriy Kondratenko, Ukraine OOrrggaanniizzaattiioonn IIXX Sponsors Contents Modeling and Simulation in Finance and Accounting A SimILS-Based Methodology for a Portfolio Optimization Problem with Stochastic Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Laura Calvet, Renatas Kizys, Angel A. Juan, and Jesica de Armas The LIBOR Market Model Calibration with Separated Approach . . . . . . . . . 12 María Teresa Casparri, Martín Ezequiel Masci, and Javier García-Fronti Solving Realistic Portfolio Optimization Problems via Metaheuristics: A Survey and an Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Jana Doering, Angel A. Juan, Renatas Kizys, Angels Fito, and Laura Calvet AStructuralEquationModelforAnalyzingtheAssociationBetweenSome Attributes of Earnings Quality and Value Relevance. Results from the Structural Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Cristina Ferrer, Susana Callao, José Ignacio Jarne, and José Antonio Laínez Evolving Improved Neural Network Classifiers for Bankruptcy Prediction by Hybridization of Nature Inspired Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Vasile Georgescu and Florentina Mihaela Apipie Environmental Performance Assessment in the Apparel Industry. A Materiality-Based Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Raúl León, Idoya Ferrero-Ferrero, and María Jesús Muñoz-Torres Mutual Funds Survival in Spain Using Self-Organizing Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Antonio Terceño, Laura Fabregat-Aibar, M. Teresa Sorrosal-Forradellas, and M. Glòria Barberà-Mariné Modeling and Simulation in Business Management and Economy An Estimation of the Individual Illiquidity Risk for the Elderly Spanish Population with Long-Term Care Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Estefania Alaminos, Mercedes Ayuso, and Montserrat Guillen Predicting Probability of Customer Churn in Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Catalina Bolancé, Montserrat Guillen, and Alemar E. Padilla-Barreto