MOBILE BROADBAND TRANSFORMATION LTE TO 5G August 2016 Copyright ©2016 Rysavy Research, LLC. All rights reserved. http://www.rysavy.com Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 4 TRANSFORMATION ................................................................................................... 7 EXPLODING DEMAND ............................................................................................... 9 Smartphones and Tablets ........................................................................................ 9 Application Innovation ........................................................................................... 10 Internet of Things ................................................................................................. 11 Video Streaming ................................................................................................... 11 Cloud Computing .................................................................................................. 12 5G Data Drivers ................................................................................................... 12 Global Mobile Adoption .......................................................................................... 12 THE PATH TO 5G ..................................................................................................... 16 Expanding Use Cases ............................................................................................ 16 1G to 5G Evolution ............................................................................................... 17 4G LTE Advances .................................................................................................. 20 5G Use Cases (ITU and 3GPP) ................................................................................ 24 5G Technical Objectives ......................................................................................... 26 5G Concepts and Architectures ............................................................................... 27 Information-Centric Networking .............................................................................. 35 5G Phased Release ............................................................................................... 36 3GPP Releases ..................................................................................................... 38 SUPPORTING TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES ............................................. 41 Types of Cells ...................................................................................................... 41 Smalls Cells and Heterogeneous Networks ............................................................... 42 Neutral-Host Small Cells ........................................................................................ 44 Unlicensed Spectrum Integration ............................................................................ 45 Internet of Things and Machine-to-Machine .............................................................. 49 Smart Antennas and MIMO .................................................................................... 50 Virtualization ....................................................................................................... 51 Mobile-Edge Computing ......................................................................................... 53 Fixed Mobile Convergence and IMS ......................................................................... 53 Multicast and Broadcast ......................................................................................... 54 VOLTE, RCS, WEBRTC, AND WI-FI CALLING ........................................................... 55 Voice Support and VoLTE ....................................................................................... 55 Rich Communications Suite .................................................................................... 55 WebRTC .............................................................................................................. 57 Wi-Fi Calling ........................................................................................................ 57 PUBLIC SAFETY ...................................................................................................... 58 LTE Features for Public Safety ................................................................................ 58 Deployment Schedule and Approaches ..................................................................... 60 Device Considerations for Public Safety .................................................................... 61 EXPANDING CAPACITY ........................................................................................... 63 SPECTRUM DEVELOPMENTS .................................................................................... 67 AWS-3 ................................................................................................................ 69 Broadcast Incentive Auction (600 MHz) .................................................................... 70 3550 to 3700 MHz “Small-Cell” Band ....................................................................... 70 2.5 GHz Band ....................................................................................................... 71 5G Bands ............................................................................................................ 71 Harmonization ...................................................................................................... 73 Unlicensed Spectrum ............................................................................................. 75 Spectrum Sharing ................................................................................................. 76 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 80 APPENDIX: TECHNOLOGY DETAILS ........................................................................ 81 3GPP Releases ..................................................................................................... 81 Data Throughput Comparison ................................................................................. 83 Latency Comparison .............................................................................................. 88 Spectral Efficiency ................................................................................................ 89 Data Consumed by Video ....................................................................................... 96 Spectrum Bands ................................................................................................... 97 LTE and LTE-Advanced ........................................................................................ 100 LTE-Advanced Terminology ............................................................................... 100 OFDMA and Scheduling .................................................................................... 101 LTE Smart Antennas ........................................................................................ 103 LTE-Advanced Antenna Technologies .................................................................. 107 Carrier Aggregation ......................................................................................... 111 Coordinated Multi Point (CoMP) ......................................................................... 116 User-Plane Congestion Management (UPCON) ..................................................... 119 Network-Assisted Interference Cancellation and Suppression (NAICS) ..................... 119 Multi-User Superposition Transmission (MUST) .................................................... 119 IPv4/IPv6 ....................................................................................................... 119 TDD Harmonization .......................................................................................... 120 SMS in LTE ..................................................................................................... 121 User Equipment Categories ............................................................................... 121 LTE-Advanced Relays ....................................................................................... 122 Proximity Services (Device-to-Device) ................................................................ 122 LTE Throughput .................................................................................................. 123 VoLTE and RCS .................................................................................................. 130 Internet of Things and Machine-to-Machine ............................................................ 135 Heterogeneous Networks and Small Cells ............................................................... 137 Enhanced Intercell Interference Coordination ....................................................... 141 Dual Connectivity ............................................................................................ 146 Cloud Radio-Access Network (RAN) and Network Virtualization .................................. 148 Unlicensed Spectrum Integration .......................................................................... 152 Release 6 I-WLAN ............................................................................................ 153 Release 8 Dual Stack Mobile IPv6 and Proxy Mobile IPv6 ....................................... 153 Release 11 S2a-based Mobility over GTP ............................................................. 153 Multipath TCP ................................................................................................. 154 ANDSF ........................................................................................................... 154 Bidirectional Offloading Challenges ..................................................................... 155 Other Integration Technologies (SIPTO, LIPA, IFOM, MAPCON)............................... 157 Hotspot 2.0 .................................................................................................... 157 Evolved Packet Core (EPC) ................................................................................... 159 Self-Organizing Networks (SON) ........................................................................... 162 IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) ............................................................................ 164 Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 2 Broadcast/Multicast Services ................................................................................ 165 Backhaul ........................................................................................................... 166 UMTS-HSPA ....................................................................................................... 168 HSDPA ........................................................................................................... 169 HSUPA ........................................................................................................... 172 Evolution of HSPA (HSPA+) .................................................................................. 173 Advanced Receivers ......................................................................................... 173 MIMO ............................................................................................................ 174 Continuous Packet Connectivity ......................................................................... 175 Higher Order Modulation ................................................................................... 175 Multi-Carrier HSPA ........................................................................................... 175 Downlink Multiflow Transmission ........................................................................ 176 HSPA+ Throughput Rates ................................................................................. 177 UMTS-HSPA Voice ............................................................................................... 181 Improved Circuit-Switched Voice ....................................................................... 181 HSPA VoIP ...................................................................................................... 182 UMTS TDD ......................................................................................................... 183 TD-SCDMA ........................................................................................................ 183 EDGE/EGPRS ..................................................................................................... 184 TV White Spaces ................................................................................................ 186 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................ 188 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ................................................................................ 197 Copyright ©2016 Rysavy Research, LLC. All rights reserved. http://www.rysavy.com Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 3 Introduction The mobile industry is in the process of massive transformation, creating vast new capabilities that will benefit businesses and society as a whole. The step from 3G to 4G was dramatic, and the advances the industry is unleashing, initially in LTE and then in 5G, will be even greater. Standards bodies have not yet specified 5G; that process is not expected until the 2020 timeframe. But engineers have demonstrated many of 5G’s expected capabilities, and some operators have stated they will deploy pre-standard networks for fixed applications as early as 2017. 5G will not replace LTE, but in most deployments will co-exist with it through at least the late-2020s with the two technologies tightly integrated in a manner transparent to users. Many of the capabilities that will make 5G so effective are appearing in advanced forms of LTE. With carrier aggregation, for example, operators have not only harnessed the potential of their spectrum holdings to augment capacity and performance, but the technology is also the foundation for entirely new capabilities, such as operating LTE in unlicensed bands. The computing power of today’s handheld computers rivals that of past mainframe computers, powering intuitive operating systems and millions of applications. Coupled with affordable mobile broadband connectivity, these devices provide such unprecedented utility that more than three billion people are now using them.1 With long-term growth in smartphones and usage limited by population, innovators are turning their attention to the Internet of Things (IoT), which promises billions of new wireless connections. Enhancements to LTE followed by 5G capabilities will connect wearable computers, a vast array of sensors, and other devices, leading to better health, economic gains, and other advantages. 5G addresses not only IoT deployments on a massive scale, but also applications previously not possible that depend on ultra-reliable and low-latency communications. Although a far more fragmented market than smartphones, the benefits will be so great that the realization of IoT on a massive scale is inevitable. The only question is how, exactly, the market will evolve. Regulatory policies are striving to keep pace, addressing complex issues that include how best to allocate and manage new spectrum, network neutrality, and privacy. Policy decisions will have a major impact on the evolution of mobile broadband. These are exciting times for both people working in the industry and those who use the technology. This paper attempts to capture the scope of what the industry is developing, beginning with Table 1, which summarizes some of the most important advances. 1 GSMA, The Mobile Economy, 2015, available at http://www.gsmamobileeconomy.com/GSMA_Global_Mobile_Economy_Report_2015.pdf. Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 4 Table 1: Most Important Wireless Industry Developments in 2016 Development Summary 5G Research and 5G, in early stages of definition through global efforts and many Development proposed technical approaches, could start to be deployed close to Accelerates 2020 and continue through 2030. Some operators have announced deployment of pre-standard networks for fixed deployments as early as 2017. 5G will be designed to integrate with LTE networks, and many 5G features may be implemented as LTE-Advanced Pro extensions prior to full 5G availability. LTE Becomes the A previously fragmented wireless industry has consolidated globally Global Cellular on LTE. Standard LTE is being deployed more quickly than any previous-generation wireless technology. LTE-Advanced Carrier Aggregation, a key LTE-Advanced feature that operators are Provides Dramatic deploying globally, uses available spectrum more effectively, Advantages increases network capacity, can increase user throughput rates, and provides new ways to integrate unlicensed spectrum. Other features in early stages of deployment or being tested for deployment include: Self-Organizing Network (SON) capabilities in the radio-access network, Enhanced Inter-Cell Interference Coordination (eICIC) for small cells that use the same radio channels as the macro cell, and Coordinated Multi Point (CoMP) transmission so multiple sites can simultaneously transmit coordinated signals and process signals to and from mobile users, improving cell-edge performance. Internet of Things IoT, evolving from machine-to-machine (M2M) communications, is Poised for Massive seeing rapid adoption, with tens of billions of connected devices Adoption expected over the next ten years. Drivers include improved LTE support, other supporting wireless technologies, and service-layer standardization such as oneM2M. Unlicensed The industry has developed increasingly sophisticated means for Spectrum Wi-Fi and cellular networks to interoperate, such as LTE-WLAN Becomes More Aggregation (LWA) and LTE-WLAN Aggregation with IPSec Tunnel Tightly Integrated (LWIP), making the user experience ever more seamless. with Cellular The industry is also developing versions of LTE that can operate in unlicensed spectrum, such as LTE-Unlicensed (LTE-U), LTE-Licensed Assisted Access (LTE-LAA), and MulteFire. Cellular and Wi-Fi industry members are collaborating to ensure fair co-existence. Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 5 Development Summary Spectrum Still Spectrum in general, and in particular licensed-band spectrum, Precious remains a precious commodity for the industry; its value was demonstrated by the recent Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) auction in the United States that achieved record valuations. Forthcoming spectrum in the United States includes the 600 MHz band being auctioned in 2016 and the 3.5 GHz “small-cell” band that the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is in the process of enabling. 5G spectrum will include bands above 6 GHz, called mmWave when above 30 GHz, with the potential of ten times as much spectrum as is currently available for cellular. Radio channels of 200 MHz, 500 MHz, or even wider will enable multi-Gbps peak throughput. Small Cells Take Operators have begun installing small cells. Eventually, millions of Baby Steps, small cells will lead to massive increases in capacity. Preparing to The industry is slowly overcoming challenges that include Stride government regulations, site acquisition, self-organization, interference management, and backhaul. Network Function New network function virtualization (NFV) and software-defined Virtualization networking (SDN) tools and architectures are enabling operators to (NFV) Emerges reduce network costs, simplify deployment of new services, reduce deployment time, and scale their networks. Some operators are also virtualizing the radio-access network, as well as pursuing a related development called cloud radio-access network (cloud RAN). The main part of this paper covers exploding demand for wireless services, the path to 5G, supporting technologies and architectures, voice over LTE (VoLTE), Wi-Fi calling, LTE for public safety, options to expand capacity, and spectrum developments. The appendix delves into more technical aspects of the following topics: data throughput, 2 latency, UMTS/WCDMA, HSPA, HSPA+, LTE, LTE-Advanced, LTE-Advanced Pro, HetNets, small cells, self-organizing networks, the Evolved Packet Core, unlicensed spectrum integration, the IP multimedia subsystem, cloud radio-access networks, broadcast/multicast services, backhaul, UMTS TDD, EDGE, and TV white spaces. 2 Although many use the terms “UMTS” and “WCDMA” interchangeably, in this paper “WCDMA” refers to the radio interface technology used within UMTS, and “UMTS” refers to the complete system. HSPA is an enhancement to WCDMA. LTE with EPC is a completely new architecture. Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 6 Transformation Many elements are interacting to fuel the transformation of mobile broadband, but the factors playing the most important roles are the emerging capabilities for IoT, radio advances granting access to far more spectrum, small cells about to play a much larger role, new network architectures that leverage network function virtualization and software-defined networking, and new means to employ unlicensed spectrum. Except for access to high-band spectrum, a 5G objective, these advances apply to both LTE and 5G. Figure 1: Fundamental Transformational Elements This section explains each of these elements in more detail, beginning with IoT. In the past, developers used modems and networks designed for human communication for machine-type applications. This approach worked for some applications but fell short in many others. Now, new modes of network operation, initially in LTE, then enhanced further in 5G, will cater to the unique needs of a wide variety of machine applications, addressing low cost, long battery life, a wide variety of throughputs, and long communications range. As for spectrum, throughout radio history, technology has climbed up a ladder to use higher frequencies. What were called “ultra-high frequencies” when made available for television are now considered low-band frequencies for cellular. Frequencies above 6 GHz, particularly mmWave frequencies, are the new frontier. Networks will ultimately take advantage of ten times as much spectrum as they use now, and likely even more over time. Although Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 7 challenging to use because of propagation limitations, massive MIMO, beam steering, beam tracking, dual connectivity, carrier aggregation, small-cell architectures, and other methods will help mitigate the challenges at these frequencies. The result: massive increases in capacity. In addition to accessing higher bands, cellular technologies are about to integrate unlicensed spectrum more efficiently, using technologies such as LTE-U, LAA, MulteFire, LWA, and LWIP. This integration will immediately augment small -cell capacity, improving the business case for small cells. Small cells, on the roadmap for many years but held back by implementation difficulties such as backhaul and lack of neutral -host solutions, are on the verge of large-scale deployment, leading ultimately to ten small cells or more for every macro cell. Paving the way are better wireless backhaul solutions, neutral -host capabilities enabled by new technologies, and soon, access to mmWave bands. Facilitating the capabilities listed above, n etworks are becoming programmable. Using a distributed, software-enabled network based on virtualization and new architectural approaches such as mobile-edge computing (MEC) and network slicing, operators and third parties will be able to deploy new services and applications m ore rapidly, and in a more scalable fashion. Centralizing radio-access network (RAN) signal processing will also play a huge role, which, depending on the deployment scenario, will increase RAN efficiency and decrease deployment cost. This paper lists the dozens of other innovations also fueling mobile and cellular technology transformation. Together, these transformed networks will mean that for millions, and ultimately billions, of people, wireless connections will be the only connections that people need. These networks will also provide the foundation for entir e new industries, ones not even conceived. Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 8 Exploding Demand Mobile broadband satisfies an inherent human and business need: to do more without being tied to a physical location. Two technology trajectories have collided and reached critical mass: handheld computing and fast wireless connections. This combined computing and communications platform inspires the innovation that has produced millions of applications. Until now, human interaction has driven wireless demand, but communicating machines will be a third trajectory that expands demand even further. What types of things communicate and how they do so will vary far more than human communication. Predicting whether, over the next decade, the Internet of Things contributes to demand by a factor of ten or a hundred is impossible. IoT’s massive impact, however, is inevitable. Figure 2: Exploding Demand from Critical Mass of Multiple Factors This section explores these various demand factors. Smartphones and Tablets Today’s smartphones and tablets have raw capability that makes millions of mobile applications possible:  Processors clocked at over 1 GHz.  Memory ranging from 16 GB to 128 GB and able to store thousands of songs and many hours of video.  Motion processing. Mobile Broadband Transformation, Rysavy Research/5G Americas, August 2016 Page 9