Fishery Data Series No. 14-25 Migratory Timing and Abundance Estimates of Sockeye Salmon into Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, 2012 by Aaron W. Dupuis and T. Mark Willette May 2014 Alaska Department of Fish and Game Divisions of Sport Fish and Commercial Fisheries Symbols and Abbreviations The following symbols and abbreviations, and others approved for the Système International d'Unités (SI), are used without definition in the following reports by the Divisions of Sport Fish and of Commercial Fisheries: Fishery Manuscripts, Fishery Data Series Reports, Fishery Management Reports, and Special Publications. All others, including deviations from definitions listed below, are noted in the text at first mention, as well as in the titles or footnotes of tables, and in figure or figure captions. Weights and measures (metric) General Mathematics, statistics centimeter cm Alaska Administrative all standard mathematical deciliter dL Code AAC signs, symbols and gram g all commonly accepted abbreviations hectare ha abbreviations e.g., Mr., Mrs., alternate hypothesis HA kilogram kg AM, PM, etc. base of natural logarithm e kilometer km all commonly accepted catch per unit effort CPUE liter L professional titles e.g., Dr., Ph.D., coefficient of variation CV meter m R.N., etc. common test statistics (F, t, χ2, etc.) milliliter mL at @ confidence interval CI millimeter mm compass directions: correlation coefficient east E (multiple) R Weights and measures (English) north N correlation coefficient cubic feet per second ft3/s south S (simple) r foot ft west W covariance cov gallon gal copyright  degree (angular ) ° inch in corporate suffixes: degrees of freedom df mile mi Company Co. expected value E nautical mile nmi Corporation Corp. greater than > ounce oz Incorporated Inc. greater than or equal to ≥ pound lb Limited Ltd. harvest per unit effort HPUE quart qt District of Columbia D.C. less than < yard yd et alii (and others) et al. less than or equal to ≤ et cetera (and so forth) etc. logarithm (natural) ln Time and temperature exempli gratia logarithm (base 10) log day d (for example) e.g. logarithm (specify base) log etc. 2, degrees Celsius °C Federal Information minute (angular) ' degrees Fahrenheit °F Code FIC not significant NS degrees kelvin K id est (that is) i.e. null hypothesis H O hour h latitude or longitude lat or long percent % minute min monetary symbols probability P second s (U.S.) $, ¢ probability of a type I error months (tables and (rejection of the null Physics and chemistry figures): first three hypothesis when true) α all atomic symbols letters Jan,...,Dec probability of a type II error alternating current AC registered trademark  (acceptance of the null ampere A trademark  hypothesis when false) β calorie cal United States second (angular) " direct current DC (adjective) U.S. standard deviation SD hertz Hz United States of standard error SE horsepower hp America (noun) USA variance hydrogen ion activity pH U.S.C. United States population Var (negative log of) Code sample var parts per million ppm U.S. state use two-letter abbreviations parts per thousand ppt, ‰ (e.g., AK, WA) volts V watts W FISHERY DATA SERIES NO. 14-25 MIGRATORY TIMING AND ABUNDANCE ESTIMATES OF SOCKEYE SALMON INTO UPPER COOK INLET, ALASKA, 2012 by Aaron W. Dupuis and T. Mark Willette Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries, Soldotna Alaska Department of Fish and Game Division of Sport Fish, Research and Technical Services 333 Raspberry Road, Anchorage, Alaska, 99518-1565 May 2014 ADF&G Fishery Data Series was established in 1987 for the publication of Division of Sport Fish technically oriented results for a single project or group of closely related projects, and in 2004 became a joint divisional series with the Division of Commercial Fisheries. Fishery Data Series reports are intended for fishery and other technical professionals and are available through the Alaska State Library and on the Internet: http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/publications/ This publication has undergone editorial and peer review. Aaron Dupuis and T. Mark Willette, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries, 43961 Kalifornsky Beach Road, Suite B, Soldotna, AK 99669-8367, USA This document should be cited as: Dupuis, A. W., and T. M. Willette. 2014. Migratory timing and abundance estimates of sockeye salmon into Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, 2012. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fishery Data Series No. 14-25, Anchorage. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) administers all programs and activities free from discrimination based on race, color, national origin, age, sex, religion, marital status, pregnancy, parenthood, or disability. The department administers all programs and activities in compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, the Age Discrimination Act of 1975, and Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972. If you believe you have been discriminated against in any program, activity, or facility please write: ADF&G ADA Coordinator, P.O. Box 115526, Juneau, AK 99811-5526 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 4401 N. Fairfax Drive, MS 2042, Arlington, VA 22203 Office of Equal Opportunity, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1849 C Street NW MS 5230, Washington DC 20240 The department’s ADA Coordinator can be reached via phone at the following numbers: (VOICE) 907-465-6077, (Statewide Telecommunication Device for the Deaf) 1-800-478-3648, (Juneau TDD) 907-465-3646, or (FAX) 907-465-6078 For information on alternative formats and questions on this publication, please contact: ADF&G, Division of Sport Fish, Research and Technical Services, 333 Raspberry Road, Anchorage AK 99518 (907)267-2375. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................................................... ii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................................................... ii LIST OF APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................... ii ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................................................................ 2 METHODS .................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Test Fishing ................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Southern OTF ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Northern OTF ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Describing the Salmon Migration and Projecting Total Run ......................................................................................... 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................................... 6 Southern OTF ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Inseason Abundance Estimates ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Kenai River Run Estimate ............................................................................................................................................. 7 OTF Error ...................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Run Timing .................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Environmental Variables ............................................................................................................................................. 10 GSI Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Northern OTF .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................................................... 12 REFERENCES CITED ............................................................................................................................................... 12 TABLES AND FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................... 17 APPENDIX A ............................................................................................................................................................. 39 APPENDIX B .............................................................................................................................................................. 63 i LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Summary of sockeye salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch and catch per unit of effort (CPUE), and mean fish length, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ........................ 18 2 Estimated sockeye salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ................................................................................................................................................. 19 3 Estimated sockeye salmon catch per unit of effort, by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ..................................................................................................................... 20 4 Total run estimates for sockeye salmon to Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, made during the 2012 season. ......... 21 5 Projected total Kenai River sockeye salmon run (millions) in 2012 estimated from total southern offshore test fish CPUE and age composition stock allocation data through 23 July, 2012. ......................... 22 6 Absolute percent error (APE) using the first best fit estimate of southern test fish data on or after July 20 to project the total annual Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon run 1988–2012. ........................................ 23 7 A comparison of models used to make postseason adjustments to the southern offshore test fish final catch per unit of effort (CPUE), 1979–2012. ................................................................................................ 24 8 Midpoint dates of the sockeye salmon run across the southern test fish transect in Upper Cook Inlet, 1979–2012. .................................................................................................................................................... 25 9 Genetic stock composition estimates, standard deviation (SD), 90% credibility interval (CI), sample size (n), and effective sample size (n ) for mixtures of sockeye salmon captured in the Upper Cook eff Inlet southern offshore test fishery in 2006–2011. ........................................................................................ 26 10 Genetic stock composition estimates, standard deviation (SD), and 90% credibility interval (CI), and effective sample size (n ) for spatially grouped mixtures of sockeye salmon captured in the Cook Inlet eff southern offshore test fishery by station from 1 to 30 July, 2011. ................................................................ 32 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Location of the southern offshore test fish transect and fishing stations in Cook Inlet, Alaska, 2012. ......... 33 2 Location of the northern offshore test fish transect and fishing stations in Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, 2012. .............................................................................................................................................................. 34 3 Linear regression of the relationship between southern offshore test fish unadjusted cumulative CPUE and Upper Cook Inlet logged sockeye salmon total annual run, 1992–2012. ............................................... 35 4 Absolute Percentage Error (APE) in forecasting the total sockeye salmon run to Upper Cook Inlet using the 20 July best fit estimate, 1988–2012. ............................................................................................. 36 5 Observed and estimated cumulative CPUE proportions for the sockeye salmon run to Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, 2012. ....................................................................................................................................... 37 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix Page A1 Summary of pink salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .......................................................................... 40 A2 Estimated pink salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .............................................................................................................................................................. 41 A3 Estimated pink salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project 2012. .............................................................................................................................................................. 42 A4 Summary of chum salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .......................................................................... 43 A5 Estimated chum salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .............................................................................................................................................................. 44 A6 Estimated chum salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ................................................................................................................................................. 45 ii LIST OF APPENDICES (Continued) Appendix Page A7 Summary of coho salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .......................................................................... 46 A8 Estimated coho salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .............................................................................................................................................................. 47 A9 Estimated coho salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. .............................................................................................................................................................. 48 A10 Summary of Chinook salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ............................................................. 49 A11 Estimated Chinook salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ................................................................................................................................................. 50 A12 Estimated Chinook salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 2012. ................................................................................................................................................. 51 A13 Final cumulative catch and CPUE values by year for pink salmon, chum salmon, coho salmon, and Chinook salmon from the Upper Cook Inlet southern offshore test fish project, 1992–2012. ...................... 52 A14 Entry pattern of sockeye salmon into Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, 2012 estimated from daily CPUE measured at the latitude of Anchor Point. ..................................................................................................... 53 A15 Chemical and physical observations made in Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, during the 2012 southern offshore test fish project. ............................................................................................................................... 54 A16 Yearly mean values of physical observations made during the conduct of the 2001-2012 southern offshore test fish project. ............................................................................................................................... 59 A17 Yearly mean values for selected chemical and physical variables collected during the southern offshore test fish project, 1979–2012. ......................................................................................................................... 61 B1 Summary of sockeye salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. .............................................................. 64 B2 Estimated sockeye salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished.......................................................................... 65 B3 Estimated sockeye salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished.......................................................................... 66 B4 Summary of pink salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. .......................................................................... 67 B5 Estimated pink salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished....................................................................................... 68 B6 Estimated pink salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished....................................................................................... 69 B7 Summary of chum salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. .......................................................................... 70 B8 Estimated chum salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicated a station that was not fished. .................................................................................... 71 B9 Estimated chum salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished.......................................................................... 72 B10 Summary of coho salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. .......................................................................... 73 B11 Estimated coho salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished....................................................................................... 74 B12 Estimated coho salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished....................................................................................... 75 B13 Summary of Chinook salmon fishing effort, daily and cumulative catch, and daily and cumulative CPUE, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. .............................................................. 76 B14 Estimated Chinook salmon catch by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished.......................................................................... 77 B15 Estimated Chinook salmon CPUE by date and station, Upper Cook Inlet northern offshore test fish project, 2012. Dashes indicate a station that was not fished.......................................................................... 78 iii iv ABSTRACT Two offshore test fisheries (OTF) operated during the 2012 season in Upper Cook Inlet (UCI). The southern OTF originates on the east side of Cook Inlet near Anchor Point. Its objective is to assess the size and timing of the sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka run entering UCI, including the Kenai River. The southern OTF was conducted from 1 July through 30 July and captured 2,721 sockeye salmon representing 2,052 catch per unit of effort (CPUE) index points. The midpoint of the 2012 sockeye salmon run at the southern OTF occurred on 14 July. One formal inseason estimate of the size and timing of the 2012 sockeye salmon run was made on 24 July; the best- fit estimator from the analysis predicted a total run to UCI of 6.73 million sockeye salmon. This estimate deviated from the actual total run of 6.61 million fish by 1.8%. One inseason estimate of the total Kenai River sockeye salmon run was also made and was projected to range between 4.66 and 9.02 million fish. The first best-fit Kenai River total run estimate from this analysis (4.66 million) differed from the preseason Kenai River total run estimate by approximately 15%. Genetic stock identification (GSI) of samples collected during the test fishery showed similar stock compositions to previous years. A second UCI northern test fishery began in 2012 UCI to assess the potential of spatial and temporal separation of Susitna River sockeye salmon migrating through Cook Inlet using genetic stock identification (GSI). This new northern OTF was located in the northern area of the Central District with the transect running across UCI from the Blanchard Line to the Drift River. Operated from July 1 through July 30, the new UCI test fishery captured 9,118 sockeye salmon. Of these fish, approximately 2,830 individuals were sampled for GSI. Key words: Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus spp., Upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, test fishery, migratory behavior, genetic stock identification. INTRODUCTION In 1979, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) began an offshore test fish (OTF) project (hereafter referred as the southern OTF) near the southern boundary of the Upper Cook Inlet (UCI) salmon management area between Anchor Point and the Red River Delta (Figure 1). These stations have been fished since 1992 (Tarbox 1994) and were established based on analyses that showed they provided the most reliable estimates of inseason run size and timing. Station 6.5 was not fished prior to 1992; analyses concluded that the addition of station 6.5 increased sampling power, but did not alter estimates of run timing (Tarbox and King 1992). The project was designed to estimate the total sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka run (including run timing) returning to UCI during the commercial salmon fishing season. These data have become extremely important to ADF&G staff, helping to adjust commercial fishing times and areas to most efficiently harvest surplus sockeye salmon or restrict fisheries that may overharvest specific stocks. In recent years, the Alaska Board of Fisheries (BOF) has assembled various management plans requiring inseason abundance estimates of the annual sockeye salmon run to implement specific plan provisions. The OTF project has increasingly become one of the most important tools fishery managers utilize to make inseason fishery management decisions that comply with BOF management directives. Test fishing results have been reported annually since 1979 (Waltemyer 1983a, 1983b, 1986a, 1986b; Hilsinger and Waltemyer 1987; Hilsinger 1988; Tarbox and Waltemyer 1989; Tarbox 1990–1991, 1994–1998a, 1998b, 1999; Tarbox and King 1992; Shields 2000, 2001, 2003; Shields and Willette 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009a, 2009b, 2010, 2011). This report presents the results of the 2012 test fishing project. In 2012, a second test fishery project (hereafter referred as northern OTF) was added. This project collected tissue samples from sockeye salmon for genetic stock identification (GSI) in order to assess the spatial and temporal separation of Susitna River sockeye salmon as they 1 migrate through Cook Inlet. This vessel fished 7 stations along a transect running from the Kenai Peninsula near the Blanchard Line across the northern tip of Kalgin Island to near the mouth of Drift River (Figure 2). This project was funded through Capital Improvement Project (CIP) monies provided by the Alaska Legislature, and is expected to run for a minimum of 5 years (2012–2016). OBJECTIVES The objectives of the Southern OTF project were to 1. Develop an inseason estimate of the 2012 UCI sockeye salmon total run, 2. Develop an inseason estimate the 2012 Kenai River sockeye salmon total run, and 3. Collect samples from sockeye salmon for postseason GSI. The objective of the Northern OTF project was to 1. Use GSI information to determine if Susitna River sockeye salmon stocks could be spatially or temporally separated from other sockeye salmon stocks in Cook Inlet. METHODS TEST FISHING Southern OTF Sockeye salmon returning to UCI were sampled by fishing 6 geographically fixed stations at the southern OTF sites (Figure 1). Stations were numbered consecutively from east to west, with station locations (latitude and longitude) determined with global positioning system technology. A chartered test fishing vessel, F/V Ryan J, sampled all 6 stations (numbered 4, 5, 6, 6.5, 7 and 8) daily, traveling east to west on odd-numbered days and west to east on even-numbered days. Sampling started on 1 July and continued through 29 July. The vessel fished 366 m (1,200 ft or 200 fathoms) of multi-filament drift gillnet with a mesh size of 13 cm (5 1/8 inches). The net was 45 meshes deep and constructed of double knot Super Crystal1 shade number 1, with filament size 53/S6F. Catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) data for missed stations were interpolated using a simple linear regression between catches from the day before and the day after for each station not fished. The following physical and chemical readings were taken at the start of each set: air temperature, water temperature and salinity (at 1 m below the surface), wind velocity and direction, tide stage, water depth, and water clarity. Air and water temperatures (°C) and salinity (ppt) were measured using a YSI1 salinity/temperature meter. Wind speed was measured in knots and direction was recorded as 0 (no wind), 1 (north), 2 (northeast), 3 (east), 4 (southeast), 5 (south), 6 (southwest), 7 (west), or 8 (northwest) using a pocket weather tracker. Tide stage was classified as 1 (high slack), 2 (low slack), 3 (flooding), or 4 (ebbing) by observing the movement of the vessel while drifting with the gill net. Water depth was measured in fathoms (fm) using a Simrad echo sounder, and water clarity was measured in meters (m) using a 17.5 cm secchi disk, following methods described by Koenings et al. (1987). 1 Product names used in this report are included for scientific completeness, but do not constitute a product endorsement. 2