MICHEL GODET Appropriation Preface by Joseph F. COATES E3 ECONOMICA Second Edition PREFACE A second edition is always a cause for celebration. For the pub lisher, it confirms his hope that the product he sponsored would con tinue to be successful economically. For the author, the implications are even more delicious. His message has been understood, studied, and used. One could rarely ask for more from a professional thinker and a proponent ofbetter ways to think. To me the most striking mark of success is that the software indispensable to the tools and tech niques which Godet describes, explains, and advocates has been down loaded from the Internet over 7000 times, at no cost. While a number of futures works in the English speaking world are accompanied by software packages in the form of CDs, the Godet approach - make it free with the help of the Entrepreneurs of the Future Circle — is far more socially valuable. The second advantage I see in this new edition is pulling some of the good ideas out of chapter three to integrate into other chapters, and then creating an entirely new chapter three. He hunts down a par ticularly subversive form of thinking, or more properly, failure to think, in the form of six clusters of cliches. Other minor changes throughout sharpen, clarify, or expand on details. If clarity is a virtue, Michel Godet is a saint. Two features of Pro fessor Godet's career show through clearly in his new tour de force. First, as a university professor, he admires and practices clarity, con sistency, and intellectual integrity. As a consultant practitioner - one of the most eminent in France - he brings to his treatment ofscenario planning as a strategic management tool, a degree ofpracticality and flexibility which is admirable. His attitude and precepts if adopted would greatly benefit all ofthose who could be successful in the use of scenarios as a planning tool and in strategic management. Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool © Economica Ltd, 2006 AU rights reserved Firstpublished 2006 Printed in France Michel Godet Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool ISBN2-7178-5244-l MICHEL GODET Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool Preface by Joseph F. COATES Translated by Adam Gerber and Kathryn Radford Second Edition 63 ECONOMICA London • Paris • Genève ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This is the second edition of Creating Futures and most of the content has been updated; particularly chapters one, two, and three. Chapter 3, Clichés and AntiClichés About the Future, is completely new. The first edition's success can certainly be attributed to the thou sands ofvisitors to the Lipsor web site (http://www.lipsor.fryO who have downloaded the toolbox for futures studies, which is available free of charge since 2005. None ofthis would have been possible without the generous support of the Entrepreneurs of the Future Circle, which now comprises more than 40 organisations. This book was translated with assistance from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, specifically the Scientific and Technical Coopera tion Department, in order to help the French school of la prospective become better known in the English-speaking world. The translation/ adaptation ofmy work 1 for the first edition owes much to the literary talent of Kathryn Radford (lecturer, Université de Montréal and McGiIl University), who gladly attended corporate workshops in Paris to see our futures-thinking techniques in practice. My friend and close associate Adam Gerber (American futurist and researcher at Lipsor) has contributed enormously to this volume by translating and adapt ing much of the new content. Lastly, I am both grateful and honoured to have one of the greatest American futurists, Joseph F. Coates, write the preface to Creating Futures. 1. French handbook Manuel de prospective stratégique, Dunod, 1997, 2001, 2004. ENTREPRENEURS OF THE FUTURE ClRCLE Established in late 2003 and now comprising some 40 partners, the Entrepreneurs of the Future Circle contributes to the academic disci pline oflaprospective (futures studies) while advancing the prestige of the French school oflaprospective throughout the world. Thanks to the Entrepreneurs of the Future Circle, futurists from around the world now have access to these sophisticated software tools available in three languages; French, English and Spanish. In addi tion to the software, you will also find several important reference and out-of-print documents related to futures studies at our site, http:// www.3ie.orgAipsor/. These software programs and documents may be downloaded free- of-charge from the Lipsor website: http://www.3ie.org^ipsor/ Although futures studies is an intellectual "indiscipline", there is a need for rigorous methods to orient action towards a desired future. The toolbox of futures studies allow the user apply rigour to the fore sight process by posing important questions, reducing incoherencies and creating a common language. Six Tools and Software to Assist at Various Stages of the Foresight Process Strategic prospective workshops: ask the right questions and chose the appropriate method. Micmac: identify the key variables for structural analysis. Mactor: analyse the strategies ofvarious actors. Morphol: sweep the field ofpossibilities with morphological analysis. Smic Prob-Expert: reduce uncertainty with the aid of expert interviews. Multipol: evaluate and chose the strategic options. CONTENTS PREFACE XI CHAPTER 1 HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE NOW 1 Back to the Future 2 Planning, "la Prospective" and Strategy: What is the Difference? 3 Ten Key Ideas 9 CHAPTER 2 WHY DO THE EXPERTS GET IT WRONG?... 23 TalesofError 25 EnergyForecastingErrors 27 The Four Main Causes ofError 31 Misinformation - More and More! 35 No RightAnswers toWrong Questions 39 Three Mirages from the 1970s and 1980s 41 The New Economy Was an Old Hat 48 CHAPTER3 CLICHÉSANDANTI-CLICHÉSABOUT THE FUTURE 59 Development Factors Are Endogenous 61 Globalization Is Not to Blame 65 Technology Is Not Essential 78