Africa has made important strides in implementing the MDGs. Significant progress has been recorded MDGs to Agenda 2063/SDGs on at least five of the eight MDGs: MDG2 – primary school enrolment; MDG3 – gender equality and empowerment of women; MDG4 – reducing child mortality; MDG6 – combating the spread of HIV and AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis and MDG7 – ensuring environmental sustainability. Transition Report 2016 On the other hand, the partial fulfillment of Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) commitments coupled with Africa’s persistently low share of Africa global trade suggests that developing a global partnership for development (MDG8) remains a work in progress. Moreover, even though maternal deaths have declined precipitously (MDG5) the levels remain unacceptably high across the continent. M Towards an integrated and coherent approach to Meanwhile, progress on the eradication of extreme hunger and poverty (MDG 1) has been slow with D G reversals in some countries. s sustainable development in Africa t o Consolidating and sustaining the progress made so far therefore remains a critical challenge for A g Africa. In this context, the adoption of Africa’s Agenda 2063 in January 2015 and the 2030 Agenda for e n Sustainable Development in September of the same year was both timely and appropriate because both d a agendas reaffirm the centrality of sustainability to the development discourse. 2 0 6 3 African countries have already started the hard work of implementing Agenda 2063 and 2030. / S However, success will require among others, strengthened capacities for integration of both agendas D G in national planning frameworks, effective institutional coordination and strong statistical systems to s support evidenced based policymaking and follow-up. - T r a n s iti o n R e p o r t 2 0 1 6 Empowered lives. Resilient nations. ISBN: 978-99944-68-69-0 Printed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia by the ECA Printing and Publishing Unit. ISO 14001:2004 certified. 9 789994 468690 Printed on Chlorine Free Paper MDGs to Agenda 2063/SDGs Transition Report 2016 Towards an integrated and coherent approach to sustainable development in Africa African Union African Development Empowered lives. Resilient nations. Bank Group Ordering information To order copies of MDGs to Agenda 2063/SDGs - Transition Report 2016, please contact: Publications Section Economic Commission for Africa P.O. Box 3001 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Tel: +251 11 544-9900 Fax: +251 11 551-4416 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.uneca.org © 2016 African Union, Economic Commission for Africa; African Development Bank and United Nations Development Programme Addis Ababa, Ethiopia All rights reserved First printing September 2016 ISBN: 978-99944-68-69-0 Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication. Designed and printed by the ECA Documents Publishing Unit. ISO 14001:2004 certified. iii Table of Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgements ix A note on methodology xi Acronyms and abbreviations xiii Executive summary xv Section I: Tracking progress 1 MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty 1 MDG 2: Achieve universal primary education 15 MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women 26 MDG 4: Reduce child mortality 36 MDG 5: Improve maternal health 46 MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases 58 MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability 67 MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development 80 Section II: Africa’s dual transition to the SDGs and Agenda 2063 - challenges and opportunities 93 Section III: Conclusions and policy perspectives 110 Annex 1: Official list of SDG Indicators 114 References 135 Figures iv Figure 1.1: Proportion of population living below $1.90 purchasing power parity (PPP) per day, 1990 - 2012 3 6 01 Figure 1.2: Progress in reducing poverty by half, 1990-2012 4 2 ort Figure 1.3: Annual GDP growth rates (per cent), per region 6 p e R Figure 1.4: GDP growth rates (per cent), Africa 7 n o nsiti Figure 1.5: Regional breakdown of vulnerable employment 9 a Figure 1.6: Composition of GDP by sector (SSA), 2014 10 Tr Gs - Figure 1.7: Inequality in Africa across subregions, 2015 11 D S Figure 1.8: Developing world GHI scores (1990, 2015) 12 3/ 6 0 Figure 1.9: Progress in reducing hunger in Africa, (1990, 2015) 13 2 a d Figure 2.1: Progress in net enrolment rate, 2013 17 n e g A Figure 2.2: Gender parity index in primary education 18 o Gs t Figure 2.3: Distribution of countries by distance to NER target in 2013 19 D M Figure 2.4: Primary completion: percentage point increase from 1990 21 Figure 2.5: Achievement towards the literacy target, 2000-2012 23 Figure 2.6: Youth literacy rate, 2012 23 Figure 3.1: Gender parity across levels of education before and during the MDG implementation period 28 Figure 3.2: Performance of countries that achieved gender parity by 2005 29 Figure 3.3: Labour force participation rates across regions and gender in Africa 31 Figure 3.4: Access to credit in 2014 32 Figure 3.5: Progress in women’s representation in parliament across countries 34 Figure 4.1: Child mortality rates by region 40 Figure 4.2: Infant mortality rates by region 41 Figure 4.3: Child mortality rates in countries that surpassed the MDG target 41 Figure 4.4: High-Infant-Mortality countries with largest declines in MDG period 42 Figure 4.5: Trends in Infant mortality rates in countries with largest declines 42 Figure 4.6: Percentage decline in child mortality 1991-2016 43 Figure 4.7: Sample trends in infant mortality decline 44 Figure 4.8: Child mortality rates in countries that made insufficient progress towards the MDG target 44 Figure 4.9: Child mortality rates in countries with least progress towards MDG target 45 Figure 4.10: High-Infant-Mortality countries with smallest declines in MDG period 45 Figure 5.1: Maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by region 1990 and 2015 and percentage change in MMR between 1990 and 2015 47 Figure 5.2: Maternal mortality ratio by African countries: 1990, 2015 and target (per 100,000 live v births) 49 Figure 5.3: Percentage of births attended by skilled health personnel 51 M Figure 5.4: Contraceptive prevalence rate by type of method 2015 53 D G Figure 5.5: Adolescent birthrate by region, 1990 and 2012 54 s to Figure 5.6: Unmet need for family planning (Women aged 15 to 49) 55 Ag e n Figure 5.7: Estimates of unmet need for family planning among married or in-union women d a 2 aged 15-49, 2015 56 0 6 3 Figure 6.1: Progress in ART coverage among people with advanced HIV infection between 2009 /S D G and 2011 60 s - T Figure 6.2: Evolution of correlations of HIV prevalence with poverty and with inequality 64 ra n Figure 7.1: Carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions (metric tonnes of CO per capita) 68 sitio 2 2 n Figure 7.2: Terrestrial and marine areas protected, as percentage of total territorial area 69 Re p o Figure 7.3: Proportion of population using an improved water source, total, 1990 and 2015 72 rt 2 Figure 7.4: Proportion of population using an improved water source by place of residence 01 6 (urban, rural) in 2015 73 Figure 7.5: Proportion of the population using improved sanitation facilities, total, 2015 75 Figure 7.6: Proportion of the population using improved sanitation facilities, urban and rural 76 Figure 7.7: Proportion of urban population living in slums, 2014 78 Figure 8.1: Index of international commodity prices (base value at 2005=100), 2005-2016 81 Figure 8.2: Regional share of total net ODA disbursements from OECD/DAC countries, 1990-2014 82 Figure 8.3: Net ODA from OECD/DAC countries as percentage of GNI, 2013 and 2014 84 Figure 8.4: Net ODA disbursements from OECD/DAC countries, to African LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS, 2000-2014 85 Figure 8.5: Cumulative ODA to African LLDCs and SIDS, 1990-2013 86 Figure 8.6: Projected ODA (CPA) to vulnerable groups (base value at 2000=100), 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018 87 Figure 8.7: Proportion of developed country imports (by value and excluding arms) from developing countries and LDCs admitted duty-free, 1996-2014 88 Figure 8.8: Debt relief committed under HIPC and MDRI Initiatives for African countries 89 Figure 8.9: Debt service as percentage of exports of goods and services and net income, 1990-2013 90 Figure 8.10: Estimated fixed-telephone subscriptions, mobile subscriptions and Internet users per 100 inhabitants in Africa, 1990-2014 91 Tables vi Table 1.1: Youth unemployment in Africa by sex 8 Table 5.1: Percentage reduction in MMR by African countries between 1990 and 2015 48 6 01 Table 5.2: Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (Percentage) 50 2 ort Table 5.3: Contraceptive prevalence rate (Percentage of women aged 15 to 49 years, married or p e R in union, who are using any method of contraception) 52 n o nsiti Table 5.4: Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit) by African regions 55 a Table 6.1: Evolution of progress in combat against HIV (Indicator 6.1 a & b) 59 Tr Gs - Table 6.2: Evolution of progress in combating malaria (Indicator 6.6) 61 D S Table 6.3: Incidence, prevalence and deaths for tuberculosis in Africa and in the world 62 3/ 6 0 Table 6.4: Performance in detection and treatment of tuberculosis under DOTS protocol 63 2 a d Table 7.1: Terrestrial and marine areas protected as percentage of total territorial area 70 n e g A Table 7.2: Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source (Percentage) 71 o Gs t Table 7.3: Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility (Percentage) 74 D M Table 7.4: Proportion of urban population living in slums (Percentage) 77 Table 9.1: Clusters responsible for implementing the SDGs in Zimbabwe 105 Table 9.2: Implementation of the SDGs in Rwanda: milestones and timelines 106 Table 9.3: Institutional arrangements for SDG implementation in Rwanda 106 Boxes Box 1.1: Integrated strategies for poverty reduction in Algeria. 5 Box 3.1: Progress on gender parity in Algeria. 33 Box 6.1: The Kenya HIV Prevention Revolution Road Map 65 Box 9.1: Ethiopia’s central planning agency 101 Box 9.2: Other transition experiences 104 vii Foreword The 2016 report represents a transition from the raise questions about the sustainability of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to the new progress achieved to date and reinforce the call for continental and global sustainable development structural transformation and a sustainable approach agenda: African Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Agenda to development. for Sustainable Development. The report takes stock of Africa’s performance on the MDGs and reflects on In this context, the adoption of Africa’s Agenda 2063 the opportunities and challenges associated with the in January 2015 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable implementation of Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development in September of the same year was both Development Goals (SDGs). timely and appropriate. These Agendas will shape the development pathway of Africa for the foreseeable The momentum gained and bottlenecks identified by future, particularly its aspirations for sustained and countries in their march to eradicate poverty and build inclusive economic growth, poverty eradication and inclusive and safe societies, will invariably influence structural transformation. their performance on Agenda 2063 and the new global development framework. Our stocktaking analysis of By reaffirming the centrality of economic, social and Africa’s performance on the MDGs reveals that while environmental sustainability, as well as gender equality performance has been uneven among countries, to development, the two initiatives redefine the during the latter years and through concerted efforts, parameters of traditional development agendas which there was general accelerated progress. have typically been weak on sustainability and structural transformation. The experiences of emerging countries Nonetheless, there is also concerning evidence provide useful lessons for all developing countries of performance slow-down, particularly in access because they bring into sharp relief the wisdom of to water and sanitation, the adverse impact of pursuing a transformation agenda that is anchored by extreme weather conditions due to climate change sustainable development and inclusion. and the urgency of tackling the continents youth unemployment and skills deficit. These developments The report underscores the importance of institutions mobilize internal and external resources, strengthen viii in the implementation of a sustainable development capacities and facilitate the requisite technology agenda. The interrelatedness of the Agenda 2063 development and transfer for the implementation of 6 1 0 and the sustainable development goals, targets and Africa’s Agenda 2063 and the SDGs. 2 ort indicators and their cross-sectoral attributes calls for an p e n R institutional architecture that promotes inter-sectoral In addition to resources, realizing the aspirations of o nsiti coordination, leverages multi-disciplinary synergies the new global agenda will require an enabling global Tra and enhances policy coherence. In this context, the governance architecture and policy environment that Gs - report argues that institutional arrangements that is representative, transparent and grounded in the D 3/S tap the collective wisdom of science and indigenous principles of justice and equality. 6 20 communities will strengthen policymaking and enhance a d n the achievement of Africa’s Agenda 2063 and the SDGs. Notwithstanding the challenges, African countries e g A have begun the process of implementing the o Gs t Data deficits undermine country capacities to two complementary agendas, demonstrating the D M establish baselines, track performance indicators and continent’s commitment to transforming African reinforce evidence-based policy-making. The data economies within the framework of sustainable requirements to monitor the large number of goals, development. targets and indicators of the SDGs and Agenda 2063 are immense and beyond the existing resources and We are optimistic that the findings of this report capabilities of most countries. Hence, the call for an will help galvanize local and global support for the African data revolution, with investments in national implementation of the Agenda 2063 priorities and and continetal statistics systems that are imperative sustainable development initiatives at all levels: for effective follow up and review. In this context, continental, national and sub-national. multi-stakeholder partnerships will be critical to Nkosazana Clarice Dlamini Zuma Carlos Lopes Akinwumi A. Adesina Helen Clark Chairperson, United Nations Under- President, Administrator, African Union Commission Secretary-General and African Development United Nations Executive Secretary of ECA Bank Group Development Programme