November 2005 The Impact of Nature: The Aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Contents With a contribution from the Economist Intelligence Unit 1 Executive Summary 3 Overall Economic Consequences and Emerging Issues 8 Overall Insurance-Market Consequences and Emerging Issues Specific Risk and Insurance Issues: 13 Property 16 Marine and Energy 22 Environmental 29 Workers Compensation 31 General Liability 32 Aviation 33 Other Lines 35 Preparation and Recovery 37 Analysis of Coverage for Volunteers Publisher (cid:1)Henry Whiting,Marsh’s Global Risk Practices Editor (cid:1)Meike Olin,CPCU,CIC,Marsh’s National Sales and Marketing Designer (cid:1)Ellen Dukeman,Marsh’s National Sales and Marketing Contributors (cid:1)Joseph Cannizzo,Marsh’s Risk Consulting Practice (cid:1)Paul A.Carleton,CIC,CRM,CPCU,Marsh’s Casualty Practice (cid:1)Katherine Doyle,Marsh’s FINPRO Practice (cid:1)Diane Gallagher,Marsh’s Aviation Practice (cid:1)Gary Guzy,Marsh’s Environmental Practice (cid:1)Lawrence Heim,Marsh’s Environmental Practice (cid:1)Elizabeth Kaiga,Marsh’s Marine & Energy Practice (cid:1)Harry Leff,Marsh’s Risk Consulting Practice (cid:1)Paul McVey,Marsh’s Global Property Claims Practice (cid:1)Mark Nickel,Marsh’s Surety Practice (cid:1)Bob O’Brien,Marsh’s National Property Claims Practice (cid:1)Judith Platt,Marsh’s Alternative Risk Solutions Practice (cid:1)John Rand,Marsh’s Property Practice (cid:1)Matthew Sherwood,Economist Intelligence Unit (cid:1)Chris Smy,Marsh’s Environmental Practice (cid:1)Yolande Wilson,Marsh’s Workers Compensation Practice (cid:1)Jon Wright,Marsh’s Market Information Group Executive Summary In late August and early September 2005,the Gulf Coast was pummeled first by Hurricane Katrina and then by Hurricane Rita.The hurricanes cut The hurricanes a wide swath,with losses spread out over a geographic area the size of England.The first round of damage came primarily from windstorm and cut a wide swath, storm surge.Initial damage was compounded by a range of perils,including the failure of the levees in New Orleans,looting,contamination,and the with losses inability to access damaged property. spread out over But the fallout from these back-to-back storms was by no means limited to those businesses physically located in the Gulf region.Many companies a geographic suffered what might be described as secondary losses.While they,them- selves,sustained no damage,their supply chains were disrupted.They lost area the size their sources of fuel,raw materials,transportation,and other goods and services because the suppliers of these business necessities were damaged. of England. The losses and the long-range implications of Katrina and Rita are becoming clearer,although we may be years from seeing the full story. Nonetheless,certain things have become apparent: (cid:1)The damage to the Gulf Coast may have less of an impact on the economy than at first feared.The Gulf Coast region is not a major contributor to national growth beyond its pivotal role in the oil and gas industry.While the economy is expected to slow in 2006,the factors driving the slow- down predate Katrina and Rita. (cid:1)The impact on the insurance industry will be unevenly distributed. Reinsurers will be particularly hard-hit.That,in turn,may ripple through all coverage lines and cause the recently softening insurance market to make an about face. (cid:1)Both hurricanes,but Katrina in particular,revealed vulnerabilities and failures in the catastrophe models that insurers and reinsurers use to analyze their exposures to loss.Insurers are now trying to price risks with what have proven to be questionable models,and buyers are uncertain about what to expect for pricing and capacity from the insurance market. (cid:1)One of the hardest-hit coverage lines,in terms of losses,has been property insurance.The number of businesses damaged is staggering, with nearly 70,000 in the 10 Louisiana parishes alone.The losses are complex,and there will likely be numerous disputes over the cause of loss and,thus,whether there is coverage for loss.There are strong indications that insurers will be more discriminating in their choice of policyholders and that they will be increasing rates. (cid:1)The marine and energy insurance markets may have been hit even harder than the property insurance market.At one point,more that 80 percent of energy production was shut in.A number of oil rigs and refineries were damaged or lost.Rate reductions have virtually disappeared,and increased pricing seems to be the likely trend. 1 (cid:1)The environmental picture is equally grim—picture 1,000 football fields stacked 50 feet deep in debris.The Environmental Protection Agency is still assessing the impact of Katrina and Rita on 54 Superfund sites on its National Priorities List.Again,upward pressure on pricing seems inevitable. (cid:1)Workers compensation will be affected not so much by the storms themselves,but by the aftermath,particularly with businesses that have employees involved in recovery efforts,which increases the potential for both injuries and illnesses.In addition,some businesses have provided their employees displaced by the storm damage with such benefits as food and shelter.Those businesses will find themselves paying workers compensation premiums for the value of those benefits. (cid:1)Other coverage lines are less likely to be affected directly by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,both in terms of losses and impact on pricing.However, there are indications that reinsurers may be increasing prices across the board.This,in turn,would push rates up even for coverage lines that saw few or no claims arising out of the hurricanes. (cid:1)The impact of Hurricane Wilma will only exacerbate the influences of Katrina and Rita on the insurance marketplace.At this point,damage estimates range as high as $10 billion from Wilma alone. (cid:1)As regards many lines of insurance,we may be moving from a buyers’ market back to a sellers’ market.Businesses would be well-served by starting the renewal process as early as possible,meeting face to face with insurers,and being prepared to “sell”their exposures to insurers. (cid:1)There are also steps that businesses can take to make themselves less vulnerable to future storms and other catastrophes,such as having a loss-management plan in place,performing a natural-hazards risk assessment,and establishing plans for emergency response and business continuity.And these steps will also help businesses be more attractive to insurers. 2 Overall Economic Consequences and Emerging Issues The most active Atlantic hurricane season since 1933 has had a signifi- cant impact on the world economy.Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,which disrupted oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico in August and September 2005,were especially significant because they drove up the global price of oil.This marked a change: The rise in energy prices over the past three years was primarily the result of demand factors.But in September,prices rose because of supply constraints.At a time when there is little spare capacity globally for either crude oil or refined products, the hurricanes took a heavy toll on oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for one-quarter of total U.S.output.And it is taking a long time for the industry to recover.A month after Hurricane Rita hit Texas and Louisiana,65 percent of crude oil production in the Gulf and 54 percent of natural gas output in the area remain shut in,according to the U.S.Energy Information Administration,a federal agency. That said,even at the height of production outages,there was no global shortage of crude oil,as OPEC—the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries—was able to make up entirely for lost output in the Gulf of Mexico.Releases of crude oil stocks by the U.S.federal government and the International Energy Agency were also more than enough to meet demand and have actually caused prices for oil to fall from the highs recorded in September.In terms of the broad global balance of oil demand and supply,therefore,Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were only episodes in a much bigger story of strains in the global oil market.By contrast,the market for refined products was more heavily affected by the hurricanes, which rendered several refineries inoperable.There is even less spare global capacity for refining than for oil,and around one-tenth of U.S. refinery capacity in the Gulf remained off stream as of the end of October. Although oil prices have fallen since their peak in September,the increase in energy prices at the retail level in the United States and Europe has renewed concern among investors about rising inflation.The U.S.economy may be strong enough to withstand a further tightening of monetary policy, but other leading developed economies are still struggling to achieve even modest growth.If interest rates have to rise to curb inflation,this could result in a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the United States and lead to further stagnation in Europe.An increase in interest rates would certainly hit emerging economic markets—particularly those that depend on exports to the United States and Europe or that must roll over substantial amounts of debt. First-Order Effects of the Hurricanes on the U.S.Economy With the United States serving as one of the main engines of global growth in recent years,any catastrophe that could derail the U.S.economy is a major concern for the world.Yet the first-order effects of Hurricanes 3 Katrina and Rita on U.S.economic growth will be much less than some analysts had expected immediately after the storms’ landfall.Admittedly, the human cost of the hurricanes is considerable.Yet from an economic perspective,natural disasters historically have had remarkably little Hurricane Katrina impact on economic performance in the United States.Normally,there is an immediate short-term drop in activity followed by a rebound as caused far more reconstruction gets under way. monetary damage Hurricane Katrina caused far more monetary damage than any single natural disaster in U.S.history; yet the storm struck one of the poorest than any single regions of the country,one that is not a major contributor to national growth beyond its pivotal role in the oil and gas industry.Some of the natural disaster larger estimates for job losses ignore the fact that a substantial amount of economic activity is largely relocating to other regions of the United in U.S. history…. States.Indeed,nearby urban centers that escaped the storm damage have been booming.Although of small comfort for those whose livelihoods have been destroyed in the Gulf area,the catastrophe will boost economic activity elsewhere. The effect of the rebuilding efforts on national growth will also be minor. The increase in federal government spending to help with relief efforts and reconstruction could reach US$100 billion in fiscal year 2006 (October 2005 through September 2006).This is equal to less than 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP),however,and will be spread out over the year.It will also be spent almost entirely within the Gulf Coast region,primarily in Louisiana and Mississippi.While output in these areas will eventually rebound,it will have little effect nationally,especially given the resultant rise in government borrowing and the likely impact on interest rates. Second-Order Effects of the Hurricanes on the U.S.Economy The U.S.economy is expected to slow in 2006,a result primarily of factors that predate Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.The continued monetary tightening is likely to have a greater effect on the financial health of the personal and corporate sectors than the rise in energy prices.In general, personal debt relative to income is high,making consumers vulnerable to rising interest rates.A greater share of personal income will need to be directed toward debt service,which will increasingly squeeze consumer spending,particularly in 2006. This does not mean that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are not having an economic impact.By causing a spike in oil prices,which quickly fed through to increases in gasoline prices at the pump,the storms have accelerated a decline in consumer confidence.The increase this year in energy prices is clearly having an effect on consumers,and this was the case even before the storms hit.Retail sales in August declined on an annualized basis by more than any previous month since the 2001 recession,and sales of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles and light trucks slumped badly in that month. 4 The Federal Reserve Board has been raising short-term rates over the past year and a half,but 275 basis points (bps) of tightening have failed to feed through to long-term interest rates.There are many reasons for the flattening of the yield curve,but one factor holding down long-term rates has been bullishness by bond investors’ betting on two events.They have been expecting,in the short run,that the Fed would ease back on the tightening process and,in the long run,that the low-inflation environ- ment in the United States in recent years would continue.But with 12-month inflation rising to 4.7 percent in September and showing no signs of letting up,the Fed is quite anxious to move rates to a more neutral setting—where monetary policy neither stimulates nor curbs growth.This implies another 125 bps of tightening,according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. It appears that the yield curve is finally beginning to steepen,now that financial markets have been spooked by accelerating inflation in the wake of Katrina and Rita and recent “hawkish”statements by Fed officials.Higher rates will feed into the mortgage market,which has been sustaining another inflated-asset market: housing.With real wages actually falling for most of the year,the housing market has underpinned strong consumer demand,as Americans rely on equity withdrawal from their houses to finance their appetite for consumer goods.There are initial signs that the housing market may be leveling off,and U.S.con- sumers are increasingly being squeezed by rising energy and debt-service costs.Thus,it appears inevitable that there will be a slowdown in growth to below 3 percent in 2006 from the 3.5 percent projected for 2005. There are also risks to the Fed’s stance.A tighter monetary policy could trigger a sharp correction in asset prices,particularly in the housing market and in the bond market where prices are exceptionally high (and yields low).In 1994,monetary tightening caused a bond market shakeout so severe that long-term interest rates rose by over 200 bps,the economy slowed markedly,and the Federal Reserve was forced to reverse course and cut interest rates.The risks,if anything,are greater this time.The private debt burden is higher,personal-sector balance sheets are reliant on house prices remaining high,and the bond market looks even more overbought.Even though it would be unduly pessimistic to assume that monetary policy tightening will cause serious economic problems later in 2006,it would also be rash to rule out such a possibility. Supply Chains While the main macroeconomic impact of the hurricanes will be seen in slowing output growth and higher interest rates,few businesses will have been unaffected by the disruption caused to supply chains in the United States and across the globe.But until Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast,few may have understood the importance of the region’s ports to the nation’s supply chain.How many knew that a quarter of the country’s stocks of green coffee beans are held at the Port of New Orleans—one of the world’s 5 busiest—or that half of the London Metal Exchange’s reserves of zinc were warehoused there? Rita further revealed the importance of such ports as Lake Charles,Louisiana,and Beaumont,Texas. With the worst of With the worst of the disruptions seemingly behind them,U.S.businesses are having to rethink how they do business,adjusting supply chains to the disruptions take into account future risks.The problem is not simply to keep lines of communication open with suppliers and customers.A leading sporting seemingly behind goods and apparel company found this out the hard way.The company’s production and retail distribution operations emerged virtually unscathed them, U.S. busi- from direct damage wrought by Katrina.But the firm relied heavily on the port at Gulfport,Mississippi,for importing fabric used in production at nesses are having facilities in Mexico,Central America,and the Caribbean and then bringing finished product to U.S.markets.The company lost more than 40 containers to rethink how of product at Gulfport. they do business, It is beneficial for the economy that U.S.companies are again focused on managing risks to their supply chains.But firms will have to be careful not adjusting supply to become complacent if 2005 is followed by a year or two of relatively few disruptions.This was the case in 2001,when the September 11 terrorist chains to take attacks brought supply-chain concerns to the fore,only for contingency planning to lessen in importance in subsequent years.But as the 2005 into account hurricane season has shown,contingency planning has become a key element of corporate strategy.No one knows what the next major future risks. disruption to the supply chain might be—perhaps an earthquake or bird flu—and it might just emanate from the other side of the globe. Gulf Coast U.S.businesses and consumers generally may be looking ahead,but it will be difficult for the communities of southern Louisiana,Mississippi,and Alabama to forget the summer of 2005.With estimates of the total repair bill from Katrina alone approaching $200 billion—more than the gross annual output of the region—it is clear that the devastation is immense. Local governments throughout the region are struggling,and some have had to lay off most of their workers.Many residents are waiting for the restoration of basic services before returning,while municipalities cannot afford to run schools and public works departments for a lack of tax revenue.The state government in Louisiana estimates that Katrina and Rita cost local authorities $3.5 billion in lost revenues,with state coffers taking a hit of $1.5 billion; and the local economies continue to suffer.By law,the Federal Emergency Management Agency will pay up to 75 percent of the costs of cleanup and rebuilding incurred by local authorities,but even the remaining 25 percent is too much for many cash-strapped city governments. But President George W.Bush has promised that the federal government will do “whatever it takes”to rebuild New Orleans and the surrounding 6 region.Yet even with these resources at its disposal,the region will never be quite the same.New Orleans,a city of fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and a metropolitan area population of 1.3 million,faces the likelihood that many of its residents will choose not to return.City officials have already announced that up to 50,000 out of 180,000 homes in the city may have to be bulldozed.Although some in Washington are beginning to wonder if the price tag for the cleanup and rebuilding is too high,the funds will begin to flood in; and slowly,the region will recover. Industrial Sectors—Winners and Losers Just as some regions have actually benefited in the short run from the Gulf Coast’s misery,some industries are set to benefit from the hurricanes, while others will be hurt.But even within some high-profile sectors,there will be “winners”and “losers.”In the oil industry,some firms will not be able to take full advantage of higher prices for crude,given the many offshore oil rigs that were lost.Furthermore,of the 20 refineries shut down by Katrina and Rita,only 9 are currently operating at full capacity. But firms that service the industry—for instance,by repairing rigs—are doing a booming business.And even those companies that suffered direct losses from storm damage are experiencing strong earnings growth.But record profits are likely to come to an end as energy prices begin to recede in 2006 and 2007. Retailers would seem to be under threat from the effects of the storms and the impending slowdown in the economy.But in the short run,sales are actually holding up,even in the South,when compared with a year ago.Again,winners and losers will depend on individual firms and their ability to manage disruptions to their businesses.And here,a general trend is emerging: In many industries,the winners will be those companies that have appropriate risk-adjusted supply chains and strategies in place to deal with the looming economic slowdown. Impact on the Insurance Sector The direct impact of the 2005 hurricane season on the insurance industry will still take some time to sort out.According to estimates from Risk Management Solutions,Katrina will eventually account for $40 billion to $60 billion in insured losses; Rita,somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 billion to $7 billion; and Wilma,$6 billion to $10 billion.Most industry observers expect reinsurers to take the brunt of these losses.And unlike past storms,Katrina will probably result in far more losses on commercial lines than on personal lines.It would seem that premiums are set to increase substantially.But just how much will premiums be able to go up in the midst of a potentially sharp economic slowdown? With corporate profit sheets likely taking a hit in 2006,Katrina’s impact could last even longer than initially thought. Editor’s note: This section was contributed by the Economist Intelligence Unit. 7 Overall Insurance-Market Consequences and Emerging Issues In the aftermath of the costliest hurricane season on record—one that continues to wreak havoc on the Gulf Coast—we are left a roiled insurance market.At the time of publication,just two months after Hurricane Katrina and days after Hurricane Wilma,the insurance industry is facing a number of substantial issues whose outcomes will significantly affect the final impact the hurricanes have on insurers and insureds.There are few certainties among all the conjecture of industry professionals regarding the final impact of Katrina,Rita,and Wilma; however,there are a few issues on which we can all agree: 1. The burden of insurance losses among insurers will not be evenly distributed. 2. Coverage issues and reinsurance disputes will significantly affect final losses incurred. 3. Premium rates and capacity for all major property lines will be affected,with potential fallout for other coverage lines. Hurricane Wilma made landfall in the Gulf Coast as this report was heading to press and,therefore,too late for inclusion as part of the overall discussion in this report.Early estimates are that Wilma caused between $2 billion and $10 billion in insured losses,potentially placing it alongside Rita in terms of financial impact. Katrina: Uncertainty and Contradiction On such issues as risk estimates,the burden of losses,and rate impacts, it seems that no two insurance-industry opinions concur.Catastrophic modelers estimate potential insured losses from Katrina that range from a low of US$26 billion (EQECAT) to a high of US$60 billion (Risk Management Solutions).Some insurers’ executives claim that rates will go up across the board; some insurance analysts project a slowdown of insurance-market softening and,at most,a short-lived hard-insurance- market effect.Standard & Poor’s (S&P) believes that reinsurers will bear the largest share of Katrina’s costs,as a single storm involves only a single insured retention and puts the reinsurance industry on negative outlook.Analysts at Dowling & Partners Securities,LLC,indicate that as cost estimates rise above US$40 billion,the finite limits provided by reinsurers can be “blown through the top,”redistributing the loss burden back to primary insurers. While the total magnitude of losses will not be known for some time, a significant discrepancy exists between early estimates by individual insurers and aggregate industry estimates.Historically,a greater percentage of the burden from hurricane-related losses has fallen on the personal lines insurance market; however,significant commercial industries affected 8