Nobutaka Fukuda Marriage and Fertility Behaviour in Japan Economic Status and Value-Orientation Marriage and Fertility Behaviour in Japan Nobutaka Fukuda Marriage and Fertility Behaviour in Japan Economic Status and Value-Orientation 1 3 Nobutaka Fukuda Tohoku University Sendai Miyagi Japan ISBN 978-981-10-0292-2 ISBN 978-981-10-0294-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-0294-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015958326 © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by SpringerNature The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media Singapore Pte Ltd. Sirogane mo Kugane mo tama mo Nanisemuni Masareru takara Ko ni sikame ya mo - (Man’yo-shu¯, V. xi) My translation What is the use Of securing silver Or gold or sapphire? What can be more precious Than a jewel of a child? Acknowledgements The roots of this book go back to my doctoral thesis at the University of Oxford, and I wish to express great thanks to all the people who have contributed to its evolution over several years. I would first like to thank my supervisors at Oxford: David Colman, Richard Smith, and Sheila Johansson. Their critical and construc- tive comments undoubtedly enriched and heightened the scope of this study. My deep gratitude also goes to Ron Lesthaeghe and Osamu Saito for their very insightful comments and suggestions on family formation in Europe and Japan. I am also grateful to good fellows and colleagues: Eva Bernhardt, Jonathan Bradshaw, Ann Gauthier, Jenny Gierveld, Roger Goodman, Andrew Hinde, John Hobcraft, Jan Hoem, Dirk van de Kaa, John Landers, James McMullen, Arthur Stockwin, Ann Waswo, Christopher Wilson, and Anthony Wrigley. They all gener- ously gave me helpful advice and comments on this study. I started to write this book at Chicago and finished it at Berkeley. I would like to thank Kazuo Yamaguchi (University of Chicago) and John Lie (University of California, Berkeley) for many stimulating conversations concerning this study and for giving me a wonderful research environment. My research stays at Chicago and Berkeley were financially supported by the Abe Fellowship, and the data I used in this study are part of the Japanese Generations and Gender Project. I extend my gratitude to all members of this research project. I am also indebted to Margaret Shade for her editorial help. I would finally like to express thanks to Ryoichi Miwa for his warm support and kindness. vii Contents 1 Introduction ................................................ 1 1.1 Demographic Developments in Developed Countries ........... 1 1.2 Social Science and Demographic Behaviour .................. 3 1.3 Marriage and Childbearing Patterns in Japan ................. 4 1.4 Organization of the Book ................................. 6 References .................................................. 7 2 Economic and Ideational Theories of Marriage and Fertility Behaviour .................................................. 11 2.1 Introduction ........................................... 11 2.2 Phenomenological Aspects of the Second Demographic Transition ............................................. 13 2.3 Economic Theories of Marriage and Fertility Behaviour ........ 16 2.4 Second Demographic Transition as Ideational Theory .......... 20 2.5 Demographic Behaviour as a Purposive Action ................ 23 2.6 Two Types of Rationality in Social Action ................... 26 2.7 The Institutional Environment for Demographic Behaviour ...... 27 2.8 Conclusion ............................................ 30 References .................................................. 31 3 Economic Change, Value Shift and Marriage Behaviour ........... 41 3.1 Introduction ........................................... 41 3.2 Changing Features of Japanese Marriage Patterns .............. 42 3.3 Economic and Attitudinal Changes in Japan .................. 47 3.4 Data and Method for the Analysis of Marriage Behaviour ....... 53 3.4.1 Socio-economic Variables ......................... 55 3.4.2 Ideational and Attitudinal Variables .................. 56 3.4.3 Family-Related Variables .......................... 57 3.4.4 Control Variables ................................ 58 ix x Contents 3.5 Descriptive Analysis of Marriage Patterns .................... 59 3.6 Finding Latent Classes for Marriage Behaviour ............... 64 3.7 Results of the Latent Class Event-History Analysis of Marriage .... 66 3.8 A Change in the Attitudes of Unmarried People ............... 72 3.9 Results of the Logistic Latent Class Analysis of Marriage ....... 75 3.10 Conclusion ............................................ 84 References .................................................. 85 4 Economic Change, Value Shift and Fertility Behaviour ............ 89 4.1 Introduction ........................................... 89 4.2 Fertility Trends in Japan .................................. 90 4.3 Social Background of Fertility Change ...................... 94 4.4 Data, Method and Variables for the Analysis of Fertility Behaviour ............................................. 98 4.4.1 Socio-economic Variables ......................... 98 4.4.2 Ideational and Attitudinal Variables .................. 100 4.4.3 Control Variables ................................ 100 4.5 Descriptive Analysis of Fertility Patterns ..................... 102 4.6 Finding Latent Classes for Fertility Behaviour ................ 106 4.7 Results of the Latent Class Event-History Analysis of Childbirth ........................................... 109 4.8 An Impact of Childbirth on Attitudes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 4.9 Results of the Logistic Latent Class Regression of Childbirth .... 119 4.10 Conclusion ............................................ 127 References .................................................. 128 5 Stability and Change in Value-Orientations ...................... 131 5.1 Introduction ........................................... 131 5.2 Socio-economic Development and Value Change .............. 132 5.3 Data, Method, and Variables for the Analysis of Attitudinal Change .................................... 138 5.3.1 Attitudinal Dependent Variables .................... 140 5.3.2 Age, Cohort, and Period Variables ................... 143 5.3.3 Other Variables .................................. 143 5.4 Descriptive Analysis of Attitudinal Change ................... 145 5.5 Results of the HACP Analysis of Attitudinal Change ........... 150 5.6 Conclusion ............................................ 158 References .................................................. 159 6 Conclusion ................................................. 163 6.1 Introduction ........................................... 163 6.2 Rationality and Demographic Behaviour ..................... 164 6.3 Marriage Behaviour in Contemporary Japan .................. 165 6.4 Fertility Behaviour in Contemporary Japan ................... 166 Contents xi 6.5 Social Change and a Value Shift ........................... 167 6.6 Implications for the Economic Theory of Family Formation ..... 168 6.7 Implications for the Ideational Theory of Family Formation ..... 170 6.8 Towards a Comparative Institutional Analysis of Marriage and Fertility ........................................... 171 References .................................................. 172 Author Index .................................................. 175 Subject Index .................................................. 179 Author Biography Nobutaka Fukuda is a professor at Tohoku University, Japan, where he teaches Sociology and Social Statistics. He was a visiting researcher at the University of Oxford in 2000, the University of Chicago in 2012, and the University of California, Berkeley, in 2014. After obtaining his BA in Economics and MA in Sociology of Education in Japan, he continued his research into Japanese Family at the University of Oxford. He received his doctorate from the University of Oxford, and writes many articles and books concerning Japanese family. He is one of the leading researchers on low fertility in Japan, and studies the relation between family formation and idea- tional change caused by socio-economic development. He is currently working on a comparative study of partnership, fertility, and intergenerational relations between Japan and other developed countries. xiii