Folkert de Jong Marine Eutrophication in Perspective Folkert de Jong Marine Eutrophication in Perspective On the Relevance of Ecology for Environmental Policy With 20 Figures DR.FOLKERT DE JONG International Wadden Sea Secretariat CWSS Virchowstr. 1 26382 Wilhelmshaven Deutschland e-mail: [email protected] Library of Congress Control Number: 2006923640 ISBN-10 3-540-33647-8 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN-13 978-3-540-33647-1 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006 Printed in The Netherlands The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: Erich Kirchner Typesetting: camera-ready by author Production: Christine Jacobi Printing: Krips bv, Meppel Binding: Stürtz AG, Würzburg Printed on acid-free paper 30/2133/cj 5 4 3 2 1 0 Preface and acknowledgements The idea for this book, in which the results of a Ph.D.-study, carried out at the University of Groningen (NL), are presented, has its roots in my personal experi- ences with international marine pollution policies, in which I became profession- ally involved in the mid 1980s. At that time, marine eutrophication was high on the political agenda in Northwest Europe, and it was exciting to be part of the in- tensive political activities that happened between 1985 and 1990. After that, I be- came intrigued by the very rapidly decreasing political interest in the issue, while scientific and management activities continued at a high level of intensity. This confronted me with questions about the compatibility of the political and scientific processes and the relevance of ecology for environmental policy. These themes, as well as the fascinating history of marine eutrophication, are what this study is about. I am much indebted to my supervisors Prof. Dr. Wim Wolff, Prof. Dr. Francis- cus Colijn and Dr. Henny van der Windt, who provided me with valuable ideas and suggestions for both the contents and the structure of this book and, most of all, for their stimulating support all along the way. I am also grateful to Dr. Wolf- gang Hickel for his extensive comments on first drafts of the manuscript. I would furthermore like to thank the members of the review committee, Prof. Dr. Rutger Rosenberg, Prof. Dr. Victor de Jonge and Prof. Dr. Michiel Herweijer, for critically reading the final manuscript. Special thanks go to Jens Brøgger Jensen, Dr. Gerhard Cadée, Prof. Dr. Victor de Jonge, Dr. Winfried Gieskes and Dr. Karel Essink, with whom I have held per- sonal interviews. I would also like to thank Dr. Justus van Beusekom, who has taught me a lot about the science of marine eutrophication, as well as Prof. Dr. Karsten Reise for providing useful advice at the start of the project. What would a scientific study be without libraries? I am very grateful for the excellent support by the librarians of Biological Centre, Haren; University of Groningen; University of Kiel; Scripps Institute, La Jolla; NIOZ, Texel; ICES, Copenhagen; Terramare, Wilhelmshaven; Senckenberg Institute, Wilhelmshaven; VI Preface and acknowledgements Bundesforschungsanstalt für Fischerei, Hamburg; Bundesanstalt für Seeschifffart und Hydrography, Hamburg; Environment Ministry, Oslo; Secretariat Helsinki Commission, Helsinki; English Nature, Peterborough. Special thanks go furthermore to Roger Staves, Prof. Dr. Mike Elliott and Ni- cola Ricklefs for correcting my English, and to Gerold Lüerßen for his support in drawing maps and figures. Finally, I thank my wife Tessy and my sons Daniel and Jonathan for their pa- tience and their conviction that one day the work would really be finalised. Acronyms ACE Advisory Committee on Ecosystems (ICES) ACME Advisory Committee on the Marine Enionment (ICES) ACMP Advisory Committee on Marine Pollution (ICES) ASMO Assessment and Monitoring Committee (OSPAR) BAH Helgoland Marine Station BMP Baltic Monitoring Programme (Helcom) BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand C Carbon CEC Commission of the European Communities (European Commis- sion) CFC ChloroFluoroCarbons CPR Continuous Plankton Recorder DIN Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen DIP Dissolved Inorganic Phosphorous DPEUT Drafting Panel on Eutrophication (OSPAR) DSP Diarrhetic Shellfish Poisoning EC European Community EcoQO Ecological Quality Objective EEC European Economic Community EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EQO Environmental Quality Objective EU European Union EUC Eutrophication Committee (OSPAR) FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation (UN) GESAMP Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Pollution (UN) HAB Harmful Algal Blooms Helcom Helsinki Commission ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea IGO Intergovernmental Organisation IMM Intermediate North Sea Ministerial Meeting INSC-1 1st International North Sea Conference (Bremen, 1984) INSC-2 2nd International North Sea Conference (London, 1987) INSC-3 3rd International North Sea Conference (The Hague, 1990) INSC-4 4th International North Sea Conference (Copenhagen, 1995) INSC-5 5th International North Sea Conference (Bergen, 2002) IOC International Oceanographic Committee (UN) VIII Acronyms IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JAMP Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme (OSPAR) JMG Joint Monitoring Group (OSPAR) JMP Joint Monitoring Programme (OSPAR) MCWG Marine Chemistry Working Group (ICES) MMP Monitoring Master Plan MPB Marine Pollution Bulletin N Nitrogen NAO[I] North Atlantic Oscillation [Index] NAEP National Agency for Environment Protection (DK) NERC National Environment Research Council (UK) NERI National Environment Research Institute (DK) NEUT Nutrients and Eutrophication Committee (OSPAR) NIOZ Nederlands Institute for Sea Research NSTF North Sea Task Force (OSPAR and ICES) NUT Nutrient Working Group (OSPAR) OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Oscom Oslo Commission OSPAR concerning the Oslo and Paris Conventions (before 1992) or the OSPAR Convention (as of 1992) Osparcom Oslo and Paris Commissions (before 1992) or OSPAR Commis- sion (as of 1992) P Phosphorus p.e. population equivalent Parcom Paris Commission PCB Polychlorinated Biphenyl PRAM Programmes and Measures Committee (OSPAR) PSP Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning PWG Policy Working Group (INSC-2) Preparatory Working Group (INSC-3) QSR Quality Status Report RIZA Governmental Institute for Water Purification (NL) SACSA Standing Advisory Committee on Scientific Affairs (Oscom) Si Silicon SIME Substances in the Marine Environment working group (OSPAR) STWG Scientific and Technical Working Group (INSC-2) TWG Technical Working Group (Parcom) UES Uniform Emission Standard UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCHE United Nations Conference on the Human Environment US[A] United States [of America] USEPA US Environmental Protection Agency WFD Water Framework Directive (EU) WHO World Health Oganisation WRc Water Research Centre (UK) Contents 1 Introduction: Ecology for policy.......................................................................1 1.1 Science for policy........................................................................................3 1.1.1 Rational policy-making........................................................................3 1.1.2 The policy life-cycle.............................................................................4 1.2 Science for policy: a myth?..........................................................................6 1.2.1 Contextual factors.................................................................................7 1.2.2 Science in the policy life-cycle.............................................................9 1.3 Matching science and policy........................................................................9 1.4 Aims and structure of the study.................................................................11 2 The art of discharging......................................................................................15 2.1 The sewage problem..................................................................................16 2.1.1 Waste disposal in the marine environment.........................................16 2.1.2 The WHO inventory...........................................................................17 2.2 Water pollution research............................................................................19 2.3 The contribution of ecology.......................................................................20 2.3.1 Computers and modelling...................................................................21 2.3.2 Process control...................................................................................22 2.3.3 Homeostasis.......................................................................................22 2.3.4 Interactions with the physical-chemical environment........................22 2.3.5 Biological indicators...........................................................................23 2.4 Emerging limits..........................................................................................25 2.4.1 Pollution cases....................................................................................25 2.4.2 Waste classification............................................................................26 2.4.3 Recommendations..............................................................................27 2.5 Marine pollution and IGOs........................................................................28 2.5.1 The ICES working group on pollution of the North Sea....................28 2.5.2 The United Nations and marine pollution..........................................29 2.5.3 The NATO North Sea science conference..........................................32 2.6 Pollution control........................................................................................34 2.6.1 The Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment...................34 2.6.2 Marine pollution science-policy networks.........................................35 2.7 Summary and conclusions.........................................................................36 2.7.1 The causes of marine pollution...........................................................36 2.7.2 The role of science.............................................................................37 2.7.3 Public awareness................................................................................38 X Contents 2.7.4 Science and marine pollution management........................................38 2.7.5 Marine pollution science-policy networks.........................................39 3 The discovery of marine eutrophication.........................................................41 3.1 Freshwater Eutrophication.........................................................................42 3.1.1 The OECD survey..............................................................................43 3.1.2 Eutrophication, causes, consequences, correctives............................44 3.1.3 The limiting nutrient controversy.......................................................45 3.2 Marine Eutrophication...............................................................................47 3.2.1 The US West Coast............................................................................47 3.2.2 The N/P ratio......................................................................................48 3.2.3 Red tides.............................................................................................50 3.2.4 The Oslo Fjord...................................................................................53 3.2.5 The North Sea....................................................................................54 3.2.6 The Baltic Sea....................................................................................63 3.2.7 Estuaries and nutrients.......................................................................71 3.3 The relative importance of marine eutrophication.....................................74 3.3.1 The Marine Pollution Bulletin............................................................74 3.3.2 AMBIO..............................................................................................76 3.3.3 Eutrophication in marine pollution textbooks....................................77 3.4 Marine eutrophication and official bodies.................................................79 3.4.1 ICES...................................................................................................80 3.4.2 The Helsinki commission...................................................................85 3.4.3 The German Council on Environmental Affairs................................87 3.5 Summary and conclusions.........................................................................88 3.5.1 The main themes in the study of marine eutrophication.....................89 3.5.2 The relative importance of marine eutrophication research...............92 3.5.3 The assessment of marine eutrophication...........................................93 3.5.4 Marine ecology and marine eutrophication policy.............................93 4 The politics of marine eutrophication.............................................................95 4.1 1981–1985: The assembly of a problem....................................................98 4.1.1 Oxygen depletion in the Skagerrak-Kattegat and Belt areas..............99 4.1.2 Oxygen depletion in the German Bight............................................102 4.1.3 Dutch coastal waters.........................................................................103 4.1.4 International scientific advice..........................................................104 4.1.5 International politics and marine eutrophication..............................109 4.2 1986–1987: Political decision-making....................................................113 4.2.1 Eutrophication in the Southern Bight...............................................114 4.2.2 Scientific advice on marine eutrophication......................................118 4.2.3 Environmental policy principles......................................................126 4.2.4 The science-policy interface: the Nutrient Working Group.............128 4.2.5 The second North Sea Conference...................................................133 4.3 Recapitulation: marine eutrophication constructed..................................137 4.4 1988–1990: Towards the third North Sea Conference.............................139 4.4.1 The 1988 catastrophes......................................................................140 Contents XI 4.4.2 Marine eutrophication reviewed.......................................................143 4.4.3 Science-policy interactions 1988–1990............................................149 4.4.4 Political developments 1988–1990...................................................165 4.5 Summary and conclusions.......................................................................168 4.5.1 The construction of the marine eutrophication problem...................169 4.5.2 Science and political decision-making.............................................170 4.5.3 The implementation of the North Sea Conference decisions............172 4.5.4 Strengthening the science-policy network........................................173 5 The management of marine eutrophication.................................................175 5.1 New knowledge.......................................................................................177 5.1.1 What causes phytoplankton blooms?...............................................178 5.1.2 The impacts of marine eutrophication..............................................187 5.1.3 New knowledge: an analysis............................................................195 5.2 New knowledge and the science-policy interface....................................198 5.2.1 A mandatory programme for nutrient monitoring............................201 5.2.2 Assessment: The 1993 and 2000 Quality Status Reports.................207 5.2.3 Categorizing marine eutrophication.................................................213 5.2.4 Predicting eutrophication effects......................................................232 5.3 Political developments.............................................................................237 5.3.1 The North Sea Conferences..............................................................237 5.3.2 The OSPAR Convention..................................................................240 5.3.3 The European Union........................................................................242 5.4 Summary and conclusions.......................................................................247 5.4.1 New knowledge, justification and uncertainty.................................248 5.4.2 New knowledge and implementation...............................................248 5.4.3 The science-policy interface.............................................................254 5.4.4 New knowledge and new politics.....................................................255 6 Summary, discussion and conclusions..........................................................257 6.1 Marine eutrophication in perspective.......................................................258 6.1.1 The temporal aspect..........................................................................258 6.1.2 The structural aspect.........................................................................260 6.1.3 The normative aspect........................................................................263 6.2 The discrepancy between science and politics.........................................266 6.2.1 The discovery phase.........................................................................266 6.2.2 The decision-making phase..............................................................268 6.2.3 The management phase....................................................................272 6.2.4 Comparison with other cases............................................................276 6.3 The future of rational policy-making.......................................................278 6.3.1 From normal to post-normal science................................................279 6.3.2 Marine eutrophication policies and policy-related science...............282 References..........................................................................................................289 Annex 1...............................................................................................................311