Mapping the Distribution, Abundance and Risk Assessment of Marine Birds in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean: Phase I, Proof of Concept and Techniques Development USFWS Northeast Region Science Seminar Series Webinar – August 8, 2013 Presenters: Beth Gardner Andrew Gilbert Brian Kinlan Dick Veit Outline • Intro and Overview - Beth Gardner [NCSU] • Data Management - Andrew Gilbert [BRI] • Data Review - Dick Veit [CUNY] • Exposure Modeling - Brian Kinlan [NOAA/NCCOS] • Risk Modeling - Beth Gardner [NCSU] Background • Increased interest in sea bird distributions, habitat relationships, and carcass deposition rates – General ecology and management – Oil spills – Off shore wind farms Chris Graythen Background • Off shore wind power garnering lots of interest – Many states have implemented a ~20% renewable energy by ~2020 mandate • Increased risk due to collisions, anthropogenic activities, and habitat alteration Spatial Risks? How do we quantify the potential risks? 1. What species of birds are present in the vicinity of a wind farm and how many? (Exposure) 2. What is the per capita probability of an adverse effect of wind farms on birds of a given species, given that they are present in the area? (Species-Specific Hazard or Sensitivity) 3. How much are the potential adverse impacts from combining (1) and (2) likely to impact the population of each species, given its current status, trends, and ecological traits? (Population Vulnerability) Modified from Crichton (1999) definition Concept Map – Spatial Planning for Marine Bird Risk Assessment Seabirds Environment Oceanographic, Atmospheric, At-Sea Seabird Survey Data Biological, Human Telemetry/tracking data Regional maps Database management • Long-term average patterns Data (“climatologies” ) Data review, QA/QC, Expert opinion • Time-specific observations Population assessment/demography In situ data simultaneous with seabird observations Species-specific ecology/behavior Long-term climate cycles Exposure Local Risk Population Risk Prob(Occurrence) • Probability vs. magnitude Probability vs. Relative Abundance relationship of magnitude Models potential adverse relationship of effects on birds Extreme values population-level using or displaced impacts from project area Habitat Usage, • Risk maps Migration, Movements Action Spatial Planning to Minimize Risk to Seabirds Marine Spatial Planning & Seabirds – Summary of US Atlantic Projects Primary Approx Abbrev. Project Institutions PI's Funding Timeframe Mapping the Distribution, Abundance and Risk Assessment of Marine Birds in the Northwest NCSU, Atlantic Ocean: Phase I, Proof of Concept and NOAA/NCCOS, Gardner, Kinlan, NALCC Techniques Development BRI, CUNY Gilbert, Veit NALCC 2012-2013 DOE, MidAtl BRI, NCSU, CUNY, Williams, Gilbert, Maryland Baseline Mid-Atlantic Baseline Studies Project Duke, et al. Gardner, Veit, et al. DNR 2012-2015 USGS PWRC, USFWS, NCSU, O'Connell, Gilbert, NOAA/NCCOS, Gardner, Kinlan, Compendium Atlantic Seabird Compendium Phases I & II Tufts, BRI, URI Wimer, Ellis, et al. BOEM 2008-2013 AtlMapping Atlantic Seabird Mapping and Modeling NOAA/NCCOS Kinlan BOEM 2013-2016 NOAA/NMFS, AMAPPS AMAPPS USFWS, US Navy Garrison, Palka, et al. BOEM 2010-2013 CUNY, ECOMON/HA Ships of Opportunity Seabird Surveys NOAA/NMFS Veit NOAA 2006-2014 VulnIndex Vulnerability Index Normandeau Willmot, Forcey, Kent BOEM 2012-2013 Statistical Guidelines for Marine Bird Survey Kinlan, Zipkin, StatGuidelines Effort for Hotspot and Coldspot Detection NOAA/NCCOS O'Connell BOEM 2013-2014 NALCC MidAtl Baseline Compendium AMAPPS AtlMapping ECOMON/HA VulnIndex StatGuidelines Concept Map – Spatial Planning for Marine Bird Risk Assessment Seabirds Environment AMAPPS AtlMapping Oceanographic, Atmospheric, Seabird Survey Data MidAtl Baseline ECOMON/HA Compendium Biological, Human StatGuidelines Telemetry/tracking data MidAtl Baseline Regional maps Database management Compendium NALCC • Long-term average patterns Data AtlMapping (“climatologies” ) NALCC Compendium Data review, QA/QC, etc. • Time-specific Compendium MidAtl Baseline StatGuidelines Population assessment/demography VulnIndex In situ data simultaneous with ECOMON/HA seabird observations AMAPPS MidAtl Baseline Species-specific ecology/behavior VulnIndex Compendium ECOMON/HA Climate cycles MidAtl Baseline AtlMapping StatGuidelines Exposure Local Risk Population Risk Compendium Prob(Occurrence) MidAtl Baseline • Probability vs. AtlMapping magnitude VulnIndex Probability vs. Compendium relationship of Relative Abundance MidAtl Baseline magnitude VulnIndex Models potential adverse AtlMapping relationship of effects on birds Extreme values NALCC population-level using or displaced impacts from project area Habitat Usage, MidAtl Baseline Migration, Movements • Risk maps NALCC VulnIndex AtlMapping Action Spatial Planning to Minimize Risk to Seabirds NALCC MidAtl Baseline AtlMapping StatGuidelines 9 NALCC seabird modeling webinar Andrew Gilbert - BRI Data assistance for modelers and Atlantic Seabird Compendium 10 History of Atlantic Seabird Compendium • Need to evaluate seabird distribution for offshore proposals • No centralized repository of seabird data for the U.S. Atlantic. • USFWS funded USGS to catalog seabird datasets in 2005 • USFWS further funded USGS to compile and standardize data into a single database in 2006 • BOEMRE added funds to continue work and add modeling component in 2008-to present • BDBM and Atlantic Modeling projects use data from db • USSG, PWRC maintains database