This page intentionally left blank Mandates and Democracy Sometimes politicians run for office promising one set of policies and then, if they win, they switch to very different ones. Latin American presidents in recent years have frequently run promising to avoid pro-market reforms and harsh economic adjustment, then win and transform immediately into enthu- siastic market reformers. Does it matter when politicians ignore the promises they made and the preferences of their constituents? If politicians want to be reelected or see their party reelected at the end of their term, why would they impose unpopular policies? Susan Stokes explores questions of mandates, promises, and democratic theory in light of the Latin American experience. She develops a model of policy switches and tests it with statistical and qual- itative data from Latin American elections over the last two decades. She con- cludes that politicians may change course because they believe that unpopular policies are best for constituents and hence also will best serve their own po- litical ambitions. Nevertheless, even though good representatives will some- times switch policies, abrupt changes of course tend to erode the quality of democracy. Susan C. Stokes is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy. Professor Stokes is co- editor of Democracy, Accountability, and Representation(1999) and editor of Public Support for Market Reforms in New Democracies(2001). She is the author of Cul- tures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru(1995) and of many arti- cles on democratic theory, political economy, and Latin American politics. Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics General Editor Margaret Levi University of Washington, Seattle Associate Editors Robert H. Bates Harvard University Peter Hall Harvard University Stephen Hanson University of Washington, Seattle Peter Lange Duke University Helen Milner Columbia University Frances Rosenbluth Yale University Susan Stokes University of Chicago Sidney Tarrow Cornell University Other Books in the Series Stefano Bartolini, The Political Mobilization of the European Left, 1860–1980: The Class Cleavage Carles Boix, Political Parties, Growth and Equality: Conservative and Social Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy Catherine Boone, Merchant Capital and the Roots of State Power in Senegal, 1930–1985 Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective Valerie Bunce, Leaving Socialism and Leaving the State: The End of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia Ruth Berins Collier, Paths Toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America Donatella della Porta, Social Movements, Political Violence, and the State Gerald Easter, Reconstructing the State: Personal Networks and Elite Identity Roberto Franzosi, The Puzzle of Strikes: Class and State Strategies in Postwar Italy Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy Miriam Golden, Heroic Defeats: The Politics of Job Loss Frances Hagopian, Traditional Politics and Regime Change in Brazil J. Rogers Hollingsworth and Robert Boyer, eds., Contemporary Capitalism: The Embeddedness of Institutions Ellen Immergut, Health Politics: Interests and Institutions in Western Europe Torben Iversen, Contested Economic Institutions List continues on page following the Index. Mandates and Democracy NEOLIBERALISM BY SURPRISE IN LATIN AMERICA SUSAN C. STOKES University of Chicago           The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom    The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcón 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org ©Susan C. Stokes 2004 First published in printed format 2001 ISBN 0-511-04143-8 eBook ISBN 0-521-80118-4 hardback ISBN 0-521-80511-2 paperback This book is dedicated to the memory of my father, Donald E. Stokes, who opened many paths in the study of democracy, and to the memory of Luis Castro Leyva, who struggled to defend it.