Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in a Developing Country Context: an Indonesian Case Study Arif Budi Rahman This thesis is presented for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy of Curtin University April 2017 Declaration To the best of my knowledge and belief this thesis contains no material previously published by any other person except where due acknowledgment has been made. This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university. Signature : Date : 3 April 2017 ii Table of Contents Declaration .............................................................................................................. ii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... iii List of Tables and Figures............................................................................................. vi ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................... vii Abstract ............................................................................................................. ix Chapter One: Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Statement of Problem .............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Research Objectives and Foci .................................................................................. 4 1.4 Research Significance ............................................................................................. 5 1.5 Organisation of the Thesis ...................................................................................... 6 1.6 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 8 Chapter Two: Literature Review ................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Climate Change and Its Impacts .............................................................................. 9 2.3 The Adaptation Actors: Who and What Adapts .................................................... 12 2.4 Climate Change Adaptation in Practice ................................................................. 15 2.5 The Way to Adapt .................................................................................................. 18 2.6 The Emergence of the Adaptation Agenda: What it Means for Policymakers ...... 19 2.7 Institutional Arrangements Supporting Mainstreaming Adaptation Measures into Development Policies and Programs .................................................................... 21 2.8 Conceptual Framework .......................................................................................... 24 2.9 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 27 Chapter Three: Historical Background and Climate Change Policy Initiatives in Indonesia ............................................................................................ 29 3.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Part One: Historical Background - Socio-Political Systems.................................. 29 3.2.1 Demographic Overview .............................................................................. 31 3.2.2 The Domestic Political System ................................................................... 31 3.2.3 Decentralisation .......................................................................................... 35 3.3 Part Two: Risks, Impacts and Policy ..................................................................... 36 3.3.1 Physical Risks and Climate Change Impacts .............................................. 36 3.3.2 Climate Change Policy Initiatives .............................................................. 38 3.3.3 Institutional Responses to Climate Change ................................................ 41 3.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 42 Chapter Four: Research Methodology ......................................................................... 44 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 44 4.2 Research Design..................................................................................................... 44 4.3 Case Studies ........................................................................................................... 45 4.4 Data Collection ...................................................................................................... 47 4.4.1 Document Analysis ..................................................................................... 48 4.4.2 Participant Observation ............................................................................... 49 4.4.3 Interviews .................................................................................................... 50 iii 4.5 Data Analysis ......................................................................................................... 53 4.6 Limitations of the study ......................................................................................... 54 4.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 55 Chapter Five: Applying Stakeholder Analysis: Case Study of Mainstreaming Adaptation in Indonesia ..................................................................... 56 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 56 5.2 Mainstreaming the Adaptation Policy and Key Stakeholders Analysis ................ 57 5.3 Theoretical Framework: Multi-Stakeholder Influence Mapping (MSIM) and Interest-Influence Matrix (IIM) ............................................................................ 58 5.4 Background ............................................................................................................ 62 5.5 Applying Stakeholder Analysis: Mainstreaming Adaptation ................................ 65 5.5.1 Bappenas (National Development Agency) ................................................ 66 5.5.2 The Ministry of the Environment ............................................................... 72 5.5.3 DNPI (National Climate Change Council) ................................................. 72 5.5.4 The Ministry of Finance.............................................................................. 74 5.5.5 The Ministry of Interiors ............................................................................. 74 5.5.6 Donors and NGOs ....................................................................................... 75 5.5.7 Other Stakeholders ...................................................................................... 76 5.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 77 Chapter Six: Comparing Adaptation Development Strategies: Four Case Studies ..... 81 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 81 6.2 Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation at the Local Level ............................ 81 6.3. Adaptation is Local: a Major Conclusion ............................................................. 83 6.4 General Description of the Study Sites .................................................................. 84 6.5 Local Actors’ Perceptions about the Need for Adaptation Initiatives ................... 93 6.5.1 Leadership ................................................................................................... 93 6.5.2 The Severity of Exposure............................................................................ 95 6.5.3 Third Party Interventions ............................................................................ 97 6.5.4 The Availability of Resources .................................................................... 98 6.6 Conclusion and Reflection ..................................................................................... 99 Chapter Seven: Local Government Efforts in Adaptation to Climate Change: the Case of Semarang ..................................................................................... 105 7.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 105 7.2 Background .......................................................................................................... 106 7.2.1 Governmental Administration in Indonesia .............................................. 106 7.3 Location and Topography .................................................................................... 107 7.4 Impact of Climate Change ................................................................................... 108 7.4.1 Sea Level Rise........................................................................................... 108 7.4.2 Drought and Flood .................................................................................... 110 7.4.3 Land Subsidence and Landslide ................................................................ 111 7.5 Adaptation Actions in Semarang City ................................................................. 112 7.6 Result and Discussion .......................................................................................... 114 7.6.1 Drivers to Mainstreaming ......................................................................... 114 7.6.2 Challenges to Mainstreaming ................................................................... 115 7.7 Explaining Strategies to Overcome Obstacles ..................................................... 123 7.7.1 Mayoral Leadership .................................................................................. 123 7.7.2 Local Heroes ............................................................................................. 124 iv 7.7.3 The Role of Foreign Donors ..................................................................... 126 7.7.4 Partnership with Non-Governmental Actors ............................................ 127 7.7.5 The Effectiveness of the Lead Agency ..................................................... 128 7.8 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 129 Chapter Eight: Social Capital and Grassroots Adaptation Strategies for Flood Hazards in Semarang ...................................................................................... 132 8.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 132 8.2 Social capital and Resilience ............................................................................... 132 8.3 General Background on Floods in Semarang ...................................................... 135 8.4 Study Site .......................................................................................................... 137 8.4.1 Experiences of Flooding ........................................................................... 139 8.4.2 Problems Caused by Floods ...................................................................... 141 8.4.3 The Government’s Response to Floods .................................................... 143 8.5 Planned and Autonomous Adaptation Strategies ................................................. 145 8.6 The Role of Social Capital in Coping with Floods and Disaster Management ... 150 8.6.1 The Role of Bonding Relationships .......................................................... 150 8.6.2 The Role of Bridging Social Capital ......................................................... 152 8.6.3 The Role of Linking Social Capital .......................................................... 154 8.7 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 155 Chapter Nine: Conclusion .......................................................................................... 157 9.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 157 9.2 Summary of Key Findings ................................................................................... 157 9.3 Implications.......................................................................................................... 160 9.4 Contribution of the Research ............................................................................... 161 9.4.1 Theoretical Contribution ........................................................................... 161 9.4.2 Policy Contribution ................................................................................... 162 9.4.3 Contribution to Practice ............................................................................ 162 9.5 Further Studies ..................................................................................................... 163 References .......................................................................................................... 164 Appendix 1 List of Interviews ................................................................................... 189 Appendix 2 Letter of Introduction ............................................................................. 192 v List of Tables and Figures List of Tables Table 1: Comparing Characteristics of Mitigation and Adaptation ............................. 10 Table 2: Chronology of Policy Response to Climate Change in Indonesia ................. 38 Table 3: Major Policy Initiatives related to Climate Change ...................................... 39 Table 4: List of Interviewees ....................................................................................... 51 Table 5: Summary of Interview Questions .................................................................. 52 Table 6: Examples of Coding Classification ............................................................... 54 Table 7: Stakeholders Responsibilities for Mainstreaming ......................................... 63 Table 8: Examples of Adaptation Actions in Pekalongan City ................................... 89 Table 9: Description of Adaptation Actions ............................................................. 112 Table 10: Strategies for Overcoming Obstacles ........................................................ 115 Table 11: Adaptation Efforts in the Study Area ........................................................ 146 List tof Figures Figure 1 Conceptual Framework ................................................................................. 26 Figure 2: Map of Indonesia .......................................................................................... 30 Figure 3: Cross Scale and Multi Stakeholder Diagram ............................................... 47 Figure 5: Map Showing the Study Sites ...................................................................... 84 Figure 6: Land Subsidence and Coastal Inundation in Semarang ............................... 85 Figure 7: Pekalongan Coastal Erosion Between 2003-2009 ........................................ 87 Figure 8: Coastal Inundation in Pekalongan ................................................................ 88 Figure 9: Semarang City and Semarang Metropolitan Area (SMA) ......................... 107 Figure 10: Average Temperature Trend in Semarang City ....................................... 109 Figure 11: Times of Water Shortage .......................................................................... 110 Figure 12: Location Map of the Study Area .............................................................. 138 Figure 13: Coping strategies (Photo Credit: Author) ................................................. 147 Figure 14: Abandoned Houses (Photo Credit: Author) ............................................. 148 Figure 15: Example of a Domestic RWH in Wonosari ............................................. 149 Figure 16: ARR (left) and AWLR (right) (Photo Credit: Author) ............................. 150 vi ABBREVIATIONS ACCCRN Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network ADB Asian Development Bank AUSAID Australian Agency for International Development Bappeda Regional Agency for Planning and Development Bappenas National Development Planning Agency BMKG Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics BNPB National Body for Disaster Management BPBD Local Body for Disaster Management BPPT Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology CBA Community Based Adaptation CME Coordinator Ministry of Economic CMHDC Coordinator Ministry of Human Development and Indonesian Culture CoP Conference of the Parties DFID Department for International Development/United Kingdom DNPI National Council for Climate Change EM-DAT The International Disaster Database GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GIZ Deutsche Gessellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit HDI Human Development Index ICCTF Indonesian Climate Change Trust Fund ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives IIED International Institute for Environment and Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISET Institute of Social and Economic Transition JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LAPA Local Adaptation Plan of Action MASL Mean above Sea Level MDG Millennium Development Goals MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources vii MLG Multi-Level Governance MMAF Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries MoAG Ministry of Agriculture MoE Ministry of the Environment MoF Ministry of Finance MoHA Ministry of Home affairs MoH Ministry of Health MPR People’s Consultative Congress MoPW Ministry of Public Work NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NAP National Adaptation Plan NGO Non-Governmental Organisation OECD Overseas Economic Cooperation and Development ODA Overseas Development Assistance PKKIM Centre for Climate Change Financing and Multilateral Cooperation REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation REPELITA Five Yearly Development Plan RPJM National Middle Term Development Plan RPJMD Local Middle-term Development Plan RKP Government’s Annual Work Plan UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change URDI Urban and Regional Development Institute VOC United East India Company viii Abstract In response to the recognised challenges posed by climate change, mainstreaming adaptation into existing development policies and practices has been identified as a critical pathway for enhancing the resilience of communities. However, empirical evidence for how mainstreaming can be achieved, particularly in the context of developing countries, is limited. To address this gap, this thesis focused on the case of Indonesia to examine how governments mainstream adaptation into the development planning agenda. A multi-sited approach was adopted to explore how adaptation policies were formulated and practiced at national, municipal and community levels. The study used qualitative methods including interviews, participant observation and document analysis. A detailed account of climate adaptation policy and politics in Indonesia was developed, and, from this, it was found that national scale strategies had been developed with limited stakeholder engagement. This lack of stakeholder engagement in strategy development resulted in adaptation policies being poorly understood and difficult to enforce at the local scale. National level efforts to support the uptake of effective adaptation actions at the local scale also suffered from the absence of a lead agency, the lack of accurate and detailed data on recent and future climate scenarios, there being no legal basis to enforce policies, and limited financial resources. This study also focused on identifying factors underpinning the mainstreaming adaptation into development policy at the local level. The most serious constraints were a lack of understanding about adaptation, less synergy and interaction among key stakeholders, limited human resources and no sense of obligation to develop an adaptation plan. The analysis further revealed that the willingness of local governments to initiate adaptation was driven by three key factors: (1) past extreme weather experiences; (2) strong commitment from elected leaders and the existence of policy entrepreneurs, and; (3) external support such as from an NGO. The thesis revealed the importance of social capital in responding to climate hazards and the preparedness of local municipalities to mainstream adaptation to climate change within development policy. The findings illuminated the critical role that social capital had in ix creating a more resilient community, particularly in the context of limited government assistance. The study found that to facilitate effective mainstreaming of adaptation into development policy it is crucial to involve and engage all adaptation stakeholders at different levels (vertical linkages) from international, national and local levels as well as inter-sector collaborations (horizontal networks). These findings contribute to enhancing the evidence base informing the formulation of climate change adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of a developing country. x