ebook img

Long-Run Growth Forecasting PDF

194 Pages·2008·2.119 MB·English
Save to my drive
Quick download
Download
Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.

Preview Long-Run Growth Forecasting

Description:
This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.
See more

The list of books you might like

Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.