DOT HS 809 833 October 2004 Technical Report Lives Saved by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Other Vehicle Safety Technologies, 1960-2002 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks With a Review of 19 FMVSS and their Effectiveness in Reducing Fatalities, Injuries and Crashes This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161 The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear only because they are considered essential to the object of this report. Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. DOT HS 809 833 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Lives Saved by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and October 2004 Other Vehicle Safety Technologies, 1960-2002 – Passenger Cars and 6. Performing Organization Code Light Trucks – With a Review of 19 FMVSS and their Effectiveness in Reducing Fatalities, Injuries and Crashes 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Charles J. Kahane, Ph.D. 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Evaluation Division; National Center for Statistics and Analysis 11. Contract or Grant No. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Washington, DC 20590 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Department of Transportation NHTSA Technical Report National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, DC 20590 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstract The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) began to evaluate its Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) in 1975. By October 2004, NHTSA had evaluated the effectiveness of virtually all the life-saving technologies introduced in passenger cars, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and vans from about 1960 up through the later 1990’s. A statistical model estimates the number of lives saved from 1960 to 2002 by the combination of these life-saving technologies. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for 1975-2002 document the actual crash fatalities in vehicles that, especially in recent years, include many safety technologies. Using NHTSA’s published effectiveness estimates, the model estimates how many people would have died if the vehicles had not been equipped with any of the safety technologies. In addition to equipment meeting specific FMVSS, the model tallies lives saved by installations in advance of the FMVSS, back to 1960, and by non-compulsory improvements, such as the redesign of mid and lower instrument panels. FARS data have been available since 1975, but an extension of the model allows estimates of lives saved in 1960-1974. Vehicle safety technologies saved an estimated 328,551 lives from 1960 through 2002. The annual number of lives saved grew quite steadily from 115 in 1960, when a small number of people used lap belts, to 24,561 in 2002, when most cars and light trucks were equipped with numerous modern safety technologies and belt use on the road achieved 75 percent. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Document is available to the public through the FARS; statistical analysis; evaluation; benefits; National Technical Information Service, effectiveness; fatality reduction; injury reduction; Springfield, Virginia 22161 crashworthiness; crash avoidance 19. Security Classif. (Of this report) 20. Security Classif. (Of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 422 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary.................................................................................................................... ix Framework for the analysis..........................................................................................................1 Basic analysis method..........................................................................................................2 What is included and what is excluded? ..............................................................................3 List of FMVSS, safety technologies and effectiveness evaluations ....................................4 Estimating lives saved by safety technologies, 1960-2002 ...............................................12 Part 1: Review of 19 FMVSS and their effectiveness in reducing fatalities, injuries and crashes for passenger cars and light trucks .................................................................15 103 Windshield defrosting and defogging systems ..........................................................17 Rear window defrosting and defogging systems .......................................................17 105 Hydraulic and electric brake systems ........................................................................20 Dual master cylinders .20 Front disc brakes .23 Rear-wheel antilock (RWAL) brake systems for light trucks ...................................25 Four-wheel antilock brake systems (ABS) for passenger cars and light trucks ........27 Electronic stability control (ESC) systems (preliminary evaluation) ........................31 108 Lamps, reflective devices, and associated equipment ...............................................34 Side marker lamps.34 Center High Mounted Stop Lamps (CHMSL)...........................................................37 Retroreflective tape on heavy trailers ........................................................................41 201 Occupant protection in interior impact ......................................................................46 Redesign of mid and lower instrument panels with improved occupant protection..46 Head injury protection upgrade (not yet evaluated) ..................................................51 Head air bags (not yet evaluated)...............................................................................52 202 Head restraints ...........................................................................................................53 Head restraints for front-outboard seats.....................................................................53 203 Impact protection for the driver from the steering control system ............................59 204 Steering control rearward displacement Energy-absorbing and telescoping steering assembly ...............................................59 205 Glazing materials .......................................................................................................65 High-Penetration Resistant (HPR) windshields.........................................................65 Glass-plastic windshields...........................................................................................68 206 Door locks and door retention components ...............................................................70 Stronger locks, latches and hinges for side doors ......................................................70 iii 207 Seating systems..........................................................................................................73 Seatback locks for 2-door cars with folding front seatbacks .....................................73 208 Occupant crash protection..........................................................................................77 209 Seat belt assemblies 210 Seat belt assembly anchorages Lap belts for front-seat occupants..............................................................................80 Lap belts for back-seat occupants ..............................................................................85 Manual 3-point lap-shoulder belts for front-seat occupants ......................................87 3-point lap-shoulder belts for back-seat occupants....................................................98 Automatic safety belts..............................................................................................101 Pretensioners and load limiters for safety belts (not yet evaluated) ........................103 Frontal air bags ........................................................................................................104 On-off switches for passenger air bags in pickup trucks .........................................115 1998-99 redesign of air bags (not yet evaluated).....................................................118 Advanced air bags (not yet evaluated).....................................................................118 212 Windshield mounting...............................................................................................120 Adhesive windshield bonding..................................................................................120 213 Child restraint systems.............................................................................................125 225 Child restraint anchorage systems Child safety seats .....................................................................................................125 Upper tethers and anchorages (not yet evaluated) ...................................................131 LATCH (lower anchors and tethers for children – not yet evaluated) ....................131 Riding in the back seat.............................................................................................132 214 Side impact protection .............................................................................................136 Side door beams.......................................................................................................136 Voluntary (pre-1994) TTI(d) improvements in 2-door cars ....................................140 Dynamic test standard, passenger cars (not yet evaluated)......................................143 Side air bags (not yet evaluated)..............................................................................144 216 Roof crush resistance ...............................................................................................145 Redesign of true hardtops as pillared hardtops or sedans ........................................145 301 Fuel system integrity................................................................................................149 1975-77 upgrade: rollover, rear-impact and lateral-impact tests .............................149 NCAP New Car Assessment Program............................................................................153 Frontal NCAP-related improvements in cars without air bags................................153 Frontal NCAP in vehicles with air bags (not yet evaluated) ...................................156 Side NCAP (not yet evaluated)................................................................................157 Rollover-resistance NCAP (not yet evaluated)........................................................157 Summary tables for Part 1................................................................................................158 Table 1-2: Estimates of fatality-reducing effectiveness..........................................159 Table 1-3: Estimates of injury-reducing effectiveness and benefits .......................164 Table 1-4: Estimates of crash-avoidance effectiveness and benefits......................170 iv Part 2: Lives saved by the FMVSS and other vehicle safety technologies, 1960-2002 .........173 Summary of the estimation method .................................................................................173 Findings............................................................................................................................185 Estimate of lives saved.............................................................................................185 Net effectiveness for car/LTV occupants ................................................................187 Car/LTV occupant fatalities per 100,000,000 VMT................................................194 Estimates of lives saved by each FMVSS................................................................197 Benefits for occupants of passenger cars .................................................................204 Benefits for occupants of LTVs...............................................................................227 Benefits for pedestrians, bicyclists and other non-occupants ..................................244 Benefits for motorcyclists ........................................................................................244 Effect of air bags by seat position, occupant age and on-off switch availability.....249 References................................................................................................................................257 Appendix A: SAS programs used to estimate lives saved by the FMVSS and other vehicle safety technologies, 1960-2002..................................................................277 Overview..........................................................................................................................277 Description of the main analysis program LS2004..........................................................281 Description of the postprocessor program OLDFA24.....................................................357 Appendix B: Summaries of published evaluation reports ......................................................397 v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ABS Antilock brake system ACIR Automotive Crash Injury Research, a crash data file of the 1950’s and 60’s ACTS Automotive Coalition for Traffic Safety (before 1999, American Coalition for Traffic Safety) AIS Abbreviated Injury Scale AMC American Motors Corporation ANPRM Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking ANSI American National Standards Institute BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke CATMOD Categorical models procedure in SAS CHMSL Center high mounted stop lamp CRASH Calspan reconstruction of accident speeds on the highway CY Calendar year DMV Department of Motor Vehicles ESC Electronic stability control FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System (a census of fatal crashes in the United States since 1975) FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FMH Free-Motion Headform for testing upper interior components FMVSS Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard GM General Motors vi GSA General Services Administration of the Federal government GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (specified by the manufacturer, equals the vehicle’s curb weight plus maximum recommended loading) HIC Head Injury Criterion HPR High penetration resistant windshield HSL Highway Safety Literature, an on-line literature database that is a subfile of the automated Transportation Research Information Service (TRIS) file, accessible at http://199.79.179.82/sundev/search.cfm IIHS Insurance Institute for Highway Safety LATCH Lower anchors and tethers for children LTV Light trucks and vans (includes pickup trucks, SUVs, minivans and full-sized vans) MCOD Multiple Cause of Death file, a supplement to FARS in 1987-98, listing causes of death from the occupant’s death certificate MDAI Multidisciplinary Accident Investigations (a file of in-depth crash investigations conducted by NHTSA and others, 1967-78) MDB Moving deformable barrier mph Miles per hour MVMA2D Motor Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association’s 2-dimensional computer simulation of the occupant’s motion in a frontal crash MY Model year NASS National Automotive Sampling System (a probability sample of police-reported crashes in the United States since 1979, investigated in detail) NCAP New Car Assessment Program (consumer information supplied by NHTSA on the safety of new cars and LTVs, based on test results, since 1979) NCSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA NCSS National Crash Severity Study (a probability sample of police-reported towaway crashes in seven multi-county areas, 1977-79, investigated in detail) vii NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NOPUS National Occupant Protection Use Survey (statistics for the United States, since 1994, from a national observational survey based on a probability sample) NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking NTSB National Transportation Safety Board RF Right-front RSEP Restraint Systems Evaluation Project (a probability sample of police-reported towaway crashes involvements of model year 1973-75 cars in five urban or multi- county areas, 1974-75, investigated in detail) RWAL Rear-wheel antilock brake system SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAS Statistical analysis software produced by SAS Institute, Inc. SCI Special Crash Investigations, NHTSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis SID Side impact dummy SSF Static stability factor (Half of the vehicle’s track width divided by the height of its center of gravity) SUV Sport utility vehicle TTI Thoracic Trauma Index TTI(d) Thoracic Trauma Index for the dummy in a side-impact test UMTRI University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute VIN Vehicle Identification Number VMT Vehicle Miles of Travel VW Volkswagen viii