LINK Linkisanexerciseinabstraction,causality,andmodeling.Itis aboutdiscoveringandmakingvisibleinterdependenciesincomplex systems.Theauthordistillswhatshehaslearnedinpithyinsights. Ittakesdiscipline.Youwon’tregretreadingthisbook. (cid:1)VintCerf,InternetPioneer Linkisthemissinglinktoourunderstandingofunintended consequencesofmanyofourdecisionsandactions.Thisisabook fortheages,movingbothtechnology(likeAI)andhumandecision makingtothenextlevel.Mustread. (cid:1)VRFerose,SVPandHeadofSAPAcademyforEngineering Thereisanexplosiontodayintheimpacts,risks,andopportunities ofmanydecisionsbyprivateorgovernmentalentitiesintendedto impactfutureevents.Linkisaboutunderstandingthesedecisions andcausalrelationships.Societaltransactionsareaccelerating: manymorethaneverareintangible,andtherearesubstantial complexitiescreatedbynewlydiscoveredinformationaswellasthe resultingincreaseofglobalinterdependencies.Surveillance capitalism,especiallyasenhancedbyAI,isalsoasubstantialrisk today.Linkispartofthesolution:acrucialresourcetounderstand causalchains,especiallywiththegoalofavoidingunintended consequencesofdecisionsinvolvingdataandtechnology. (cid:1)BillFenwick,PartnerEmeritus,Fenwick&WestLLP LINK How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World BY LORIEN PRATT UnitedKingdom(cid:1)NorthAmerica(cid:1)Japan(cid:1)India(cid:1)Malaysia(cid:1)China EmeraldPublishingLimited HowardHouse,WagonLane,BingleyBD161WA,UK Firstedition2019 CopyrightrLorienPratt,2019.Publishedunderexclusivelicence. 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Certificate Number 1985 ISO 14001 Forthefuture,CymbreandGriffinSmith Thispageintentionallyleftblank CONTENTS Foreword:AlexLamb xi Introduction 1 1. GettingSeriousaboutDecisions 5 ShiftsinPerspective 6 TheDISolutionsRenaissance 6 HowDidWeGetHere:TheTechnologyHypeFeedbackLoop 10 TheCoreQuestion 11 LinkIsaboutDecisionIntelligence:AFocusingLensonComplexity 13 UnderstandingCause-and-effectLinks 16 Evidence-basedDecisionMaking:What’sBroken 20 WhoIsUsingDecisionIntelligence? 21 DecisionIntelligenceinPractice:ATechnology TransformationExample 22 MakingtheInvisibleVisible 24 TheDIConsensus 27 Why“DecisionIntelligence?” 29 AboutMe 29 AboutLink 29 BookOverview 31 2. BreakingthroughtheComplexityCeiling 33 TheOriginsoftheCDD 41 HowWeInventedtheCDD 42 CDDExamples 44 CDDsasaFrameworkforIntegratingOtherTechnologies 44 TheCDD“Aha”Moment 49 ATelecomCustomerCareCDDExample 50 vii viii Contents DecisionsbeforeData 51 TheComplexityCeiling 52 BorrowingfromEngineering:SolutionstoComplexity 57 DecisionIntelligenceBridgesfromAI/MLTheorytoPractice 60 TheRightDecisioninaChangingContext 63 3. Technologies,Disciplines,andOtherPuzzlePiecesofthe SolutionsRenaissance 65 TheWebofWickedProblems 65 BigData 67 WarmData 70 ArtificialIntelligenceandMachineLearning 72 CausalReasoning 79 Cybernetics 81 ComplexSystems/ComplexityTheory/ComplexityScience 82 Simulation,Optimization,Foresight,andOperationsResearch 83 InterdependenciesandtheWhack-a-mole 87 SystemDynamics,SystemsAnalysis,andSystemsThinking 89 TransferLearning 96 IntelligenceAugmentation(IA) 97 DecisionAnalysis 101 PopulatingLinks:AnalyticHierarchyProcessandSketchGraphs 101 DesignandDesignThinking 103 GameTheory 103 KnowledgeManagement 104 Statistics 106 Conclusion 107 4. HowtoBuildDecisionModels 109 ThisMaterialIsUsefulatMultipleLevels 109 WhoBenefitsfromDecisionModels? 111 DecisionModelingBenefits 112 SomeDecisionModelingExamples 113 DecisionIntelligenceandData 114 DivergentVersusConvergentThinking 115 BuildingaDecisionModel 116 Conclusion 135 Contents ix ExamplesofDecisionIntelligenceDeployments 136 ClassicMistakes/BestPractices 146 5. ThePoweroftheDecisionModelFramework 155 DIasaMechanismforHuman/MachineCollaboration/ IntelligenceAugmentation(IA) 155 DIforEducation 156 DIasaTooltoSupportDecisionMakingand OrganizationalInfluenceMappinginOrganizations/ CompaniesandGovernments 157 DIastheTechnologythatGluestheTechStacktothe HumanStack 158 DIastheCoreofSoftwarethatIsBasedonWorldModels 159 DIasaLeadershipandManagementDiscipline 159 DIasaRiskManagementFramework 160 DIasanAnalysisFrameworkforAIEthicsandResponsibility 160 DIasaSoftwareEngineeringDisciplineforAI 161 DIasaContextLayerthatExtendsAItoNewUseCases 161 DIasaBreakthroughTechnologytoSolve“Wicked”Problems 161 DIasaWayofBetterUnderstandingPersonalDecisions: IndividuallyandWithinOrganizations 162 DIasaMeetingDiscipline 162 DIasaGenerativeModelforChatbotsSupporting DecisionMaking 162 DIastheBasisforaNewFormofDynamic“Wikipedia” 162 DIasaFoundationforJournalisminanAgeofComplexity 163 DIasaBusinessTrackingDiscipline 164 DIforGovernmentPlanning 164 DIforIntelligenceAnalysis 165 6. LookingtotheFuture 167 NewIdeas,NewDIEvangelists 168 TheHeadwindofDisruption 168 TheDIEcosystemTodayandTomorrow 170 EmergingDataScientistSpecialistRoles 172 DIandtheNewMythos 174 TheHumanElement 176