Publication Series No. 21 Labour market L a b o u r transitions of young m a r k e t t women and men r a n s i t i in Armenia o n s o f y o u n g w o m e n a n Nicolas Serrière d m e n i n a r m e n i a October 2014 Youth Employment Programme iL Employment Policy Department o Work4Youth Publication Series No. 21 Labour market transitions of young women and men in Armenia Nicolas Serrière International Labour Organization ● Geneva October 2014 Copyright © International Labour Organization 2014 First published 2014 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to the Publications Bureau (Rights and Permissions), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: [email protected]. 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Catalogues or lists of new publications are available free of charge from the above address, or by email: [email protected] Visit our website: www.ilo.org/publns Printed by the International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland Preface Youth is a crucial time of life when young people start realizing their aspirations, assuming their economic independence and finding their place in society. The global jobs crisis has exacerbated the vulnerability of young people in terms of: i) higher unemployment, ii) lower quality jobs for those who find work, iii) greater labour market inequalities among different groups of young people, iv) longer and more insecure school- to-work transitions, and v) increased detachment from the labour market. In June 2012, the International Labour Conference of the ILO resolved to take urgent action to tackle the unprecedented youth employment crisis through a multi-pronged approach geared towards pro-employment growth and decent job creation. The resolution “T : ” constitute a blueprint for shaping national strategies for youth employment.1 It calls for increased coherence of policies and action on youth employment across the multilateral system. In parallel, the UN Secretary-General highlighted youth as one of the five generational imperatives to be addressed through the mobilization of all the human, financial and political resources available to the United Nations (UN). As part of this agenda, the UN has developed a System-wide Action Plan on Youth, with youth employment as one of the main priorities, to strengthen youth programmes across the UN system. The ILO supports governments and social partners in designing and implementing integrated employment policy responses. As part of this work, the ILO seeks to enhance the capacity of national and local level institutions to undertake evidence-based analysis that feeds social dialogue and the policy-making process. To assist member States in “ -to- ” ( WT ). T survey in Armenia, is a product of a partnership between the ILO and The MasterCard F . T “W 4 ” P policy-makers of 28 low- and middle-income countries to undertake the SWTS and assist governments and the social partners in the use of the data for effective policy design and implementation. It is not an easy time to be a young person in the labour market today. The hope is that with leadership from the UN system, with the commitment of governments, trade ’ z The MasterCard Foundation, the international community can provide the effective assistance needed to help young women and men make a good start in the world of work. ’ success in all future stages of life. Azita Berar Awad Dimitrina Dimitrova Director Director Employment Policy Department Decent Work Team and Country Office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia 1 T x 2012 “T : ” on the ILO website at: http://www.ilo.org/ilc/ILCSessions/101stSession/texts- adopted/WCMS_185950/lang--en/index.htm. iii Contents Page Preface ............................................................................................................................... iii Contents ................................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. ix 1. Introduction and main findings ................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Main findings .................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Structure of the report ....................................................................................................... 5 2. Overview of the labour market in Armenia and survey methodology ........................................ 5 2.1 Socio-economic context .................................................................................................... 5 2.2 The labour market in Armenia .......................................................................................... 6 2.3 Objectives and methodology of the school-to-work transition survey ............................. 9 2.3.1 Questionnaire development and sample design .................................................... 10 3. Characteristics of youth in the sample ...................................................................................... 11 3.1 Individual characteristics of youth .................................................................................. 11 3.2 Educational attainment ................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Activity status of youth ................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Ambitions and life goals ................................................................................................. 23 3.5 Characteristics of employed youth ................................................................................. 23 3.5.1 Status in employment and sectoral and occupational distribution ........................ 23 3.5.2 Wage employment ................................................................................................ 26 3.5.3 Self-employment .................................................................................................. 28 3.5.4 Hours of work and involuntary part-time work .................................................... 28 3.5.5 Wages ................................................................................................................... 29 3.5.6 Informal employment ........................................................................................... 31 3.5.7 Qualifications mismatch ....................................................................................... 32 3.5.8 Security and satisfaction ....................................................................................... 33 3.6 Unemployed youth .......................................................................................................... 35 3.7 Youth outside the labour force (inactive youth) ............................................................. 38 4. Stages of transition .................................................................................................................... 39 4.1 Concepts and definitions ................................................................................................. 39 4.2 Stages of transition.......................................................................................................... 40 4.2.1 Youth who had not yet started the transition ........................................................ 41 4.2.2 Youth in transition ................................................................................................ 42 4.2.3 Characteristics of a completed transition .............................................................. 43 4.3 Transition paths and length ............................................................................................. 45 5. Relevant institutional and policy frameworks, and policy implications ................................... 47 5.1 Relevant policy framework in Armenia .......................................................................... 47 v 5.2 Policy implications ......................................................................................................... 48 References ........................................................................................................................................... 53 Annex I. Definitions of labour market statistics .................................................................................. 55 Annex II. Mapping of education levels .............................................................................................. 57 Annex III. Additional statistical tables ................................................................................................ 58 Annex IV. SWTS sampling design .................................................................................................... 61 Tables 2.1 Selected macroeconomic indicators, Armenia, 2009–13 (% of GDP, unless otherwise specified) ..................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Selected labour market indicators by sex and area of residence, 2012 ....................................... 7 2.3 Unemployment rates by age group, sex and area of residence, 2012 (%) .................................. 9 3.1 Youth population by age group, area of residence, marital status and sex ............................... 11 3.2 Youth who moved from original residence by area of residence and reason for moving (%) ........................................................................................................................................ 12 3.3 Financial inclusion of youth (%) ............................................................................................... 14 3.4 Youth by educational status, sex and area of residence (%) ..................................................... 15 3.5 Youth by educational attainment, area of residence and sex (%) ............................................. 15 3.6 Youth by educational attainment and main activity status ........................................................ 16 3.7 Current students by preferred occupation, place of work and sex ............................................ 19 3.8 Youth by selected characteristics and activity status ................................................................ 22 3.9 Youth neither in employment, education nor training by status, sex and area of residence .................................................................................................................................... 22 3.10 Youth employment by status in employment, sex and area of residence (%) ........................... 24 3.11 Youth employment by main sector, sex and area of residence (%) .......................................... 24 3.12 Youth employment by detailed sector (1-digit ISIC) and sex (%) ............................................ 25 3.13 Employed youth by occupation and sex .................................................................................... 25 3.14 Young wage and salaried workers by type of contract, sex and area of residence ................... 26 3.15 Self-employed youth by reason for self-employment and area of residence ............................ 28 3.16 Average monthly wage of young wage and salaried workers and own-account workers by sex and educational attainment (in Armenian drams) .......................................................... 29 3.17 Wage and salaried youth by occupation, sex and average monthly wage (in Armenian drams) .............................................................................................................................. 30 3.18 ISCO major groups and education levels .................................................................................. 32 3.19 Overeducated and undereducated young workers by major occupational category (ISCO-08, %) ............................................................................................................................ 33 3.20 Employed youth who would like to change their job by main reason and sex ......................... 34 3.21 Employed youth who refused a job offer by reason and sex .................................................... 34 3.22 Unemployed youth by job search duration and sex .................................................................. 37 vi 3.23 Inactive youth by reason for inactivity and sex......................................................................... 38 4.1 Youth population by transition stage and sex ........................................................................... 40 4.2 Youth population by transition stage and age group ................................................................. 41 4.3 Youth who had not yet started their transition by sub-category and sex .................................. 42 4.4 Transited youth by sub-category and occupation (%) ............................................................... 44 4.5 Transited youth by indicator on the path of transition and sex ................................................. 46 A.1 Total population of Armenia by sex and age, 2013 ('000) ........................................................ 58 A.2 Selected labour market indicators by sex and area of residence, 2011 ..................................... 58 A.3 Unemployment rate by age, sex and area of residence, 2012 (%) ............................................ 59 A.4 Youth with no declared health problems by area of residence (%)........................................... 59 A.5 Youth leaving school early by reason and sex .......................................................................... 59 A.6 ’ ........................................................... 59 A.7 Indicators measuring quality of youth employment by sex (%) ............................................... 60 A.8 Unemployed youth by occupation sought and sex .................................................................... 60 Figures 2.1 Working-age employed and unemployed population by level of education, 2012 ..................... 8 3.1 Ratio of young females to young males by age group .............................................................. 13 3.2 Youth by household income level and area of residence .......................................................... 14 3.3 Youth with completed education who combined work and education by main economic status ........................................................................................................................................ 17 3.4 C ’ ’ .................................................... 17 3.5 Youth by household income level and educational attainment (%) .......................................... 18 3.6 Current students by preferred field of study.............................................................................. 20 3.7 Youth population by main economic activity and sex .............................................................. 21 3.8 Youth by primary life goal, main economic activity status and sex ......................................... 23 3.9 Young wage and salaried workers by access to employment benefits/entitlements and sex ........................................................................................................................................ 27 3.10 Youth employment by actual hours worked per week and sex ................................................. 29 3.11 Employed youth in informal employment by sub-category, sex and area of residence ............ 31 3.12 Youth unemployment rates by level of completed educational attainment and sex ................. 35 3.13 Scenarios of shortage or oversupply of labour between occupations sought by unemployed youth and occupations held by employed youth by occupation (in percentage points) ..................................................................................................................... 36 3.14 Employed and unemployed youth by job search method ......................................................... 38 4.1 Youth population by stage of transition and area of residence ................................................. 41 4.2 Youth in transition by sub-category and levels of household income and completed educational attainment .............................................................................................................. 42 4.3 Transited youth by sub-category and levels of household income and completed educational attainment .............................................................................................................. 43 4.4 Transited youth by sub-category, sex, area of residence and levels of household income and completed educational attainment ...................................................................................... 45 vii 4.5 Transited youth by previous activity (%) .................................................................................. 46 Boxes 1 Definition of youth .................................................................................................................... 10 2 Work4Youth: An ILO project in partnership with The MasterCard Foundation ...................... 10 viii Acknowledgements The 2012 school-to-work transition survey in Armenia was implemented by the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (NSSRA) with funding from the “W 4 ” rship with The MasterCard Foundation. The ILO is extremely grateful to the NSSRA team under the capable leadership of Gagik Gevorgyan and Lusine Kalantaryan. Numerous people were involved in the report-writing process: Sevak Alekyan undertook the preliminary analysis; Nicolas Serrière drafted the final text; Takaaki Kizu prepared the data tables; and Susan Divald engaged in technical editing. Sara Elder, Coordinator of the ILO Work4Youth team, also provided substantive input to the document. Yonca Gurbuzer, of the same team, offered significant technical support during all stages of the survey. The preliminary results of the survey were presented at a national workshop in Yerevan on 3 October 2014. The ILO wishes to thank the participants of the workshop for their validation of the results and the feedback on the relevance of the survey to the development and monitoring of youth-related policies and programmes in the country. Olga Koulaeva, Senior Employers' Specialist of the ILO Decent Work Technical Support team for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and Nune Hovhannisyan, ILO National Coordinator for Armenia, offered invaluable assistance in supporting the activities in the country, and were indispensable to the organization of the workshop. Finally, the ILO would like to acknowledge the support of The MasterCard Foundation in allowing the research to move forward, under the scope of the Work4Youth partnership. ix