UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI TRIESTE Sede amministrativa del Dottorato di Ricerca Sedi Consorziate (IUIES) Università degli Studi di Udine - Università di Klagenfurt - Università MGIMO di Mosca - Università di Nova Gorica - Università Jagiellonica di Cracovia - Università Eotvos Lorand di Budapest - Università Babes-Bolyai di Cluj-Napoca - Università Comenius di Bratislava - Istituto di Sociologia Internazionale di Gorizia XXV CICLO DEL DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN POLITICHE TRANSFRONTALIERE PER LA VITA QUOTIDIANA TRANSBORDER POLICIES FOR DAILY LIFE Dialogue, Stability and Security in the Central Asia Region: Comparative study on the EU and the NATO commitments in the Central Asia-region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan). (Settore scientifico-disciplinare: SPS/11) DOTTORANDO: COORDINATORE DEL COLLEGIO DEI DOCENTI Toni CAPORRELLA CHIAR.MO PROF. LUIGI PELLIZZONI UNIVERSITÀ DI TRIESTE RELATORE CHIAR.MO PROF. Vasile PUSCAS UNIVERSITÀ DI CLUJ – NAPOCA (ROMANIA) ANNO ACCADEMICO 2011/2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………………………..6 ACRONYMS ………………………………….…………………………………………………..7 - PART 1 - CHAPTER I THE STATE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN CHANGED MULTILATER SYSTEM 1.1 Chapter layout and Research Objectives………………………………………………………11 1.2 Problem statement……………………………………………………………………………..12 1.3 Literature review………………………………………………………………………………16 1.4 Research Methodology………………………………………………………………………...25 1.5 Overview of Russia and Central Asia States…………………………………………..............28 1.5.1 Russia………………………………………………………………………………………29 1.5.2 Kazakhstan…………………………………………………………………………………32 1.5.3 Tajikistan…………………………………………………………………………………...33 1.5.4 Turkmenistan……………………………………………………………………………….35 1.5.5 Kyrgyzstan………………………………………………………………………………….37 1.5.6 Uzbekistan………………………………………………………………………………….39 1.5.7 Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………………41 1.6 Russia influence and cooperation with the Central Asia States………………………………..43 CHAPTER II THE EUROPEAN UNION (E.U.) AND NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION (NATO) INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ASIA 2.1 The Europeans in C.A.: The EU and NATO Strategic Interests………..……………………...49 2.2 The European Union Policy and Instruments. ..…………..……………………………………54 2.3 The E.U Regional Strategies……………………………….…………………………………...61 2.4 European Committee 2007-2013 Regional Assistance Strategy for C.A. Region….…………..64 2.5 E.U. Human rights, Rule of Law, Good Governance and Democratization …………………...66 2.6 E.U. as promoter of Development, Trade and Democratization.....…………………………….70 2.7 Facing common threats and challenges…………………………………………………………75 2.8 Dual Approach: the German Bilateral and Regional approach…………………………………78 2.9 E.U. and the Security Sector Reform (SSR)…………………………………………………….89 2.10 Conclusion: the way forward………………………………………………………………..87 2 CHAPTER III THE NATO THE NATO STRATEGIC AND SECURITY INTERESTS IN THE C.A. REGION 3.1 An overview of the NATO………………………………………………………………...........90 3.2 NATO Strategic Concept………………………………………………………………….........94 3.3 The NATO Euro-Partnership and the Partnership for Peace (PfP)……………..…………........96 3.4 NATO and C.A. States cooperation…………………………………………………………….98 3.4.1 NATO and Kazakhstan Cooperation…………………………………..………………........99 3.4.2 NATO and Kyrgyzstan Cooperation…………………………………..…………………..102 3.4.3 NATO and Uzbekistan Cooperation…………………………………..…………………..105 3.4.4 NATO and Turkmenistan Cooperation………………………………..…………………..107 3.4.5 NATO and Tajikistan Cooperation…………………………………..……………….......109 3.4.6 NATO and Afghanistan Cooperation…………………………………..……………….…111 3.5 Silk-Afghanistan, an example of Regional Cooperation………………………………………116 3.6 A new Framework for Security Assistance Force (SFA)………………………………….......117 3.7 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………..121 - PART 2 - CHAPTER IV TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY 4.1 Technical Methodology, Data, Survey and Profiles ……………………………………..........123 4.2 Selecting Variables………………………………………………………………………….....126 4.3 Standardization, Weighting, Income and wellbeing scores……………………………………127 4.4 Sub-Index scores and Ranking…………………………………………………………….......128 4.5 Sub-Index description……………………………………………………………………….....129 4.5.1 Economy sub-Index…….………………………………………………………………….129 4.5.2 Governance sub-Index……………………………………………………………………..131 4.5.3 Education sub-Index……………………………………………………………………….133 4.5.4 Security & Safety Sub-Index………………………………………………………………135 4.6 The C.A Countries and the Sub-Indexes………………………………………………………138 4.6.1 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...153 4.6.2 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...157 4.6.3 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..159 4.6.4 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….161 3 4.7 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………..170 4.7.1 The general model…………………………………………………………………………170 4.7.2 The surveys………………………………………………………………………………...172 4.7.3 Profiles, Quarterly Reports and Qualitative Case Studies…………………………………173 CHAPTER V ANALYSIS, EXPLAINING THE CHANGE……………………………………………………..174 5.1 Kazakhstan……………………………………………………………………………………175 5.1.1 Geography………………………………………………………………………................175 5.1.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..176 5.1.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...177 5.1.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...178 5.1.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..182 5.1.6 Security & Safety................………………………………………………………………183 5.2 Kyrgyzstan……………………………………………………………………………………185 5.2.1 Geography….……………………………………………………………………………...185 5.2.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..186 5.2.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...187 5.2.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...189 5.2.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..192 5.2.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….193 5.3 Tajikistan……………………………………………………………………………………...195 5.3.1 Geography…………………………………………………………………………………195 5.3.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..196 5.3.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...199 5.3.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...199 5.3.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..202 5.3.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….203 5.4 Turkmenistan…………………………………………………………………………………205 5.4.1 Geography…………………………………………………………………………………205 5.4.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..206 5.4.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...207 5.4.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...208 5.4.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..211 4 5.4.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….212 5.5 Uzbekistan…………………………………………………………………………………….213 5.5.1 Geography…………………………………………………………………………………213 5.5.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..214 5.5.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...215 5.5.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...217 5.5.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..219 5.5.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….221 5.6 Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………………...223 5.6.1 Geography………….……………………………………………………………………...223 5.6.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..224 5.6.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...225 5.6.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...226 5.6.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..232 5.6.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….233 5.6.7 Afghanistan Future………………………………………………………………………...236 5.6.8 Afghanistan Designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally…………………………………….237 5.6.9 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………239 CHAPTER VI THE DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRIES: COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..241 6.1 Comparative Analysis.………………………………………………………………………...241 6.2 Impact of EU and NATO efforts on the CA countries: Empirical analysis…………………...244 6.3 Impact of Economic Impact……………………………………………………………...........251 6.4 Security and Safety Impact…………………………………………………………………….255 6.5 The “energy game”…………………………………………………………….........................261 6.6 Changes?………………………………………………………………………………………268 6.7 Room for Cooperation?………………………………………………………………………..269 6.8 EU “regional approach” outcome .…………………………………………………………….270 6.9 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………………272 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………281 Annexes……………………………………………………………………………………………296 5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ABP Afghan Border Police ACG Armed Criminal Group ADAM Automated Donor Assistance Mechanism ADB Asian Development Bank ALP Afghan Local Police ANA Afghan National Army ANP Afghan National Police ANSF Afghan National Security Forces AOG Armed Opposition Group APRP Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program BBIED Body Borne Improvised Explosive Device (suicide vest) BCP Border crossing point BO Border outpost BOMCA Border Management Program in Central Asia CA Central Asia CABSI Central Asian Border Systems Initiative CADAP Central Asia Drug Action Program CAREC Central Asia Regional Environment Centre CARICC Central Asia Regional Intelligence and Coordination Centre CF Coalition Forces CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CIA Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.) CICA Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia CIP Critical Infrastructure Protection 7 CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CN Counter-Narcotics COIN counter-insurgency CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization DAC District Administrative Centre DCI Development Cooperation Instrument DPU Drug Profiling Unit EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Communities ECE Economic Commission for Europe (also UNECE/United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) ECHO European Commission’s Directorate General for Humanitarian Assistance EECCA E astern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia EIB European Investment Bank EIDHR European Initiative for Democracy and Human Rights EMECW Erasmus Mundus External Cooperation Window ENPI European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument ESDP European Security Defense Policy EU European Union EUPOL European Police Mission in Afghanistan Eurasec Eurasian Economic Community EUSR European Union Special Representative EUWI European Union Water Initiative FATF Financial Action Task Force FLEG Forest Law Enforcement and Governance GAERC General Affairs and External Relations Council 8 GSP Generalized System of Preferences HR/SG High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union/Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IAGS Illegal Armed Groups IBPP Institution Building Partnership Program IED Improvised Explosive Device IFI international financial institution IGC Intergovernmental Commission ILO International Labor Organization INOGATE Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe ISAF International Security Assistance Force IT information technology JCMB Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board MDGs Millennium Development Goals MoD Ministry of Defense (Afghan) MoI Ministry of Interior MoU Memorandum of Understanding MP Member of Parliament NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDS National Directorate of Security NGO non-governmental organization NTM-A NATO Training Mission - Afghanistan ODIHR Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe 9 PCA Partnership and Cooperation Agreement PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team PSC Private Security Company RCIED Remote Controlled Improvised Explosive Device SAF Small Arms Fire SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SFA Security Force Assistance SME small and medium-sized enterprises SSR Security Sector Reform SVBIED Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device TEMPUS Trans-European mobility scheme for university studies TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Central Asia UN United Nations UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (also ECE) UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime US United States of America USAID U.S. Agency for International Development VBIED Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device WFP World Food Program WTO World Trade Organization 10 ABSTRACT Using notions of Change developed by Thomas Kuhn, Governance by Michael Walzer and Persistent Conflicts and New Wars by Mary Kaldor, this thesis argues that the stability, security and cooperation among States as a whole, and in Central Asia States in particular are threaded by different issues as state collapse, religious extremist, terrorism, illegal narcotic and weapons trafficking. The attempt to find an ideal solution and the definition of common understanding have been hardly implemented due to different national interests and regional Powers’ pressure. Since the Soviet Union collapse, NATO and European Union institutions have adopted various political, economical, military instruments in order to pave the way of dialogue, cooperation, stability and security among states and in particular in the central Asia countries. As a result, both the theory and the practice of International Relations are in the midst of a paradigm shift. Emerging from this shift is particular global configuration of the practice of international relations. Kuhn’s thought of “incommensurability” appear to typify the relationship between the two components, while Kaldor’s concept explain the characteristic of contemporary civil conflicts, helping to understand the changed nature of intrastate warfare in terms of factors behind the wars: politics of warfare, economy of warfare, military strategies and religions struggles. Walzer proposes an international system lying between the antipodes, a thoroughly centralized global government under which all individuals are equal citizens of the world on the far left. As a result, such a system foresees the lack of sovereign states. On the far right, global anarchism, in which sovereign states are not subsumed by any meta-state structure. Kuhn provides a fundamental change in our vision of the discipline of International Relations, where the ontological side between access or denial World have a pivotal role. Kaldor affirms that the practice of International Relations and new War Economy are affected by factors emerged from globalization and transnational networks. All this entail to recast the study of International Relations as an emancipator system and the recognition of the centrality of Human Beings in the practice of International Relations for cooperation. If we are able to carry out this very ambitious End State, we can success. Hence, this research intends to evaluate the degree of the EU and the NATO commitments and impact on the Central Asia countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan), taking into account that changes in power structures could trigger violent confrontation between factions within States’ leadership. 6