Volume 91 October 2006 Number 4 Published monthly ISSN 0022-3514 by the American Psychological Association Journal of Personality and Social Psychology ATTITUDES AND SOCIAL COGNITION Charles M. Judd, Editor Dacher Keltner, Associate Editor Anne Maass, Associate Editor Bernd Wittenbrink, Associate Editor Vincent Yzerbyt, Associate Editor INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS AND GROUP PROCESSES John F. Dovidio, Editor Daphne Blunt Bugental, Associate Editor Jacques-Philippe Leyens, Associate Editor Antony Manstead, Associate Editor Cynthia L. Pickett, Associate Editor Jeffry A. Simpson, Associate Editor Scott Tindale, Associate Editor Jacquie D. Vorauer, Associate Editor PERSONALITY PROCESSES AND INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES Charles S. Carver, Editor Tim Kasser, Associate Editor Mario Mikulincer, Associate Editor Eva M. Pomerantz, Associate Editor Richard W. Robins, Associate Editor Gerard Saucier, Associate Editor www.apa.org/journals/psp Thomas A. Widiger, Associate Editor The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology publishes original journals will be forwarded only if subscribers notify the local post office papers in all areas of personality and social psychology. It empha- in writing that they will guarantee periodicals forwarding postage. sizes empirical reports but may include specialized theoretical, methodological, and review papers. The journal is divided into three Electronic access: APA members who subscribe to this journal have independently edited sections: automatic access to a 3-year file of the journal in the PsycARTICLES姞 full-text database. See http://members.apa.org/access. f ATTITUDES AND SOCIAL COGNITION addresses those domains of social behavior in which cognition plays a major role, including the interface Reprints: Authors may order reprints of their articles from the of cognition with overt behavior, affect, and motivation. Among topics printer when they receive proofs. covered are the formation, change, and utilization of attitudes, attribu- tions, and stereotypes, person memory, self-regulation, and the origins Single Issues, Back Issues, and Back Volumes: For information and consequences of moods and emotions insofar as these interact regarding back issues or back volumes write to Order Department, with cognition. Of interest also is the influence of cognition and its American Psychological Association, 750 First Street, NE, Washing- various interfaces on significant social phenomena such as persuasion, ton, DC 20002-4242. communication, prejudice, social development, and cultural trends. Microform Editions: For information regarding microform editions, f INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS ANDGROUP PROCESSES focuses onpsycho- write to University Microfilms, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. logical and structural features of interaction in dyads and groups. Appropriate to this section are papers on the nature and dynamics of Copyright and Permission: Those who wish to reuse APA- interactions and social relationships, including interpersonal attraction, copyrighted material in a non-APA publication must secure from APA communication, emotion, and relationship development, and on group and the author of reproduced material written permission to reproduce and organizational processes such as social influence, group decision a journal article in full or journal text of more than 500 words. APA making and task performance, intergroup relations, and aggression, normally grants permission contingent upon like permission of the prosocial behavior and other types of social behavior. author, inclusion of the APA copyright notice on the first page of f PERSONALITY PROCESSES AND INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES publishes re- reproducedmaterial, and payment of a fee of $20 per page. Permission search on all aspects of personality psychology. It includes studies of fromAPA and fees are waived for thosewhowish to reproduce a single individual differences and basic processes in behavior, emotions, cop- table or figure from a journal for use in a print product, provided the ing, health, motivation, and other phenomena that reflect personality. author’s permission is obtained and full credit is given to APA as Articles in areas such as personality structure, personality develop- copyright holder and to the author through a complete citation. (Re- ment, and personality assessment are also appropriate to this section questers requiring written permission for commercial use of a single of the journal, as are studies of the interplay of culture and personality table or figure will be assessed a $25 service fee.) Permission and fees and manifestations of personality in everyday behavior. are waived for authors who wish to reproduce their own material for personal use; fees only are waived for authors who wish to use more Manuscripts: Submit manuscripts to the appropriate section editor than a single table or figure of their own material commercially (but for according to the above definitions and according to the Instructions use in edited books, fees are waived for the author only if serving as the to Authors. Section editors reserve the right to redirect papers among book editor). Permission and fees are waived for the photocopying of themselves as appropriate unless an author specifically requests oth- isolated journal articles for nonprofit classroomor library reserve use by erwise. Rejection by one section editor is considered rejection by all; instructors and educational institutions. A permission fee may be therefore a manuscript rejected by one section editor should not be charged to the requester if students are charged for the material, submitted to another. The opinions and statements published are the multiple articles are copied, or large-scale copying is involved (e.g., for responsibility of the authors, and such opinions and statements do not course packs). Access services may use unedited abstracts without necessarily represent the policies of APA or the views of the editors. the permission of APA or the author. Libraries are permitted to photo- Section editors’ addresses appear below: copy beyond the limits of U.S. copyright law: (1) post-1977 articles, provided the per-copy fee in the code for this journal (0022-3514/06/ $12.00) is paid through the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rose- ATTITUDES AND SOCIAL COGNITION wood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923; (2) pre-1978 articles, provided that Charles M. Judd, Editor the per-copy fee stated in the Publishers’ Fee List is paid through the c/o Laurie Hawkins Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA Department of Psychology 01923. Address requests for reprint permission to the Permissions University of Colorado UCB 345 Office, American Psychological Association, 750 First Street, NE, Boulder, CO 80309 Washington, DC 20002-4242. APA Journal Staff: Susan J. A. Harris, Senior Director, Journals Pro- INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS AND GROUP gram; Skip Maier, Director, Journal Services; Paige W. Jackson, PROCESSES Director, Editorial Services; Becky Shaw, Account Manager; Jodi Ash- John F. Dovidio, Editor craft, Advertising Sales Manager. Department of Psychology University of Connecticut 406 Babbidge Road Storrs, CT 06269-1020 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (ISSN 0022-3514) is published monthly in two volumes per year by the American PERSONALITY PROCESSES AND INDIVIDUAL Psychological Association, 750 First Street, NE, Washington, DC DIFFERENCES 20002-4242. Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis only (January through December). The 2007 rates follow: Non- Charles S. Carver, Editor member Individual: $442 Domestic, $488 Foreign, $515 Air Mail. ATTN: JPSP: PPID Department of Psychology Institutional: $1,349 Domestic, $1,443 Foreign, $1,470 Air Mail. University of Miami APA Member: $208. Write to Subscriptions Department, American P.O. Box 248185 Psychological Association, 750 First Street, NE, Washington, DC Coral Gables, FL 33124-0751 20002-4242. Printed in the U.S.A. Periodicals postage paid at Change of Address: Send change of address notice and a recent Washington, DC, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: mailing label to the attention of the Subscriptions Department, American Send address changes to Journal of Personality and Social Psy- Psychological Association, 30 days prior to the actual change of address. chology, 750 First Street, NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. APA will not replace undelivered copies resulting from address changes; The paper in this journal meets or exceeds EPA guidelines for recycled paper. Since 1986, this journal has been printed on acid-free paper. NEW RELEASES from the American Psychological Association Second-Order Change Rumor Psychology in Psychotherapy Social and Organizational Approaches The Golden Thread That Unifies Nicholas DiFonzo and Prashant Bordia Effective Treatments 2007. 392 pages. Hardcover. J. Scott Fraser and Andrew D. Solovey List: $69.95 2007. 312 pages. Hardcover. APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 List: $69.95 ISBN 1-59147-426-4 APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-426-5 ISBN 1-59147-436-1 Item # 4316079 ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-436-4 Item # 4317117 Educating the Human Brain Michael I. Posner and Mary K. Rothbart Dialogues on Difference 2007. 272 pages. Hardcover. Studies of Diversity in the List: $79.95 Therapeutic Relationship APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 Edited by J. Christopher Muran ISBN 1-59147-381-0 2007. 336 pages. Hardcover. ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-381-7 List: $59.95 Item # 4318029 APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 ISBN 1-59147-451-5 Psychology and Economic Injustice ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-451-7 Personal, Professional, Item # 4316083 and Political Intersections Bernice Lott and Heather E. Bullock Insight in Psychotherapy 2007. 192 pages. Hardcover. Edited by Louis G. Castonguay List: $59.95 and Clara E. Hill APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 2007. 488 pages. Hardcover ISBN 1-59147-429-9 List: $69.95 ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-429-6 APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 Item # 4318029 ISBN 1-59147-477-9 ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-477-7 Bereavement in Late Life Item # 4317122 Coping, Adaptation, and Developmental Influences Contributions Toward Robert O. Hansson and Margaret S. Stroebe E Pvsiydcehnoccea-rBdaiosleodg y L2i0s0t:7 $. 25392.9 p5a g e s . Hardcover. A Systematic Review APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 of the Literature ISBN 1-59147-472-8 Edited by Jochen Jordan, Benjamin Bardé ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-472-2 and Andreas Michael Zeiher Item # 4317119 2007. 552 pages. Hardcover. List: $99.95 APA Dictionary of Psychology APA Member/Affiliate: $59.95 Editor-in-Chief: Gary R. VandenBos ISBN 1-59147-358-6 2006. 1,008 pages. Hardcover. ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-358-9 List: $49.95 Item # 4318028 APA Member/Affiliate: $39.95 ISBN 1-59147-380-2 Shy Children, Phobic Adults ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-380-0 Nature and Treatment of Item # 4311007 Social Anxiety Disorder Second Edition Deborah C. Beidel and Samuel M. Turner 2007. 408 pages. Hardcover. List: $59.95 APA Member/Affiliate: $49.95 ISBN 1-59147-452-3 ISBN-13: 978-1-59147-452-4 Item # 4317118 AD0472 To Order: 800-374-2721 • www.apa.org/books Available July 2006 apa books A Landmark Reference That Defi nes the Lexicon of Psychology APA Dictionary of Psychology Editor-in-Chief: Gary R. VandenBos, PhD The American Psychological Association is proud to announce the publication of an invaluable addition to your reference shelf, one that represents a major scholarly and editorial undertaking. With over 25,000 terms and defi nitions, the APA Dictionary of Psychology encompasses all areas of research and application, and includes coverage of concepts, processes, and therapies across all the major subdisciplines of psychology. Ten years in the making and edited by a distinguished editorial board of nearly 100 psychological scholars, researchers and practitioners, the Dictionary is destined to become the most authoritative reference of its kind. Academicians, researchers, clinicians, undergraduates and graduate students, and professionals in allied mental health, education, medicine, and law, as well as academic and public libraries, will fi nd the Dictionary essential. 2006. Hardcover. 1,008 pages. List: $49.95 | APA Member/Affi liate: $39.95 ISBN 1-59147-380-2 | Item # 4311007 The APA Dictionary of Psychology includes • 2 5,000 entries offering clear and authoritative defi nitions • T housands of incisive cross-references directing the user to synonyms and antonyms, acronyms and abbreviations, and related terms and concepts that deepen the user’s understanding of related topics • B alanced coverage of over 100 subject areas across the fi eld of psychology including clinical, experimental, neuropsychology, cognitive, personality and social, developmental, health, psychopharmacology, methodology and statistics, and many others • E Pnstyrciehso liongcilcuadle I nndeeaxrl yT e8rm,0s0®0 w tehricmhs hferolpms tshtue dAePnAts’s aTnhde sraeuseruasrc ohfe rs refi ne their APA database searches (such as the fl agship PsycINFO® bibliographic database’s 2+ million records) 800-374-2721 www.apa.org/books • “ iAm pGouridtaen t os tUyslies”ti ca nadn d“ Qfourimcka tG ufeidateu rteos F toor mhaetlp” trheatd etorsg emthoesrt exffpelcatinv ely use the Dictionary • E ach of four appendices gathers terms into a thematic summary listing, covering (1) biographies; (2) institutions, associations and organizations; (3) psychological therapies and interventions; and (4) psychological tests and assessment instruments AD0470 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology www.apa.org/journals/psp October 2006 Copyright © 2006 by the VOLUME 91 NUMBER 4 American Psychological Association Attitudes and Social Cognition 583 Accuracy, Error, and Bias in Predictions for Real Versus Hypothetical Events David A. Armor and Aaron M. Sackett 601 Regulatory Fit as Input for Stop Rules Leigh Ann Vaughn, Jill Malik, Sandra Schwartz, Zhivka Petkova, and Lindsay Trudeau 612 See What You Want to See: Motivational Influences on Visual Perception Emily Balcetis and David Dunning 626 Jealousy and the Threatened Self: Getting to the Heart of the Green-Eyed Monster David DeSteno, Piercarlo Valdesolo, and Monica Y. Bartlett Interpersonal Relations and Group Processes 642 Romantic Involvement Often Reduces Men’s Testosterone Levels—But Not Always: The Moderating Role of Extrapair Sexual Interest Matthew McIntyre, Steven W. Gangestad, Peter B. Gray, Judith Flynn Chapman, Terence C. Burnham, Mary T. O’Rourke, and Randy Thornhill 652 Stereotyping and Evaluation in Implicit Race Bias: Evidence for Independent Constructs and Unique Effects on Behavior David M. Amodio and Patricia G. Devine 662 Regulation Processes in Intimate Relationships: The Role of Ideal Standards Nickola C. Overall, Garth J.O. Fletcher, and Jeffry A. Simpson 686 Procedural Justice and the Hedonic Principle: How Approach Versus Avoidance Motivation Influences the Psychology of Voice Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Johan C. Karremans, and Ilja van Beest 698 The Paradox of Group-Based Guilt: Modes of National Identification, Conflict Vehemence, and Reactions to the In-Group’s Moral Violations Sonia Roccas, Yechiel Klar, and Ido Liviatan 712 Negotiation From a Near and Distant Time Perspective Marlone D. Henderson, Yaacov Trope, and Peter J. Carnevale (contents continue) Personality Processes and Individual Differences 730 Psychological Resilience, Positive Emotions, and Successful Adaptation to Stress in Later Life Anthony D. Ong, C. S. Bergeman, Toni L. Bisconti, and Kimberly A. Wallace 750 The Differential Effects of Intrinsic and Identified Motivation on Well-Being and Performance: Prospective, Experimental, and Implicit Approaches to Self-Determination Theory Kimberly D. Burton, John E. Lydon, David U. D’Alessandro, and Richard Koestner 763 A First Large Cohort Study of Personality Trait Stability Over the 40 Years Between Elementary School and Midlife Sarah E. Hampson and Lewis R. Goldberg 780 Relating Emotional Abilities to Social Functioning: A Comparison of Self-Report and Performance Measures of Emotional Intelligence Marc A. Brackett, Susan E. Rivers, Sara Shiffman, Nicole Lerner, and Peter Salovey Other 697 American Psychological Association Subscription Claims Information 600 E-Mail Notification of Your Latest Issue Online! 779 Instructions to Authors 749 Low Publication Prices for APA Members and Affiliates ii ATTITUDES AND SOCIAL COGNITION CHARLES M. JUDD, Editor University of Colorado at Boulder ASSOCIATE EDITORS ALICE H. EAGLY NIRA LIBERMAN LINDA SKITKA Northwestern University Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel University of Illinois at Chicago DACHER KELTNER University of California, Berkeley NICHOLAS EPLEY DIANE M. MACKIE JOHN SKOWRONSKI University of Chicago University of California, Santa Barbara Northern Illinois University ANNE MAASS Universita` di Padova, Padova, Italy RUSSELL H. FAZIO NEIL MACRAE ELIOT R. SMITH Ohio State University Dartmouth College Indiana University Bloomington BERND WITTENBRINK University of Chicago LISA FELDMAN BARRETT TONY MANSTEAD DIEDERIK STAPEL Boston College Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales University of Groningen, Groningen, VINCENT YZERBYT Catholic University of Louvain, SUSAN T. FISKE THOMAS MUSSWEILER the Netherlands Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Princeton University Universita¨ t Ko¨ ln, Cologne, Germany FRITZ STRACK CONSULTING EDITORS BARBARA L. FREDRICKSON JAMES M. OLSON Universita¨ t Wu¨ rzburg, Wu¨ rzburg, University of Michigan University of Western Ontario, Germany ICEK AJZEN London, Ontario, Canada University of Massachusetts WENDI GARDNER ABRAHAM TESSER Northwestern University BERNADETTE M. PARK University of Georgia MAHZARIN BANAJI University of Colorado at Boulder Harvard University DANIEL GILBERT YAACOV TROPE Harvard University RICHARD E. PETTY New York University MONICA BIERNAT Ohio State University THOMAS GILOVICH University of Kansas THERESA K. VESCIO Cornell University NEAL J. ROESE Pennsylvania State University IRENE V. BLAIR ANTHONY G. GREENWALD University of Illinois at Urbana– University of Colorado at Boulder University of Washington Champaign WILLIAM VON HIPPEL University of New South Wales, GALEN V. BODENHAUSEN DAVID L. HAMILTON MYRON ROTHBART Sydney, Australia Northwestern University University of California, Santa University of Oregon DUANE T. WEGENER MARKUS BRAUER Barbara LAURIE RUDMAN Purdue University LAPSCO, Universite´ Blaise Pascal EDWARD R. HIRT Rutgers, The State University Clermont-Ferrand, France Indiana University Bloomington of New Jersey DANIEL M. WEGNER Harvard University MARILYNN B. BREWER TIFFANY ITO MARK SCHALLER Ohio State University University of Colorado at Boulder University of British Columbia, DIRK WENTURA JOHN T. CACIOPPO Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Saarland University, Saarbru¨ cken, YOSHIHISA KASHIMA University of Chicago University of Melbourne, Victoria, TONI SCHMADER Germany OLIVIER CORNEILLE Australia University of Arizona DANIEL WIGBOLDUS Catholic University of Louvain, KARLE CHRISTOPHE KLAUER NORBERT SCHWARZ Radboud University Nijmegen, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Albrecht-Ludwigs-Universita¨ t University of Michigan Nijmegen, the Netherlands PATRICIA DEVINE Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany GU¨ N R. SEMIN TIMOTHY D. WILSON University of Wisconsin—Madison ARIE W. KRUGLANSKI Free University, Amsterdam, the University of Virginia University of Maryland Netherlands AP DIJKSTERHUIS PIOTR WINKIELMEN University of Amsterdam, ALAN LAMBERT JEFFREY W. SHERMAN University of California, San Diego Amsterdam, the Netherlands Washington University in St. Louis University of California, Davis MARK P. ZANNA DAVID DUNNING JENNIFER LERNER STEVEN J. SHERMAN University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Cornell University Carnegie Mellon University Indiana University Bloomington Ontario, Canada ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR—LAURIE HAWKINS INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS AND GROUP PROCESSES JOHN F. DOVIDIO, Editor University of Connecticut ASSOCIATE EDITORS ARTHUR ARON RUPERT BROWN KLAUS FIEDLER DAPHNE BLUNT BUGENTAL State University of New York at The University of Kent at Canterbury, University of Heidelberg, University of California, Santa Barbara Stony Brook Canterbury, England Heidelberg, Germany XIMENA ARRIAGA LORNE CAMPBELL GARTH FLETCHER BEVERLEY FEHR Purdue University University of Western Ontario, University of Canterbury, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, London, Ontario, Canada Christchurch, New Zealand Manitoba, Canada WINTON W. T. AU SHELLY GABLE SERENA CHEN The Chinese University of Hong Kong, JACQUES-PHILIPPE LEYENS University of California, Los Angeles University of California, Berkeley Shatin, Hong Kong Catholic University of Louvain, LOWELL GAERTNER Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium MARK BALDWIN MARGARET CLARK University of Tennessee, Knoxville McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Yale University ANTONY MANSTEAD SAMUEL L. GAERTNER Canada CARSTEN DE DREU Cardiff University, Cardiff, University of Delaware KIM BARTHOLOMEW University of Amsterdam, United Kingdom Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Amsterdam, the Netherlands ADAM GALINSKY Northwestern University JEFFRY A. SIMPSON British Columbia, Canada STE´ PHANIE DEMOULIN University of Minnesota, C. DANIEL BATSON Catholic University of Louvain PETER GLICK Twin Cities Campus University of Kansas Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, and Lawrence University Belgan National Fund for Scientific STEPHANIE A. GOODWIN SCOTT TINDALE B. ANNE BETTENCOURT Research, Brussels, Belgium Purdue University Loyola University Chicago University of Missouri—Columbia DAVID DESTENO MARTIE G. HASSELTON JACQUIE D. VORAUER GERD BOHNER Northeastern University University of California, Los Angeles University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Universita¨ t Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Manitoba, Canada Germany STEVE DRIGOTAS S. ALEXANDER HASLAM Johns Hopkins University University of Exeter, Exeter, NIALL BOLGER CONSULTING EDITORS United Kingdom Columbia University ELISSA S. EPEL DOMINIC ABRAMS University of California, San VERLIN HINSZ University of Kent at Canterbury, NYLA R. BRANSCOMBE Francisco North Dakota State University Canterbury, England University of Kansas VICTORIA ESSES GORDON HODSON CHRIS AGNEW JONATHON D. BROWN University of Western Ontario, Brock University, St. Catherine’s, Purdue University University of Washington London, Ontario, Canada Ontario, Canada (editors continue) MICHAEL A. HOGG LAURA J. KRAY SABINE OTTEN CHRISTINE SMITH University of Queensland, University of California, Berkeley University of Gro¨ ningen, Grand Valley State University Brisbane, Australia Gro¨ ningen, the Netherlands JAMES R. LARSON JR. HEATHER J. SMITH ANDREA B. HOLLINGSHEAD University of Illinois at Chicago CRAIG D. PARKS Sonoma State University University of Southern California Washington State University COLIN WAYNE LEACH RUSSELL SPEARS JOHN G. HOLMES University of Sussex, Sussex, United LOUIS A. PENNER Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Kingdom Wayne State University CHARLES STANGOR Ontario, Canada JOHN LEVINE PAULA PIETROMONACO University of Maryland RICK H. HOYLE University of Pittsburgh University of Massachusetts at GARY L. STASSER University of Kentucky Amherst JOHN E. LYDON Miami University—Ohio JOLANDA JETTEN McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, TOM POSTMES WALTER STEPHAN University of Exeter, Exeter, Canada University of Exeter, Exeter, United New Mexico State University United Kingdom Kingdom JON K. MANER WILLIAM B. SWANN JR. JAMES D. JOHNSON Florida State University FELICIA PRATTO University of Texas at Austin University of North Carolina at University of Connecticut BRENDA MAJOR Wilmington JANET SWIM University of California, Santa HARRY T. REIS TATSUYA KAMEDA Barbara University of Rochester Pennsylvania State University Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan LEIGH L. THOMPSON CRAIG MCGARTY W. STEVEN RHOLES BENJAMIN R. KARNEY Australian National University, Texas A&M University Northwestern University RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Canberra, Australia JENNIFER A. RICHESON TOM TYLER California New York University Northwestern University WENDY BERRY MENDES YOSHI KASHIMA Harvard University MARK SCHALLER JEROEN VAES University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia University of British Columbia, University of Padova, Padova, Italy RICHARD MORELAND DEBORAH A. KASHY University of Pittsburgh Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada KEES VAN DEN BOS Michigan State University DAVID A. SCHROEDER University of Utrecht, Utrecht, BRIAN MULLEN KERRY KAWAKAMI University of Arkansas the Netherlands University of Kent at Canterbury, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Canterbury, England CONSTANTINE SEDIKIDES PAUL A. M. VAN LANGE JANICE R. KELLY AME´ LIE MUMMENDEY University of Southampton, Free University, Amsterdam, Purdue University Southampton, England Amsterdam, the Netherlands Friedrich-Schiller-Universita¨ t, Jena, DACHER KELTNER Jena, Germany PHILLIP R. SHAVER LAURIE R. WEINGART University of California, Berkeley University of California, Davis Carnegie Mellon University MARK MURAVEN DAVID A. KENNY University at Albany, State University J. NICOLE SHELTON GWEN M. WITTENBAUM University of Connecticut of New York Princeton University Michigan State University DOUGLAS T. KENRICK SANDRA L. MURRAY MARGARET SHIH WENDY L. WOOD Arizona State University State University of New York at Buffalo University of Michigan Texas A&M University NORBERT L. KERR LISA A. NEFF STACEY SINCLAIR MICHAEL ZA´ RATE Michigan State University University of Toledo University of Virginia University of Texas at El Paso ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR—CHRISTINE KELLY PERSONALITY PROCESSES AND INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES CHARLES S. CARVER, Editor University of Miami ASSOCIATE EDITORS GEORGE A. BONANNO EDDIE HARMON-JONES DANIEL W. RUSSELL TIM KASSER Teachers College, Texas A&M University Iowa State University Knox College Columbia University TODD HEATHERTON OLIVER C. SCHULTHEISS MARIO MIKULINCER AVSHALOM CASPI Dartmouth College University of Michigan Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, Israel King’s Colege, London SUZANNE C. SEGERSTROM JUTTA HECKHAUSEN EDWARD C. CHANG University of California, Irvine University of Kentucky EVA M. POMERANTZ University of Ilinois at Urbana– University of Michigan STEVEN J. HEINE KENNON M. SHELDON Champaign SERENA CHEN University of British Columbia, University of Missouri—Columbia University of California, Berkeley Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada C. R. SNYDER RICHARD W. ROBINS University of Kansas University of California, Davis A. TIMOTHY CHURCH RICHARD KOESTNER Washington State University McGill University SANJAY SRIVASTAVA GERARD SAUCIER Montreal, Quebec, Canada University of Oregon University of Oregon JAMES COAN University of Wisconsin—Madison DAVID LUBINSKI TIMOTHY STRAUMAN THOMAS A. WIDIGER Vanderbilt University Duke University M. LYNNE COOPER University of Kentucky University of Missouri—Columbia RICHARD E. LUCAS MICHAEL J. STRUBE CONSULTING EDITORS Michigan State University Washington University MICHAEL EID STEPHAN A. AHADI JERRY SULS University of Geneva, Geneva, ROBERT R. MCCRAE American Institutes for Research, University of Iowa Switzerland National Institute on Aging, Baltimore Washington, DC WILLIAM B. SWANN JR. ANDREW J. ELLIOT WENDY BERRY MENDES JAMIE ARNDT University of Texas at Austin University of Rochester Harvard University University of Missouri—Columbia HOWARD TENNEN LISA FELDMAN BARRETT RODOLFO MENDOZA-DENTON University of Connecticut Health JENS B. ASENDORPF Boston College University of California, Berkeley Center Humboldt-Universita¨ t Berlin WILLIAM FLEESON DANIEL K. MROCZEK Berlin, Germany SUZANNE THOMPSON Wake Forest University Fordham University Pomona College MICHAEL C. ASHTON R. CHRIS FRALEY STEPHEN A. PETRILL Brock University, St. Catherines, ROBERT J. VALLERAND University of Illinois at Chicago Pennsylvania State University Ontario, Canada Universite´ du Que´ bec a` Montre´ al ANTONIO L. FREITAS RALPH L. PIEDMONT Montreal, Quebec, Canada OZLEM AYDUK State University of New York at Loyola College in Maryland KATHLEEN D. VOHS University of California, Berkeley Stony Brook E. ASHBY PLANT University of Minnesota ROY F. BAUMEISTER DAVID C. FUNDER Florida State University DAVID WATSON Florida State University University of California, Riverside BRENT ROBERTS University of Iowa VERO´ NICA BENET-MARTI´NEZ STEVEN W. GANGESTAD University of Illinois at BARBARA WOIKE University of California, Riverside University of New Mexico Urbana–Champaign Columbia University APRIL L. BLESKE-RECHEK CAROL L. GOHM MICHAEL D. ROBINSON REX A. WRIGHT University of Wisconsin—Eau Claire University of Mississippi North Dakota State University University of Alabama at Birmingham ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR—JESSICA LILLESAND ATTITUDES AND SOCIAL COGNITION Accuracy, Error, and Bias in Predictions for Real Versus Hypothetical Events David A. Armor and Aaron M. Sackett Yale University Participants made predictions about performance on tasks that they did or did not expect to complete. In three experiments, participants in task-unexpected conditions were unrealistically optimistic: They overestimated how well they would perform, often by a large margin, and their predictions were not correlated with their performance. By contrast, participants assigned to task-expected conditions made predictions that were not only less optimistic but strikingly accurate. Consistent with predictions from construal level theory, data from a fourth experiment suggest that it is the uncertainty associated with hypothetical tasks, and not a lack of cognitive processing, that frees people to make optimistic prediction errors. Unrealistic optimism, when it occurs, may be truly unrealistic; however, it may be less ubiquitous than has been previously suggested. Keywords: optimism, optimistic bias, prediction, accuracy, construal level theory How accurate are people’s visions of the future? The general overestimate how well they will do on exams (Shepperd, Ouellette, consensus, which may be gleaned from even a brief perusal of & Fernandez, 1996) and to underestimate how long it will take for research on personal forecasts, is that people are not very accurate them to complete their assignments (Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, at all. To date, several hundred studies have shown that people’s 1994). Undergraduate and professional (Master of Business Ad- predictions tend to be excessively and unrealistically optimistic ministration) students tend to overestimate their prospects for (Weinstein, 1998; for reviews, see Armor & Taylor, 1998, 2002; success on the job market (Hoch, 1985; Shepperd et al., 1996), and Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 2002; Helweg-Larsen & Shepperd, even gainfully employed professional financial analysts tend to 2001). To be sure, some degree of error in personal prediction is to overestimate corporate earnings (Calderon, 1993; Lim, 2001). A be expected. As Yogi Berra famously, if mythically, aphorized, great deal of research has also shown that people of all ages and 1 “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” backgrounds tend to overestimate how likely they are to experi- However, people’s predictions appear to be prone not only to ence a wide variety of positive outcomes, and to underestimate error—random deviations and distortions that would be expected how likely they are to experience an even wider variety of negative to balance out over the long run—but to consistent and pervasive outcomes relative to other people (e.g., Weinstein, 1980, 1987; see bias. The common conclusion from studies of personal forecasts is also Perloff & Fetzer, 1986; Quadrel, Fischhoff, & Davis, 1993; cf. that people expect that their futures will be more pleasant and less Heine & Lehman, 1995; for a review, see Helweg-Larsen & painful than they have any right to expect them to be. Shepperd, 2001). Examples of optimistic biases in personal predictions are not Despite the prevalence of these demonstrations, which give the difficult to find, whether in real life or in the relatively artificial impression that optimistic biases may be nearly unavoidable (see, confines of the research laboratory. Students, for example, tend to e.g., Weinstein & Klein, 1995), there is a growing body of research suggesting that this portrait of unwavering optimism may be overly simplified (see Armor & Taylor, 1998, 2002; Shepperd, Sweeny, & Carroll, 2006). There are at least two reasons for this. David A. Armor and Aaron M. Sackett, Department of Psychology, Yale University. First, research that provides a clear criterion for evaluating pre- Aaron M. Sackett is now at the Graduate School of Business, University diction accuracy (e.g., by comparing predictions to attained out- of Chicago. comes) has shown that people’s predictions often may be optimis- We thank Melissa Blakeley, Aimee Keen, and Leslie Ono for assistance with data collection, Clayton Critcher and Han-Ya Hsu for help with data 1 coding, and Gregory Miller for suggesting the lyric with which we close Although commonly attributed to Berra, this statement may be more a the article. part of the Hall of Fame catcher’s legend than of his loquacious history; Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to David A. Berra himself admitted “I really didn’t say everything I said” (Berra, 1998). Armor, who is now at the Department of Psychology, San Diego State Near paraphrases have also been attributed, with comparable frequency, to University, San Diego, CA 92182-4611. E-mail: 584 ARMOR AND SACKETT tically biased without being entirely unrealistic. Research on the a “social situation” and that psychologists should be mindful of the planning fallacy, for example, has shown that whereas people’s effects that these situations have, above and beyond any effects of task completion estimates tend to be overly optimistic (in that the experimental manipulations, on the thoughts, feelings, and people expect to be able to do more in less time than they are observable behaviors of research participants. Tetlock’s critique of typically able to do), these same estimates tend to be quite highly decontextualized research on judgmental errors and biases makes correlated with actual task completion times (correlations between similar arguments (e.g., Tetlock, 1992; Tetlock & Lerner, 1999; predicted and actual completion times in the initial studies of the see also Schwarz, 1994). planning fallacy ranged from .36 to .81; see Buehler et al., 1994). Although a tremendous number of studies have shown that Thus, although biased, these optimistic predictions do not appear people tend to be excessively optimistic, a close look at the to be completely divorced from reality. One of the goals of the contexts in which these data have been collected reveal that the present research, then, is to provide a clear criterion against which overwhelming majority of these studies have been conducted in a the accuracy of individual predictions can be assessed. manner that may be especially conducive to the expression of Second, people do not appear to be indiscriminately optimistic unrealistic optimism. In most studies, accuracy incentives are but to be sensitive to the context in which they make their predic- either minimal or absent altogether, as participants are often asked tions (Armor & Taylor, 1998, 2002; Shepperd et al., 2006). There to make predictions anonymously and without concern about pos- is an accumulating body of research suggesting that people may be sible consequences of inaccurate predictions. In many cases the more likely to be overly optimistic in situations in which it is less outcome of participants’ predictions simply cannot be known—by likely that the accuracy of their predictions will be tested or either the researcher or the person making the prediction—and, as challenged or in situations in which the consequences of being inaccurate are expected to be less severe. For example, whereas a consequence, prediction accuracy itself is often impossible to students tend to overestimate how well they will do on their exams, verify. In the modal study, for example, young, healthy college this optimism is most prominent (and most unrealistic) when those students might be asked of their chances, relative to the chances of exams are some time away; optimistic biases appear to be much other young, healthy college students, of one day succumbing to less pronounced as the “moment of truth” draws near (Gilovich, cancer, of needing dentures, or of being fired from a job for which Kerr, & Medvec, 1993; Shepperd et al., 1996, Study 2). Similarly, they have yet to be hired. Although these may all be meaningful whereas several studies have found that students overestimate how questions, and although arguments can be made about their rele- much they will earn in their first job, students tend to see their job vance to respondents’ current behavior (e.g., decisions to smoke, prospects in more modest terms—and, indeed, accurately estimate eat sweets, or to develop the “seven coveted habits of highly their starting salary—as they approach the market for real (Shep- effective employees”), these outcomes are also likely to be quite perd et al., 1996, Study 1). Even Calderon’s (1993) analysis of far removed from most participants’ current concerns. To the professional analysts’ financial predictions revealed a systematic extent that research participants are asked to estimate the proba- decline in optimistic bias as a function of the proximity of the bility of hypothetical outcomes or outcomes that are unimaginably forecast date to the realization date (although optimistic bias was distant, it seems possible that they may be aware of the fundamen- evident even among the most proximal predictions). tally unverifiable nature of their predictions and that they may, On the basis of results such as these, Armor and Taylor (1998, knowingly or unknowingly, alter their predictions accordingly. 2002) have argued that people are not indiscriminately optimistic, Of course, not all studies of unrealistic optimism have involved but are “situated optimists” and that the expression of optimistic predictions for entirely hypothetical outcomes. Research on the biases is not invariant within persons but rather is largely depen- planning fallacy, for example, has asked participants to make dent on the social and psychological context in which people find 2 predictions about tasks they knew they would be completing (see themselves. The notion that optimistic biases are not inherent Buehler et al., 2002, for review), and at least one study (Camerer within persons but situated within contexts raises a number of & Lovallo, 1999) has found evidence of unrealistic optimism even important theoretical questions—namely, when and why do people tend to be unrealistically optimistic?—but also raises the question when participants could (and did) lose money as a function of their of whether the prevalence of unrealistic optimism may be over- or overly optimistic self-assessments. It is not entirely clear, however, underestimated as a function of the experimental setting in which to what extent participants in these studies may have been even unrealistic optimism is typically studied (for similar arguments, more optimistic—and potentially more unrealistically optimis- see Gilovich et al., 1993, p. 559). In other words, it is not clear tic—had predictions been made without the expectation that pre- whether the seemingly common expressions of unrealistic opti- dictions would be verified. mism reflect a general tendency for people to be optimistic or an equally general tendency for psychologists to measure optimism in settings in which unrealistic optimism may be especially likely to 2 The notion that optimism is situated does not deny that there are be expressed. meaningful individual differences in people’s tendency to be optimistic (see, e.g., Norem & Cantor, 1986; Scheier, Carver, & Bridges, 1994). The Social Psychology of the Unrealistic Optimism However, studies examining the relationship between optimism as a gen- Experiment eral trait and specific instantiations of optimism in individual predictions reveal little correspondence between the two (Armor & Taylor, 1998; In the early 1960s, Orne (1962) published an influential critique Buehler & Griffin, 2003). Our focus, therefore, is on outcome-specific suggesting that psychologists—social psychologists in particu- expectations and not more generalized expectancies captured by measures lar—should pay careful attention to the psychology experiment as of dispositional optimism.