VOLUME 50 LIST OF CONTENTS Number 1 Editorial Alvan R. Feinstein and The State of the Journal Jan P. Vandenbroucke Original Articles WHO MONICA Project Mild myocardial infarction—A classification problem in epidemi- (prepared by: Veikko Salomaa, ologic studies Annette Dobson, Heikki Miettinen, Anna-Maija Rajakangas, and Kari Kuulasmaa Roger J. Marshall Assessment of exposure misclassification bias in case-control stud- ies using validation data William J. Mackillop and Carol F. Quirt Measuring the accuracy of prognostic judgments in oncology Clermont E. Dionne, Thomas D. Koepsell, Predicting long-term functional limitations among back pain pa- Michael Von Korff, Richard A. Deyo, tients in primary care settings William E. Barlow, and Harvey Checkoway Susan C. Scott, Mark S. Goldberg, and Statistical assessment of ordinal outcomes in comparative studies Nancy E. Mayo Patricia O’Campo, Melanie de Boer, Confirmation of self-report of HIV testing among a cohort of preg- Ruth Faden, Nancy Kass, Andrea Gielen, nant women and Marguerite Barbacci R. T. Ross, Lindsay E. Nicolle, and The varicella zoster virus: A pilot trial of a potential therapeutic Mary Cheang agent in multiple sclerosis Manami Inoue, Kazuo Tajima, Epidemiological features of first-visit outpatients in Japan: Com- Kaoru Hirose, Nobuyuki Hamajima, parison with general population and variation by sex, age, and Toshiro Takezaki, Tetsuo Kuroishi, and season Suketami Tominagi Dorcas E. Beaton, Sheilah Hogg-Johnson, Evaluating changes in health status: Reliability and responsiveness and Claire Bombardier of five generic health status measures in workers with musculo- skeletal disorders Hans Norin, Maria Krafft, Johnny Korner, Injury severity assessment for car occupants in frontal impacts, Ake Nygren, and Claes Tingvall using disability scaling Pharmacoepidemiology Report John F. Steiner and Allan V. Prochazka The assessment of refill compliance using pharmacy records: Methods, validity, and applications Second Thoughts Rolf Holle and Jiirgen Windeler Is there a gain from ‘‘chance-corrected’’ measures of diagnostic validity? Number 2 Original Articles P. W. Thomas, D. R. Higgs, and Benign clinical course in homozygous sickle cell disease: A search G. R. Serjeant for predictors Paul V. Grootendorst, David H. Feeny, and Does it matter whom and how you ask? Inter- and intra-rater agree- William Furlong ment in the Ontario Health Survey Pamela J. Smith, Michael E. K. Moffatt, Are community health interventions evaluated appropriately? A Shirley C. Gelskey, Shauna Hudson, and review of six journals Kelly Kaita Matti Kemppainen, Ismo Raiha, and A marked increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer over two Leif Sourander decades in southwest Finland Qing Qiao, Sirkka Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi, The relationship between hemoglobin levels and diabetic reti- and Esa Laara nopathy Thomas Waldhoer, Edith Schober, and Long-term patterns in seasonality of insulin-dependent diabetes Jaakko Tuomilehto mellitus diagnosis in Austrien children Michael D. Murray, Paul Stang, and Health care use by inner-city patients with asthma William M. Tierney Jeanne A. Teresi and Douglas Holmes Reporting source bias in estimating prevalence of cognitive im- pairment Mark A. Hlatky, Derek B. Boothroyd, Long-term cost-effectiveness of alternative management strategies Iain M. Johnstone, Frank I. Marcus, for patients with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias Elizabeth Hahn, Vernon Hartz, and Jay W. Mason, for the ESVEM Investigators Niccol6é Marchionni, Luigi Ferrucci, Item re-scaling of an Italian version of the Sickness Impact Profile: Samuele Baldasseroni, Stefano Fumagalli, Effect of age and profession of the observers Jack M. Guralnik, Maura Bonazinga, Francesca Cecchi, and Giulio Masotti Rajeev Gupta, H. Prakash, V. P. Gupta, Prevalence and determinants of coronary heart disease in a rural and K. D. Gupta population of India Hermann Brenner and Olaf Gefeller Deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term patient survival Pharmacoepidemiology Report R. Sift Carter, D. Ebner, D. Brenner, Use of topical NSAIDs in patients receiving systemic NSAID and R. Bruppacher treatment: A pharmacy-based study in Germany Second Thoughts Jack E. Riggs An epidemiological pitfall using mortality as a long-term outcome measure in therapeutic studies comparing ‘‘age-matched’’ groups Letter to the Editors Miquel Porta, Jaume Marrugat, and Trends in cardiovascular mortality and the quality of vital statistics Gloria Pérez Knud Juel Response Number 3 Commentaries Samuel Shapiro Is meta-analysis a valid approach to the evalution of small effects in observational studies? Gustaaf P. Sevenhuysen and Jan Trumble- A new perspective on quality of life Waddell Original Articles Elizabeth F. Juniper, Gordon H. Guyatt, Clinical impact versus factor analysis for quality of life question- David L. Streiner, and Derek R. King naire construction James G. Wright and Nancy L. Young A comparison of different indices of responsiveness Joel Coste, Francis Guillemin, Methodological approaches to shortening composite measurement Jacques Pouchot, and Jacques Fermanian scales Michael W. Ogden, Walter T. Morgan, National incidence of smoking and misclassification among the David L. Heavner, Riley A. Davis, and U.S. married female population Thomas J. Steichen Gillian A. Hawker, Peter C. Coyte, Accuracy of administrative data for assessing outcomes after knee James G. Wright, John E. Paul, and replacement surgery Claire Bombardier W. J. M. J. Gorgels, Y. v. d. Graaf, Urinary sex hormone excretions in premenopausal women and M. A. Blankenstein, H. J. A. Collette, coronary heart disease risk: A nested case-referent study in the D. W. Erkelens, and J. D. Banga DOM-cohort Mary E. Northridge, George G. Rhoads, The importance of histologic type on breast cancer survival Daniel Wartenberg, and Dawn Koffman William K. Scott, Caroline A. Macera, Functional health status as a predictor of mortality in men and Carol B. Cornman, and Patricia A. Sharpe women over 65 Kangmin Zhu, Robert S. Levine, The relationship of hepatitis history and pathological diagnosis of Edward A. Brann, and Marianna K. Baum primary liver cancer Seren Friis, Susanne Kriiger Kjaer, Reproducibility and relative validity of a self-administered semi- Connie Stripp, and Kim Overvad quantitative food frequency quesionnaire applied to younger women Pharmacoepidemiology Report Patrick Cherin, Alain Colvez, Risk of syncope in the elderly and consumption of drugs: A case- Gilles Deville de Periere, and Daniel Sereni control study Stephan F. Lanes, Brenda Birmann, International trends in sales of inhaled fenoterol, all inhaled # Drusilla Raiford, and Alexander M. Walker agonists, and asthma mortality, 1970-1992 René Leyva-F., Joaquina Erviti-E., Medical drug utilization patterns for febrile patients in rural areas Janine M. Ramsey, and Nadine Gasman of Mexico R. T. Ross and Mary Cheang Common infectious diseases in a population with low multiple sclerosis and varicella occurrence K. Furu, B. Straume, and D. S. Thelle Legal drug use in a general population: Association with gender, morbidity, health care utilization, and lifestyle characteristics A. D. McMahon, J. M. M. Evans, G. White, A cohort study (with re-sampled comparator groups) to measure F. E. Murray, M. M. McGilchrist, the association between new NSAID prescribing and upper gastro- D. G. McDevitt, and T. M. MacDonald intestinal hemorrhage and perforation Marie-José Dealberto, Teresa Seeman, Factors related to current and subsequent psychotropic drug use Gail J. McAvay, and Lisa Berkman in an elderly cohort Letter to the Editor Ross L. Barnhardt, Gerald van Belle, Referral bias in Alzheimer’s disease Steven D. Edland, and Eric Larson Walter A. Rocca and Emre Kokmen Response Number 4 Original Articles Bjarne Jansson, Lars Age Johansson, National adaptations of the ICD rules for classification—a prob- Mans Rosén, and Leif Svanstrém lem in the evaluation of cause-of-death trends I. McDowell, B. Kristjansson, G. B. Hill, Community screening for dementia: The Mini Mental State Exam and R. Hébert (MMSE) and Modified Mini-Mental State Exam (3MS) compared Jeannette R. Ickovics and Adherence in AIDS clinical trials: A framework for clinical re- Andrew W. Meisler search and clinical care D. De Bacquer, G. De Backer, Intra-individual variability of fibrinogen levels L. Braeckman, and G. Baele D. R. Zucker, C. H. Schmid, Combining single patient (N-of-1) trials to estimate population M. W. McIntosh, R. B. D’Agostino, treatment effects and to evaluate individual patient responses to H. P. Selker, and J. Lau treatment Sarah McCue Horwitz, The influence of psychological and social factors on accuracy of Alexandra Prados-Torres, Burton Singer, self-reported blood pressure and Martha Livingston Bruce Dima Abi-Said, John F. Annegers, A case-control evaluation of treatment efficacy: The example of Deborah Combs-Cantrell, Rabih Suki, magnesium sulfate prophylaxis against eclampsia in patients with Ralph F. Frankowski, and preeclampsia L. James Willmore Michiko Yamada, F. Lennie Wong, Longitudinal trends in total serum cholesterol levels in a Japanese Kazunori Kodama, Hideo Sasaki, cohort, 1958-1986 Katsutaro Shimaoka, and Michio Yamakido R. A. G. Winkens, J. A. Knottnerus, Fitting a routine health-care activity into a randomized trial: An A. D. M. Kester, R. P. T. M. Grol, and experiment possible without informed consent? P. Pop Mogens Groenvold, Marianne Carol Klee, Validation of the EORTC QLQ-C30 quality of life questionnaire Mirjam A. G. Sprangers, and through combined qualitative and quantitative assessment of pa- Neil K. Aaronson tient—observer agreement Colleen A. McHorney, Stephen M. Haley, Evaluation of the MOS SF-36 Physical Functioning Scale (PF- and John E. Ware, Jr. 10): Il. Comparison of relative precision using Likert and Rasch scoring methods Luis Prieto, Jordi Alonso, Montse Ferrer, Are results of the SF-36 health survey and the Nottingham Health and Josep M. Anto for the Quality of Life Profile similar?: A comparison in COPD patients in COPD Study Group Bjarne K. Jacobsen, Steinar Nilssen, Does age at natural menopause affect mortality from ischemic Ivar Heuch, and Gunnar Kvale heart disease? Pharmacoepidemiology Reports Lindsay Edouard On the determination of contraceptive prevalence using health care utilization data Kirsten Rokstad, Jorund Straand, and General practitioners’ drug prescribing practice and diagnoses for Per Fugelli prescribing: The Mgre & Romsdal prescription study Second Thoughts Elaine E. L. Wang, David Scheifele, Pediatric Investigators Collaborative Network on Infections in Barbara J. Law, and Noni E. MacDonald Canada (PICNIC): The politics and positives of a cooperative for the PICNIC Group of Investigators study group Letter to the Editor Jacqueline Fawcett and Lorraine Tulman Status versus ability in function Number 5 Paul DiSilvestro, Jeffrey F. Peipert, Prognostic value of clinical variables in ovarian cancer Joseph W. Hogan, and Cornelius O. Granai L. Frova, R. Capocaccia, S. Giampaoli, and Estimating population-based incidence and prevalence of major A. Verdecchia coronary events Seppo Miilunpalo, Ilkka Vuori, Pekka Oja, Self-rated health status as a health measure: The predictive value Matti Pasanen, and Helka Urponen of self-reported health status on the use of physician services and on mortality in the working-age population A. F. de Bruin, J. P. M. Diederiks, Assessing the responsiveness of a functional status measure: The L. P. de Witte, F. C. J. Stevens, and Sickness Impact Profile versus the SIP68 H. Philipsen Albertine J. Schuit, Evert G. Schouten, Validity of the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE): Klaas R. Westerterp, and Wim H. M. Saris According to energy expenditure assessed by the doubly labeled water method Anne McTiernan, Mary Ann Gilligan, and Assessing individual risk for breast cancer: Risky business Carol Redmond Barbara G. Vickrey, Ron D. Hays, Comparison of a generic to disease-targeted health-related quality- Barbara J. Genovese, Lawrence W. Myers, of-life measures for multiple sclerosis and George W. Ellison Nancy R. Cook, Matthew W. Gillman, Prediction of young adult blood pressure from childhood blood Bernard A. Rosner, James O. Taylor, and pressure, height, and weight Charles H. Hennekens Kenneth Rockwood, Brenda Joyce, and Use of goal attainment scaling in measuring clinically important Paul Stolee change in cognitive rehabilitation patients James W. Davis, Philip D. Ross, Incidence rates of falls among Japanese men and women living in Michael C. Nevitt, and Richard D. Wasnich Hawaii F. Masson, J. Vecsey, L. R. Salmi, Disability and handicap 5 years after a head injury: A population- J. F. Dartigues, Ph. Erny, and P. Maurette based study David J. Ramsey, David C. Goff, Sex and ethnic differences in use of myocardial revascularization Mary L. Wear, Darwin R. Labarthe, and procedures in Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites: The Milton Z. Nichaman Corpus Christi Heart Project Ingemar Persson, Leif Bergkvist, Hormone replacement therapy and major risk factors for reproduc- Christina Lindgren, and Jonathan Yuen tive cancers, osteoporosis, and cardiovascular diseases: Evidence of confounding by exposure characteristics Pharmacoepidemiology Report Hong S. Lau, Anthonius de Boer, Validation of pharmacy records in drug exposure assessment Karin S. Beuning, and Arijan Porsius Second Thoughts Carl C. Seltzer “Conflicts of interest’ and “political science” Letter to the Editors A. D. Tsakok Comment on physical activity Number 6 Commentary Ofer Shpilberg, Janice S. Dorman, The next stage: Molecular epidemiology Robert E. Ferrell, Massimo Trucco, Avner Shahar, and Lewis H. Kuller Variance and Dissent Miguel Delgado-Rodriguez, Ana Almaraz, Presentation: Should the definition for the negative likelihood ratio and Concepcion Farinas-Alvarez be changed? David L. Simel and Donald R. Holleman, Jr. Dissent: Should the definition for the negative likelihood ratio be changed? Miguel Delgado-Rodriguez, Ana Almaraz, Response: RE: Simel and Holleman’s dissent and Concepcion Farinas-Alvarez Original Articles Marilyn A. Winkleby, Henry A. Feldman, Joint analysis of three U.S. community intervention trials for re- and David M. Murray duction of cardiovascular disease risk Edward J. Boyko, Jessie H. Ahroni, Diagnostic utility of the history and physical examination for pe- Denise Davignon, Victoria Stensel, ripheral vascular disease among patients with diabetes mellitus Ronald L. Prigeon, and Douglas G. Smith Eric L. Hurwitz and Hal Morgenstern Correlates of back problems and back-related disability in the United States Heiner C. Bucher, Gordon H. Guyatt, The results of direct and indirect treatment comparisons in meta- Lauren E. Griffith, and Stephen D. Walter analysis of randomized controlled trials Philip Goldwasser and Joseph Feldman Association of serum albumin and mortality risk Penny Perkins, Ju Ruey-Jiuan Lee, Carcinoid tumors of the lung and family history of cancer Bonnie L. Kemp, and James D. Cox Nazeem Muhajarine, Cameron Mustard, Comparison of survey and physician claims data for detecting hy- Leslie L. Roos, T. Kue Young, and pertension Dale E. Gelskey v Aage Tverdal Cohort study of ethnic group and cardiovascular and total mortality over 15 years Craig J. Newschaffer, Trudy L. Bush, and Comorbidity measurement in elderly female breast cancer patients Lynne T. Penberthy with administrative and medical records data Pharmacoepidemiology Report Tjeerd van Staa, Lucien Abenhaim, and Rates of hypoglycemia in users of sulfonylureas Johanne Monette Letters to the Editors Jack V. Tu and C. David Naylor Clinical prediction rules Jan T. M. van der Meer Criteria for classifying endocarditis Ingrid Spijkerman, Erik van de Ameijden, Response and Roel Countinho Erratum Number 7 Variance and Dissent Stephen Senn and Frank Harrell Dissent: On wisdom after the event Ralph I. Horwitz, Burton H. Singer, Response: On reaching the tunnel at the end of the light Robert W. Makuch, and Catherine M. Viscoli Original Articles Theodora P. M. Vliet Viieland, Measurement of morning stiffness in rheumatoid arthritis clinical Aeilko H. Zwinderman, trials Ferdinand C. Breedveld, and Johanna M. W. Hazes Thomas M. Gill, Christianna S. Williams, The role of change in physical performance in determining risk Carlos F. Mendes de Leon, and for dependence in activities of daily living among nondisabled Mary E. Tinetti community-living elderly persons Miguel Delgado-Rodriguez, Comparison of two procedures to estimate the hospital stay attrib- Marcelino Medina-Cuadros, utable to nosocomial infection: Matched cohort study versus anal- Aurora Bueno-Cavanillas, ysis of covariance of the total unmatched cohort Gabriel Martinez-Gallego, Trinidad Dierssen, and Maria Sillero-Arenas L. M. Harms, F. G. Schellevis, Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among hypertensive pa- J. Th. M. van Eijk, A. J. M. Donker, and tients in general practice: The evaluation of long-term systematic L. M. Bouter management Iqbal R. Bata, Brian J. Eastwood, Decreasing mortality from acute myocardial infarctions: Effect of Ronald D. Gregor, Judith R. Guernsey, attack rates and case severity Gerald A. Klassen, B. Ross MacKenzie, and Hermann K. Wolf Carl K. G. M. Moons, Gerrit-Anne van Es, Efficiency optimization of the selection period in therapeutic trials Theo Stijnen, Annette A. A. Bak, Albert Hofman, Jan J. C. Jonker, J. Dik F. Habbema, and Diederick E. Grobbee Michiel L. Bots, Paulus T. V. M. de Jong, Left, right, near or far wall common carotid intima-media thick- Albert Hofman, and Diederick E. Grobbee ness measurements: Associations with cardiovascular disease and lower extremity arterial atherosclerosis Alfredo Morabia, Tom Ten Have, and Interaction fallacy J. Richard Landis Kelly B. Zarnke, Mitchell A. H. Levine, and Cost-benefit analyses in the health-care literature: Don’t judge a Bernie J. O’Brien study by its label Sue M. Marcus Assessing non-consent bias with parallel randomized and nonran- domized clinical trials William E. Cunningham, Hanif M. Rana, Reliability and validity of self-report CD4 counts in persons hospi- Martin F. Shapiro, and Ron D. Hays talized with HIV disease Francois Curtin, Alfredo Morabia, Body mass index compared to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry: Claude Pichard, and Daniel O. Slosman Evidence for a spectrum bias John B. Watson, Kristine Lee, Epidemiological evidence for the disruption of ionized calcium Ronald Klein, Barbara E. K. Klein, and homeostasis in the elderly David D. Koch Dawn P. Misra and John L. Kiely The association between nulliparity and gestational hypertension Pharmacoepidemiology Report Erika M. Ebly, David B. Hogan, and Potential adverse outcomes of psychotropic and narcotic drug use Tak S. Fung in Canadian seniors Letters to the Editors Renzo Rozzini, Piera Barbisoni, Albumin as a predictor of mortality in elderly patients Giovanni B. Frisoni, and Marco Trabucchi Nadine R. Sahyoun, Paul Jacques, Response Gerard Dallal, and Robert Russell Number 8 Original Articles Geoffrey R. Norman, Paul Stratford, and Methodological problems in the retrospective computation of re- Glenn Regehr sponsiveness to change: The lesson of Cronbach G. H. de Bock, F. W. Dekker, J. Stolk, Antimicrobial treatment in acute maxillary sinusitis: A meta- M. P. Springer, J. Kievit, and analysis J. C. van Houwelingen José A. Tapia Granados On the terminology and dimensions of incidence Steven P. Sedlis, Vincent J. Fisher, Racial differences in performance of invasive cardiac procedures David Tice, Rick Esposito, Lori Madmon, in a Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center and Eric H. Steinberg Mario A. Cleves, Nena Sanchez, and Evaluation of two competing methods for calculating Charlson’s Mayumi Draheim comorbidity index when analyzing short-term mortality using ad- ministrative data F. Ong, J. Hermans, E. M. Noordijk, Developing a population-based registry for patients with parapro- W. de Kieviet, P. W. Wijermans, teinemias or multiple myeloma P. J. Seelen, S. Snijder, M. J. Oostindiér, and J. C. Kluin-Nelemans Edward L. Peterson, Christine C. Johnson, Use of urinary cotinine and questionnaires in the evaluation of and Dennis R. Ownby infant exposure to tobacco smoke in epidemiologic studies James R. Hebert, Ira S. Ockene, Development and testing of a seven-day dietary recall Thomas G. Hurley, Rose Luippold, Arnold D. Well, Morton G. Harmatz, and other members of the Dietary Assessment Working Group of the Worcester Area Trial for Counseling in Hyperlipidemia (WATCH) Ann Butler Nattinger, Generalizability of the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results Timothy L. McAuliffe, and registry population: Factors relevant to epidemiologic and health Marilyn M. Schapira care research M. C. de Bruyne, J. A. Kors, A. W. Hoes, Diagnostic interpretation of electrocardiograms in population- D. A. C. M. Kruijssen, J. W. Deckers, based research: Computer program research physicians, or cardiol- M. Grosfeld, G. van Herpen, D. E. Grobbee, ogists? and J. H. van Bemmel Jerry H. Gurwitz, Susan C. Kalish, Thiazide diuretics and the initiation of anti-gout therapy Rhonda L. Bohn, Robert J. Glynn, Mark Monane, Helen Mogun, and Jerry Avorn F. M. Cossa, S. Della Sala, M. Musicco, Comparison of two scoring systems of the mini-mental state exam- H. Spinnler, and M. C. Ubezio ination as a screening test for dementia Lars Lind, Einar Skarfors, Lars Berglund, Serum calcium: A new, independent, prospective risk factor for Hans Lithell, and Sverker Ljunghall myocardial infarction in middle-aged men followed for 18 years Pharmacoepidemiology Report Suzanne L. West, David A. Savitz, Demographics, health behaviors, and past drug use as predictors Gary Koch, Karen L. Sheff, Brian L. Strom, of recall accuracy for previous prescription medication use Harry A. Guess, and Abraham G. Hartzema Number 9 Commentary Richard Horton The unstable medical research paper Original Articles Bjorn O. Eriksen, Ivar S. Kristiansen, Does admission to a medical department improve patient life Erik Nord, Jan Fr. Pape, Sven M. Almdahl, expectancy? Anne Hensrud, Steinar Jeger, Fred A. Miirer, Reidar Robertsen, and Glen Thorsen J. Villar, G. Piaggio, G. Carroli and Factors affecting the comparability of meta-analyses and largest A. Donner trials results in perinatology G. Nijpels, C. Popp-Snijders, P. J. Kostense, Cardiovascular risk factors prior to the development of non- L. M. Bouter, and R. J. Heine insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in persons with impaired glu- cose tolerance: The Hoorn Study Kyoko Imamura, Morag McKinnon, Reliability of a comorbidity measure: The Index of Co-Existent Robert Middleton, and Nick Black Disease (ICED) Monica Topp, Jens Langhoff-Roos, and Validation of a cerebral palsy register Peter Uldall Ben Schmand, Jan Smit, Jaap Lindeboom, Low education is a genuine risk factor for accelerated memory Carolien Smits, Chris Hooijer, Cees Jonker, decline and dementia and Betto Deelman Benjamin Mozes, Esther Shabtai, and Differences in quality of life among patients receiving dialysis David Zucker replacement therapy at seven medical centers C. Cobbaert, P. Mulder, J. Lindemans, and Serum LP(a) levels in African Aboriginal Pygmies and Bantus, H. Kesteloot compared with Caucasian and Asian population samples Anders Foldspang and The International Continence Society (ICS) incontinence defini- Seren Mommsen tion: Is the social and hygienic aspect appropriate for etiologic research? Pharmacoepidemiology Report D. P. Shackleton, R. G. J. Westendorp, Dispensing epilepsy medication: A method of determining the D. G. A. Kasteleijn-Nolst Trenité, frequency of symptomatic individuals with seizures A. de Boer, and R. M. C. Herings Number 10 Original Articles J. P. Mackenbach, A. E. Kunst, 1069 Competing causes of death: A death certificate study H. Lautenbach, Y. B. Oei, and F. Bijlsma Samy Suissa and Pierre Ernst 1079 Optical illusions from visual data analysis: Example of the New Zealand asthma mortality epidemic John P. A. Ioannidis and Joseph Lau 1089 The impact of high-risk patients on the results of clinical trials viii Hermann Brenner, Volker Arndt, Body weight, pre-existing disease, and all-cause mortality in a co- Dietrich Rothenbacher, Stephan Schuberth, hort of male employees in the German construction industry Eckart Fraisse, and Theodor M. Fliedner Kai-Kuen Leung, Li-Yu Tang, and Self-rated health and mortality in Chinese institutional elderly Bee-Horng Lue persons Victoria L. Holt, Diane P. Martin, and Correlates and effect of non-response in a postpartum survey of James P. LoGerfo obstetrical care quality Jean-Francois Etter and Analysis of non-response bias in a mailed health survey Thomas V. Perneger David A. Asch, M. Kathryn Jedrziewski, Response rates to mail surveys published in medical journals and Nicholas A. Christakis Ming Wei, Caroline A. Macera, Changes in lipids associated with change in regular exercise in Carlton A. Hornung, and Steven N. Blair free-living men Eugene Laska, Shang Lin, and Estimating the size of a population from a single sample: Method- Morris Meisner ology and practical issues Todd Q. Miller Statistical methods for describing temporal order in longitudinal research Nobuo Yoshiike, Takeo Nakayama, Quality control for blood pressure measurement in population Tetsuji Yokoyama, Heizo Tanaka, and studies: Shibata Children’s Heart Study Darwin R. Labarthe Norbert Donner-Banzhoff, Yolanda Chan, Low blood pressure associated with low mood: A red herring? John P. Szalai, and John R. Hilditch Second Thoughts Truls Ostbye, Bill Miller, and Throw that epidemiologist out of the emergency room! Using the Heather Keller television series ER as a vehicle for teaching methodologists about medical issues Letters to the Editors Gerry B. Hill 1187 P. C. A. Louis and the birth of clinical epidemiology A. Morabia 1188 Response Number 11 Original Articles Corinne Hodgson How reliable is peer review? An examination of operating grant proposals simultaneously submitted to two similar peer review systems Paul Froom, Jack Froom, and Joseph Ribak 1197 Asymptomatic microscopic hematuria—lIs investigation neces- sary? Petra Buettner, Claus Garbe, and 1201 Problems in defining cutoff points of continuous prognostic fac- Irene Guggenmoos-Holzmann tors: Example of tumor thickness in primary cutaneous melanoma Catherine Chock, Les Irwig, 1211 Comparing dichotomous screening tests when individuals negative Geoffrey Berry, and Paul Glasziou on both tests are not verified Christopher H. Schmid, 1219 A logistic regression model when some events precede treatment: Ralph B. D’ Agostino, John J. Griffith, The effect of thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction Joni R. Beshansky, and Harry P. Selker on the risk of cardiac arrest Linda Rabenek, Pamela M. Hartigan, Predicting outcomes in HIV-infected veterans: I. Progression to Iris W. Huang, Julianne Souchek, and AIDS Nelda P. Wray Linda Rabenek, Pamela M. Hartigan, Predicting outcomes in HIV-infected veterans: II. Survival after Iris W. Huang, Julianne Souchek, and AIDS Nelda P. Wray Sally G. Haskell, Emily D. Richardson, and The effect of estrogen replacement therapy on cognitive function Ralph I. Horwitz in women: A critical review of the literature Mona Baumgarten, Renaldo N. Battista, Use of physician services among family caregivers of elderly per- Claire Infante-Rivard, James A. Hanley, sons with dementia Rubin Becker, Warren B. Bilker, and Serge Gauthier Katherine A. Riester, Peter Peduzzi, Statistical evaluation of the role of Helicobacter pylori in stress Theodore R. Holford, gastritis: Applications of splines and bootstrapping to the logistic Richard T. Ellison III, and Sam T. Donta model Donald A. Redelmeier and Interpretation and bias in case-crossover studies Robert J. Tibshirani Lixin Meng, Gertraud Maskarinec, and Ethnicity and conditional breast cancer survival in Hawaii James Lee Pharmacoepidemiology Report Hortensia Reyes, Hector Guiscafre, Antibiotic noncompliance and waste in upper respiratory infec- Onofre Munoz, Ricardo Perez-Cuevas, tions and acute diarrhea Homero Martinez, and Gonzalo Gutierrez Second Thoughts Joseph Herman A strange addiction Letters to the Editors George Davey Smith and Matthias Egger Quantification and the quest for medical certainty Alvan R. Feinstein Response Paolo Vineis and Alberto Rainoldi Neural networks and logistic regression: Analysis of a case-control study on myocardial infarction Jack V. Tu Response Number 12 Original Articles Gunver S. Kienle and Helmut Kiene The powerful placebo effect: Fact or fiction? Miguel Garcia-Martin, Proportion of hospital deaths associated with adverse events Pablo Lardelli-Claret, Aurora Bueno-Cavanillas, Juan de Dios Luna-del-Castillo, Miguel Espigares-Garcia, and Ramon Galvez-Vargas Margaret Sullivan Pepe, Nicole Urban, Design of a study to improve accuracy in reading mammograms Carolyn Rutter, and Gary Longton Alison E. Field, David B. Herzog, Distinguishing recovery from remission in a cohort of bulimic Martin B. Keller, Jennifer West, women: How should asymptomatic periods be described? Karin Nussbaum, and Graham A. Colditz Carmen Martinez de Pancorbo, Prevalence and associated factors for gallstone disease: Results of Fernando Carballo, Pedro Horcajo, a population survey in Spain Mercedes Aldeguer, Isabel de la Villa, Elva Nieto, Maria J Gaspar, and Julio de la Morena Arthur J Hartz, Clare Guse, and Identification of heavy drinkers using a combination of laboratory André Kajdacsy-Balla tests Anthony J. Orencia, Martha L. Daviglus, One-hour postload plasma glucose and risks of fatal coronary heart Alan R. Dyer, Molly Walsh, disease and stroke among nondiabetic men and women: The Chi- Philip Greenland, and Jeremiah Stamler cago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry (CHA) Study