ISSN = 1980-993X (Online) www.ambi-agua.net Edição 19 da Revista Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 1-290, Agosto 2012. (doi:10.4136/ambi-agua.v7.n2) EDITORIAL BOARD Editor Getulio Teixeira Batista Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas (IPABHi), Brasil Associate Editors Amaury Paulo de Souza Luis A. Bartolucci Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), Florida International University (FIU), EUA Brasil Marcelo dos Santos Targa Antonio Evaldo Klar Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Brasil Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Nelson Wellausen Dias Mesquita Filho, UNESP, Brasil Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Brasil Dar Roberts Paul W. Mausel Universityof Califórnia at Santa Barbara, US Indiana State University (ISU), EUA Hans Raj Gheyi Paulo Renato Schneider Universidade Federal de Campina Grande Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), (UFCG), Brasil Brasil Hélio Nóbile Diniz Sebastião do Amaral Machado Instituto Geológico, Secretaria do Meio Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR), Brasil Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo (IG/SMA), Brasil Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de João Vianei Soares Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Brasil Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Brasil Yosio Edemir Shimabukuro Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Brasil Editorial Section Nelson Wellausen Dias, PPGCA, UNITAU, IBGE, BR Portuguese Text Editor Maria de Jesus Ferreira Aires, GELP, UNITAU, BR Text (EN e ES) Editors Getulio T. Batista, UNITAU & Nelson W. Dias IBGE, BR Reference Editor Liliane Castro, Biblioteca ECA/Civil, UNITAU, BR Layout Editors Vera L. F. Batista, IPABHi & Getulio T. Batista, UNITAU, BR Technical Support Tiago dos Santos Agostinho, LAGEO, UNITAU, BR Library catalog entry by SIBi – Sistema Integrado de Bibliotecas / UNITAU Revista Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science / Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas. Taubaté. v. 7, n. 2 (2006)- Taubaté: IPABHi, 2012. Quadrimestral ISSN 1980-993X. 1. Ciências ambientais. 2. Recursos hídricos. I. Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas. III. Título. CDD - 333.705 CDU - (03)556.18 ÍNDICE CAPA Planta da configuração dos SAC(s) em “bombonas” de PEAD, utilizados na pesquisa (unidades em m). Fonte: MENDONÇA, H. V.; RIBEIRO, C. B. M.; BORGES, A. C.; BASTOS, R. R. Remoção de nitrogênio e fósforo de águas residuárias de laticínios por sistemas alagados construídos operando em bateladas. Ambi- Agua, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 75-87, 2012. (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.805) EDITORIAL Editorial of the nineteenth edition of Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.952) 4 Getulio Teixeira Batista ARTIGOS Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.907) 7-17 Dayana L. dos Santos; Paulo C. Sentelhas Effect of the bentonite application on the cadmium mobility in an Argisol (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.901) 18-29 Gilvanise Alves Tito; Lúcia Helena Garófalo Chaves; Hugo Orlando Carvallo Guerra Antimicrobial resistance profiles of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli strains isolated from bathing waters of the Lajeado reservoir in Tocantins, Brazil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.756) 30-41 Kleverson Wessel de Oliveira; Fátima de Cássia Oliveira Gomes; Guilherme Benko; Raphael Sanzio Pimenta; Paula Prazeres Magalhães; Edilberto Nogueira Mendes; Paula Benevides de Morais Microbiological analysis of drinking water quality of Ananthanar channel of Kanyakumari district, Tamil Nadu, India (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.881) 42-48 Raju Mary Antony; Ferdinand Brisca Renuga Atributos microbianos do solo fertilizado com composto de lodo de esgoto (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.915) Ericléia Büerg Suszek; Paulo Fortes Neto; Nara Lúcia Perondi Fortes; Eliana Maria de Araújo 49-61 Mariano da Silva; Fabiana Brambatti; Claudio Roberto Silva; Dimas Donizeti Patrocinio Desempenho de sistema decanto-digestor com filtro biológico seguido por alagado construído e reator solar no tratamento de esgoto doméstico (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi- agua.723) 62-74 Glícia Pinto Barra Reinaldo; Rafael Oliveira Batista; Paulo Cesar Moura da Silva; Luis Cesar de Aquino Lemos Filho; Miguel Ferreira Neto; Delfran Batista dos Santos Remoção de nitrogênio e fósforo de águas residuárias de laticínios por sistemas alagados construídos operando em bateladas (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.805) Henrique Vieira de Mendonça; Celso Bandeira de Melo Ribeiro; Alisson Carraro Borges; Ronaldo 75-87 Rocha Bastos Variáveis no processo de coagulação /floculação/decantação de lixiviados de aterros sanitários urbanos (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.861) Victor Fernandes Bezerra Mello; Juliana Prazeres da Gama Abreu; Joelma Morais Ferreira; José 88-100 Fernando Thomé Jucá; Maurício A. da Motta Sobrinho Influência da temperatura na remoção de fosfato por microalgas em biorreatores heterotróficos (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.856) Juliana Guerra Vieira; Eduardo Jacob-Lopes; Adriana Gonçalves da Silva Manetti; Maria Isabel 101-109 Queiroz Avaliação da poluição doméstica fluvial na zona urbana do município de Piracicaba, SP, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.846) 110-119 Jefferson Mortatti; Diego Vendramini; Helder de Oliveira Urbanização e escoamento superficial na bacia hidrográfica do Igarapé Tucunduba, Belém, PA, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.905) Marcelo dos Santos Targa; Getulio Teixeira Batista; Hélio Nóbile Diniz Nelson Wellausen Dias; 120-142 Fernando Cardoso de Matos Caracterização hidrogeológica e hidroquímica do aquífero livre localizado no manto de alteração da Formação Serra Geral, na bacia hidrográfica Taquari-Antas, região nordeste do estado do Rio Grande do Sul (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.903) 143-162 Pedro Antonio Roehe Reginato; Siclério Ahlert; Karoline Chiaradia Gilioli; Gisele Cemin Modelagem do fluxo de contaminantes em aquífero freático na área do cemitério Bom Jardim, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.917) Mauro César de Brito Sousa Marco Aurélio Holanda de Castro; David Lopes de Castro; Mariano 163-178 da Franca Alencar Neto; Bruno Leonardy Sousa Lopes Interpolação geoespacial da evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) em regiões com escassez de dados: estudo de caso no Sul de Minas Gerais, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi- agua.763) 179-194 Mateus Ricardo Nogueira Vilanova; Silvio J. C. Simões; Isabel C. B. Trannin Modelagem para integração de dados sobre macrobentos em Infraestrutura de Dados Espaciais (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.774) 195-213 Gabriel Niero de Carvalho; Mariana Abrantes Giannotti; Silvia Sartor; José Alberto Quintanilha Ictiofauna de igarapés de pequenas bacias de drenagem em área agrícola do Nordeste Paraense, Amazônia Oriental (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.739) 214-230 Jean Michel Corrêa; Pedro Gerhard; Ricardo de Oliveira Figueiredo Adequação e avaliação da aplicabilidade de um Protocolo de Avaliação Rápida na bacia do rio Gualaxo do Norte, Leste-Sudeste do Quadrilátero Ferrífero, MG, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.872) 231-244 Aline Sueli de Lima Rodrigues; Guilherme Malafaia; Adivane Terezinha Costa; Hermínio Arias Nalini Júnior Qualidade da água de uma represa localizada em área agrícola (Campo Verde, MT, Brasil) (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.904) Carolina Hortêncio Malheiros; Edna Lopes Hardoim; Zoraidy Marques de Lima; Ricardo Santos 245-262 Silva Amorim Pantanal de Cáceres: composição granulométrica dos sedimentos de fundo no rio Paraguai entre a foz do rio Cabaçal e a cidade de Cáceres, Mato Grosso, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.876) 263-276 Gustavo Roberto dos Santos Leandro, Célia Alves de Souza Vulnerabilidade natural e ambiental do município de Ponta Porã, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.786) 277-290 Thalita Beatriz Antunes Klais; Fabrício Bau Dalmas; Renata Porto Morais; Gabriela Atique; Giancarlo Lastoria; Antonio Conceição Paranhos Filho ISSN = 1980-993X – doi:10.4136/1980-993X www.agro.unitau.br/ambi-agua E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +55 (12) 3625-4212 Editorial of the nineteenth edition of Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.952) Getulio Teixeira Batista Professor of the Master Degree Program in Environmental Sciences of the University of Taubaté e-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT We are publishing the nineteenth edition since the first issue published in August, 2006. Since then, all issues were published on time as schedule in December 31, April 30 and August 31 of every year. Hopefully, this encourages potential authors to submit their manuscripts to our journal. This 19th edition contains 20 articles that were peer reviewed and selected for publication among 126 submitted in this period. The last three issues had also 20 articles published. These numbers meet one of the SciELO’s criteria to consider the indexation of a journal. We continue to practice the complete open access policy and fostering the visibility, securing data storage, and working to increase the scientific impact of the journal. Keywords: Ambi-Agua, environment, water resources, Google Analytics, Redalyc, Sumários.org. Editorial da décima nona edição da revista Ambiente & Água – An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science RESUMO Estamos publicando a décima nona edição desde a primeira edição publicada em agosto de 2006. Desde então, todos os números foram publicados em dia conforme a programação: 31 de dezembro, 30 de abril e 31 de agosto de cada ano. Esperamos que esse fato encoraje potenciais autores submeterem seus trabalhos à nossa revista. Esta 19 ª edição contém 20 artigos que foram revisados e selecionados para publicação entre 126 submetidos neste período. As últimas três edições também tiveram 20 artigos publicados. Esses números satisfazem um dos critérios da SciELO para uma revista ser considerada para indexação. Continuamos a praticar a política de acesso aberto completo e a promover a visibilidade, garantir diversos meios de armazenamento dos artigos publicados, e a trabalhar para aumentar o impacto científico da revista. Palavras-chave: Ambi-Agua; meio ambiente; recursos hídricos, Google Analytics, Redalyc, Sumários.org. 1. INTRODUCTION We continue to monitor the access and download of articles. Figure 1 shows the number of visits that the journal site had this year of 2012 up to August 18. One can observe that the accesses are pretty much constant, except just after an issue publication as can been seen in Revista Ambiente & Água – An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science: v. 6, n. 3, 2011. BATISTA, G. T. Editorial of the nineteenth edition of Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science. Ambi-Agua, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 4-6, 2012. (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.952) May and that they decrease during weekends. It is worth mentioning that we had access every single day and that the site was up during the entire period. s sit vi y ail d of N. Figure 1. A total of 6,381 people visited Ambiente & Agua Journal site from January 1st, 2012 to August 18th, 2012, completing 10,927 visits in this period and 74.6% of these visits have come from Brazil, 3.2% from Mexico, 2.4% from USA, 2.4% from India, and 1.2% from the United Kingdom, the remaining 16.2% from 112 other countries. Source: Google Analytics (2012). <https://www.google.com/analytics>. Access August 18, 2012. To guarantee data preservation, in addition to register the doiTM of all published articles, we made agreements with several other data basis to capture metadata and to store articles’ full texts. In this issue, we show that Ambiente & Agua articles are also stored in Redalyc and Sumários.org server (Figures 2 and 3) and they can be downloaded directly from their data basis. Note that since Redalyc began to support Ambiente & Agua Journal the number of downloads increased with a decrease in 2011. This drop coincided with the Natural and Social Sciences decrease in the number of downloads for that period. Figure 2. Page extracted from the Redalyc site that shows the number of yearly downloads of articles from their server. Source: Red de Revistas Científicas de América Latina y el Caribe, España y Portugal Sistema de Información Científica (Redalyc). http://redalyc.uaemex.mx/src/inicio/HomRevRed.jsp?iCveEntRev=928. Acess August 20th, 2012). 5 BATISTA, G. T. Editorial of the nineteenth edition of Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science. Ambi-Agua, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 4-6, 2012. (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.952) Figure 3 shows that all volumes and issues can also be accessed from the Sumários.org site. Figure 3. Page extracted from Sumários.org site the published issues of Ambiente & Agua that can be downloaded directly from their server. Source: Sumários de Revistas Brasileiras (Sumários.org): http://sumarios.org/revistas/revista-ambiente-e- %C3%A1gua-interdisciplinary-journal-applied-science. Acess August 20, 2012). 2. FINAL REMARKS Ambi-Agua welcomes good quality submissions that effectively increases the scientific knowledge in the great interdisciplinary scientific thematic area related to Environmental Sciences and Water Resources. Thematic areas include Hydrology, Hydrogeology, Environmental and Sanitation Engineering, Forest Engineering and Forest Resources, Ecology, Aqüiculture, Oceanology and Fishing Resources, Agronomy, Agrometeorology and Agricultural Engineering, Global Change, Fishing Engineering, Environmental Zootechny, Geography and Geology, as well as Remote Sensing, Geoinformation, and Spatial Analysis However, these broad areas have to focus on water or environmental sciences issues for the submission be considered. Ambi-Agua continues with the complete Open Access Policy: no fee to publish and no fee to access articles and is committed to register doiTM for all published articles. 6 ISSN = 1980-993X – doi:10.4136/1980-993X www.ambi-agua.net E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (12) 3625-4212 Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.907) Dayana L. dos Santos1; Paulo C. Sentelhas2 1Agricultural Systems Engineering Graduate Program, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. e-mail: [email protected], 2Biosystems Engineering Department, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil.e-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT The evidence of climate changes has increased the demand for biofuel such as the ethanol from sugarcane, which has major comparative advantages in economic and environmental terms in relation to other biofuel sources. The sugarcane production in the State of São Paulo is highly influenced by the soil water availability, which is the main factor causing inter-annual yield variability. With the expected climate change, the crop water balance in the sugarcane production regions may be affected, which will also bring consequences for crop production. Based on that, the objective of this study was to assess the impacts of different climate changes scenarios on potential (ETP) and actual (ETA) evapotranspiration, as well as on water deficit (WD) and water surplus (WS) for four sugarcane production regions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. For that, twelve climate changes scenarios, with increasing temperatures and rainfall variation, were considered for the years of 2030, 2060 and 2090, based on 2007 IPCC´s report. The results indicated that ETP will increase substantially as a function of higher air temperatures projected for the future scenarios. However, for ETA the elevation will not be so intense due to the variations projected for the rainfall scenarios. In general, the expectation is the reduction of the soil water availability in all locations by 2090, with substantial increase in the WD, around 550, 650, 530 e 720 mm for the worst scenario in relation to the present conditions, respectively for Araçatuba, Assis, Jaboticabal and Piracicaba. Keywords: Global warming, climatological water balance, evapotranspiration, water deficit. Cenários de Mudanças Climáticas e seus Impactos no Balanço Hídrico de Regiões Canavieiras do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil RESUMO Os indícios de mudanças climáticas tem elevado a demanda por álcool proveniente da cana-de-açúcar que apresenta grandes vantagens comparativas em termos econômicos e ambientais em relação a outros biocombustíveis. A produção da cana-de-açúcar no Estado de São Paulo é altamente influenciada pela disponibilidade de água no solo, sendo este o principal fator responsável pela variabilidade interanual da sua produtividade. Sendo assim, as mudanças climáticas deverão impactar o balanço hídrico das regiões produtoras e, consequentemente, a produção da cana-de-açúcar. Desse modo, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar os impactos dos cenários projetados de mudanças climáticas na evapotranspiração potencial (ETP) e real (ETA), no déficit hídrico (WD) e no excedente hídrico (WS) de quatro Revista Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science: v. 7, n.2, 2012. SANTOS, D. L.; SENTELHAS, P. C. Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on the Water Balance of Sugarcane Production Areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Ambi-Agua, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 7-17, 2012. (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.907) regiões produtoras de cana-de-açúcar no Estado de São Paulo. Para tanto, foram considerados doze cenários de mudanças climáticas para os anos de 2030, 2060 e 2090, baseados no relatório do IPCC de 2007. Os resultados indicam aumentos acentuados da ETP em função do aumento da temperatura do ar nos diferentes cenários. No entanto, para a ETA esses aumentos não serão tão acentuados devido à variação no regime hídrico. Espera-se uma redução na disponibilidade hídrica em todas as localidades para o ano de 2090, com aumento significativo do WD, da ordem de 550, 650, 530 e 720 mm para o pior cenário em relação à condição atual, respectivamente para Araçatuba, Assis, Jaboticabal e Piracicaba. Palavras-chave: Aquecimento global, balanço hídrico climatológico, evapotranspiração, deficiência hídrica. 1. INTRODUCTION The projections of global climate change promoted by the anthropic action, having as consequence the increasing greenhouse effect, is becoming more and more accepted by the scientific and agricultural communities around the world (Marengo, 2008). As a consequence of that, there is an special concern by creating new sources of renewable energy which has increasing the demand by biofuels, including the sugarcane ethanol, which has several advantages in relation to other sources. In this context, Brazil has a competitive advantage in relation to other countries, since it is the most traditional sugarcane producer in the world, with more than 8 million of hectares planted and a production of 571.5 million of tons during the 2011/12 growing season, with 287.6 million of tons for producing 22.9 billion liters of ethanol (CONAB, 2011). The state of São Paulo is the main sugarcane producer in the country, counting with more than 200 mills. In this state, the sugarcane is produced in different environments with diverse climatic conditions which affect the cane yield (Teramoto, 2003), as well as all the activities related to the production, transport and storage (Pereira et al., 2002). In the state of São Paulo, the rainfall inter-annual variability is the main cause of sugarcane yield fluctuation, since it affects the soil water balance and, consequently, the water availability for plants. So, any change in the water balance variables, mainly rainfall and/or evapotranspiration, will promote changes in the plant water consumption. Based on the results of Marks et al. (1993), Medeiros (2003) and Villani et al. (2011), an increase in air temperature will lead to a higher evapotranspiration which in a non-changing rainfall regime or in a scenario of less rainfall will promote an increase in the water deficit for plants and, as consequence, a decrease in crop yield by a reduced evapotranspiration. Also, any change in the rainfall regime, with an increase or a decrease in the precipitation amount will result in changes in the water balance (Horikoshi and Fisch, 2007), with positive or negative impacts on agriculture. Results from the study carried out by Liberato and Brito (2010) showed that the climate changes projected for Occidental Amazon will result in a drier climate, with reduction in the soil water availability. In agriculture, such reduction associated with temperature changes will affect plant phenology, crops geographic distribution (crop zoning) and crop yield (Crimmins et al., 2011; Li et al., 2011; Pérez and Sierra, 2012). As agriculture is among the economic activities the most vulnerable to climatic conditions, the climate change will have a strong impact on crop zoning, yield, and quality. Based on that, the assessment of the factors of environmental vulnerability for sugarcane production is of high importance, mainly considering that this crop is the most efficient for sugar and ethanol production (Zullo Jr. et al., 2008). So, the objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of different climate change scenarios on the water balance of four sugarcane production regions in the state of São Paulo, in order to subsidize the strategies to 8 SANTOS, D. L.; SENTELHAS, P. C. Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on the Water Balance of Sugarcane Production Areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Ambi-Agua, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 7-17, 2012. (http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.907) be adopted by the authorities, growers and sugar mills to face the challenges of sugarcane production in the future climatic conditions. 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS The present study was developed for four sugarcane regions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, named: Araçatuba (lat.: 20º52’ S, long.: 48º29’ W; alt.: 415 masl); Assis (lat.: 22º38’ S, long.: 50º24’ W, alt.: 560 masl); Jaboticabal (lat.: 21º15’ S; long.: 48º19’ W; alt.: 595 masl) and Piracicaba (lat.: 22º42’ S; long.: 47º38’ W; alt.: 546 masl). The weather data of the locations listed above were obtained from different sources. Ten- day period data of air temperature were estimated with multiple linear models proposed by Pedro Jr. et al. (1991), based on the normal data from the Brazilian Meteorological Service (INMET) and Agronomic Institute of Campinas (IAC), as a function of latitude, longitude and altitude. The daily average sunshine hours data for each 10-day period were also estimated by multiple linear models, as proposed by Monteiro (2012). Sunshine hours were used to estimate global solar radiation (Rg) by the Angstron-Prescott´s method (Pereira et al., 2002). The daily rainfall data of a 30-year period, from 1979 to 2008, was obtained from the Brazilian Water Agency (ANA), for each location, and transformed in the same 10-day time scale. For the description of the present conditions, the monthly climate data was considered, whereas for the comparisons among the present and future scenarios the annual time scale was analyzed. Twelve future scenarios were created for the years of 2030, 2060 and 2090 by combining changes in temperature and rainfall for the four regions. A combination of the three A1 scenarios was used (IPCC, 2007). These scenarios (A1T, A1B and A1Fl) were adopted because they present a full range of variations for air temperature, from 1.4 to 6.4oC. Based on that, the actual temperature data base was increased by 2, 4 and 6oC. For rainfall, as the projections for the state of São Paulo have a great uncertainty associated to, the future scenarios were based on the percentages in relation to the present scenario (-10, -5, +5 and +10 %) suggested by the 2007 IPCC´s report for all this region of Brazil. The changes for rainfall were applied for each rainfall event of the 30-year series in order to evaluate the inter- annual variability of this variable as well as of water balance variables. Table 1 presents all the combinations of the proposed future scenarios, having as reference the average data from 1979 to 2008, mentioned as scenario C0, which refers to the normal data obtained in the end of 2008. Air temperature data, from C0 to C12 scenarios, were used to estimate potential evapotranspiration (ETP) considering the method of Thornthwaite (1948) adjusted by Camargo et al. (1999). Such method uses the effective temperature (Tef) which is calculated as a function of daily extreme temperatures. This ETP method was chosen among several others for using only air temperature and photoperiod as variables, and for presenting accurate estimates for the state of São Paulo, as presented by Camargo et al. (1999). ETP, rainfall and soil water holding capacity (SWHC) for each location and scenario were used for estimating the 10-day serial water balance by the method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955), which was programmed in an Excel spreadsheet by Rolim et al. (1998). The outputs of the water balance are: soil water content; actual evapotranspiration (ETA); water deficit (WD); and water surplus (WS). The water balance simulations were conducted annually for the actual 30-year database and considering this data with the possible changes presented by the 2007 IPCC´s report. The SWHC for each location was estimated according to the predominant soil in the region, since the water retention by the soils is a function of their physical characteristics (Prado et al., 9