Springer Geophysics Ljiljana R. Cander Ionospheric Space Weather Springer Geophysics TheSpringerGeophysicsseriesseekstopublishabroadportfolioofscientificbooks, aiming at researchers, students, and everyone interested in geophysics. The series includes peer-reviewed monographs, edited volumes, textbooks, and conference proceedings.Itcoverstheentireresearchareaincluding,butnotlimitedto,applied geophysics, computational geophysics, electrical and electromagnetic geophysics, geodesy, geodynamics, geomagnetism, gravity, lithosphere research, paleomag- netism,planetology,tectonophysics,thermalgeophysics,andseismology. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10173 Ljiljana R. Cander Ionospheric Space Weather 123 Ljiljana R. Cander RALSpace,Science andTechnology Facilities Council (STFC) Rutherford AppletonLaboratory (RAL) Didcot, Oxfordshire UK ISSN 2364-9127 ISSN 2364-9119 (electronic) SpringerGeophysics ISBN978-3-319-99330-0 ISBN978-3-319-99331-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99331-7 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018953289 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2019 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland This book is dedicated to the memory of my precious mentors and dear friends, Professors Pietro Dominici and Peter Antony Bradley. Ljiljana R. Cander Acknowledgments and Data Sources It has been a great privilege to be Visiting Scientist at the STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, and a special pleasure to be given the opportunity to write this volume during my time with RAL Space. I acknowledge with gratitude the influenceandgeneroussupportofProf. MichaelA.Hapgood,theinitial interest in thisworkandmanyyearsoffruitfulcollaborationwithDr.BrunoZolesi,aswellas helpful discussions and/or contributions from Dr. Ruth A. Bamford, Dr. Luigi Ciraolo, Prof. Haris Haralambous, and Dr. Michael Pezzopane. I am very grateful to Mr Gavin Taylor for his help revising the final text. I wish to express my sincere appreciation to my Publishing Editor, Dr. Annett Buettner, and associated staff, for their assistance in the production of this book. Particularthanksaredueto:theWorldDataCenterSILSO,RoyalObservatoryof Belgium,Brusselsforsunspotdata(http://sidc.oma.be/silso);theSpaceWorldData CentreforSolarTerrestrialPhysics(STP)atSTFCRutherfordAppletonLaboratory foroperationoftheionosondeatChiltonanddataaccessvia(http://www.ralspace. stfc.ac.uk/RALSpace/); the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam of GFZ, the German ResearchCentreforGeosciencesfortheproductionofKpandApdata(http://www. gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/); the British Geological Survey, Edinburgh for geo- magnetic data (http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/data/home.html); the WDCforGeomagnetism,KyotofortheproductionofAEindices(http://wdc.kugi. kyoto-u.ac.jp/aedir/);thegeomagneticobservatories(Kakioka[JMA],Honoluluand San Juan [USGS], Hermanus [RSA], INTERMAGNET, and many others for their cooperation establishing the final Dst indices (http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstae/ index.html), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for pro- viding IGS TEC maps (ftp://cddis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gnss/products/ionex/), sunspot numbers and F10.7 solar flux data (ftp://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/data/omni/), the NASA CDDIS archive for GPS data from the International GNNS service (https:// cddis.nasa.gov/), and the NASA images (http://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/ features/MP_Photo_Guidelines.html); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric vii viii AcknowledgmentsandDataSources Administration (NOAA) for providing eclipse images (http://www.noaa.gov/); the University of Bern for global ionosphere maps produced by CODE (http://www. unibe.ch/); as well as the International GNSS Service (IGS) for providing GNSS open-dataandionosphericopen-products (http://www.igs.org/). Contents 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2 Layout of the Book. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2 Solar-Terrestrial Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.1 The Interaction of the Earth’s Magnetosphere with the Sun. . . . 13 2.2 Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.3 Ionosphere-Atmosphere Coupling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3 Space Weather Causes and Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.1 Main Space Weather Causes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3.2 Main Space Weather Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3.3 Space Weather and the Earth’s Ionosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 4 Ionospheric Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 4.1 Climatology of the Earth’s Ionosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.2 D Region and E Region Disturbances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4.3 F Region Disturbances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 4.4 Ionospheric Noise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.4.1 F Region and Topside Ionosphere Under Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 4.4.2 Sudden Increases During Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 4.5 Sudden TEC Decreases During Solar Eclipse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 5 Ionospheric Storm Morphology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 5.1 Solar Cycle Morphology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 ix x Contents 5.2 Seasonal Morphology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 5.3 Daily Morphology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 5.4 Minor Storm Morphology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 5.5 The Origin of Storm Morphology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 6 Ionospheric Space Weather Forecasting and Modelling . . . . . . . . . 135 6.1 Statistical Forecasting with the STIF Tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 6.2 Statistical Forecasting by Trend Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 6.3 Dynamic Forecasting by Artificial Neural Networks . . . . . . . . . 156 6.4 Ionospheric Space Weather Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 7 Ionospheric Irregularities and Waves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 7.1 Ionospheric Irregularities and Atmospheric Waves . . . . . . . . . . 180 7.2 Large-Scale Irregularities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 7.3 Medium-Scale Irregularities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 7.4 Observational and Modelling Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 8 Ionosphere Space Weather and Radio Propagation . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 8.1 Ionospheric Space Weather and RF Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 8.2 Ionospheric Space Weather and GNSS Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 8.3 Ionospheric Space Weather Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 8.4 Operational Tools, Products, and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 8.4.1 Ionospheric Maps Using Ionosondes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 8.4.2 Ionospheric Maps Using GNSS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 9 Ionospheric Space Weather Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 9.1 Ionospheric Space Weather: Mitigation Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246 9.2 Ionospheric Space Weather: Environmental Perspective. . . . . . . 252 9.3 Ionospheric Space Weather: Other Sun or Stellar Planets and Their Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 10 Ionospheric Weather in Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 10.1 September 2017 Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 10.2 The Latest Developments—Nearing the End of Solar Cycle 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 References and Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Glossary of Acronyms and Abbreviations.... .... .... .... ..... .... 283 Bibliography .. .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 287 About the Author .. .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 289 Index .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 291