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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Intratheater Airlift Functional Needs Analysis (FNA) John Stillion, David T. Orletsky, Anthony D. Rosello Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Stillion, John. Intratheater airlift functional needs analysis (FNA) / John Stillion, David T. Orletsky, Anthony D. Rosello. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4755-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Airlift, Military—United States—Planning. 2. Transportation, Military— United States. 3. United States. Air Force—Transportation. I. Orletsky, David T., 1963– II. Rosello, Anthony D. III. Title. UC333.S75 2011 358.4'4—dc22 2009028672 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This functional needs analysis (FNA) for U.S. Air Force (USAF) intra- theater airlift is the second in a series of three documents that together comprise a capabilities-based assessment (CBA) required as part of the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS). The first document in the series, the functional area analysis (FAA) identi- fied the operational tasks, conditions, and standards needed to achieve military objectives—in this case, certain intratheater airlift missions.1 The second, this FNA, assesses the ability of the current assets to deliver the capabilities identified in the FAA. The third and final document in this series, the functional solution analysis (FSA), is forthcoming.2 The FSA will provide an operationally based assessment of approaches to address the capability gaps identified in the FNA. The research described in this monograph was sponsored by Maj Gen Thomas P. Kane, Director, Plans and Programs, Headquarters, Air Mobility Command, Scott Air Force Base, Illinois. The work was performed within the Force Modernization and Employment pro- gram of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2006 study, “Improving Air-Ground Integration, Interoperability, and Interdependence.” 1 David T. Orletsky, Anthony D. Rosello, and John Stillion, Intratheater Airlift Functional Area Analysis (FAA), Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-685-AF, 2011. 2 David T. Orletsky, Daniel M. Norton, Anthony D. Rosello, William Stanley, Michael Kennedy, Michael Boito, Brian G. Chow, and Yool Kim, Intratheater Airlift Functional Solu- tion Analysis (FSA), Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-818-AF, 2011. iii iv Intratheater Airlift Functional Needs Analysis RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction, Purpose, and Scope ............................................. 1 CHAPTER TWO Platform Capability Needs and Conditions ................................. 5 Introduction ........................................................................ 5 Intratheater Airlift Tasks ........................................................ 5 Conditions ........................................................................ 6 CHAPTER THREE Aggregate Intratheater Airlift Needs and Current Capabilities ......... 9 Current U.S. Air Force Intratheater Lift Capabilities and Limitations .....10 Current and Projected USAF C-130 Intratheater Airlift Fleet ............10 Center Wing Box Restrictions and Groundings ............................10 Implications ........................................................................14 CHAPTER FOUR Factors That Could Increase Intratheater Airlift Demand ...............15 Introduction .......................................................................15 Emerging Needs.................................................................15 v vi Intratheater Airlift Functional Needs Analysis Analysis of Emerging Intratheater Airlift Demand .........................17 Analytical Methodology .......................................................19 Missions ........................................................................... 20 Routine Sustainment .......................................................... 20 Time-Sensitive, Mission-Critical Resupply ................................. 20 Maneuver ........................................................................21 Modeling Routine Sustainment and Time-Sensitive, Mission-Critical Resupply ............................................... 22 Vignettes .......................................................................... 26 Overview ........................................................................ 27 Future Army Operational Maneuver Concept of Operations and the Intratheater Airlift System ..................................... 27 Afghanistan Vignette ...........................................................31 Indonesia Vignette ............................................................. 36 Methodology for Computing C-130 and CH-47 Performance .............41 The C-130H .....................................................................41 The CH-47D ................................................................... 42 Intratheater Airlift Fleet Sizes .................................................. 43 CHAPTER FIVE Analysis Results ..................................................................45 Routine Sustainment ............................................................ 46 Volume and Number of Aircraft Required ................................. 46 Potential Capability Gaps ......................................................55 Time-Sensitive, Mission-Critical Resupply ................................... 56 Volume and Number of Aircraft Required ................................. 56 Timeliness .......................................................................57 CHAPTER SIX Conclusions .......................................................................61 APPENDIX Methodology for Determining Required Daily Sustainment ...........63 Bibliography ......................................................................79 Figures 3.1. Projected C-130 Fleet ...............................................13 4.1. Afghanistan Vignette Airfield Map ............................... 34 4.2. Indonesia Vignette Airfield Map ...................................37 5.1. C-130 Aircraft Required for the Afghanistan Light Force Mix ......................................................51 5.2. C-130 Aircraft Required for the Afghanistan Heavy Force Mix ....................................................51 5.3. C-130 Aircraft Required for the Indonesia Light Force Mix ......................................................52 5.4. C-130 Aircraft Required for the Indonesia Heavy Force Mix ....................................................52 5.5. CH-47 Aircraft Required for the Indonesia Heavy Force Mix ....................................................53 vii