Technology options for feeding 10 billion people Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture Study Science and Technology Options Assessment Technology options for feeding 10 billion people Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture Study IP/A/STOA/FWC/2008-096/Lot3/C1/SC5 -SC9 September 2013 PE 513.514 STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment The STOA project 'Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Interactions between climate change & agriculture and biodiversity & agriculture' was carried out by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) in collaboration with BIO Intelligence Service, Ecologic Institute and the Institute for Environmental Studies VU University. AUTHORS Underwood, E.; Poláková, J.; Kretschmer, B.; McConville, A.J.; Tucker, G.M. - IEEP Dooley, E.; Frelih-Larsen, A; Naumann, S. -Ecologic Institute Berman, S.; Sarteel, M.; Tostivint, C. -BIO Intelligence Service van der Grijp, N.M. -Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Maxted, N. -School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham STOA RESEARCH ADMINISTRATOR Lieve Van Woensel Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value DG Internal Policies, European Parliament Rue Wiertz 60 -RMD 00J012 B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSION Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER To contact STOA please write to [email protected] This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/stoa/ Manuscript completed in July 2013. Brussels, © European Union, 2013. DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. ISBN BA-03-13-491-EN-C DOI 10.2861/33183 CAT 978-92-823-4735-5 Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture Abstract There will be rising global demand for food and energy from the land over the coming decades resulting from population growth and economic development. This will coincide with the need to adapt agriculture to increasing climate-related threats (which will probably outweigh opportunities in Europe), whilst decreasing the impact of agricultural emissions on climate change. At the same time, biodiversity losses due to intensive agricultural practices and abandonment of biodiversity-rich farming are expected to continue. The long- term sustainability of farming is being undermined by trends such as soil degradation, declines in pollinators, the loss of natural biological control of pests and diseases, and the loss of plant and animal genetic diversity. Substantial changes in agricultural systems are required in Europe to ensure rapid reductions in agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as effective adaptation to climate change and strengthened biodiversity conservation. This report describes a range of practices and developments in agriculture that could sustainably increase agricultural productivity whilst contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and providing biodiversity benefits. Policy could play a larger role in supporting innovation and development in the full range of agricultural systems in Europe and in the use of certain wastes and residues for energy purposes. The report provides a set of recommended options for incentivising beneficial actions, constraining unsustainable practices, and promoting innovative options whilst ensuring environmental safeguards for new technologies that might have unwanted negative impacts on biodiversity. STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment Recommended citation: Underwood, E.1; Poláková, J.1; Berman, S.3; Dooley,E.2; Frelih-Larsen, A.2; Kretschmer, B.1; Maxted, N.5; McConville, A.J.1; Naumann, S.2; Sarteel, M.3; Tostivint, C.3; Tucker, G.M.1; van der Grijp, N.M.4 (2013) Technology options for feeding 10 billion people. Climate change and agriculture; biodiversity and agriculture. Report prepared for the STOA Panel of the European Parliament. Contract IP/A/STOA/FWC/2008- 096/LOT3/C1/SC5. Institute for European Environmental Policy, BIO Intelligence Service, Ecologic Institute, IVM, Brussels/London 1 Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), 2 Ecologic Institute, 3 BIO Intelligence Service, 4 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, 5 School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham Acknowledgements: Harry Aiking and Thijs Etty at IVM for their reviews Shailendra Mudgal at BIO for his review and contributions David Baldock, Kaley Hart, Allan Buckwell, Ben Allen, Henrietta Menadue and Sara Green at IEEP for their reviews and contributions Geoffrey Radley (independent consultant) and Les Firbank (University of Leeds) for their reviews and contributions The Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) is an independent not-for-profit institute. IEEP undertakes work for external sponsors in a range of policy areas. We also have our own research programmes and produce the Manual of European Environmental Policy (http://www.europeanenvironmentalpolicy.eu). For further information about IEEP, see our website at http://www.ieep.eu or contact any staff member. London Office 15 Queen Anne's Gate London, SW1H 9BU Tel: +44 (0) 20 7799 2244 Brussels Office Quai au Foin, 55 Hooikaai 55 B-1000 Brussels Tel: +32 (0) 2738 7482 Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS........................................................................................................................................3 GLOSSARY..........................................................................................................................................5 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................18 A. Objectives of the study........................................................................................................18 B. Setting the context: future demands on agricultural land – trends and drivers ........19 PART 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE...............................................................22 1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE.........................................23 1.1 Changes in crop growth and agricultural productivity.................................................23 1.2 Changes in water availability ............................................................................................24 1.3 Changes in flooding ............................................................................................................26 1.4 Changes in soil characteristics ...........................................................................................27 1.5 Pest/pathogen risk..............................................................................................................27 1.6 Fire risk .................................................................................................................................28 1.7 Energy supply ......................................................................................................................29 2 IMPACTS OF EU AGRICULTURE ON CLIMATE ............................................................30 2.1 Greenhouses gases and their sources and trends ...........................................................31 2.2 Sequestration in soils and vegetation ...............................................................................33 2.3 Mitigation potential of EU agriculture .............................................................................35 2.4 Other aspects of the European food chain .......................................................................35 3 MANAGEMENT ACTIONS FOR MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION IN EU AGRICULTURE AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO INCREASED FOOD PRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................37 3.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................37 3.2 Key management actions for climate change mitigation and adaptation and their relationships to increased food production................................................................................39 3.3 Productivity issues ..............................................................................................................50 3.4 Costs......................................................................................................................................51 3.5 Enabling mechanisms and policy measures....................................................................52 4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE: RECOMMENDED OPTIONS ..............56 PART 2: BIODIVERSITY AND AGRICULTURE ......................................................................60 5 THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ON BIODIVERSITY AND OF BIODIVERSITY ON AGRICULTURE IN THE EU....................................................................61 5.1 Biodiversity in EU agricultural ecosystems.....................................................................61 5.2 Abandonment of agricultural management on semi-natural habitats in the EU.......65 5.3 The impacts of farming practices on biodiversity in Europe ........................................65 5.4 Impacts of agricultural practices on biodiversity outside agriculture in the EU .......71 5.5 The impacts of agricultural production on biodiversity outside the EU.....................72 5.6 Why biodiversity losses in agricultural systems matter ................................................72 1 STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment 5.7 Maintaining and increasing biodiversity in agricultural systems to 2050...................77 5.8 What is needed to maintain and increase biodiversity in agricultural systems? .......80 6 CULTIVATION OF GM CROPS IN THE EU: WHAT IMPACTS ON BIODIVERSITY?...............................................................................................................................85 6.1 Genetically Modified Organisms ......................................................................................85 6.2 GM crops grown in the EU or that could be grown in the EU in the coming decades . ................................................................................................................................................86 6.3 How GM breeding differs from conventionally bred plants and animals..................87 6.4 Possible impacts of GM crops on biodiversity and current evidence for effects........88 6.5 What is the evidence for effects of GM crops on biodiversity in Europe? ..................98 7 IMPACTS OF BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS ON BIODIVERSITY......................................100 7.1 Biofuel technologies ..........................................................................................................100 7.2 Current production and projections of future biofuel consumption .........................101 7.3 Biodiversity impacts of current and projected biofuel consumption.........................106 7.4 Competition for agricultural land and influence on food prices................................108 7.5 Effectiveness of biodiversity and social sustainability criteria in the EU RED.........109 7.6 What are the consequences of biofuel feedstocks for biodiversity?...........................111 8 CONSERVATION OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN THE EU ........................................................................................................112 8.1 Plant genetic resources for food and agriculture ..........................................................112 8.2 International and European policy targets for plant genetic resources.....................113 8.3 European initiatives for the conservation and use of plant genetic resources .........115 8.4 Challenges and opportunities from the European perspective ..................................118 8.5 Options for the EU for the conservation and use of plant genetic resources............121 9 THE IMPACTS OF BEE DECLINE ON BIODIVERSITY AND POLLINATION IN THE EU .............................................................................................................................................123 9.1 The importance of pollinators..........................................................................................123 9.2 Pollinator decline in Europe.............................................................................................123 9.3 European beekeeping........................................................................................................124 9.4 The factors affecting bee/pollinator populations in the EU........................................124 9.5 The impact of bee/pollinator declines on crop production in the EU.......................129 9.6 Actions to address each of these factors and maintain pollination services .............130 9.7 What is needed to reverse pollinator decline in Europe? ............................................133 10 THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE, AND AGRICULTURE AND BIODIVERSITY: RECOMMENDED OPTIONS .................135 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................140 2 Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture ACRONYMS AES agri-environment scheme ANC Area of Natural Constraint (previously Less Favoured Area or Natural Handicap) CAP Common Agricultural Policy CBD UN Convention on Biological Diversity CLC CORINE Land Cover CMEF Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework DMP Drought Management Plan DNA deoxyribonucleic acid (genetic material) EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development EFA Ecological Focus Area (part of CAP reform greening proposal) EFSA European Food Safety Authority EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIP European Innovation Partnership ETC/BD European Topic Centre on Biodiversity ETS Emissions Trading System FADN Farm Accountancy Data Network FAS Farm Advisory Service FP5, FP6, EU Framework Programme for Research (FP5 1998-2002; FP6 2002-2006; FP7 2007-2013) FP7 GAEC Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition GHG Greenhouse gas (see glossary) GMO Genetically Modified Organism (see glossary) GMHT Genetically modified herbicide tolerant crop (see glossary) GM Bt Genetically modified insect resistant crop containing Bt gene (see glossary) HNV High Nature Value (farming areas and systems) 3 STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment iLUC indirect land use change IPCC International Panel on Climate Change IPM integrated Pest Management (see glossary) IWM Integrated Weed Management (see glossary) LULUCF Land use, land use change, and forestry (in relation to greenhouse gas emissions accounting) NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan PES Payment for Ecosystem Services PGRFA plant genetic resources for food and agriculture RNA ribonucleic acid (genetic material) SOC Soil organic carbon (see glossary) SOM Soil organic matter (see glossary) UAA Utilized Agricultural Area 4