Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate- gic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De- fense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re- ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par- ticipation in national security policy formulation. SSI Monograph INDIA’S CHANGING AFGHANISTAN POLICY: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS Harsh V. Pant December 2012 The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Depart- ment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Gov- ernment. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas- sified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepre- sent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in- terest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec- tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be down- loaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and appropriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Stud- ies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA. Contact SSI by visiting our website at the following address: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail news- letter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and up- coming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet- ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute. army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-560-7 ii FOREWORD As public pressure intensifies in Western nations, important changes have been taking place in the Western strategy toward Afghanistan. In this rapidly evolving geostrategic context, other regional powers, including India, are having to reassess their policies vis-à-vis Afghanistan. This monograph examines the changing trajectory of Indian policy toward Af- ghanistan since 2001 and argues that New Delhi has been responding to a strategic environment shaped by other actors in the region. As the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces prepare to leave Afghanistan in 2014, India stands at a crossroads as it remains keen to preserve its interests in Afghanistan. This monograph underlines the ever-evolving Indian policy in Afghanistan by examining it in three phases, before drawing out the implications of this change for the region and the West. New Delhi expects anarchy to intensify in the northwestern subcontinent, as insurgents in Afghani- stan have been repeatedly successful in undermining local and international confidence in the viability of extant political structures in Kabul amidst the with- drawal of Western forces. Insulating India from the widening disorder will remain the main strategic objective of New Delhi’s policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. India is trying to ensure that it does not lose out, as has happened in the past, as new realities emerge in the region in the coming years. This monograph comes at a time when Indian foreign policy has become more ambitious than ever before in identifying its priorities. Afghanistan is also seen by many in India as a test case of India’s role as a security provider in its own neighborhood. Accord- iii ingly, the author of this monograph, Dr. Harsh V. Pant, examines the trajectory of Indian policy toward Afghanistan over the past decade and underscores the implications for the region and the United States in particular at a time when U.S.-India ties are strong and vibrant. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as part of its continuing effort to inform the debate on Afghanistan’s future, and to help strategic leaders better understand the realities of the contemporary South Asian strategic landscape. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute iv ABOUT THE AUTHOR HARSH V. PANT is Reader in International Relations in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, United Kingdom. He is also an Associate at the Centre for Science and Security Studies and the India Institute at King’s College London. He has been a Visiting Professor at the Indian Institute of Manage- ment, Bangalore; a Visiting Fellow at the Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsyl- vania; a Visiting Scholar at the Center for International Peace and Security Studies, McGill University, Mon- treal, Canada; and an Emerging Leaders Fellow at the Australia-India Institute, University of Melbourne, Australia. His current research is focused on Asian se- curity issues. Dr. Pant’s most recent books include The US-India Nuclear Pact: Policy, Process and Great Power Politics (Oxford University Press, 2011), The Rise of Chi- na: Implications for India (Cambridge University Press, 2012), and The Rise of the Indian Navy: Internal Vulner- abilities: External Challenges (Ashgate, 2012). Dr. Pant is a graduate of Delhi University. He holds an M.A. and an M.Phil. from Jawaharlal Nehru University and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Notre Dame. v SUMMARY Since 2001, Afghanistan has allowed New Delhi an opportunity to underscore its role as a regional power. India has growing stakes in peace and stability in Af- ghanistan, and the 2011 India-Afghan strategic part- nership agreement underlines India’s commitment to ensure that a positive momentum in Delhi-Kabul ties is maintained. This monograph examines the changing trajectory of Indian policy toward Afghanistan since 2001 and argues that New Delhi has been respond- ing to a strategic environment shaped by other actors in the region. As the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces prepare to leave Afghanistan in 2014, India stands at a crossroads as it remains keen to preserve its interests in Afghanistan. This monograph underlines the ever-evolving Indian policy in Afghan- istan by examining it in three phases before drawing out the implications of this change for the region and the United States. There has been a broader maturing of the U.S.-India defense ties, and Afghanistan is like- ly to be a beneficiary of this trend. Managing Pakistan and unravelling Islamabad’s encirclement complex should be the biggest priority for both Washington and New Delhi in the coming years if there is to be any hope of keeping Afghanistan a stable entity post-2014. vii INDIA’S CHANGING AFGHANISTAN POLICY: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS New Delhi has long viewed South Asia as India’s exclusive sphere of influence and has sought to pre- vent the intervention of external powers in the affairs of the region. The notion of a “Monroe Doctrine” simi- lar to the one proclaimed for the Western Hemisphere by the United States in the 19th century was explored by Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister. Henceforth, the security of its neighboring states was considered to be intricately linked with India’s own security and was deemed essential if India were to attain the status of a major global power.1 With India’s rise in the global interstate hierarchy in recent years, tensions have emerged between its purported role on the world stage and the demands of the challenges it faces in its own neighbourhood. South Asia is a difficult neighborhood, and India’s strategic periphery continues to witness turmoil and uncertainty. The instability in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar is a ma- jor inhibiting factor for India to realize its dream of becoming a major global player. India’s attempts to emerge as a global economic power are marred by the uncertainty in the region, which has even stalled its attempts at building interdependencies and en- hancing connectivity. India is surrounded by several weak states that view New Delhi’s hegemonic status in the region with suspicion. The conundrum India faces is that, while on the one hand it is often seen as unresponsive to the concerns of its neighbors, on the other, any diplomatic aggressiveness on its part is viewed with suspicion and often resentment. The structural position of India in the region makes it high- 1