Indecision Points The Belfer Center Studies in International Security book series is edited at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School and is published by The MIT Press. The series publishes books on con- temporary issues in international security policy, as well as their conceptual and historical foundations. Topics of particular interest to the series include the spread of weapons of mass destruction, internal conflict, the international effects of democracy and democratization, and U.S. defense policy. A complete list of Belfer Center Studies appears at the back of this volume. Indecision Points George W. Bush and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Daniel E. Zoughbie BELFER CENTER STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England © 2014 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any format by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. For more information, contact The MIT Press, One Rogers Street, Cambridge, MA 02142. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zoughbie, Daniel, 1984– Indecision points : George W. Bush and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict / Daniel E. Zoughbie, Belfer Center Studies in International Security. pages cm. — (Belfer Center studies in international security) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-262-02733-5 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Arab–Israeli conflict—1993—Peace. 2. Arab–Israeli conflict—1993—Diplomatic his- tory. 3. Bush, George W. (George Walker), 1946– 4. United States—Foreign relations— Middle East. 5. Middle East—Foreign relations—United States. 6. United States—Foreign relations—2001–2009. I. Title. DS119.76.Z68 2014 956.05’4—dc23 2014012461 To my mother and father ...AND THE TRUTH SHALL MAKE US FREE. C O N T E N T S Acknowledgments ix C H A P T E R 1 Introduction 1 C H A P T E R 2 A World Transformed 9 C H A P T E R 3 The Rose Garden and the Road Map 33 C H A P T E R 4 Politicide as Sequence 55 C H A P T E R 5 The Lost Year 77 C H A P T E R 6 A New Middle East 97 vii viii Indecision Points C H A P T E R 7 A Requiem for Liberty 119 C H A P T E R 8 Conclusion 143 Notes 149 Selected Bibliography 199 List of Interviews 213 About the Author 219 Index 221 List of Belfer Center Studies in International Affairs 229 About the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 232 A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S I n a world that once again appears to be moving toward all sorts of terrible fanaticisms, with nuclear and chemical weapons programs in play, extremist militants flooding destabilized states, and chronic volatility threatening to disrupt regional and international economic stability, one cannot afford to ignore the relevance of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for international affairs. The central aim of this book is to provide an explanation for changing U.S. policy toward the conflict during one of the most consequential periods in contemporary world his- tory, and in doing so, to uncover the assumptions that shaped it. The book, and the thesis from which it eventuated, has evolved through many conversations with my doctoral supervisor at Oxford, Avi Shlaim, who, with tremendous knowledge, wisdom, and understanding, lighted my way. For his steadfast support and incisive criticism of my work, I must register my heartfelt gratitude; that it may still contain imperfections is something for which I am wholly responsible. I’m grateful to Sean Lynn-Jones and Karen Motley, who provided excellent feedback on the entire book manuscript. I thank Graham Allison, Stephen Walt, Steven Miller, Susan Lynch, and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. I am also indebted to Nezar AlSayyad and Emily Gottreich at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies and the Sultan Program at the University of California, Berkeley, and Larry Diamond and Lina Khatib at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law for providing me with a community of support as I executed the many facets of this book project. The faculty and staff of Exeter College, the Middle East Centre, and the De- partment of Politics and International Relations made Oxford a warm and stimulat- ing intellectual home for me as I completed the doctoral research upon which this book is based. In particular, I wish to thank Yuen Foong Khong, Raffaella Del Sarto, ix