TRACE Project. Deliverable 1.2. Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident causation analysis A. Molinero, J. M. Perandones, T. Hermitte, A. Grimaldi, J. Gwehengerber, D. Daschner, J. M. Barrios, A. Aparicio, S. Schick, P. van Elslande, et al. To cite this version: A. Molinero, J. M. Perandones, T. Hermitte, A. Grimaldi, J. Gwehengerber, et al.. TRACE Project. Deliverable 1.2. Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident causation analysis. 2008, 297p. ￿hal-00545392￿ HAL Id: hal-00545392 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00545392 Submitted on 10 Dec 2010 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Project No. FP6-2004-IST-4 027763 Deliverable 1.2 Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident causation analysis Contractual Date of Delivery to the CEC: M30, June 2008. Actual Date of Delivery to the CEC: June 2008 Author(s): Aquilino Molinero, José Miguel Perandones, Thierry Hermitte, Alfonso Grimaldi, Johann Gwehengerber, Dieter Daschner, José Manuel Barrios, Andrés Aparicio, Sylvia Schick, Pierre Van Elslande, Katel Fouquet. Participant(s): CIDAUT, LAB, ELASIS, ALLIANZ, IDIADA, LMU, INRETS. Workpackage: WP1 – Road Users. Validated by WP1 leader: Aquilino Molinero (CIDAUT). Validated by reviewers: All the authors. Validated by TRACE Coordinator: Yves Page (LAB). Est. person months: 20. Security: Public. Nature: Report. Version: 1. Total number of pages: 297 (Annexes: 75 pages). Abstract: This report aims to present the final results of the descriptive statistical, in-depth and risk analysis performed within the first TRACE Work Package, ‘WP1-Road Users’, in order to identify the main problems and the magnitude of these problems related to accident causation and risk factors for the following five different road user groups: passenger car drivers; powered two wheelers riders; van, bus and truck drivers; pedestrian and cyclists and, finally, elderly people and gender classification. The different analysis (descriptive, in-depth and risk) of each of these five tasks has been performed using the available European accident databases within TRACE (national, in-depth and exposure databases). The main output of this report are (from each road user point of view): - A summary of the descriptive analysis done in a previous report (D1.1) with the main characteristics of the accidents gathered in different extensive databases, from the road user’s point of view. - The understanding and identification of the accident causes by means of micro level analyses. - The estimation of the risk of being involved in an accident for these five user categories. Keyword list: Descriptive analysis, in-depth databases, risk factors, accident causation, human function failure, road user groups, passenger cars, powered two wheelers, buses, trucks, vans, pedestrians, cyclists, elderly people, gender. Date of delivery : June 2008 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................5 1.1 Main results for each road user point of view............................................................................10 1.1.1 Task 1.1: Passenger Car Drivers......................................................................10 1.1.2 Task 1.2: Powered Two Wheeler Riders..........................................................12 1.1.3 Task 1.3: Van, Bus and Truck Drivers.............................................................14 1.1.4 Task 1.4: Pedestrian and Cyclists.....................................................................16 1.1.5 Task 1.5: Elderly People and Gender related accidents...................................18 2 Introduction................................................................................................................................23 2.1 Objectives of TRACE Project.........................................................................................................24 2.2 ‘Work Package 1: Road Users’......................................................................................................25 2.2.1 WP1 description...............................................................................................25 2.2.2 Overview of the problem..................................................................................27 2.2.3 WP1 Partners....................................................................................................29 2.2.4 WP1 objectives and methodology....................................................................30 2.2.5 Deliverable D1.2..............................................................................................32 3 Task 1.1: Passenger Car Drivers..............................................................................................34 3.1 Main results from deliverable D1.1..............................................................................................34 3.2 In-depth analysis.............................................................................................................................34 3.2.1 Data selection...................................................................................................34 3.2.2 Results from overall in-depth analysis.............................................................34 3.2.3 Single passenger car drivers’ accidents analysis..............................................38 3.2.4 Multi-vehicles accidents analysis.....................................................................44 3.3 Discussions.......................................................................................................................................54 3.4 Conclusions......................................................................................................................................56 4 Task 1.2: Powered Two Wheelers Riders...............................................................................57 4.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................57 4.2 Main results from the Deliverable D1.1.......................................................................................58 4.3 In-Depth analysis............................................................................................................................61 4.3.1 Methodology....................................................................................................61 4.3.2 Database...........................................................................................................62 4.3.3 Accident causation analysis.............................................................................63 4.3.4 Human Function Failure...................................................................................66 4.3.5 Risk analysis.....................................................................................................68 4.4 Conclusions......................................................................................................................................75 4.5 References........................................................................................................................................77 5 Task 1.3: Vans, Bus and Truck Drivers...................................................................................78 5.1 Main results from deliverable D1.1..............................................................................................78 A.- Vans................................................................................................................................................80 5.2 In-depth analysis.............................................................................................................................80 5.2.1 Method.............................................................................................................80 5.2.2 Available data...................................................................................................80 5.2.3 Involved countries and geographical areas......................................................80 Date of delivery : June 2008 5.2.4 List of used causation factors...........................................................................80 5.2.5 Causation factors..............................................................................................81 5.3 Conclusions......................................................................................................................................85 B.- Buses..............................................................................................................................................86 5.4 In-depth analysis.............................................................................................................................86 5.4.1 Causation factors..............................................................................................86 5.5 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................90 5.6 References........................................................................................................................................90 C.- Trucks.............................................................................................................................................91 5.7 Main results from Deliverable D1.1..............................................................................................92 5.7.1 Main results from the literature review............................................................92 5.7.2 Main descriptive analysis results......................................................................93 5.8 In depth analysis.............................................................................................................................93 5.8.1 ETAC project...................................................................................................93 5.8.2 Expected results in TRACE analyses...............................................................96 5.8.3 TRACE ‘In-Depth’ Analysis..........................................................................102 5.9 Result analysis...............................................................................................................................105 5.9.1 Global.............................................................................................................106 5.9.2 Scenarios and Main Accident types...............................................................108 5.9.3 Scenarios and main factors.............................................................................116 5.10 Conclusions....................................................................................................................................123 5.10.1 General database statistics..............................................................................123 5.10.2 Main study results..........................................................................................125 6 Task 1.4: Pedestrians and Cyclists........................................................................................128 6.1 Main results from deliverable D1.1............................................................................................130 6.1.1 Main literature review results.........................................................................130 6.1.2 Main descriptive analysis results....................................................................131 A.- Pedestrians..................................................................................................................................132 6.2 In depth analysis...........................................................................................................................132 6.2.1 Data used for the in-depth analysis................................................................132 6.2.2 Human functional failure (HFF) analysis.......................................................135 6.3 Discussion......................................................................................................................................152 6.3.1 LMU...............................................................................................................152 6.3.2 IDIADA..........................................................................................................154 6.4 Conclusions....................................................................................................................................156 6.4.1 Comments related to the available data..........................................................156 6.4.2 Conclusions for pedestrians involved in pedestrian accidents.......................157 6.4.3 Conclusions for drivers involved in pedestrian accidents..............................157 6.4.4 Recommendations for improving safety........................................................158 6.4.5 Difficulties found and lacks to be solved.......................................................158 6.4.6 Next steps.......................................................................................................158 6.5 References......................................................................................................................................159 B.- Cyclists........................................................................................................................................160 6.6 In depth analysis...........................................................................................................................160 6.6.1 Data used for the in-depth analysis................................................................160 Date of delivery : June 2008 6.6.2 Data analysis..................................................................................................160 6.7 Discussion......................................................................................................................................168 6.7.1 VSRC (OTS)..................................................................................................168 6.7.2 ELASIS..........................................................................................................168 6.8 General Conclusions.....................................................................................................................168 6.8.1 Recommendations for improving Safety........................................................168 6.8.2 Difficulties found and lacks to be solved.......................................................169 6.8.3 Next Steps......................................................................................................169 6.9 References......................................................................................................................................169 7 Task 1.5: Elderly people and Gender related accidents......................................................171 A.- Elderly people.............................................................................................................................171 7.1 In-depth investigation of accident patterns among elderly drivers using the TRACE WP5 methodology................................................................................................................................................171 7.1.1 Pre-accident situation.....................................................................................172 7.1.2 Level of involvement in the accident.............................................................173 7.1.3 Errors and error factors among the elderly: overall analysis.........................174 7.1.4 Errors and error factors among the elderly: fine analysis..............................176 7.1.5 Failures among elderly people in emergency situations................................191 7.1.6 Discussion......................................................................................................192 B.- Gender issues..............................................................................................................................196 7.2 In-depth investigation of accident patterns according to gender using TRACE WP5 methodology................................................................................................................................................196 7.2.1 Error production context: pre-accident situation and level of involvement...196 7.2.2 Errors and error factors among drivers: overall analysis...............................196 7.2.3 Errors and error factors among drivers: detailed analysis..............................198 7.2.4 Discussion......................................................................................................213 7.2.5 Conclusions....................................................................................................215 8 Conclusions..............................................................................................................................216 9 References..................................................................................................................................219 10 Acknowledgement....................................................................................................................220 11 Annex 1: Tables and figures....................................................................................................222 11.1 Annex 1.1: Passenger car drivers................................................................................................222 11.2 Annex 1.2: Powered Two Wheelers............................................................................................260 11.3 Annex 1.3: Vans, Bus and Truck Drivers...................................................................................260 11.4 Annex 1.4: Pedestrian and Cyclists.............................................................................................261 11.4.1 Pedestrians......................................................................................................261 11.4.2 Cyclists...........................................................................................................272 11.5 Annex 2.5: Elderly people and Gender related accidents........................................................273 11.5.1 Elderly people................................................................................................273 11.5.2 Gender issues..................................................................................................282 Date of delivery : June 2008 Deliverable D1.12 ‘Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident analysis’ 5 1 Executive Summary Two thirds of the road casualties occur in developing countries according to the World Health Organization and other sources. In 2006, there were 1,277,126 accidents involving injured casualties at EU271 level where 42,953 people were killed and 1,678,474 people were injured. Therefore, enhancement of safety at pan European level still constitutes a main social concern despite the several efforts developed during the last decades to improve the level of safety in vehicles. Many experts agree that the prevention of accidents and recovery in case of emergency situation approaches are to be brought forward in order to continue with this positive safety trend. Although existing data sources cannot provide the analysis that Europe may need at this moment, they can contribute to give a better understanding of accident causation and to evaluate the effectiveness of some on-board safety functions with the final purpose of improving road safety. The European Commission set the ambitious aim of halving the number of road traffic fatalities by 2010 in its White Paper ‘European transport policy for 2010: time to decide’ of 2001. The European Road Safety Action Programme of 2003 underlines the fact that this target is a ‘shared responsibility’ and can thus only be achieved with the joint effort of all stakeholders. Since these papers were published, much progress has been achieved. According to the EC’s evolution report (published in December 2007) fatalities in the EU-27 have been reduced by 18,8% between 2001 and 20062 (from 53,909 to 45,296) or even, based on the last available data (by May 2008), fatalities in EU-27 have decreased 2% during the last 12 months3. Although these reductions are very important, there is still a difference between the actual result and the target of halving the number of deaths on the roads by 2010. Nevertheless, current safety policies and research projects focused on these subjects are helping to achieve this goal. The following figure shows the most update situation in EU-27 taking also into account the population for each country. In this figure, countries from south seem to have lower rates than from north (possibly due to historical backgrounds). Figure 1.1.- Road fatality rates: fatalities in Europe per million of habitants (Sources: EUROSTAT 2005, Safetynet 2007). As it can be shown in the following figure, although the trend is decreasing, too many aspects should be applied into the road world (politician decisions, safety measures, driving training,…) to gather this important objective. 1 CARE reports: Road safety evolution in EU (December 2007). 2 CARE database: Road safety evolution in EU countries. December 2007. 3 CARE database: Quick Indicator latest data. May 2008. Date of delivery : June 2008 Deliverable D1.12 ‘Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident analysis’ 6 80000 75000 75334 EU - 15 EU - 25 70000 71160 70628 EU - 27 65288 EU - 15 Target 65000 66554 63813 63107 EU - 25 Target 60000 61254 59363 60208 58913 EU - 27 Traget 56027 59579 58997 57625 56000 55000 52771 55498 56420 55151 53868 53051 fatalities4550000000 48556 46513 46098 43625 43314 42344 5440179300 5248950396 544079857795368 4446779168 444497889985039 46821 44952 41009 39861 43460 41897 40000 38624 41997 41354 38905 35845 39197 35000 37647 32625 36397 35912 35432 30987 32919 33218 33597 29927 30000 31003 30798 26934 28789 25000 26574 27998 24360 25198 20000 22145 19931 15000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years Figure 1.2.- Road Safety evolution in EU-271. Because the reduction of road traffic injuries is a challenge, the European Community has been trying for many years to promote initiatives through the different Framework Programs in order to contribute to the safety effort. The Commission has expressed two kinds of interest as regards accident analysis: (cid:190) Research in consistent accident causation analysis to gain a detailed knowledge about the real backgrounds of European traffic accidents using existing data sources. (cid:190) Research to assess the potential impact and socio-economic cost/benefit, up to 2020, of stand- alone and co-operative intelligent vehicle safety systems in Europe. Within this context, TRACE project (TRaffic Accident Causation in Europe) is aimed at developing a scientific accident analysis encompassing two main issues: (cid:190) The determination and the continuous up-dating of the aetiology, i.e. causes, of road accidents under three different but complementary research angles: road users, types of situations and types of factors. (cid:190) The identification and the assessment (in terms of saved lives and avoided accidents), among possible technology-based safety functions, of the most promising solutions that can assist the driver or any other road users in a normal road situation or in a emergency situation or, as a last resort, mitigate the violence of crashes and protect the vehicle occupants, the pedestrians, and the two-wheelers in case of a crash or a rollover. TRACE analyses on the accident causes are developed through reliable exposure, accident and injury data systems. Therefore, the safety diagnosis provided by TRACE is based on available, reliable and accessible existing and on-going databases. Accident causation is a topic that deserves more than only statistical tables. Current knowledge needs to be structured and linked to specific research angles and analysed according to specific methodologies to avoid misleading and to allow a clear view of what accident causation is. Therefore, TRACE proposes three different research angles to cover accident causation issues: 1 CARE, IRTAD, IRF and National Databank Statistics. Date of delivery : June 2008 Deliverable D1.12 ‘Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident analysis’ 7 (cid:190) The Road user approach: it allows specific causation factors for specific road users (it will be dealt in Work Package 1 ‘Road User’). (cid:190) The Types of situation approach: as the road user can be confronted with different driving situations that can develop into different emergency situations that deserve specific analysis regardless the road user type (it will be dealt in Work Package 2 ‘Type of situations’). (cid:190) The Types of factors approach: factors can be identified and observed according to an innovative split: the social and cultural factors, the factors related to the trip itself and the factors related to the driving task (it will be dealt in Work Package 3 ‘Human factors’). WP1 Road Users WP2 Type of Situations WP3 Type of Risk Factors Figure 1.3.- Three different research angles to cover accident causation in TRACE. Within this context, WP1 (Road Users) is addressing the analysis of the different accident causation mechanisms of each of the road user groups. The work package is divided in five different tasks: (cid:190) Task 1.1: Passenger Car Drivers. This task will try to organise the acquired knowledge according to the macro – micro – risk split and to perform additional analyses specially on accident involving newer cars in order to get a prospective view of the remaining factors of accidents that we will observe 5 to 10 years ahead when all cars will be equipped with devices that already proved effectiveness. (cid:190) Task 1.2: Powered Two Wheeler Riders. Motorcycles and mopeds plays one of the most important roles in the traffic system. There are some specific characteristics of this user group that need to be addressed in this Task: relationship between motorcycles and other vehicles, conspicuity, rider psychological characteristics, training and education of PTW riders, road alignment and infrastructure … (cid:190) Task 1.3: Van, Bus and Truck Drivers. At macro level, it is intended to use intensive databases from the police records and insurance files, analysing the data with the main focus on available causation data broken down by different variables. At micro level, other parameters related to accident causation will be analysed in-depth: fatigue, alcohol, speed, visibility, distance to other vehicles, … At last, the analysis of exposure data will allow obtaining the risk of the accident. (cid:190) Task 1.4: Pedestrian and Cyclists. The approach to perform the work in this Task is based on the principle of improving road safety for vulnerable road users looking into the effect of safety functions on pedestrians and cyclist safety. Risk factors and situations that apply to them will also be evaluated, taking into account statistical information on accidents and in-depth studies. (cid:190) Task 1.5: Elderly People and Gender related accidents. The objective of this task is to analyse the specificity of the difficulties encountered by these groups inside the traffic system. These two populations are commonly poorly studied, and Date of delivery : June 2008 Deliverable D1.12 ‘Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident analysis’ 8 tend too often to be analysed according to stereotypes. Their accidental problems will be examined in logic of comparison with other road users. WP1 Road Users WP2 Type of Situations WP3 Type of Risk Factors Task 1.1 Passenger car 52% ofallfatalitiesin EU-27 Task1.2.- Power Two Wheelers 15% ofallfatalitiesin EU-27 99% ofallroadfatalitiesin EU-27 Task 1.3.- Van, Bus and Truck 5% ofallfatalitiesin EU-27 Task 1.4.- Pedestrian and cyclist 27% ofallfatalitiesin EU-27 Task1.5.- Elder people and gender Figure 1.4.- Different road user groups (tasks) planned in TRACE (2004)1. The above tasks main objective is to identify the accident causation aspects through three different kinds of analyses: 1. A macroscopic statistical analysis aimed at describing the main problems of each road user group (Descriptive Analysis). 2. A microscopic analysis aimed at describing the accident mechanisms with the use of in – depth data (In – Depth Analysis). 3. A risk analysis aimed at quantifying the risk factors in terms of risk, relative risk and, where possible, attributable risks. 1 Statistics of Road Traffic Accidents in Europe and North America. United Nations (2007). Date of delivery : June 2008 Deliverable D1.12 ‘Road users and accident causation. Part 2: In-depth accident analysis’ 9 Main steps Main outputs Literature review •Main accident scenarios. •Updated accident configurations Descriptive analysis •Detailed information for the main accident scenarios. In-depth analysis •Accident causation for each scenario. •Human Function Failures in each scenario. Risk-exposure analysis •Risk factors related to accident causation or each scenario. Figure 1.5.- Steps planned in WP1 for the detection of the accident causation and risk factors. The present deliverable D1.2 will cover the last two types of analyses within WP1 (In-depth and Risk analysis) for each one of the different road users groups, corresponding to the activities of each task. Based on the results from the ‘Deliverable D1.1: Road users and accident causation. Part 1: Overview and general statistics’, these analyses will be done over the main accident scenarios (from each road user point of view) detected in this first deliverable. During the present deliverable D1.2, main results from D1.1 will be mentioned in order to remember them. After these remind results, the ‘in – depth analysis’ over TRACE intensive databases (from ‘Work Package 8: Data Supply’) will provide the main accident causation mechanism for each of the identified problems at macroscopic level. Microscopic accident databases will provide information able to tackle the three basic pillars of safety: the driver, the environment and the vehicle. Only looking at the whole picture of each accident with deep detail it can be stated what set of factors can be considered as causes of the accident. Therefore, what ‘in-depth analysis’ will provide to TRACE project is the possibility of detecting which the main ‘contributing factors’ are in accidents, this would mean the way to know all the accident causations, from different point of view. The big difference between analyzing information from ‘National databases’ or from ‘In-depth databases’ is the possibility to obtain more precious information from the last one. This is the main reason ‘In-depth’ analyses will be done over the most frequently accident scenarios detected in ‘National database’ analysis. Also, an important output of this report from the ‘In-depth’ database analyses to be done will be the determination of the main human function failures existing in the accidents. The Human methods developed in the ‘Work Package 5: Human Factors’ will be applied to each user group. At last, ‘risk analysis’ will be done to estimate what is the risk of being involved in an accident for each of the different road users groups taking into consideration the exposure to the different causation mechanisms identified in the in – depth analysis. A deeper explanation of this activity would help to understand that, through respective statistical analysis (odds-ratio values, logistics regressions,… explained in the ‘methodological statistical reports’ from the ‘Work Package 7: Statistical Methods’) over specific variables coming from exposure data, risk factors will be detected. In fact, these risk factors will be variables (coming from exposure data) that can be considered as influential in the occurrence of an accident. Of course, these risk factors are supposed to be statistically related to contributing factors in each scenario, so that, when a risk factor exists during the previous phase to an accident, this can mean that a contributing factor can appear (due the relation between risk factors and contributing factors) and therefore the accident is more likely to happen. The study of these risk factors will also help to answer questions related to aspects as over-representation of Date of delivery : June 2008