' ••-••''•-:•"H:K-f-iS.flWWC BI • -. :..".A•--M:;v.".>-'.-"—..-'r--,.r-.•..1I:.M,'&;._'-:'-.•J-"-•:- uttl'TJCcs; ..';':' jSeEmgusx.* 5&H eh? SKesS*'.4';;.' cspJfiKsSi c&j&jcJpCaoS.«•,"''xSSsKSfeAX '•'-'5?cs£fisc3E5 ^ffr^tyMfofl*£? KSKKi --' !3RnfvK*FJc« miP5sis§SS»ii«£a -'-•'-> NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS IMPLEMENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF A SMART SUBMARINE THE IN ACTIVE SONOBUOY MODEL by Michael Shawn Wells September 1991 Thesis Advisor: William J. Walsh Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited T259270 Unclassified SECURITYCLASSIFICATION OFTHIS PAGE Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No.0704-0188 1a. REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION 1b. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED 2a. SECURITYCLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOF REPORT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 2b. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 4. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 6a. NAMEOF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICESYMBOL! 7a. NAMEOF MONITORING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School OR 6c.ADDRESS (City, State,andZIPCode) 7b.ADDRESS (City, State,andZIPCode) Monterey, CA 93943-5000 8a. NAMEOF FUNDING/SPONSORING 8b. OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENTINSTRUMENTIDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION 8c.ADDRESS (City, State,and ZIP Code) 10. SOURCEOF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORK UNIT ELEMENTNO. NO. NO. ACCESSION NO 11.TITLE (Including Security Classification) IMPLEMENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF A SMART SUBMARINE IN THE ACTIVE SONOBUOY MODEL 12 PERSONALAUTHOR(S) Wells, Michael Shawn 13 TYPEOF REPORT 13b.TIMECOVERED 14. DATEOF REPORT(Year, Month, Day) 15. PageCount Master'sthesis FROM TO 1991, September 16.SUPPLEMENTALNOTATION Theviews expressed in thisthesis arethose ofthe authorand do not reflect the official policy or position ofthe Department of Defense orthe U.S. Government. 17. COSATICODES 18.SUBJECTTERMS (Continueon reverse ifnecessaryand identifybyblocknumber) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Sonobuoys, Submarine Evasion 19.ABSTRACT(Continueon reverse ifnecessaryand identifybyblocknumber) The Active Sonobuoy Model simulates a single aircraft attempting to detect and maintain contact on a single submarine. The submarine executes a pre-determined sequence of maneuvers upon counter-detection oftheactive sonobuoys. Under present methodologythese maneuvers are not situation dependent, and do not provide an accurate depiction of reality. The purpose ofthisthesis is to improve the level of reality ofthe Active Sonobuoy Model through the implementation ofa set of situation dependent maneuver rulesforthe submarine. This "smart" submarine is then compared tothe previously existing "dumb" submarine through the use of hypothesistesting undertwo measure of effectiveness. The results showthat the "smart" submarine provides a more difficult target forthe aircraftto detect and sustain contactwith than the "dumb" submarine. 20 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILTIYOFABSTRACT 1a. REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION (XJ UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED fj SAMEASRPT.Q DTIC Unclassified 22a. NAMEOF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b.TELEPHONE(IncludeAreaCode) 22c. OFFICESYMBOL William J. Walsh (408)646-3113 OR/Wa DD Form 1473, JUN Previouseditionsareobselete. SECURITYCLASSIFICATION OFTHIS PAGE S/N0102-LF-014-6603 Unclassified i Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Implementation and Analysis of a Smart Submarine in the Active Sonobuoy Model by Michael S. Wells Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 1991 ABSTRACT The Active Sonobuoy Model simulates a single aircraft attempting to detect and maintain contact on a single submarine. The submarine executes a pre-determined sequence of maneuvers upon counter-detection of the active sonobuoys. Under present methodology these maneuvers are not situation dependent, and do not provide an accurate depiction of reality. The purpose of this thesis is to improve the level of reality of the Active Sonobuoy Model through the implementation of a set of situation dependent maneuver rules for the submarine. This "smart" submarine is then compared to the previously existing "dumb" submarine through the use of hypothesis testing under two measures of effectiveness. The results show that the "smart" submarine provides a more difficult target for the aircraft to detect and sustain contact with than the "dumb" submarine. 111 r* U THESIS DISCLAIMER The reader is cautioned that computer programs developed in this research may not have been exercised for all cases of interest. While every effort has been made, within the time available, to ensure that the programs are free of computational and logic errors, they cannot be considered validated. Any application of these programs without additional verification is at the risk of the user. IV