भारतीय कृ षि व्यापार पर एसियान भारत मुक्त व्यापार िमझौते का प्रभाव IMPACT OF ASEAN INDIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT ON INDIAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE Ms. RENJINI V R DIVISION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS INDIAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE NEW DELHI – 110 012 2016 IMPACT OF ASEAN INDIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT ON INDIAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE By Ms. RENJINI V R A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Post-GraduateSchool, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 2016 Approved by: Chairman : Dr. Amit Kar Co-chairperson : Dr. Pramod Kumar Members : Dr. G K Jha : Dr. R R Burman 2 Division of Agricultural Economics Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi -110 012 Dr. Amit Kar Principal Scientist CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the thesis entitled “Impact of ASEAN India Free Trade Agreement on Indian agricultural trade” submitted to the Faculty of the Post-Graduate School, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, in partial fulfillment of Doctor of Philosophy in Agricultural Economics, embodies the results of bona fide research work carried out by Ms. Renjini V R., Roll No. 10233 under my guidance and supervision, and that no part of this thesis has been submitted for any other degree or diploma. The assistance and help availed during the course of investigation as well as source of information have been duly acknowledged. (Dr. Amit Kar) Chairman Advisory committee Place: New Delhi, Date: 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Apart from the efforts of me, the success of any project depends largely on the encouragement and guidelines of many others. I take this opportunity to express my gratitude to the people who have been instrumental in the successful completion of my research. At first, I wish to thank the almighty for giving me powers to complete my entire work. I wish to express my deepest sense of gratitude and indebtedness to the Chairman of my advisory committee Dr Amit Kar, Head & Principal Scientist, Division of Agricultural Economics, IARI, New Delhi for his invaluable guidance, constant encouragement, immense patience, useful discussion and peerless criticism during the course of investigation and preparation of the manuscript. Without his encouragement and guidance this research would not have been materialized. It is great privilege for me to express my esteem and profound sense of gratitude to Dr Pramod Kumar, Principal Scientist, Division of Agricultural Economics, IARI, New Delhi also, Co chairman of my Advisory Committee for his constructive and valuable suggestions. I wish to place on record, with great pleasure, my sincere and special thanks to Dr. G K Jha, Principal Scientist, Division of Agricultural Economics, IARI, New Delhi for his constant relentless guidance with valuable suggestions during the course of the investigation. He was always there in all my needs and helped his best whenever I seek for it. My heartfelt thanks to Dr R R Burman, Principal Scientist, Division of Agricultural Extension, IARI, New Delhi member of my Advisory Committee for his encouragement and invaluable suggestions endowed during the course of work. My deep sense of gratitude to Dr Alka Singh, Professor of Division of Agricultural Economics, IARI, New Delhi for her whole-hearted cooperation and encouragement during my course of study. Mam, you have been a tremendous mentor for me. Your advice on both research as well as on my career have been priceless. I convey my sincere thanks to Dr V C Mathur, former professor and Dr Suresh Pal, former Head , Division of Agricultural Economics, IARI, New Delhi for their valuable help and advice during my research work. My special thanks to Mr. Rajesh Kumar Danda, World Bank, and Mr. Samuel M, UNCTAD for their guidance and teaching rendered in my study. Without their service through web conferencing and patient reply to my queries, I couldn’t have completed my research work. My hearty gratitude to Dr Bitan Mondal, faculty, BCKV for providing me technical guidance during my research. I am always indebted to Praveen chetan for his support and kind concern for me. Without him, my work wouldn’t have completed smoothly. 4 It is my pleasure to express my gratitude and reverence to Dr. Suresh, Dr Shinoj, Dr. Venkatesh., Dr. Anbukkani, Dr D R Singh, Mr Inbasekhar, and all other scientists of Division of Agricultural Economics for being constant source of encouragement for me. I am indebted to all the staff of the Division of Agricultural Economics, especially Vermaji, Vijay ji, Mittal mam, K K Singh ji and all administrative and supporting staff of the Institute for their support and help. I owe a lot to my classmates; Prabhat, Prakash, Siddharth, and Rajesh for their companionship, timely support and the help they willingly rendered during the study. I also need to thank all my seniors Harish sir, Abhimanyu sir, Balaji sir, Satish sir, Shiwaswamy, Rakesh sir, Vjith sir, Aarathi chechi, Anujechi, Lisechi for constantly encouraging me during entire period. I shall be ever grateful to Bhoopesh, Rishabh, Jyoti, Gourav, Jaya Prakash, Sanjay, Ankhila, Ankita, Kiran, Ujwala, Vikram, Utkarsh, Priyanka, Jobin, Ravindhra, Raghvendra, Sharath, Sunil, Biswajith, Philip for their help, support and pleasant companionship throughout my days at IARI. No words to describe the friendship and care I received from, Flemine chechi, Nishechi, Manjuchechi, Vinu chechi, Reshmechi, Sini chechi, Rejnechi, Soumyechi, Sarithechi, Shobhnachechi, Neethu, Sheetal, Jilu, Suvana, Renjith,Vinodettan, Anshi, Jesna, Beena, Soumya,Bhagya, Smruthi, Shisa, Lexmi, Leneesha, Sreeshma, Blessy and Minnu. I am grateful to PG School IARI for granting fellowship during my first year of study. I am thankful to the University Grant Commission and Ministry of Social Justice & Empowerment and Ministry of Tribal Affairs, for Rajiv Gandhi National Fellowship granted to me during my course of study. I feel proud to be a part of PG School, IARI, where I learnt a lot and spent some unforgettable moments of my life I also place on record, my sense of gratitude to one and all, who directly or indirectly, have lemt their hand in this venture Last but not least, my heartfelt thanks to my beloved parents and sister for their endless love, affection, sacrifice and constant inspiration which enabled me to reach the footsteps of my long cherished aspiration. Place: IARI Date: (Renjini V R) 5 CONTENTS Chapter Title Page 1 INTRODUCTION 1-6 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 7-25 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 26-38 4 RESULTS 39-96 5 DISCUSSION 97-107 6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 108-114 7 BIBLIOGRAPHY i-xii APPENDICES a-f 6 LIST OF TABLES Table Title Page No. Country wise distributions of agricultural trade between India and 4.1 40 ASEAN during TE 2014 4.2 Composition of Indian agricultural export to ASEAN, TE 2014 41 4.3 42 Composition of Indian agricultural import from ASEAN, TE 2014 India's agricultural Export Intensity Index (EII) and Import Intensity 4.4 43 Index (III) with ASEAN (1995-2014) Revealed Comparative Advantage: Cotton 4.5 45 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Bovine meat 4.6 45 4.7 46 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Coffee Revealed Comparative Advantage: Tea 4.8 47 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Spices 4.9 48 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Rice 4.10 49 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Marine products 4.11 50 4.12 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Fresh vegetables 50 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Fresh fruits 4.13 51 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Oilseeds 4.14 52 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Oil cake meals 4.15 53 4.16 Revealed Comparative Advantage: Tobacco 53 Tariff reduction schedule of Special products 4.17 55 4.18 Tariff commitment of AIFTA members in agricultural sector at 6 56 digits tariff line 4.19 60 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes, category 4.20 60 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes, category 4.21 61 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in products of animal origin, nes category 4.22 61 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in 7 products of animal origin, nes category 4.23 62 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers etc, category 4.24 62 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers etc, category 4.25 63 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers category 4.26 Aggregate impact of AIFTA on vegetables import from Myanmar 64 4.27 64 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers category 4.28 65 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in coffee, tea, mate and spices category 4.29 66 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in coffee, tea, mate and spice category 4.30 67 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc, nes category 4.31 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in oilseed 67 oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc, nes category 4.32 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in lac, gums, resins, 68 vegetable saps and extracts nes category 4.33 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in lac, 68 gums, resins, vegetable saps and extracts nes category 4.34 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in vegetable plaiting 69 materials, vegetable products nes category 4.35 Top countries whose trade being diverted from India in vegetable 69 plaiting materials, vegetable products nes category 4.36 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in animal, vegetable fats 70 and oils, cleavage products, etc category 4.37 Aggregate impacts on palm oil due to import from Indonesia and 70 Malaysia 4.38 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in animal, 71 8 vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc category 4.39 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in meat, fish and seafood 72 food preparations nes category 4.40 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in meat, 72 fish and seafood food preparations nes category 4.41 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in cocoa and cocoa 73 preparations category 4.42 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in cocoa 73 and cocoa preparations category 4.43 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in cereal, flour, starch, 74 milk preparations and products 4.44 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in cereal, 74 flour, starch, milk preparations and products 4.45 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in vegetable, fruit, nut, 75 etc food preparations 4.46 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in 75 vegetable, fruit, nut, etc food preparations 4.47 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in miscellaneous edible 76 preparations 4.48 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in 76 miscellaneous edible preparations category 4.49 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in residues, wastes of 77 food industry, animal fodder category 4.50 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in 77 residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder category 4.51 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in raw hides and skins 78 (other than furskins) and leather category 4.52 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in raw 78 hides and skins (other than furskins) and leather category 4.53 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in silk 79 4.54 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in silk 79 9 4.55 Trade creation and trade diversion effect in cotton 79 4.56 Top ten countries whose trade being diverted from India in cotton 80 4.57 Aggregate impact of AIFTA tariff reduction on agriculture 81 4.58 Country wise distribution of impact of AIFTA-India 83 4.59 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Cambodia 84 4.60 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Indonesia 86 4.61 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Lao 87 4.62 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Malaysia 88 4.63 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Myanmar 89 4.64 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Philippines 90 4.65 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Thailand 91 4.66 Impact on agricultural commodities exported to Vietnam 93 4.67 Aggregate impact of AIFTA tariff reduction on agriculture 95 4.68 Estimated gravity model 98 India’s agricultural trade potential with ASEAN countries 4.69 99 10