Historic, Archive Document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. aTD224 .12133 iited States Idaho apartment of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Basin Outlook Report Service February 1995 1, Basin Outlook Reports and Federal - State - Private Cooperative Snow Surveys Formore watersupply and resource managementinformation, contact: Your local Natural Resources Conservation Service Office or Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Surveys 3244 Elder Street, Room 124 Boise, ID 83705-4711 334-1614 (208) How forecasts are made Most of the annual streamflow in the Western United States originates as snowfall that has accumulated high in the mountains during winter and early spring. As the snowpack accumulates, hydrologists estimate the runoff that will occur when it melts. Predictions are based on careful measurements of snow water equivalent at selected index points. Precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and antecedent streamflow data are combined with snowpack data to prepare runoff forecasts. Streamflow forecasts are coordinated by Natural Resources Conservation Service and National Weather Service hydrologists. This report presents a comprehensive picture of water supply conditions for areas dependent upon surface runoff. It includes selected streamflow forecasts, summarized snowpack and precipitation data, reservoir storage data, and narratives describing current conditions. Snowpack data are obtained by using a combination of manual and automated SNOTEL measurement methods. Manual readings of snow depth and water equivalent are taken at locations called snow courses on a monthly or semi-monthly schedule during the winter. In addition, snow water equivalent, precipitation and temperature are monitored on a daily basis and transmitted via meteor burst telemetry to central data collection facilities. Both monthly and daily data are used to project snowmelt runoff. Forecast uncertainty originates from two sources: uncertainty of future hydrologic and (1) climatic conditions, and (2) error in the forecasting procedure. To express the uncertainty in the most probable forecast, four additional forecasts are provided. The actual streamflow can be expected to exceed the most probable forecast 50% of the time. Similarly, the actual streamflow volume can be expected to exceed the 90% forecast volume 90% of the time. The same is true for the 70%, 30%, and 10% forecasts. Generally, the 90% and 70% forecasts reflect drier than normal hydrologic and climatic conditions; the 30% and 10% forecasts reflect wetter than normal conditions. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty will become known and the additional forecasts will move closer to the most probable forecast. The United States DepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)prohibitsdiscrimination in its programsonthebasisofrace,color, national origin,sex, religion,age,disability, political beliefsandmarital orfamilial status. (Notall prohibited basesapplytoall programs). Personswith disabilities who requirealternative means forcommunication ofprogram information (braille, largeprint, audiotape, etc.) shouldcontactthe USDAOfficeof Communicationsat(202) 720-5881 (voice) or(202)720-7808(TDD). Tofileacomplaint,writetheSecretaryofAgriculture, U.S. DepartmentofAgriculture,Washington, D.C., 20250, orcall(202) 720-7327(voice) or (202)720-1127(TDD). USDA isan equalemploymentopportunityemployer. IDAHO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK REPORT FEBRUARY 1995 1, SUMMARY Southern Idaho snowpacks benefitted from the Pacific moisture that caused devastating flooding in California in early January. With snowpacks near or above average across most of the state, streamflow projections look promising for 1995. That’s good news, because a good runoff season is critical due to the lack of reservoir storage across the state. Heavy rains and warm temperatures in late January and early February caused streams to rise significantly, improving reservoir storage across the state. Two more months of normal precipitation will help ensure adequate water supplies next summer. SNOWPACK The same storm systems that caused widespread flooding in California were beneficial to southern Idaho snowpacks. Snowfall was above average in southern and central Idaho during January, and most basins are now reporting above average snowpacks for F^ruary 1. Snowpacks in northern Idaho are near average, having lost a few percentage points over the month. Heavy rains and record warm temperatures in late January and early February melted much of the low elevation snowpack, decreasing the chance of later spring flooding while improving reservoir storage in many areas. High elevation snowpacks benefitted from the precipitation, with little melt taking place. PRECIPITATION Idaho’s central and southern mountains received abundant Pacific moisture during January. SNOTEL sites in the Wood and Lost River basin reported 150% of normal precipitation for the month. The tropical flow did not extend into northern Id^o, however, where precipitation was only 75 to 80% of average. Precipitation in eastern Idaho was near average. Warm temperatures in late January brought the freezing level up to 8000 feet, and accompanying heavy rains melted most of the low elevation snowpack in the state. Temperatures were above normal for the month ofJanuary, as warm, moist tropical air streamed into Idaho from the Pacific. RESERVOIRS Reservoir storage remains below average throughout most of Idaho. Sixteen major reservoirs in the state are currently reporting a combined storage of 43% of average. With plenty of storage space available, the possibility of spring flooding is low in spite of the h^thy snowpacks throughout the state. Current indications call for most major reservoir systems to fill with the possible exception of Anderson Ranch Reservoir on the Boise. The Boise system reports less than half of normal storage; last year there was more than twice as much carryover in the system. A full irrigation supply is expected in the Boise basin, however. The lowest storage is reported in the Wood River basin, where Magic Reservoir is only 1% full. Storage in the upper Snake basin is less than half of normal for this time of year, or 27% of capacity. Conditions are better in the Payette basin where the system is half full. NRCS Note: reports reservoir information in terms of usable volumes, which includes both active, inactive, and in some cases dead storage. Other operators may report reservoir contents in different terms. For additional information, see the reservoir definitions in the back of this report. STREAMFLOW Heavy rains and warm temperatures near the end ofJanuary caused streamflows to increase dramatically statewide. The rain on snow event brought the Owyhee River to over 16,000 cfs on February 2, and even the central mountain streams responded with unusually high flows. The high elevation snowpack remains intact, however, promising good runoff when the spring snowmelt season begins. Currendy, forecasts call for 90 to 130% of average runoff statewide, with the lower volumes expected in northern Idaho, the lower Snake mainstem, and the Bear River area. Above average volumes are expected in the Payette, Wood, Lost, Henrys Fork, and Teton basins. RECREATION OUTLOOK With snowpack conditions near or above normal in Idaho’s recreational river basins, the prospects look excellent for whitewater boating this year. If the current trends continue, the possibility of high flows exists during the early part of the spring runoff, with good flows extending well into the summer. The southwestern Idaho rivers (Jarbidge, Owyhee, and Bruneau) promise one of the best seasons in the last ten years. Reservoir based recreation looks encouraging as well with most major reservoirs around the state expected to fill to capacity. roAHO SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) is a predictive indicator of surface water availability within a watershed for the spring and summer water use season. The index is calculated by combining pre-runoff reservoir storage (carryover) with forecasts of spring and summer streamflow. SWSI values are scaled from 4-4.1 (abundant supply) to -4.1 (extremely dry), with a value of zero indicating a median water supply as compart to historical occurrences. SWSI values are published January through May, and provide a more comprehensive outlook of water availability than either streamflow forecasts or reservoir storage figures alone. The SWSI index allows comparison ofwater availability between basins for drought or flood severity analysis. Threshold SWSI values have been established for most basins to indicate the potential for agricultural water shortages. The following agencies and cooperators provide assistance in the preparation of the Surface Water Supply Index for Idaho: US Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service US Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation US Department of Commerce, National Weather Service US Army Corps ofEngineers Idaho Department ofWater Resources Idaho Water Users Association PaciCorp IDAHO SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX (SWSI) As ofFebruary 1995 1, Most Recent Agricultural Water Year With Supply Shortages Basin or Similar May Occur When Region SWSI SWSI Value SWSI Is Less Than: NA Panhandle -1.2 1993 NA Clearwater 1.7 1993 NA Salmon 0.0 1993/80 NA Weiser -0.9 1989/85 NA Payette 1.7 1986/80 Boise -0.3 1993 -2.6 Big Wood •0.8 1978 -1.4 Wood Little 1.5 1993 -2.1 Big Lost 1.5 1980 -0.8 Little Lost 1.6 1986 0.0 Henrys Fork 2.6 1982 -3.3 Snake (American Falls) 1.2 1980 -2.0 Oakley 0.0 1993/82 0.0 Salmon Falls 0.9 1987 0.0 NA Bruneau 1.7 1993/80 Owyhee -1.2 1993 NA Bear River -3.8 1994 -3.8 NA - Not Applicable SWSI Scale 1.5 to 4.1 Above Normal Supply -1.5 to 1.5 Near Normal Supply -3.0 to -1.5 Below Normal Supply -4.1 to -3.0 Very Short Supply IDAHO MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK 1 FEBRUARY 1995 1. 0 25 SO 75 100 MI I I I I NATURAL RESOURCE CONSERVATION SERVICE U5. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE PANHANDLE REGION FEBRUARY 1995 1, Mountain Snowpack (inches) Mountain Precipitation PANHANDLE REGION PANHANDLE REGION >|<— ->|< CURRENT — - AVERAGE 1961-90 MONTHLY MAXIMUM P e r c e n t 0 f A V e r a g e OCT NOV DEC JAN Based on selected SNOTEL sites WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK Northern Idaho did not receive the heavy inflow of warm tropical moisture that blessed southern Idaho during January. Mountain precipitation was only 81% ofaverage for the month, bringing the water year total to 109% ofaverage. As a result, snowpack percentages decreased considerably during January and currently range from 90 to 115% of average. S^eamflow forecasts call for 94% ofaverage flow for the Spokane River this summer. Reservoir storage is variable in the large lakes in the Idaho Panhandle, ranging from 74% of average for I^e Pend Oreille to 112% for Priest Lake. Water supplies should be adequate for most uses this year, similar to the 1993 water year. C PANHANDLE REGION Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 1995 IIII11IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII «====== Drier = Future Conditions == 1 n t 1 Period 90% 70% 50% (Host Probable) 30% 10% 30-Yr Avg. | 1 { 1 (1000AF) (1000AF) (1000AF) (%AVG.) (1000AF) (1000AF) (1000AF) 1 1 1 KOOTENAI at Leonia (1,2) APR-JUN 3970 4890 5300 93 5710 6630 5701 1 APR-JUL 5080 6210 6730 93 7250 8380 7199 1 1 APR-SEP 5840 7150 7740 94 8330 9640 8275 1 1 1 1 1 i CLARK FK at Whitehorse Rpds (1,2) APR-JUN 5210 7220 8140 81 9060 11100 10050 1 1 APR-JUL 6010 8380 9450 81 10500 12900 11730 1 1 APR-SEP 6620 9220 10400 81 11600 14200 12910 1 1 1 1 1 1 PEND OREILLE Lake Inflow (1,2) APR-JUN 5850 8330 9455 83 10600 13100 11390 1 1 APR-JUL 6980 9610 10800 82 12000 14600 13150 1 1 APR-SEP 7720 10600 11900 83 13200 16100 14370 1 j 1 1 1 1 PRIEST nr Priest River (1,2) APR-JUL 530 720 805 99 890 1080 814 1 1 APR-SEP 570 770 860 99 950 1150 868 1 1 1 1 1 1 COEUR D'ALENE at Enaville APR-JUL 540 660 740 96 820 940 770 1 1 APR-SEP 475 690 770 95 850 1080 809 1 1 1 1 1 1 ST.JCK at Calder APR-JUL 880 1020 1110 95 1200 1340 1169 1 1 APR-SEP 865 1060 1160 94 1260 1460 1237 1 1 1 1 1 SPOKANE near Post Falls (2) APR-JUL 1530 2210 2470 94 2730 4130 2633 1 1 APR-SEP 1640 2290 2560 94 2830 3470 2730 1 1 1 1 1 SPOKANE at Long Lake APR-JUL 1940 2350 2632 90 2910 3330 2936 1 1 APR-SEP 2120 2550 2842 90 3130 3560 3159 1 1 1 1 PANHANDLE REGION PANHANDLE REGION 1 Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of January 1 Watershed Snowpack Analysis - February 1, 1995 Usable *** Usable Storage *** Number This Year as % of Reservoir Capacity]| This Last 1 Watershed of ======== 1 Year Year Avg Data Sites Last Yr Average 1 1 HUNGRY HORSE 3451.0 1635.0 1136.0 2362.0 Kootenai ab Bonners Ferry 24 134 100 1 ! 1 FLATHEAD LAKE 1791. 962.9 826.9 1095.0 Moyie River 2 174 84 1 1 1 NOXON RAPIDS 335.0 326.5 320.6 314.2 Priest River 4 158 115 1 1 1 PEND OREILLE 1561.3 605.8 553.6 823.1 Penc Orei1le River 74 136 97 1 1 1 COEUR D'ALENE 238.5 116.5 53.5 127.8 Rathdrum Creek 4 169 151 1 1 1 PRIEST LAKE 119.3 60.0 55.5 53.4 Hayden Lake 0 0 0 1 1 1 Coeur d'Alene River 5 146 87 1 1 1 St. Joe River 2 171 97 1 1 1 Spokane River 11 160 107 1 1 1 Palouse River 1 167 100 1 1 * 90%, 70%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual flow will exceed the volumes in the table. The average is computed for the 1961-1990 base period. (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels. (2) - The value is natural flow - actual flow may be affected by upstream water management.