How Might the Evolution of Urban Agriculture Advance Sustainable Agriculture in the Future? (A foresight study looking at food security through the lens of urban rooftop agriculture and sustainable water management.) Robert K E Mitchell Submitted to OCAD University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation Toronto, Ontario, Canada, April, 2015 Major Research Paper © Robert K E Mitchell, 2015 Declaration I hereby declare that I, Robert K E Mitchell, am the sole author of this Major Research Project (MRP). This is a true copy of the MRP, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I authorize OCAD University to lend this MRP to other institutions or individuals for the purpose of scholarly research. I understand that my MRP may be made electronically available to the public. I further authorize OCAD University to reproduce this MRP by photocopying or by other means, in total or in part, at the request of other institutions or individuals for the purpose of scholarly research. ii Abstract In order to feed the ever increasing global population without further degrading the natural environment we need to create a more sustainable food system utilizing small scale intensive (SPIN) methods of urban agricultural production. This paper looks at the history of agriculture and the current food system as a basis for understanding its future and investigates the need and conditions to create a resilient food system. Viewed through a Toronto-centric lens to better understand how implications may affect urban rooftop agriculture, this paper presents arguments for the intensification of rooftop agriculture and the decentralization of the food system. Strategic foresight is engaged to understand not only the ecological and environmental impact of the agricultural system, but also the importance of food security itself. Rooftop agriculture has the potential to add resilience to our food system while providing social, economic and environmental benefits for all Torontonians. Search Words: Rooftop Agriculture, Food Security, Urban Farming, and Resilience iii Acknowledgements Committee Members Principle Advisor, Jeremy Bowes, MARCH, AOCA, Professor: Environmental Design (ENVR) and Strategic Foresight & Innovation (SFI) Committee Advisor, Ian Clarke, AOCAD, B. Sc., Ph. D, Associate Dean: Faculty of Liberal Arts & Science (FOLAS) Jeremy Thank you for your patience, guidance and encouragement throughout this process, I never would have made it to the end without your help. Ian Thank you for your insight and clarity and for sharing a vision for rooftop agriculture. iv To Brian Thanks for all the love and support v How Might the Evolution of Urban Agriculture Advance Sustainable Agriculture in the Future? (A foresight study looking at food security through the lens of urban rooftop agriculture and sustainable water management.) Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction pg 1 2.0 Background pg 1 • 2.1 Framing the Problem pg 1 • 2.2 Assumptions and Biases pg 2 • 2.3 Research Methodology pg 3 o Literature Review pg 3 o Expert and Semi-structured Interviews pg 3 o Horizon Scan pg 4 o Case Studies pg 4 o Sense-making pg 4 • 2.4 Stakeholder Analysis pg 4 3.0 Setting the stage: pg 4 • 3.1 A Brief History of Agriculture (Era Analysis) pg 4 • 3.2 Understanding The Current Food System pg 8 o The History of the Supermarket / Corporate Interests pg 14 o Where Does Our Food Come From? pg 16 o The Ontario Food Terminal pg 17 o Going Local pg 17 o Food Miles pg 20 • 3.3 Defining Sustainable Agriculture pg 24 • 3.4 Defining Urban Agriculture pg 26 • 3.5 Building Resilience Into the System pg 28 4.0 Why Rooftop Urban Agriculture & Water Management Matters: Understanding the Big Picture. pg 31 • 4.1 Why Rooftop Agriculture? pg 31 o Social Benefits pg 31 o Health Benefits pg 32 o Economic Benefits pg 33 o Environmental Benefits pg 34 • 4.2 Water and Food Security pg 38 5.0 The Drivers of Change: Influential Forces pg 41 • Population Growth pg 41 • Globalization pg 43 • Urbanization & Migration pg 43 • Immigration pg 46 • Global Hunger: Food Insecurity & The Need For More Food pg 46 • Public Health Concerns pg 49 • Increased Global Wealth pg 51 • Socio Economic Development pg 51 vi • Environmental Concerns pg 53 o Water Depletion & Contamination pg 55 o Irrigation pg 55 o Pollution pg 56 o Soil Fertility Depletion pg 57 • Climate Change pg 58 • Expensive Oil pg 61 • Peak Everything (Oil, Water & Land) pg 61 • Education pg 65 • Changing Government Policy pg 65 • 21st Century Agro Technology pg 66 • Loss of Trust in the System pg 66 • Taste pg 67 • 5.1 Enablers pg 67 • Changing Policies pg 67 • Advances in Greenhouse Technology pg 67 • 5.2 Blockers pg 68 • Cost: High initial Investment pg 68 • Agribusiness Lobbyists pg 68 • Limited Outdoor Growing Season pg 68 • Trade Rule Restrictions (World Trade Organization (WTO) pg 68 & The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) pg 68 • Restrictive Policies pg 68 • Rooftop Access pg 68 6.0 Trends: Identifying Signals of Change pg 70 • Urbanization pg 70 • Urban Sprawl pg 72 • The Globalization of Food pg 73 • Tragedy of the Commons 2.0 pg 75 • BioElimination pg 77 • The Rising True Cost of Food pg 80 • The Rise of Food Insecurity & The Non-profit pg 82 • Declining Nutritional Health pg 84 • Nature Goes From Niche to Mainstream pg 85 • Tracking Climate Change Volatility pg 86 • The Industrialization & Chemicalization of Food pg 87 • Bigger is Better: if you want it we have it pg 88 • Convenience is King: the fast food invasion pg 90 • Circumventing Seasonality: I Want it and I Want it Now pg 91 • Waste Not Want Not pg 92 • Shifting Consumer Behavior pg 96 • The Local Food Revolution pg 98 • 21st Century Policy and Planning: Promoting Urban Ag pg 101 • New Business Models for 21st Century Food Production pg 102 • Agricultural Urbanism pg 104 • Rooftop Food Production pg 105 vii • Rooftop Competition pg 107 • DIY Food Security pg 109 • Chef as Celebrity pg 111 • Food as Science pg 112 • Techno Food Farming pg 114 • The Aging Rural Farmer pg 115 7.0 Why Rooftop Urban Agriculture in Toronto? pg 117 • 7.1 Toronto Policy Affecting Urban Agriculture & Green Roofs pg 120 • 7.2 Building Codes and Rooftop Agriculture pg 120 • 7.3 Toronto’s Green Roof By-law No. 583-2009 pg 122 • 7.4 Toronto’s Environmental Plan pg 125 8.0 Imagining Diverse Futures: Developing Scenarios pg 129 Scenario 1: Industry Hits the Roof pg 130 Scenario 2: The Green Revolution 2.0: The Rise of AgriCo pg 133 Scenario 3: Global Organic pg 137 Scenario 4: The Inspection pg 139 • 8.1 Scenario Analysis pg 144 9.0 Existing Strategies: How Torontonians Access Food pg 146 • 9.1 Current Agricultural Trends in Toronto pg 146 10.0 Approaches to Rooftop Agriculture (Farming) pg 152 • 10.1 Rooftop Practices and Methodologies pg 152 • 10.2 Container Gardens pg 153 o Case Study: University of Toronto Sky Garden (Toronto) • 10.3 Raised Bed Production pg 156 o Case Study: Fairmont Royal York Rooftop Garden (Toronto) • 10.4 Rooftop Row Farm pg 159 o Case Study: AccessPoint on the Danforth part of Access Alliance Multicultural Health and Community Services (Toronto) o Case Study: Brooklyn Grande (NYC) • 10.5 Greenhouses pg 164 • 10.6 Hydroponic Greenhouse pg 165 o Case Study: Lufa Farms (Montreal) o Case Study: Gotham Greens (NYC) 11.0 The Future of Rooftop Urban Agriculture in Toronto: pg 169 • 11.1 Identifying barriers and opportunities pg 169 o Barriers o Opportunities • 11.2 Future innovations pg 170 • Hard Solutions pg 171 viii Recommendations • Soft Solutions pg 172 Recommendations • Organizational Solutions pg 174 Recommendations 12.0 Conclusion pg 178 ix Bibliography pg 180 Appendix A: Glossary pg 197 Appendix B: List of Acronyms and Abbreviations pg 202 Appendix C: Principles of Sustainable Agriculture pg 205 Appendix D: The effects of Irrigation on the Ogallala Aquifer & the Aral Sea pg 206 Appendix E: The Ten Principles of Agricultural Urbanism pg 209 Appendix F: The History of Toronto Policy Effecting Urban Agriculture pg 210 Appendix G: Toronto’s Green Roofs and Green Standard: Background pg 218 Appendix H: Recommended in Section 39 of the Toronto Environmental Plan pg 224 Appendix I: Case Study Details pg 225 Appendix J: Typical Components of a Green Roof pg 236 Appendix K: Agricultural System Maps pg 237 x