HOW ENEMIES BECOME FRIENDS 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd ii 1111//1188//22000099 1100::4499::3377 AAMM PRINCETON STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL HISTORY AND POLITICS G. John Ikenberry and Marc Trachtenberg, SERIES EDITORS Recent Titles How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace by Charles A. Kupchan 1989: The Struggle to Create Post–Cold War Europe by Mary Elise Sarotte The Struggle for Power in Early Modern Europe: Religious Confl ict, Dynastic Empires, and International Change by Daniel H. Nexon Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Confl ict in China’s Territorial Disputes by M. Taylor Fravel The Sino-Soviet Split: Cold War in the Communist World by Lorenz M. Lüthi Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East by Etel Solingen Social States: China in International Institutions, 1980–2000 by Alastair Iain Johnston Appeasing Bankers: Financial Caution on the Road to War by Jonathan Kirshner The Politics of Secularism in International Relations by Elizabeth Shakman Hurd Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power by Randall L. Schweller Producing Security: Multinational Corporations, Globalization, and the Changing Calculus of Confl ict by Stephen G. Brooks Driving the Soviets up the Wall: Soviet–East German Relations, 1953–1961 by Hope M. Harrison Legitimacy and Power Politics: The American and French Revolutions in International Political Culture by Mlada Bukovansky Rhetoric and Reality in Air Warfare: The Evolution of British and American Ideas about Strategic Bombing, 1914–1945 by Tami Davis Biddle Revolutions in Sovereignty: How Ideas Shaped Modern International Relations by Daniel Philpott 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd iiii 1111//1188//22000099 1100::4499::3388 AAMM HOW ENEMIES BECOME FRIENDS THE SOURCES OF STABLE PEACE Charles A. Kupchan A Council on Foreign Relations Book PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd iiiiii 1111//1188//22000099 1100::4499::3388 AAMM Copyright © 2010 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kupchan, Charles. How enemies become friends : the sources of stable peace / Charles A. Kupchan. p. cm. — (Princeton studies in international history and politics) (Council on foreign relations book) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-14265-4 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Peaceful change (International relations) 2. Peace-building. 3. International relations—21st century. 4. World politics—21st century. 5. National security. 6. Balance of power. I. Title. JZ5538.K87 2010 303.6’6—dc22 2009024769 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government offi cials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government offi cials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both fi ndings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional position on policy issues and has no affi lia- tion with the U.S. government. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in its pub- lications are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. This book has been composed in Times New Roman Printed on acid-free paper. ∞ press.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd iivv 1111//1188//22000099 1100::4499::3388 AAMM For Nicholas and his generation May they know only peace 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd vv 1111//1188//22000099 1100::4499::3388 AAMM This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS List of Illustrations ix Acknowledgments xi CHAPTER ONE Stable Peace 1 CHAPTER TWO From International Anarchy to International Society 16 CHAPTER THREE Anglo-American Rapprochement 73 CHAPTER FOUR Rapprochement: Supporting Cases 112 CHAPTER FIVE Security Community 183 CHAPTER SIX Union 284 CHAPTER SEVEN Making Friends and Choosing Friends 389 Bibliography 415 Index 431 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd vviiii 1111//1188//22000099 1100::4499::3399 AAMM This page intentionally left blank ILLUSTRATIONS FIGURES 2.1 The Logics of International Politics, International Society, and National Politics 18 2.2 Types of Stable Peace and Defi ning Characteristics 32 2.3 Stable Peace: Four Phases of Onset 36 2.4 The Sequential Pathway to Stable Peace 37 2.5 Causal Conditions for Stable Peace 54 4.1 Rapprochement: Summary of Findings 181 5.1 Security Community: Summary of Findings 280 6.1 Union: Summary of Findings 387 MAPS 5.1 Malaysia 221 5.2 The Gulf Cooperation Council 257 6.1 The Swiss Confederation 289 6.2 The Iroquois Confederation 309 6.3 The United Arab Emirates 325 6.4 Senegal and Gambia 353 TABLE 1.1 Case Studies 12 0000--KKuuppcchhaann ii--xxvvii..iinndddd iixx 1111//3300//22000099 11::1100::3311 PPMM