Housing Archetype Analysis for Home Energy-Efficient Retrofit in the Great Lakes Region S.-K. Kim, T. Mrozowski, A. Harrell-Seyburn, N. Ehrlich, L. Hembroff, B. Lieburn, M. Mazor, A. McIntyre, C. Mutton, G. Parsons, M.G. Syal, and R. Wilkinson Cost Effective Energy Retrofit (CEER) September 2014 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, subcontractors, or affiliated partners makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm Housing Archetype Analysis for Home Energy-Efficient Retrofit in the Great Lakes Region Prepared for: The National Renewable Energy Laboratory On behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building America Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, CO 80401 NREL Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Prepared by: S.-K. Kim, T. Mrozowski, A. Harrell-Seyburn, N. Ehrlich, L. Hembroff, B. Lieburn, M. Mazor, A. McIntyre, C. Mutton, G. Parsons, M.G. Syal, and R. Wilkinson Cost Effective Energy Retrofit Team 200 Larkin Center, 1605 Joseph Drive Midland, MI 48674 NREL Technical Monitor: Michael Gestwick Prepared under Subcontract No. KNDJ-0-40347-02 September 2014 iii The work presented in this report does not represent performance of any product relative to regulated minimum efficiency requirements. The laboratory and/or field sites used for this work are not certified rating test facilities. The conditions and methods under which products were characterized for this work differ from standard rating conditions, as described. Because the methods and conditions differ, the reported results are not comparable to rated product performance and should only be used to estimate performance under the measured conditions. iv Contents List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ viii Definitions ................................................................................................................................................... ix 1 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Background ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 Prior Research ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Benefits and Cost Effectiveness ....................................................................................................... 4 2 Experiment ............................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Research Methods Overview ........................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Research Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Research Steps, Measurements, and Processes ................................................................................ 6 2.3.1 Collect and Analyze Regional Data .................................................................................... 6 2.3.2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................... 6 2.3.3 Development of a Taxonomy of Architectural Styles of Michigan Houses ....................... 6 2.3.4 Housing Data Analysis ....................................................................................................... 6 2.3.5 Development of the Ann Arbor, Michigan Case Study ...................................................... 7 2.3.6 Investigation of Historical and Social Background ............................................................ 7 2.3.7 Meetings With Local Housing Experts ............................................................................... 7 2.3.8 Review of Public Information ............................................................................................. 7 2.3.9 Site Visits of Neighborhoods .............................................................................................. 8 2.3.10 Analysis of Real Estate Source (Zillow.com) ..................................................................... 8 2.3.11 Identification of Prevalent Archetypes for the Local Housing Stock Estimation—Review and Analysis of Archival Documents ................................................................................. 8 2.3.12 Development of a Local Market Characterization Framework........................................... 8 2.3.13 Field Test the Framework and Identify Prevalent Archetypes for Building America Energy Retrofit Research in Grand Rapids ......................................................................... 9 2.3.14 Revise and Document the Final Framework for Characterizing a Local Market for Energy Retrofit ................................................................................................................................ 9 2.3.15 Final Reporting ................................................................................................................... 9 3 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 10 3.1 Housing Data Analysis: 2009 American Housing Survey ............................................................. 10 3.1.1 About the Sample .............................................................................................................. 10 3.1.2 Analysis and Results ......................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Taxonomy of Architectural Styles of Michigan Houses ................................................................ 20 3.2.1 Process and Data Sources to Create the Housing Style Taxonomy .................................. 20 3.2.2 Definition of Housing Styles ............................................................................................ 20 3.2.3 Architectural Style Taxonomy of American Houses ........................................................ 20 3.2.4 Architectural Style Taxonomy of Michigan Houses ......................................................... 21 3.2.5 General Characteristics of Common Housing Styles in the Midwest ............................... 26 3.3 Local Case Studies—Michigan ...................................................................................................... 26 3.3.1 Housing Market Analysis—Midwest and Michigan ........................................................ 26 3.3.2 Case Study—Ann Arbor, Michigan .................................................................................. 30 3.4 Local Market Characterization Framework ................................................................................... 37 3.5 Case Study in Grand Rapids, Michigan ......................................................................................... 39 3.5.1 Case Study—Grand Rapids .............................................................................................. 39 3.5.2 The City of Grand Rapids Historical Context ................................................................... 39 3.6 Review of the Characterization Framework .................................................................................. 44 4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 46 v Appendix A: Relevant Publications ........................................................................................................ 58 Appendix B: Initial Taxonomy ................................................................................................................. 62 Appendix C: Taxonomy of Architectural Styles of Michigan Houses ................................................. 64 Appendix D: Analysis of the Intensive Housing Survey Report .......................................................... 91 Appendix E: Analysis of Size of Homes in Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids ....................................... 109 Appendix F: Profile of U.S. Housing Stock Overall, by Region .......................................................... 111 Appendix G: Multiple and Logistic Regression Models To Show Relationships Between Monthly Energy Bill and Housing Variables ................................................................................................. 112 vi List of Figures Figure 1. Prototype of Greek Revival ...................................................................................................... 22 Figure 2. A variation of Greek Revival .................................................................................................... 22 Figure 3. A variation of Greek Revival .................................................................................................... 22 Figure 4. Prototype of a Ranch style house ........................................................................................... 23 Figure 5. Example of a Ranch style house ............................................................................................. 23 Figure 6. Construction eras of existing homes...................................................................................... 30 Figure 7. Examples of “Charmers” in Ann Arbor .................................................................................. 32 Figure 8. Examples of “Southwest Quadrant Ranches” in Ann Arbor ................................................ 32 Figure 9. Framework to determine prevalent archetypes ..................................................................... 38 Figure 10. City of Grand Rapids and neighborhoods for CEER site visits in Grand Rapids ............ 39 Figure 11. Site 1—neighborhood view .................................................................................................... 41 Figure 12. Ranch built in the 1950s ......................................................................................................... 43 Figure 13. Ranch built after the 1960s .................................................................................................... 43 Figure 14. Ranch built after the 1960s .................................................................................................... 43 Figure 15. Two-story house built in the 1910s ....................................................................................... 43 Figure 16. Two-story house built in the 1930s ....................................................................................... 43 Figure 17. Two-story house built in the 1930s ....................................................................................... 43 Figure 18. Construction eras of current U.S. housing stock ................................................................ 46 Figure 19. Dutch Colonial style house 1 ................................................................................................. 64 Figure 20. Dutch Colonial style house 2 ................................................................................................. 64 Figure 21. A house reflecting main features of Spanish Colonial style .............................................. 65 Figure 22. A house reflecting main features of Georgian style ............................................................ 66 Figure 23. German Colonial style house ................................................................................................ 66 Figure 24. A house reflecting New England Colonial style .................................................................. 67 Figure 25. Federal and Adam style house .............................................................................................. 68 Figure 26. Greek Revival style house ..................................................................................................... 69 Figure 27. Gothic Revival style house .................................................................................................... 70 Figure 28. Italianate style house 1 ........................................................................................................... 70 Figure 29. Italianate style house 2 ........................................................................................................... 71 Figure 30. Second Empire style house ................................................................................................... 72 Figure 31. Stick style house ..................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 32. Queen Anne Style house ........................................................................................................ 73 Figure 33. Eastlake house ........................................................................................................................ 73 Figure 34. Shingle style house 1 ............................................................................................................. 74 Figure 35. Shingle style house 2 ............................................................................................................. 74 Figure 36. Richardsonian-Romanesque house...................................................................................... 75 Figure 37. Folk Victorian style house/ 0654 ........................................................................................... 75 Figure 38. Colonial Revival style house ................................................................................................. 77 Figure 39. Cape Code style house .......................................................................................................... 77 Figure 40. Neoclassical style house ....................................................................................................... 78 Figure 41. Tudor Revival style house 1 .................................................................................................. 78 Figure 42. Tudor Revival style house 2 .................................................................................................. 79 Figure 43. Beaux Arts style house .......................................................................................................... 79 Figure 44. A house reflecting main features of French Normandy style ............................................ 80 Figure 45. French Provincial style house (Modern Interpretation) ...................................................... 80 Figure 46. French Eclectic style house ................................................................................................... 81 Figure 47. Renaissance Revival house ................................................................................................... 82 Figure 48. Prairie style house .................................................................................................................. 82 Figure 49. Craftsman style house 1 ........................................................................................................ 83 Figure 50. Craftsman style house 2 ........................................................................................................ 83 Figure 51. Bungalow style house ............................................................................................................ 84 Figure 52. American Four Square style house 1 ................................................................................... 84 Figure 53. American Four Square style house 2 ................................................................................... 85 vii Figure 54. Art Moderne style house ........................................................................................................ 85 Figure 55. Modern interpretation of the International Style house ...................................................... 86 Figure 56. Bauhaus style house .............................................................................................................. 86 Figure 57. Ranch style house 1 ............................................................................................................... 87 Figure 58. Ranch style house 2 ............................................................................................................... 88 Figure 59. Raised Ranch style house ..................................................................................................... 88 Figure 60. Split-level ranch style house 1 .............................................................................................. 89 Figure 61. Split-level ranch style house 2 .............................................................................................. 89 Figure 62. Contemporary style house 1 .................................................................................................. 89 Figure 63. Contemporary style house 2 .................................................................................................. 90 Figure 64. Neo-Colonial style house ....................................................................................................... 90 Unless otherwise indicated, all figures were created by CEER. List of Tables Table 1. Profile of Single-Family Housing Types Overall, by Regions ................................................ 13 Table 2. Major Types of Houses in the Midwest .................................................................................... 15 Table 3. Variables for the AHS Analysis ................................................................................................. 16 Table 4. Significant Variables To Determine Housing Energy Consumption in the Midwest ........... 18 Table 5. Architectural Styles of Michigan Houses ................................................................................. 24 Table 6. Common Styles and Periods of Michigan Houses .................................................................. 26 Table 7. Selected Characteristics of Housing Stock in the Target Areas ........................................... 28 Table 8. Distribution of Recently Sold Homes Ann Arbor .................................................................... 33 Table 9. Significant Variables for the Logistic Regression Models ..................................................... 34 Table 10. Examples of Prevalent Housing Archetypes in Ann Arbor .................................................. 35 Table 11. Prevalent Housing Archetypes That Need More Energy Efficiency .................................... 37 Table 12. Distribution of Recently Sold Homes Grand Rapids ............................................................ 42 Table 13. Summary of Research Activities and the Process of Case Studies in Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids ...................................................................................................................................... 45 Table 14. Prevalent Housing Archetypes That Need More Energy Efficiency .................................... 48 Table 15. Proposed Framework for Future Implementation ................................................................. 49 Table 16. Characteristics for Selecting Prevalent Housing Archetypes ............................................. 50 Table 17. A Summary of Research Publications Relevant to Energy-Efficient Retrofit .................... 58 Table 18. Architectural Styles of American Houses .............................................................................. 62 Table 19. Frequency of Housing Styles From the Intensive Housing Survey Report ....................... 92 Table 20. Ann Arbor Featured Homes and General Characteristics From the Intensive Housing Survey .................................................................................................................................................. 93 Table 21. Housing Intensive Survey Data ............................................................................................... 99 Table 22. Analysis of Size of Homes in Ann Arbor .............................................................................. 109 Table 23. Analysis of Size of Homes in Grand Rapids ........................................................................ 110 Table 24. Profile of U.S. Housing Stock Overall, by Region ............................................................... 111 Table 25. Multiple Regression Model (Midwest Only) ......................................................................... 112 Table 26. Logistic Regression Model (Midwest Only) ......................................................................... 113 Unless otherwise indicated, all tables were created by CEER. viii Definitions AHS American Housing Survey BA Building America BEopt™ Building Energy Optimization software CEER Team Cost Effective Energy Retrofit Team DOE U.S. Department of Energy ft2 Square feet HVAC Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning MEB Monthly energy bill NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory OSR Office of Survey Research at Michigan State University ix Executive Summary This project report details activities and results of the “Housing Archetype Analysis for Home Energy-Efficient Retrofit in the Great Lakes Region” project undertaken by The Cost Effective Energy Retrofit (CEER) team targeted toward the U.S. Department of Energy goal of achieving 30%–50% reduction in existing building energy use. CEER consists of members from the Dow Chemical Company, School of Planning, Design, & Construction at Michigan State University, Ferris State University, and Habitat for Humanity Kent County. The purpose of this project was to identify housing archetypes that are prevalent within the Great Lakes region and therefore offer significant potential for energy-efficient retrofit research and implementation due to the substantial number of homes possessing similar characteristics. Understanding the characteristics of housing groups referred to as “archetypes” by vintage, style, and construction characteristics can allow research teams to focus their retrofit research and develop prescriptive solutions for those structure types that are prevalent in a region or market with an end goal of accelerating adoption. Key research activities included literature review, statistical analysis of national and regional data of the American Housing Survey (AHS) collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, analysis of Michigan-specific data, development of a housing taxonomy of architectural styles, case studies of two local markets (i.e., Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids in Michigan) and development of a suggested framework for characterizing local markets. In order to gain a high level perspective, national and regional data from the U.S. Census Bureau were analyzed using cross tabulations, multiple regression models, and logistic regression to characterize the housing stock and determine prevalent house types using 21 variables. The data analysis identified 36 classification categories by date range, size and number of stories. Monthly energy cost data from the AHS were also correlated with housing characteristics. From this analysis housing sets with high potential for retrofit were identified based on prevalence and monthly energy bill. Since energy retrofit is ultimately conducted at the local level, the CEER team examined census data for Michigan and other Great Lakes states as well as conducted local city case studies of Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids. This was done in order to understand how local markets may or may not match regional or national data. Available public information was viewed, input from housing experts was obtained, and market site visits were conducted. A housing taxonomy of architectural styles/features was developed and used to describe the local markets. Lastly, a framework was developed that can be useful to researchers or policy makers in determining high value housing archetypes for energy retrofit research, energy retrofit programs, or business market focus at a local level. x