Holding Fire: Security Force Allegiance During Nonviolent Uprisings A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy By ANIKA LOCKE BINNENDIJK In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy AUGUST 2009 Dissertation Committee Professor Richard Shultz, Chair Professor William Martel Professor Kurt Schock UMI Number: 3390129 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI 3390129 Copyright 2010 by ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346 ANIKA LOCKE BINNENDIJK [email protected] ♦ (617) 894-4839 EDUCATION The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy Tufts University Medford, MA • Dissertation examines security force responses to civic movements in Ukraine and Serbia. August 2009 • 2007-2008 Peace Scholar Dissertation Fellowship, United States Institute of Peace. The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University Medford, MA • Master of Arts in Law & Diplomacy May 2006 • Concentration: International Security Studies, International Relations, US Diplomatic History. • Recipient of the 2006 Edmund A. Gullion Prize for outstanding academic achievement. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University Princeton, NJ A.B. cum laude May 2003 • Certificate in Contemporary European Politics and Society. • Study abroad: Hertford College, Oxford University. • French proficiency. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Department of Defense Washington, DC Special Assistant May 2009-Present • Advise and assist the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. Barack Obama 2008 Presidential Campaign Washington, DC Assistant to Secretary Richard Danzig, Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Feb-Nov 2008 • Provided research and analysis on relevant national security issues • Prepared briefing material for campaign travel, public appearances, and media engagements. FORTUNE Global Forum New York, NY; New Delhi, India Program Manager Feb-Nov 2007 • Developed program content and coordinated executive speakers for 2007 Fortune Global Forum. Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) Cambridge, MA Research Associate Jul 2003; May 2004; Sept 2006-Jan 2007 • Drafted paper on coordination of international responses to humanitarian disasters. • Assisted with project on US military bases in Europe. • Contributed to publication on defense reforms and military modernization in Southeastern Europe. NATO Parliamentary Assembly Brussels, Belgium Research Assistant Sept-Nov 2003; Jun 2004 • Contributed to reports and speeches on transatlantic security issues. • Prepared, staffed, and reported on Assembly’s plenary session. National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) Washington, DC Intern Jan-Apr 2004 • Tracked political developments in Central and Eastern Europe. • Drafted and edited reports and grant proposals. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Washington, DC Intern Jul-Aug 2002 • Aided staff members with preparation for hearings on Iraq. • Assisted with analysis of Administration testimony on the US-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty. Institute for National Strategic Studies Washington, DC Assistant to Ambassador Robert Oakley Jun-Aug 2000 • Researched US peacekeeping operations and interagency coordination. FELLOWSHIPS/AWARDS Truman National Security Project, Truman Security Fellowship. (2009) United States Institute of Peace, Peace Scholar Dissertation Fellowship. (2007-2008) Women in International Securituy, 2008 Summer Symposium, awarded “Best Paper.” (Jun 2008) 2006 Global Leadership Seminar, Talloires, International graduate student seminar. (Sept 2006) Program on Negotiation, Harvard Law School, Summer Fellowship. (2006) H.B. Earhart Foundation. Fellowship (2006-2007) Tufts University, Trustee Scholarship, Tufts University. (2004-2006) Humanity in Action, Senior Fellow. (2002-Present) The Center for International Studies, Chair, CIS Undergraduate Fellows. (2003) ARTICLES/PUBLICATIONS “The Mariyinsky Palace Negotiations: Maintaining Peace Throughout Ukraine’s Orange Revolution.” Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School” 2007. [Jason Campbell, with Anika Binnendijk and Andrew Wilson] Binnendijk, Anika and Marovic, Ivan. “Power and Persuasion: Nonviolent Strategies to Influence State Security Forces in Serbia (2000) and Ukraine (2004)” Communist and Post-Communist Studies September 2006. “Extending the Preemption Debate: A Reassessment of Current Theory and Practice” and “Extending the Preemption Debate: Analysis of Major Themes.” The Fletcher School website, October 2004. Defense Reform, Modernization, & Military Cooperation in Southeastern Europe. Edited By Charles M. Perry and Dimitris Keridis. (Herndon, VA: Brassey’s 2004.) [Contributor] Binnendijk, Anika and Binnendijk, Hans, “Mending NATO: How to Save the Alliance” International Herald Tribune May 13, 2003. Dedicated to Nat Hoopes, with love and gratitude. Abstract This study examines strategies employed during recent episodes of popular nonviolent struggle to determine their influence on allegiances within police, military, and intelligence forces. Case study analysis traces challenger actions and security force decisions through one central episode in Serbia (2000) and then turns to two earlier Serbian episodes (1991 and 1996/1997) where challengers’ efforts failed. Similarly, a central successful episode in Ukraine (2004) is examined in light of an earlier effort. (2000/2001.) Episodes of protest in four additional countries – Georgia, Belarus, Kyrgzystan, and Uzbekistan – provide further variation. Data gathered through extensive interviews with participants and observers as well as written accounts is used to track the timing and nature of loyalty shifts over the course of each episode. The study proposes a novel framework linking challenger efforts to loyalty shifts within regime security forces. Highlighting counterinsurgency theory’s emphasis on the struggle for relative legitimacy, the study argues that challengers able to establish their own legitimacy and expose regime illegitimacy will be more effective in eliciting loyalty shifts than those who do not. Utilitarian considerations are also examined. The study proposes that success in eliciting loyalty shifts will additionally be influenced by the ability to raise the costs of repression, mitigate the costs to security forces of shifting alliegances, and bolster perceptions of the opposition’s prospects of replacing the exising regime. Through the lens of a challenger’s strategy, these might be seen as “strategic objectives” that, if fulfilled, alter the environment in which members of security forces make decisions about their allegiances. Analysis of the cases reveals that while perceived likelihood of assuming power was the strongest determinant of large-scale loyalty shifts, each of the proposed “strategic objectives” proved relevant over the longer course of the episodes. Further, challenger actions played a critical role in influencing security force decisions. In particular, challengers’ ability to mobilize new segments of society, maintain internal nonviolent discipline, and build and leverage channels of communication with security forces are highlighted as particularly significant. Introduction The Significance of Security Force Allegiance....................................................................……….1 Nonviolent Uprisings..........................................................................................……….....…..……3 Security Forces During the Colored Revolutions…………………………………………………..5 Cases and Methods.................................................…...................……………...............….....……6 Defining and Observing Allegiance……………………………………………………..………...11 Strategy and Security Force Allegiance.....................................................................…............…..13 Chapter One: Theory Section One: General Overview...............................................……………………………….…………..19 Literature on Internal War…………………………………………………………...…………….19 Literature on Rational Choice……………………………………………………….………….....22 Literature on Cognitive Constraints: Prospect Theory and Perception Bias……….………..….....24 Literature on Strategic Nonviolent Conflict…………………………………......………………...27 Section Two: Five Strategic Objectives and Theoretical Foundations………………….………..…….30 Strategic Objective I: Expose Regime Illegitimacy................ …………………….……………...30 Strategic Objective II: Establish Challenger Legitimacy.................................…….……………...35 Strategic Objective III: Raise the Costs of Repression................................……….……………...40 Strategic Objective IV: Mitigate the Costs of Accommodation....................…………………..…47 Strategic Objective V: Demonstrate Likelihood of Success………………………………………52 Summary: Five Strategic Objectives...............................................................….………………...59 Chapter Two: Serbia Introduction............................................................................................................…….…....................….61 Security Forces: Background...........................................................................................……..….......…..63 Interior Ministry............................................................................................................…...…..…..66 Ministry of Defense............................................................................……………………...……..66 State Security (SDB) and Unit for Special Operations (JSO).............................................…........69 Autumn 2000.......................................................................................................……….....................…….70 Security Forces: Behaviors and Decisions………………………………………………………………….71 Interior Ministry………………..………………………………………………………………….71 Ministry of Defense……………………………………………………………………………….80 State Security and Unit for Special Operations………………………………………....…......….85 Assessment of Strategic Objectives.........................................................................…………….…….........87 Strategic Objective I: Expose Regime Illegitimacy...............................................................…….86 Strategic Objective II: Demonstrate Challenger Legitimacy……………………………………..93 Strategic Objective III: Raise the of Repression………………………………………………...102 Strategic Objective IV: Mitigate the Costs of Accommodation.....................................….…….109 Strategic Objective V: Demonstrate Likelihood of Success.........................................…...….…115 Secondary Cases: March 1991 and December 1996-March 1997...........................................……….123 March 1991.............................................................................................................................….…..……113 Exposing Regime Illegitimacy............................................................................................….…115 Demonstrating Opposition Legitimacy...............................................................................…….127 Mitigating Costs of Accommodation…………………………………………………………...130 Raising Costs of Repression……………………………………………………………………133 Demonstrating Likelihood of Success………………………………………………………….135 December 1996- March 1997……………………………………………………………………………136 Exposing Regime Illegitimacy…………………………………………………………………140 Establishing Challenger Legitimacy…………………………………………………………...142 Raising the Costs of Repression………………………………………………………………..146 Mitigating the Cost of Accommodation………………………………………………………..149 Demonstrating Likelihood of Success………………………………………………………….150 Conclusion: Lessons Learned………………………………………………………………………….153 Chapter Three: Ukraine Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………..157 Security Forces: Background……………………………………………………………………..……160 Interior Ministry………………………………………………………………………………...160 Ministry of Defense…………………………………………………………………………….163 State Security: Sluzhba Bespeky Ukrayiny (SBU)……………………………………………..165 2004: The Orange Revolution………………………………………………………………………….166 Security Forces: Behaviors and Decisions……………………………………………………………….168 Interior Ministry………………………………………………………………………………...170 Ministry of Defense…………………………………………………………………………….176 Intelligence: SBU………………………………………………………………………………178 The Night of November 28th………….……………………………………………………….182 Assessment of Strategic Objectives………………………………………………………………………186 Strategic Objective I: Expose Regime Illegitimacy…………………………………………….187 Strategic Objective II: Establish Challenger Legitimacy………………………………….……195 Strategic Objective III: Raise the Costs of Repression...........………………………………….203 Strategic Objective IV: Mitigate Costs of Accommodation..........……………………………..212 Strategic Objective V: Demonstrate Likelihood of Success..............…………………………..220 Secondary case: Ukraine Without Kuchma (2001).................................................…….........……….226 Exposing Regime Illegitimacy.............................................................................................……232 Establishing Challenger Legitimacy...................................................................................…….234 Raising Costs of Repression.……................................................................................................239 Mitigating Costs of Accommodation……………………………………………………….…..242 Demonstrating Likelihood of Success……………........………………………………………..245 Conclusion: Lessons Learned.…………………………………………………………………………..247 Chapter Four: Analysis and Additional Episodes Section One: Conclusions from Serbia and Ukraine………………………………………………..250 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………250 Regime Legitimacy……………………………………………………………………………252 Challenger Legitimacy………………………………………………………………………...255 Costs of Repression.…………………………………………………………………………...258 Costs of Accommodation……………………………………………………………………...262 Likelihood of Success…………………………………………………………………………265 Implementing the Strategic Objectives……………………………………………………………….267 Attract and Engage New Constituencies……………………………………………………....268 Maintain Nonviolent Discipline……………………………………………………………….268 Expand Capacity for Rapid Mass Mobilization……………………………………………….269 Develop Strategic Communications…………………………………………………………...270 Expand Informal Channels of Communication………………………………………………..271 Cultivate and Leverage External Support……………………………………………………...272 Section Two: Additional Episodes…………………………………………………………………….273 Georgia...................................................................................................................................…274 Kyrgyzstan............................................................................................................................….284 Belarus..................................................................................................................................…..296 Uzbekistan.............................................................................................................................….308 Conclusion..............................................................................................................................…319 Conclusion: Policy implications and avenues for further research…………………………………...324 Sources and Works Cited…………………………..…………………………………………………….333 INTRODUCTION This study examines strategies employed during recent episodes of unarmed insurrection to assess their impact on the decisions and actions of police, military, and intelligence forces. Reviewing successful and failed movements in Ukraine, Serbia, and four additional post-communist episodes, it offers a systematic assessment of how variations in the strategic and tactical actions of challenger groups influence the decisions of individuals in regime security forces to defect or remain loyal in the face of political crisis. The Significance of Security Force Allegiance In any government, security forces fulfill a critical role by providing for public order and the safety of a population. For non-democratic regimes, police, military, and intelligence institutions often serve as instruments of coercion and are capable of applying potentially devastating sanctions against challengers and dissidents. Robert Dahl noted in 1973 that ‘‘the likelihood that a government will tolerate an opposition increases…with a reduction in the capacity of the government to use violence or socio- economic sanctions to suppress an opposition.’’ 1 Regimes that rely on coercion to maintain power are particularly dependent on the loyalty and reliability of their forces. Ted Robert Gurr highlights this relationship, postulating that “regime coercive control varies strongly with the loyalty of coercive forces to the regime.” Gurr concludes that “maximum coercive control is likely to require maximum loyalty in both scope and degree.”2 Mancur Olson similarly emphasizes the 1 Robert Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971) 49. 2 Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970) 251. 1