Heuristic Economic Assessment of the Afghanistan Construction Materials Sector—Cement and Dimension Stone Production Open-File Report 2014–1208 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey COVER Photograph of a marble fabricator, 2011, Herat, Afghanistan (U.S. Geological Survey photograph by Victor Mossotti). Heuristic Economic Assessment of the Afghanistan Construction Materials Sector—Cement and Dimension Stone Production By Victor G. Mossotti Open-File Report 2014–1208 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2014 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Suggested citation: Mossotti, V.G., 2014, Heuristic economic assessment of the Afghanistan construction materials sector—Cement and dimension stone production: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014–1208, 114 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141208. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. ISSN 2331-1258 (online) ii Contents Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Availability and Uses of Domestic Nonfuel Industrial Minerals ....................................................................................... 4 Framework for Subsector Appraisal ............................................................................................................................... 5 Value Chain ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Supply Chain .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 General Structure.................................................................................................................................................... 7 Enterprise Responsibilities ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Domestic Demand for Construction Materials .............................................................................................................. 10 Domestic Manufacturing of Construction Materials ...................................................................................................... 13 Clay for Residential Construction ............................................................................................................................. 13 Domestic Concrete Production ................................................................................................................................. 15 Sand and Gravel for Making Concrete .................................................................................................................. 16 Cement for Making Concrete ................................................................................................................................ 18 Basic Cement Chemistry ................................................................................................................................... 19 Afghan Cement Factories .................................................................................................................................. 20 Raw Materials ................................................................................................................................................... 24 Limestone for Making Cement ....................................................................................................................... 25 Clay, Bauxite, Gypsum for Making Cement ................................................................................................... 26 Infrastructure and Use of Natural Gas for Cement Production .......................................................................... 26 Water Requirements for Making Cement ....................................................................................................... 26 Electrical Energy for Making Cement ............................................................................................................ 27 Thermal Energy for Making Cement .............................................................................................................. 28 Domestic Supply and Demand for Electrical and Thermal Energy .................................................................... 29 Feasibility—Natural Gas for Pyroprocessing and for Electric Power ............................................................. 36 Dimension Stone ...................................................................................................................................................... 38 Sandstone and Quartzite ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Granite .................................................................................................................................................................. 39 Slate...................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Limestone ............................................................................................................................................................. 41 Travertine .............................................................................................................................................................. 41 Marble ................................................................................................................................................................... 44 Discussion and Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Comments on the Technical Feasibility of NG-to-Thermal and NG-to-Electrical Use in Cement Production ............ 54 Comments on Construction Material Subsectors—Adobe Clay, Limestone, Clay (Limestone Shale), Bauxite, Gypsum, and Aggregate ........................................................................................................................................... 54 Closing Comments ....................................................................................................................................................... 55 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................................ 55 References Cited ......................................................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix 1—Deposit Models ....................................................................................................................................... 64 Limestone [Cement Grade] ...................................................................................................................................... 64 Cement Shale ........................................................................................................................................................... 65 Marble [Dimension Stone] ........................................................................................................................................ 67 Appendix 2—Performance Standards for Cement ....................................................................................................... 70 Appendix 3—Performance Standards for Ready-Mixed Concrete 9 (from ASTM, 2010) ............................................. 72 Appendix 4–Afghanistan Geological Survey Archival Studies on Cement Raw Materials ............................................ 73 Appendix 5–Afghanistan Electrical-Grid Structure Diagrams ....................................................................................... 79 Figures 1. Map of Afghanistan showing locations of areas of interest for industrial minerals ..................................... 5 2. Illustration showing a schematic representation of a hypothetical value chain showing Venn sets of supply and demand attributes ................................................................................................................... 7 3. Illustration showing an example supply chain network for Afghanistan. .................................................... 8 4. Illustration showing the interrelations of enterprise responsibility centers and communications links. ...... 9 5. Illustration showing flow of funds to the Afghanistan Irrigation-Restoration and Development Project and to related shovel-ready projects ....................................................................................................... 11 6. Illustration of hypothetical value-chain and demand-profile for project structure represented in figure 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 12 7. Photograph of a village built of adobe brick in the Hari River Valley west of Chesht-e-Sharif, Herat Province, Afghanistan ............................................................................................................................. 13 8. Photograph of a mud-brick structure with deferred maintenance, Kabul, Afghanistan ............................ 14 9. Illustration of the value chain for the sun-dried and baked brick subsector in Afghanistan ..................... 15 10. Illustration of the value chain for domestic Afghan production of sorted and washed aggregate showing heuristically estimated relative supply and demand profiles...................................................... 17 11. Map of Afghanistan showing geologically permissive tracts for limestone, gypsum, and bauxite and locations for current and potential cement factories ................................................................................ 18 12. Illustration showing relations in the allocation of free lime (C, CaO) among primary clinker minerals ..... 20 13. Photograph of Ghori I cement plant in Pul-e-Khumri, Baghlan Province, Afghanistan ............................ 21 14. Photograph of Ghori-II cement plant in Pul-e-Khumri, Baghlan Province, Afghanistan ........................... 22 15. Illustration showing the value chain for the production of cement for use in concrete at the subsector scale for Afghanistan .............................................................................................................................. 23 16. Illustration showing the value chain for the processing of limestone, clay, bauxite, and gypsum for production of cement at the subsector scale for Afghanistan .................................................................. 25 17. Graph showing specific electrical energy consumption (SEEC) and specific thermal energy consumption (STEC) for wet and dry cement production worldwide during the period 1978–2008 ........ 28 18. Graphs showing Afghan domestic electrical power production and consumption for the period 1980 to 2011 ........................................................................................................................................... 30 19. U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)/Afghan Energy Information Center (AEIC) map of installed electrical power substations in Afghanistan .......................................................................... 31 20. Map showing distribution of coal-bearing rocks in Afghanistan ............................................................... 32 21. Map showing the proposed route for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline ................................................................................................................................................... 35 22. Illustration showing potential combinations of energy types for satisfying the thermal and electrical energy needs of a cement plant. ............................................................................................................. 37 23. Photograph of a bird sculpture on display at the Afghanistan International Marble Conference in Herat (April 2010), typifying the use of calcareous dimension stone as decorative art form ............................. 38 24. Map showing permissive and favorable tracts for granite dimension stone ............................................ 40 25. Map showing permissive and favorable tracts in Afghanistan for limestone and dimension limestone ... 41 26. Map showing permissive and favorable tracts for travertine dimension stone in Afghanistan ................. 42 27. Map showing permissive and favorable tracts for travertine dimension stone within tract dms04, Helmand Province, Afghanistan .............................................................................................................. 43 28. Illustration showing examples of marble varieties available in Afghanistan ............................................ 45 29. Map showing sites of known marble extraction and processing in Afghanistan ...................................... 47 30. Photograph of Lrg-FirmHerat marble-extraction operations showing waste flow ....................................... 49 iv 31. Photograph of Med-FirmKabul marble-finishing operation ......................................................................... 49 32. Photograph of synthetic tile made by Med-FirmKabul from marble chips and concrete ............................. 50 33. Illustration of the value chain for a marble product line produced by a large production firm .................. 50 34. Illustration of the value chain for a marble product line produced by a medium sized production firm .... 51 35. Electrical-grid diagram for the North East Power System, Sheberghan, Afghanistan ............................. 79 36. Electrical-grid diagram for the North East Power System, Mazar Sharif, Aybak, and Pul-e-Khumri, Afghanistan ............................................................................................................................................. 80 37. Electrical-grid diagram for the North East Power System, Kunduz, Baghlan, and Pul-e-Khumri, Afghanistan ............................................................................................................................................. 81 38. Electrical-grid diagram for the North East Power System, Kabul, Afghanistan ....................................... 82 39. Electrical-grid diagram for the South East Power System, Helmand and Kandahar, Afghanistan .......... 83 40. Electrical-grid diagram for Afghan electric grid-F, Western Power System, Herat, Afghanistan, with imported power coming from Iran and Turkmenistan .............................................................................. 84 41. Electrical-grid diagram for the North East Power System, South East Power System, and Western Power System in Afghanistan, showing power generation and imported power for 2008–2012 ............. 85 Tables 1. Agencies and organizations contributing to April 30, 2012, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) data call ............................................................................................................. 86 2. Information sources for Afghanistan reconstruction projects .................................................................... 87 3. Industrial minerals north of the Herat Suture Zone cross-referenced to areas of interest for Afghanistan............................................................................................................................................... 88 4. Industrial minerals south of the Herat Suture Zone cross-referenced to areas of interest for Afghanistan............................................................................................................................................... 88 5. Potential use of Afghan industrial minerals for finished products .............................................................. 89 6. Examples of physical reconstruction projects in Afghanistan ................................................................... 95 7. Potential benefits of blended cement ........................................................................................................ 97 8. Cement chemist notation (CCN) and phase properties ............................................................................ 98 9. Typical contents of cement-grade limestone and clinker .......................................................................... 99 10 . Examples of documented cement-grade limestone workings in Afghanistan ......................................... 100 11 . Allocation of electrical energy for cement production in kilowatt hours per metric ton (kWh/t) ................ 101 12. Allocation of electrical energy for cement production in Afghanistan, in kilowatt hours per metric ton (kWh/t) .................................................................................................................................................... 101 13. Value chain challenges for coal production in Afghanistan ..................................................................... 101 14. Value chain steps for natural gas production in Afghanistan .................................................................. 102 15. United Kingdom cement plants that used natural gas ............................................................................ 102 16. Potential support organizations for the marble sector in Afghanistan ..................................................... 103 17. Attributes of Med-FirmKabul and Lrg-FirmHerat, which are representative of medium and large marble fabrication firms in Afghanistan ............................................................................................................... 104 18. Marble quarries in Afghanistan ............................................................................................................... 105 19. Marble carvers, Kabul Province, Afghanistan ......................................................................................... 107 20. Marble processing plants in Afghanistan ................................................................................................ 108 v Abbreviations A aluminate (Al O ) 2 3 ADB Asian Development Bank AEIC Afghanistan Energy Information Center AGS Afghanistan Geological Survey AFP Afghan First Policy AISA Afghanistan Investment Support Agency AR alumina modulus AREU Afghanistan Research and Evaluation AOI Area of interest ARTF O Reconstruction Trust Fund atm atmospheres bcm Billion cubic meters C free lime (CaO) CAO Afghanistan Control and Audit Office CCCA Commercial Competitiveness Commission of Afghanistan CCN Cement chemistry notation CIA Central Intelligence Agency cm centimeters CRS Congressional Research Service C A tricalcium aluminate 3 C AF ttetracalcium aluminoferrite 4 C S dicalcium silicate 2 CSH2 calcium sulfate dehydrate (Gypsum) DABS Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (The Afghan National Electric Utility Company) DFARS Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement DOD U.S. Department of Defense DOS U.S. Department of State DOT U.S. Department of the Treasury F ferrite (Fe O ) 2 3 GAO Government Accountability Office IDB Islamic Development Bank IFFs informal facilitation fees kPa kilopascals kV kilovolt kWh kilowatt hours kWh/t kilowatt hours per metric ton LNG liquid natural gas vi LOTFA Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan LSF lime saturation factor MBtu million British thermal units MoF Afghanistan Ministry of Finance MoMP Afghanistan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum MV megavolts MVA megavolt amps MW/Mt megawatts per million metric ton NCD North Coal District NEPS North East Power System NG natural gas NGO nongovernmental organization OTF On The Frontier Group psi pounds per square inch S silicate (SiO ) 2 SCMs supplementary cementitious materials SIGAR Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction SEEC specific electrical energy consumption SR silica modulus STEC specific thermal energy consumption TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline tcm trillion cubic meters TFBSO Task Force for Business and Stability and Operations UN United Nations UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission for Afghanistan UNDP United Nations Development Program USD U.S. dollars USAID U.S. Agency for International Development USGS U.S. Geological Survey WB World Bank vii Heuristic Economic Assessment of the Afghanistan Construction Materials Sector—Cement and Dimension Stone Production By Victor G. Mossotti Summary Over the past decade, the U.S. Government has invested more than $106 billion for physical, societal, and governmental reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, 2012a). This funding, along with private investment, has stimulated a growing demand for particular industrial minerals and construction materials. In support of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey released a preliminary mineral assessment in 2007 on selected Afghan nonfuel minerals (Peters and others, 2007). More recently, the 2007 mineral assessment was updated with the inclusion of a more extensive array of Afghan nonfuel minerals (Peters and others, 2011). As a follow-up on the 2011 assessment, this report provides an analysis of the current use and prospects of the following Afghan industrial minerals required to manufacture construction materials: clays of various types, bauxite, gypsum, cement-grade limestone, aggregate (sand and gravel), and dimension stone (sandstone, quartzite, granite, slate, limestone, travertine, marble). The intention of this paper is to assess the: • Use of Afghan industrial minerals to manufacture construction materials, • Prospects for growth in domestic construction materials production sectors, • Factors controlling the competitiveness of domestic production relative to foreign imports of construction materials, and • Feasibility of using natural gas as the prime source of thermal energy and for generating electrical energy for cement production. The discussion here is based on classical principles of supply and demand. Imbedded in these principles is an understanding that the attributes of supply and demand are highly variable. For construction materials, demand for a given product may depend on seasons of the year, location of construction sites, product delivery time, political factors, governmental regulations, cultural issues, price, and how essential a given product might be to the buyer. Moreover, failure on the supply side to mirror such attributes can be deal-breakers in a transaction. For qualitative interpretation of the findings in this report, the value chain was used to conceptualize the relation between supply and demand. Although quantitative data on the Afghan construction materials sector have been hard to come by, the premise herein was that qualitative aspects of supply and demand are revealed by following the flow of funding through projects of varying sizes. It was found that the spectrum of attributes on the demand side of large multimillion dollar reconstruction projects is generally high dimensional, distributed over a broad line of construction materials at diverse locations, and in varying quantities. As interpreted herein, project funds dispensed at the higher hierarchical levels of a project are often concentrated on procurement of construction materials and