Monthly Grain Crop Review January 2020 Jefferson City, MO Monday, February 3, 2020 MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News January’s WASDE report, released on the 10th, did not have many surprises. Numbers from the report were mostly anticipated and traders had already worked the adjustments into the market. Corn production was increased by 31 million bushels to 13.692 billion bushels, due to a higher yield counterbalancing the reduction in harvested area. Total corn use was increased to 14.070 billion bushels, an increase of 155 million bushels, and exports were decreased to 1.775 billion bushels. Soybean production was estimated at 3.56 billion bushels, an increase of 8 million bushels, mostly due to an increase to by 0.5 bushels to an estimated 47.5 bushels per acre. The hot topic for the month was the signing of the Phase One agreement between the U.S. and China. There are plans for Phase Two to be finished late in the year. Strong demand indicators were floating around the marketplace, showing strong soybean prices. However, the overall lack of details about actual agricultural purchases and absence of current perceived demand after the signing put some uneasiness into the grain markets. Selling pressure has continued as supportive updates have been absent. Another attributing factor to softness in the market is the concern of a large soybean harvest in Brazil. Weather has been favorable in South America, adding to the selling pressure. A rally in the wheat markets broke through the spillover weakness from the soybean and corn markets. Reports of Russian wheat exports slowing and the potential of China buying U.S. wheat helped push the markets into a four year high. USMCA was passed in Congress and was officially signed by President Trump on January 29. It will not be finalized until Canada ratifies it. If it is passed, the USMCA will go into effect 90 days later. January 2020 Corn Bids 4.20 4.15 4.10 4.05 4.00 3.95 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.75 3.70 3.65 3.60 ##~~~~$~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~v~ ~v ~~~,~ ~~~f ~~~~~,~- ~~,~~ ~~·~ ~ ~ ,~ ,~ ' ~ ' ~ ' v~ ''~ ' ~ v~~ '' ' ~ ,~ ' ~ --Kansas City --st. Louis --CEDtral - south East Barge The average January corn bid in Missouri was 3.94, 0.09 higher than December’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.07 to 0.11 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to January 2019, this month’s corn bids were 0.22 to 0.30 higher, with the combined average 0.25 higher than a year ago. Corn bids closed on January 31 from 0.01 to 0.09 lower, when compared to January 2. January 2020 Soybean Bids 9.80 9.75 9.70 9.65 9.60 9.55 9.50 9.45 9.40 9.35 9.30 9.25 9.20 9.15 9.10 9.05 9.00 8.95 8.90 8.85 8.80 8.75 8.70 8.65 8.2Q 8.:,:, 8.50 8.45 8.40 --KansisCity --st.Louis --cmtral _._South East Barge The average January soybean bid in Missouri was 9.16, 0.09 higher than December’s average soybean bid. Statewide, soybean bids ranged from 0.04 to 0.17 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to January 2019, soybean bids were 0.43 to 0.55 higher, with the combined average 0.48 higher than a year ago. On January 31, soybean bids closed 0.69 to 0.78 lower, when compared to January 2. r January 2020 Wheat Bids 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.40 6.30 6.20 6.10 6.00 5.90 5.80 5.70 5.60 5.50 5.40 5.30 5.20 --Kansas City --st. Louis --cmtral South Ea st Barge The average January soft wheat bid in Missouri was 5.79, 0.28 higher than December’s average wheat bid. Statewide, wheat bids ranged from 0.23 to 0.34 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to January 2019, soft wheat bids were 0.68 to 0.86 higher, with the combined average 0.79 higher than a year ago. On January31, wheat bids closed 0.07 to 0.08 lower, when compared to January 2. *Sets of data for the graphs are from the Missouri Grain Cash Bids report that is published daily. Only dates in which markets are trading are represented. Source: MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News Service, Jefferson City, MO Caroline Tyler-Carter, Market Reporter, (573)751-5618 Monthly Grain Crop Review February 2020 Jefferson City, MO Monday, March 2, 2020 MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News The grain markets had some resistance this month, which was mostly blamed on coronavirus fears and worries about demand. However, it seems to be too early to tell the impacts it may have on the agricultural industry. Some strength came to the market when China made a reduction in retaliatory tariffs on American imports and there were reports of China looking to buy agriculture products. China also announced they will allow applications from importers for exemptions on U.S. products and goods, including agricultural and energy products. Short term demand still seems to be in the air, but there is some optimism for long term demand. Another factor in market strength and weakness, depending on current weather conditions, was South American harvest and second crop planting. Favorable weather and moisture to key areas has market analysts predicting another large crop this year. The February WASDE report historically does not have too much of an impact and this year continued that trend. There were some adjustments to exports and corn used for ethanol, but they offset each other, making U.S. ending stocks unchanged from a month ago. In soybeans, exports were increased by 50 million bushels and ending stocks were decreased, reflecting the increase of exports. Wheat exports were increased by 25 million bushels and ending stocks were decreased. February 2020 Corn Bids 4.3 4.25 4.2 4.15 4.1 4.05 4 3.95 3.9 3.SS 3.8 3.75 3.7 3.65 3.6 --Kansas City --st. Louis --CEDtral - south East Barge The average February corn bid in Missouri was 3.90, 0.04 lower than January’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.03 to 0.05 lower than last month’s averages. Compared to February 2019, this month’s corn bids were 0.14 to 0.31 higher, with the combined average 0.18 higher than a year ago. Corn bids closed on February 28 from 0.08 to 0.11 lower, when compared to February 3. February 2020 Soybean Bids 9.4 9.35 9.3 9.25 9.2 9.15 9.1 9.05 9 ··--- 8.95 8.9 8.85 8.8 8.75 8.7 8.65 8.6 8.55 8.5 8.45 8.4 8.35 8.3 --KansisCity --st.Louis --cmtral - south East Barge The average February soybean bid in Missouri was 8.90, 0.27 lower than January’s average soybean bid. Statewide, soybean bids ranged from 0.23 to 0.30 lower than last month’s averages. Compared to February 2019, soybean bids were 0.14 to 0.17 higher, with the combined average 0.15 higher than a year ago. On February 28, soybean bids closed 0.11 to 0.15 higher, when compared to February 3. r February 2020 Wheat Bids 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 --Kansas City --st. Louis --cmtral South Ea st Barge The average February soft wheat bid in Missouri was 5.60, 0.19 lower than January’s average wheat bid. Statewide, wheat bids ranged from 0.15 to 0.26 lower than last month’s averages. Compared to February 2019, soft wheat bids were 0.69 to 0.84 higher, with the combined average 0.76 higher than a year ago. On February 28, wheat bids closed 0.32 to 0.61 lower, when compared to February 3. *Sets of data for the graphs are from the Missouri Grain Cash Bids report that is published daily. Only dates in which markets are trading are represented. Source: MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News Service, Jefferson City, MO Caroline Tyler-Carter, Market Reporter, (573)751-5618 Monthly Grain Crop Review March 2020 Jefferson City, MO Wednesday, April 1, 2020 MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News There has been plenty of moisture across the Corn Belt in the past month and the Drought Monitor continues to have no drought impact included on the map. The grass has greened up and farmers are wanting to get some spring field work completed. There were a couple of days in March that the ground dried out just enough to do some anhydrous work. Terrace work has started, trying to fix damaged fields from last year and the recent rains. However, crunch time is here and planters will start moving in soon. A much-anticipated report from this month was the Prospective Plantings report released from USDA on Tuesday, March 31. Corn planted acreage was up eight percent (7.29 million acres) from last year at 97 million acres. Soybean planted acreage was increased by ten percent to a projection of 83.5 million acres. All wheat planted acreage was decreased by one percent to an estimate of 44.7 million acres, which is the lowest all wheat planted area since 1919, when records began. Winter wheat acreage was decreased by one percent to 30.8 million acres. Of the winter wheat acreage, about 21.7 million are Hard Red Winter wheat, 5.69 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.42 million acres are White Winter wheat, according to USDA. The Grain Stocks report, also released on Tuesday, March 31, showed corn stocks in all positions at 7.95 billion bushels, a decrease of eight percent from a year ago. On-farm storage was estimated at 4.45 billion bushels, down 13 percent, and off-farm storage at 3.50 billion bushels, a small increase from last year. Soybeans stocks in all positions totaled 2.25 billion bushels, a decrease of 17 percent from March 1, 2019. On-farm storage was estimated at 1.01 billion bushels, down 20 percent, and off-farm storage at 1.24 billion bushels, down 15 percent from a year ago. All wheat stored in all positions was estimated at 1.41 billion bushels, a decrease of 11 percent from last March. On-farm storage was projected at 339 million bushels, down eight percent, and off-farm stocks at 1.07 billion bushels, 12 percent less than a year ago. March’s WASDE report didn’t have many changes from the previous month. U.S. corn supply and use outlook was unchanged, with a projected production estimate of 13.692 billion bushels and the yield unchanged at 168 bushels per acre. U.S. soybean production was unchanged at 3.558 billion bushels, as well as the yield at 47.4 bushels per acre. U.S. wheat supply was projected at 1.92 billion bushels, and yield at 51.7 bushels per acre, steady with last month’s report. The weekly Crop Progress report from USDA will resume next week on Monday, April 6. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange decreased crop production estimates in Argentina, as they have seen excessive heat and dry weather during a key reproductive stage for soybeans and corn. There were movement restrictions in place, causing a hinderance for South Americans farmers to move their harvested grain. However, the restrictions were lifted from the agricultural sector last week. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported 166.288 million bushels of U.S. soybean crush in February. This was more than the trade guess, but lower than the record-breaking crush of 176.94 million bushels in January. March 2020 Corn Bids 4.2 4.15 4.1 4.05 4 3.95 3.9 3.SS 3.8 3.75 3.7 3.65 3.6 3.55 3.5 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.3 3.25 3.2 - Kansas City - st. Louis - ceotral South Ea st Barge The average March corn bid in Missouri was 3.70, 0.20 lower than February’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.16 to 0.27 lower than last month’s averages. Compared to March 2019, this month’s corn bids were 0.03 lower to 0.13 higher, with the combined average 0.05 higher than a year ago. Corn bids closed on March 31 from 0.35 to 0.50 lower, when compared to March 2.