Globalizationa nd Politics Promises and Dangers JAN-ERIK LANE University of Geneva, Switzerland ASHGATE © Jan-Erik Lane 2006 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Jan-Erik Lane has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. Published by Ashgate Publishing Limited Ashgate Publishing Company Gower House Suite420 Croft Road IOI Cherry Street Aldershot Burlington, VT 05401-4405 Hampshire GUI 1 3HR USA England Ashgate website: http//www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Lane, Jan-Erik Globalization and politics : promises and dangers I.Globalization 2.World politics -21'1 century 3.Environmental policy 4.Environmental degradation I.Title 327 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lane, Jan-Erik. Globalization and politics : promises and dangers/ by Jan-Erik Lane. p.cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-7 546-4667-X I. Globalization. I. Title. JZI318.L358 2005 337.l--dc22 2005023136 ISBN O 7546 4667 X Typeset by IML Typographers, Birkenhead, Merseyside Printed and bound in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall. Contents List of Tables, Figures and Appendices ix Preface xi List of Abbreviations xiii Introduction Globalization: Promises and Dangers 1 Globalization as One Walk of Life in the 21st Century 1 Globalization is more than Reciprocity and Occidentalism 2 Four Main Problems within Globalization 3 The Promises of Globalization 4 The Dangers of Globalization 7 The Anti-Globalization Movement 10 The Coordination Problems 11 Arrhenius, Warming and Hubbert: Key Early Globalization Theories 13 Conclusion 14 PARTI:CHALLENGES 1 The Optimistic and Pessimistic View on Global Energy 17 Introduction 17 Various Types of Energy 17 Total and Usable Energy 18 Renewable Sources of Energy 21 The Hydrogen Economy 22 Alternative Energy Sources 23 Minerals: Julian Simon's Principle 24 Distribution: The Alternative or Pessimistic Perspective 25 How Long will Earth's Resources Last? 26 Conclusion 28 2 Environmental Degradation and Environmentalism 31 Introduction 31 Pollution 32 Environmentalism 33 Pollution of the Air 34 Acid Rain 35 Pollution of the Sea 37 Pollution of the Forests 37 vi Globalization and Politics Pollution of Water 37 Global Warming: The Greenhouse Effect 38 The Ozone Layer 39 Endangered Species 40 Organized Environmentalism 41 Rejecting the Wildavsky-Lomborg Thesis 42 Regional Environmental Coordination versus Global Environments 43 Conclusion 55 3 Implementing Human Rights and Global Rule of Law 57 Introduction 57 Rule of Law in a Global Context 58 Global or Regional Rule of Law? 58 Judicial Activism and People's Redress 60 Globalization and Judicialization: The ICJ and ICC , 62 Rights: A Simple Model of Negative, Positive and Group Rights 64 Global or Regional Enforcement? 66 Institutionalization: How to Fight the Crime Economy 67 Transnational Crime 68 Crime and Globalization 70 Creating a Global Crime Fighting Regime 71 Conclusion 75 4 Diversity of Civilizations 77 Introduction 77 Civilizations of the World: How Compact? 77 Attributes of Civilizations 79 Basic Correlates of Civilizational Variety 82 Will there be One Global Culture? 83 Globalization Reducing Nationalism 86 Globalization Softening Religious Creeds 88 Globalization Reinforcing Islamic Fundamentalism 89 Globalization Creating Worldwide Communities of Like-Minded 90 Globalization Increasing the Search for Cultural Identity 91 Democracy in Multicultural Societies - A Global Challenge 93 Conclusion 96 PART II: RESPONSES 5 Coordinationo f the Global Market Economy 101 Introduction 101 The Institutions of the Global Economy 101 The Bretton Woods Institutions 107 Which Structure of the Global Market Economy? 111 Conclusion 113 Contents vii 6 Protecting the Global Environment 115 Introduction 115 The Protection of the Whales: Does IWC Work? 116 Voluntary Environmental Coordination: Can it Really Work? 117 The UN Framework: Do Earth Summits Work? 118 The Market Option: The Kyoto Agreement 121 Repairing the Ozone Layer 122 Mega Environmental Disasters 123 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 125 Conclusion 126 7 Coordination Among States: From Sovereignty to Reciprocity 129 Introduction 129 Sovereignty: The Legal Concept 129 The Limits of Sovereignty: The Oceans and the Poles 132 Reasons of State and Hegemony 134 Bilateral Coordination: Transaction Costs Heavy 135 International Coordination 136 States in Coordination 138 Conclusion 144 8 Power in International Organization 147 Introduction 147 The Starting Point: Revising Wicksell' s Theory 148 The Voting Power Approach: The Calculus 149 The Power Index Approach: Alternative Interpretations 153 The Diversity of International and Regional Organizations 154 Conclusion 157 9 The Regionalization of Government: A Comparison of Regional Groups of States 159 Introduction 159 Regional Groups of States 160 Logic of Regional Integration 162 Compactness: The Between and Within Group Variation 163 Regional Groups 168 Security First, Prosperity Later 179 Globalization and Regionalization 180 Conclusion 181 10 Mankind and the World Community: Relevance of Universalism 185 Introduction 185 The Philosophy of Humanity: Universalism 186 Global Social Capital: Towards One Open Society? 187 The Global Internet Community 192 The Philosophy of the Internet Society 194 Conclusion 195 viii Globalization and Politics PART III: PROSPECTS 11 Could Mankind Extinguish Itself? 199 Introduction 199 Climate Change: Behemoth Catastrophes 200 Resilience and Precaution 202 Risk for Global Petrol Overuse? 203 Immense Global Pollution? 205 Overpopulation? 205 Sustainable Development 208 Endangered Species and Ecosystems 209 Health Coordination Against Global Diseases 210 Conclusion 212 12 A Hollywood Planet: ANeo-Veblen World? 215 Anglo-Saxon Cultural Dominance 215 The Global Open Society 217 The Dilemma of Immense Global Challenges 218 Conclusion 224 Bibliography 227 Index 243 List of Tables,F igures andA ppendices Tables 1.1 The resources of the earth, 2000 27 2.1 Air pollution emissions: changes in 1000 tons since 1990 according to percentages 45 2.2 Total CO2 emissions from energy use (millions of tons), 1980-1999 47 2.3 CO2 emissions by source (millions of tons), 1980-1999 48 2.4 Emissions of major greenhouse ga'ses (1000 tons CO2 equivalent), end 1990s 48 2.5 Population connected to public waste water treatment plants, 1980-1999 49 2.6 Freshwater: abstractions and resources, (million m2), 1999 50 2.7 Total waste: municipal waste ( 1000 tons) 51 2.8 Hazardous materials: production, movement and disposal of hazardous waste, 1987-1999 52 2.9 Endangered species: mammals, birds and fish 53 2.10 Catches of fish and other aquatic animals and products, 2000 54 2.11 Fishing in 1000 tons, 1980, 1990 and 2000 54 4.1 Some civilizations of the world 78 4.2 Eleven civilizations: HDI and HR scores 80 4.3 Eta squared scores for HDI and HR 81 4.4 Eleven civilizations: differences in societal correlates 83 4.5 The correlates of civilizations 84 8.1 International and regional organizations: voting power parameters 156 9 .1 Key regional groups, 2000 160 9.2 Long-run features: regional heterogeneity (means and eta squares) 165 9.3 Short-run features: regional heterogeneity (means and eta squares) 166 10.1 Correlations between social capital and HDI 188 11.1 Incidence/prevalence of HIV/A IDS, 2003 212 Figures 1.1 Dieterlen' s equations for global oil production peak 29 2.1 Hazardous materials: production, movement and disposal of hazardous waste 55 3.1 Benefits and costs in human rights enforcement 65 4.1 Eleven civilizations: HDI and HR 81 X Globalization and Politics 5 .1 Structure of the global market economy 112 10.1 Civil society and human development 189 10.2 Civil society workforce and human development 190 10.3 Number ofNGOs and human development 191 Appendices 4.1 Variable list 97 9 .1 Variable list 183 10.1 Variable list 196 Preface This book is the result of the many teaching commissions I took on during the last couple of years in various parts of the world including Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Alaska and South Dakota. It looks upon globalization as energy, economy, environment and politics, which interact to create the walk of life for mankind in the 21st century. Globalization is basically both interdependency and governance, both dangers and promises, which explains why it is both feared and praised. Starting out as an economic trend with strong environmental spill over effects, globalization has become increasingly a political trend with cultural implications. The problems of globalization - energy, environment, peace - concern coordination, that is, how the roughly 200 countries of the world can work together to tackle the specific difficulties that mankind will face. If the countries of the world can successfully coordinate their activities, then globalization may bring about beneficial outcomes for mankind. Should coordination fail, then globalization will spell disaster and perhaps bring mankind to the brink of the destruction of the human race. The problem of coordination runs through the key aspects of globalization: the global market economy, Mother Earth or the environment as well as the system of states. Governments must coordinate their actions to respond to global challenges. But coordination is not easily accomplished in a world consisting of about 200 sovereign states. There is nothing that guarantees that mankind will find solutions to the main problems of globalization. Besides dreaming about global prosperity and eternal peace there is ample room for scepticism, if not outright negativism, as mankind faces the energy-environment conundrum of development and energy crisis on the one hand and climate change as well as global warming on the other. In writing this book I was greatly assisted by Sylvia Dumons within the Secretariat of the Department of Political Science at Geneva University. I should also thank all the students who read and commented upon various drafts of this manuscript. Some materials in a few chapters go back to articles I have published in journals: 'Globalization and the Institutional Deficit', in the Asian Journal of Public Administration (2002, vol. 24:1), 'Globalization, Cultural Identity and Democracy' in Revista de Economia Politica (2003, vol. 23:4), 'Globalization: Promises and Dangers', in Zeitschrift fiir Staats- und Europawissenschaften (200412) , 'The Global Dilemma: A Game against Nature', in Assenwirtschaft, vol. 60:II and 'International Organisation as Coordination in N-Person Games', in Political Studies (2006) vol. 54:1 (with Reinert Maeland). I have also drawn upon 'The Regionalisation of Government: A Comparison of Regional Groups of States in Hesse, J.J. and Grotz, F. (eds) International Kyoto Conference on Public Administration, pp. 1-45 and 'European Union: The Legal Dimension', in Handbook of Public Administration and xii Globalization and Politics Policy in the European Union, edited by Peter van den Hoek (2005), pp. 233-256. I would like to thank Svante Ersson for help with Chapters 4 and 9 and Reinert Maeland for help with Chapter 8. Jan-Erik Lane August 2005, Geneva