Global Monitoring Report 2011 Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs Global Monitoring Report 2011 Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs Global Monitoring Report 2011 Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs Heterogeneity, Gaps, and Challenges © 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11 This volume is a product of the staffs of The World Bank and The International Monetary Fund. The fi nd- ings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of The World Bank, the Board of Executive Directors of The International Monetary Fund, or the governments they represent. The World Bank and The International Monetary Fund do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8700-9 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8701-6 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8700-9 The painting on the cover, “Faces of Diversity,” is by Tola Wewe; the painting is from his ‘Beauty is Everywhere’ series and is part of a private collection. Tola Wewe is a member of the African Artists’ Foundation (AAF), which is a nonprofi t organization dedicated to the promotion of African art and artists, and the promotion of relevant social issues through artistic endeavors. AAF plays a signifi cant role in art communities in Africa through its art exhibitions, competitions, art classes, and workshops with the aim of unearthing and developing talent, creating societal awareness, and providing a platform to express creativity. Visit www.africanartists.org for more information on AAF. Cover design by Debra Naylor of Naylor Design Interior photographs: All photographs are from the National Geographic Society Image Collection. Lynn Johnson (page 10); James P. Blair (page 42); Lynn Johnson (page 70); W. E. Garrett (page 102); Randy Olson (page 124). Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xiii Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv Goals and Targets from the Millennium Declaration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xvi Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 The Diversity of MDG Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2 Economic Growth in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3 Linking Spending and Outcomes: Some Lessons from Impact Evaluations in Education and Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 4 Assisting the Indigenous and Socially Excluded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 5 Progress in the International Development and Trading Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Appendix 1: T echnical Issues in Estimating Progress on the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Appendix 2: P olicies to Reduce Biodiversity Loss and Enhance Human Development . . . 175 GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011 v vi CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011 BOXES 1.1 Poverty data and projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.2 Gaps and issues in measuring development outcomes beyond 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.3 Improving children’s health through sustainable access to food, water, and energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.4 The impact of violence on the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 1.5 Reducing inequality and poverty in Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.1 The global food price surge in 2010—causes and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 2.2 Low-income-country exports during the exit from the crisis: early evidence . . . . . . 50 2.3 Emerging market capital infl ows: experience and challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 2.4 Fragile states—experience and implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 3.1 Some impact evaluations have forced a rethinking of our assumptions about HIV/AIDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 3.2 Spillovers and unintended effects can be important . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 3.3 The DIME initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 4.1 Who are indigenous peoples? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 4.2 The Roma of Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 4.3 Vulnerable groups deserve more attention in MDG country reports . . . . . . . . . . . 112 4.4 Bilingual education in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 4.5 Examples of successful targeted programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 5.1 Aid recipients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 5.2 The donor community is enhancing Africa’s trade facilitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 5.3 Special reconstruction allocation for Haiti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 5.4 World Development Report 2011: Confl ict, Security, and Development . . . . . . . . 147 5.5 Open data, open knowledge, and open solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 5.6 Climate change, natural disasters, and the World Bank Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 FIGURES 1 The distance to global MDGs ranges widely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 More than two-thirds of developing countries are on track or close to being on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.1 Current global distance to the MDGs is wide ranging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.2 Fewer low-income countries are on track to achieve the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.3 Countries on target to achieve the MDGs, by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.4 More than two-thirds of developing countries are on track or close to being on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 1.5 MDG performance is stronger in countries with good initial conditions . . . . . . . . . 26 1.6 Subsequent economic growth and policy seem to matter more . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 1.7 MDG performance lags in IDA and fragile countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011 CONTENTS vii 1.8 MDG performance is better in countries with greater export sophistication and shipping connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.9 The odds of getting on target rise substantially with faster growth and better policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 1.10 Growth and policy reforms will put many countries on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.1 Low-income economies’ per capita growth remained positive in 2009, in contrast to elsewhere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.2 Economic recovery has taken many commodity prices sharply higher . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.3 Bond spreads and international bond issuance are virtually back to precrisis levels in emerging and developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 2.4 Share prices, too, have bounced back . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 2.5 Emerging market bank fi nancing continues to recover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 2.6 Nonperforming loans in emerging and developing countries, 2003–10 . . . . . . . . . . 48 2.7 Global current account imbalances, 2000–11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2.8 Annual changes in terms of trade, by quintile group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 2.9 Reserve levels broadly kept pace with the rebound in trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 2.10 L ow-income countries’ precrisis macroeconomic policy buffers were stronger than in earlier years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 2.11 Macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis vary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 2.12 Monetary policy loosening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 2.13 A verage year-on-year growth in money and the money gap in emerging market economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 2.14 Fiscal defi cit, 2008–11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.15 Low-income countries: fi scal balances and economic crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.16 R eal primary expenditure in low-income countries has increased in favor of public investment and social sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.17 Macroeconomic policy quality in low-income countries remained little changed. . . 56 2.18 The overall debt outlook in low-income countries seems favorable as fi scal buffers are being rebuilt along with the recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 2.19 L ow-income countries projected to cut real spending tend to have high defi cits and debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 2.20 T he current account balance is projected to improve gradually in low-income countries as exports rebound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 2.21 R eserve cushions would not improve much among low-income countries with relatively low reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.1 Government and donor spending on health and education is unprecedented. . . . . . 72 3.2 The relationship between expenditure and learning outcomes is weak . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.3 There are wide differences in the share of public health spending going to the rich and the poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.4 Links between public expenditure and human development outcomes . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.1 Progress is mixed in reducing the poverty of indigenous groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 4.2 Test results show how stigma can be internalized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 viii CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2011 4.3 Heterogeneity has a negative effect on test scores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 4.4 Both poor and rich countries show gaps in life expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 5.1 Impact of banking crises on net disbursed aid provided by crisis-affected donors, 1977–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 5.2 Exports have yet to recover their precrisis trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 5.3 Merchandise export volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 5.4 Trade-restrictive measures have fallen since 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 5.5 Newly initiated trade remedy investigations have peaked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 5.6 Trade-restrictive and trade-liberalizing measures, November 2009– October 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 5.7 Local-to-global connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 5.8 Regional trends in aid for trade, 2002–09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 A1.1 Odds of achieving the MDGs improve with growth and better policy . . . . . . . . . . 171 MAPS 1.1 The world is still on track to meet the poverty reduction target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.2 Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia are home to the vast majority of children out of school . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.1 GDP: Economic growth in 2009 and 2010 has been uneven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 2.2 Fiscal balance: Countries are diverging in their responses to fi scal challenges . . . . . 61 3.1 The maternal mortality rate is declining only slowly, even though the vast majority of deaths are avoidable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 3.2 Each year of a girl’s education reduces, by as much as 10 percent, the risk of her children dying before age fi ve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 4.1 Almost nine million children still die each year before they reach their fi fth birthday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 4.2 For girls in some African countries, secondary education remains elusive . . . . . . 115 5.1 Across the world, 884 million people lack access to safe water—around 80 percent of them in rural areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 5.2 With half the people in developing regions without sanitation, the 2015 target appears to be out of reach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 A2.1 A verage change in species populations, relative to the intact situation (mean species abundance), 2000 and 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 TABLES 1 Lagging countries are close to getting on target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2 Growth and CPIA scores are higher in countries on track or close to being on track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3 Global output, 2007–14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.1 Several low-income countries are achieving the MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.2 Lagging countries are close to getting on target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19