v^ v°' V° • • • . -.. co»«. A'° • • * CO»», O s* ^ 'I > « #. '.^Cr « 7^^. ^>ri< . '^OV t 'b. /•■’ •%<. • • ».\‘°““VV ‘“'V'” ’Vt»* * ^>Q.'°"°>V/» .ííttofc. ^ ■t cV , ^IW/ %W//\lw/ %m*/\iw/ ' '»%>“’ ’ ‘ o°^t‘I^’\"° ’ * ’ '"<^*'1^%°' f^t <b<^ o,^^'. -^j-!^ ^a-^ o.^^l -^j.^ .‘•(^^» •’o-^ o,^^'. > Oq O -_. <■> A»"'' ‘«/c'J^i^li'^;AV-f <^ "’•'’■«i i: aV-í., »^W* 0%“’'^^» xP^- .. »W -v )V Coastal Zone Management Subgroup / f Response Strategies Working Group " Intergox'ERNmental Panel on Climate Change Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea Cambio Climático Global y el Reto Del Incremento del Nivel del Mar Proceedings of the International Workshop Held on Margarita Island, Venezuela Hosted by the Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources 9 13,1992 March - Memorias del Taller Internacional realizado EN la Isla de Margarita, Venezuela Auspiciado por el Ministerio del Ambiente y de los Recursos Naturales Renovables de Venezuela 9-13 1992 DE Marzo, m Printed the U.S. Department of Commerce Produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. and the Environmentai Protection Agency GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RISING CHALLENGE OF THE SEA Proceedings of the International workshop Held on Margarita Island, Venezuela march 9-13,1992 CAMBIO CLIMATICO GLOBAL YEL RETO DEL INCREMENTO DEL NIVEL DEL MAR Memorias Del Taller Internacional Realizado en la Isla de Margarita, Venezuela 9-13 DE MARZO, 1992 These papers were prepared and presented by the workshop participants. Although the work¬ shop was conducted under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC co-sponsorship does not imply IPCC endorsement or approval of these papers. Wc gratefully acknowledge the support of the Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources that sponsored and organized the workshop. A special thank you is extended to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra¬ tion/National Ocean Service, Office of International Affairs and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate ‘ Change Division for the production and publication of these proceedings. Estos trabajos fueron realizados y presentados por los participantes del Taller. Aunque el Taller fue auspiciado por el Panel Interguhernamental de Cambio Climático, el co- partrocinio del IPCC no implica que el mismo apruebe o respalde estas memorias. Se agradece y reconoce el apoyo del Ministerio del Ambiente y de los Recursos Naturales de Venezuela por el patrocinio y organización del Taller. Se extiende un agradecimiento muy especial a la Oficina Nacional de Administración Oceánica y Atmosférica !Servicio Nacional Oceánico, Oficina de Asuntos Internacionales y a la Agencia de Protección Ambiental / Oficina de Política, Planificación y Evaluación de la División de Cambio Clamático de los Estados Unidos por la producción y publicación de estas memorias. Ing. Martha Perdomo Co-Chair—Coastal Zone Management Subgroup Co-Chair—Coastal Zone Management Subgroup Co-Presidente- Co-Presidente- Subgroup de Manejo de Zonas Coasteras Subgroup de Manejo de Zonas Coasteras Contents • (L'6^ (j (c ¥9 OVERVIEW AND SUMMARY / O'9 ^ The Rising Challenge of the Sea . 3 Findings and Recommendations 4 Case Studies of small islands Assessment of the Vulnerability of Coastal Areas in Antigua and Nevis to Sea Level Rise Gillian Cambers. 11 Preliminary Assessment of the Vulnerability of Kiribati to Accelerated Sea Level J^se Colin D. Woodrojfe. 29 Assessment of the Vulnerability of Majuro Atoll to Sea Level Rise M. Crawford, P. Holthus, C Makroro, E. Nakasaki, and S. Sullivan. 49 Assessment of the Vulnerability of Mauritius to Sea Level Rise Vasantt K. Jogoo. 107 Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Kingdom of Tonga to Sea Level Rise Netatua P. Fifita, Nobuo Mimura, and Nobuyuki Hori. 119 Case Studies of deltas Assessment of the Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Sea Level Rise Amjad Hossain Khan, Saleemul Huq, A. Atiq Rahman, M. Shahidullah, A. Haque, Syed Ali Naqi, Mujibur Rahman, Saleh Ahmed, Syed Iqbal Ali, Mohammad Youssouf Ali, Mohiuddin Ahmed, Yusuf Islam, and Feroze Mollick. 143 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on China's Coastal Areas Xu Qiwang, Lu Chunhua, Zhang Yushu, and Niu Bin. 157 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Year 2100 on Bohai Bay, the Huanghe River Delta, and Laizhou Bay Liu Zhenxia, Xia Dongxing, Wang Delin, Li Xuan, Wu Sangyun, and Li Fulin. 165 Assessment of the Vulnerability of Egypt to Sea Level Rise A.A. Khafagy, C.H. Hulsbergen, and G. Baarse. 183 nt Assessment of the Vulnerability of Orissa and West Bengal, India, to Sea Level Rise V. Asthana, S. Surendra, and S. Venkatesan. 197 Assessment of the Vulnerability of The Netherlands to Sea Level Rise G. Baarse, E.B. Peerbolte, and L. Bijlsma. 211 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastline of Nigeria Larry F. Awosika, Gregory T. French, Robert J. Nicholls, and C.E.Ibe. 237 Case Studies of continents and large isunds The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Argentina's Coastline Gerardo M.E. Perillo and Maria Cintia Piccolo. 263 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coast of Argentina Enrique J. Schnack, Karen Clemens Dennis, Felix H. Mouzo, and Robert J. Nicholls. 275 Assessment of the Vulnerability of Geographe Bay, Australia, to Sea Level Rise Robert Kay, Ian Eliot, and Geoff Klem. 293 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Rochefort sur Mer, France Christian Auger. 317 Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Japanese Coastal Zones and Response Strategies Nobuo Mimura, Masahiko Isobe, and Yasushi Hosakawa. 329 Rio Lagartos, Yucatán, México Special Biosphere Reserve: A Case Study Gustavo de la Cruz Agüero, Gerardo Gold Bouchot, Victor Alcántar Cardenas, and Juan José Duran Najera. 351 Efectos del Incremento del Nivel del Mar en la Costa Peruana por Influencia del Calentamiento Global (The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Peruvian Coast Caused by Global Warming) César doe Carmen de la Torre and Gustavo Laos Cruzado. 359 The Rising Challenge of the Sea for Poland R.B. Zeidler and G. Toms. 373 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastline of Senegal Isabelle Niang, Karen Clemens Dennis, and Robert J. Nicholls. 407 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastline of Uruguay Claudio R. Volonté and Robert J. Nicholls. 427 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastline of Venezuela José Arismendi and Claudio R. Volonté... 451 Gestión de Costas en Venezuela (Coastal Management in Venezuela) Ernesto Diaz V. 473