Ghana's absurd ratification of its interim EPA Jacques Berthelot ([email protected]), October 7, 2016 Outline I – The GSP duties to pay on Ghana's exports to the EU are hugely exaggerated II – The huge losses of duties on imports from the EU28-UK and on exports to ECOWAS Member States III – The other constraints linked to the ratification of Ghana's interim EPA IV – Conclusion: two favorable alternatives to the EPA that the EU refuses On 12 and 13 October 2016 the INTA committee of the European Parliament will discuss and possibly approve the Ghana's interim EPA initialled in 2007 and ratified on 3 August 20161 by the Ghanean Parliament. In so doing the Ghanean Parliament did not realize that it was shooting itself in the foot, following the Government which preferred to give in to the powerful pressures of international agribusinesses rather than to hear the warnings of the whole range of Ghanean civil society, from the Association of Ghanaian Industry to the Christian Council, the Trade Union movement, CSOs2 and farmers organisations. We should underscore that the ratified interim EPA is different from the West Africa (WA) regional EPA, particularly on the schedule of tariff liberalization which is not written in terms of years T to T20 but in actual civil years so that it would be much more harmful to Ghana than the regional EPA as it would have begun immediately in 2009 to be completed in 2022. However it is likely that, despite the infringement of the legal interim EPA provisions, an arrangement would be found between Ghana and the EU so that not only the liberalization schedule but also the provisions of the interim EPA would be aligned on those of the regional EPA. The present assessment assumes this would happen. I – The GSP duties to pay on Ghanean exports to the EU are hugely exaggerated The Ghanean Ministry of Trade and Industry is justifying the EPA by saying that €400 million (M) of import duties of the GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) would have to be paid annually to continue to export to the EU but this figure is a pure fantasy not to say a huge lie. It suffices to read the following table showing the GSP duties that Ghana would have had to pay on its exports of 2015 either to the EU28 or to the EU28 minus the UK, which are the actual figures to take into account for the future after the Brexit. We see that total GSP duties would have been of €66.9 M in 2015 on exports to the EU28 – 16.7% of the alleged €400 M – and of only €44.9 M or 11.2% of the alleged €400 M to the EU28-UK, implying that the Brexit will reduce these duties by a third (-33.3%). Appendix 1 shows that, if agricultural and fish imports of the Harmonised System (HS) of trade chapters 01 to 24 have accounted for 60.4% the EU28 imports and 58.2% of the EU28-UK 1 http://citifmonline.com/2016/08/03/ghanas-parliament-ratifies-epa-with-eu/ 2 Yao Graham, EPA not beneficial to Ghana, Third World Network Africa, http://citifmonline.com/2016/07/26/epa-not-beneficial-to-ghana-yao-graham/ imports, they have accounted for 97.9% and 96.9% respectively of all GSP duties to pay to the EU28 and EU28-UK. Agricultural imports from Ghana outside chapters 01 to 24 are almost inexistent: €3,410 of essential oils (code 33011) which are imported duty free. To save time we did not recalculate chapter by chapter for EU28-UK imports from Ghana the rate of GSP duties already identified for EU28 imports3, except for the most important products: processed cocoa, processed tuna, bananas and pineapples (CTBP), assuming that the average rate of duties was the same, i.e. that the composition of UK imports for each chapter was the same as that of the EU28. Later we could make the calculations for all chapters but there are these four products which matter for the GSP duties to pay on Ghanean exports. Table 1 shows the share of UK in EU28 and EU28-UK imports from Ghana in 2015 for all products and for the 4 most important CTBP exports which would have to pay the bulk of GSP duties. Table 1 – EU28 and EU28-UK main imports from Ghana in 2015: cocoa, tuna, bananas, pineapples Total CTBP Total processed cocoa Tuna Bananas Pineapples 1000 € total paste butter powder chocolate processed EU28 2394209 574793 340824 208046 101304 58 58 170626 39098 24245 EU28-UK 2117204 436170 309396 200177 77795 41 41 91257 18261 17256 UK 277005 138623 31429 7869 23509 17 17 79369 20837 6989 UK/EU28 11,6% 24,1% 9,2% 3,8% 23,2% 29,1% 29,1% 46,5% 53,3% 28,8% UK/EU28-UK 13,1% 31,8% 10,2% 3,9% 30,2% 41,1% 41,1% 87% 114,1% 40,5% In tonnes EU28 204371 99186 67490 18100 13562 34 33970 51261 19954 EU28-UK 142343 86882 65474 12999 13545 22 15737 22671 17053 UK 62028 7146 2016 5101 17 12 18175 28590 2901 UK/EU28 30,4% 7,2% 3% 28,2% 0,1% 36,6% 53.5% 55,8% 14,5% UK/EU28-UK 43,6% 7,8% 3,1% 39,2% 0,1% 57,7% 115,5% 126,1% 17% Source: Eurostat; CTBP: cocoa, tuna, bananas, pineapples We have omitted the quantity of total imports as it is meaningless. We see that the Brexit does matter for Ghana as UK imports from Ghana have accounted for 24.1% of EU28 imports in value and 31.8% of EU28-UK for all CTBP, and for respectively 27.8% and 40% in volume. In particular the UK accounts for 55.8% of all EU28 bananas imports from Ghana and for 53.5% of processed tuna against 28.8% for pineapples and 9.2% for processed cocoa. This is the reason why total GSP duties to pay to the EU would be a third lower to the EU28-UK than to the EU28. Table 2 shows the GSP duties that Ghana would have paid to the EU28 and EU28-UK in 2015 on the CTBP products and the share of these GSP duties on all duties to agricultural products and total products. Their share was of 91.5% of agricultural products and 89.6% of all products for the EU28 imports from Ghana and of respectively 88.9% and 86.1% for the EU28-UK imports from Ghana. Admittedly Ghanean exports to the EU would also have to pay, beyond the GSP duties, the VAT on all products and excise taxes on mineral oils but we should not count them because, even with the EPA, the EU duty free imports do not incorporate the VAT and excise taxes which have to be paid in any case. 3 The foly to implement the EU-West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), based on 2015 trade data, SOL, 19 April 2016, http://www.sol-asso.fr/analyses-politiques-agricoles-jacques-b/ 2 Table 2 –GSP duties that Ghana would have paid to the EU in 2015 on the CTBP products Product EU28 imports from Ghana EU28-UK imports rom Ghana Code Label Euros 100 kg GSP rate GSP duty Euros 100 kg GSP rate GSP duty 080310 Plantains 311716 2706 12,50% 38965 204638 2188 12,50% 25580 08039010 Bananas fresh 39094915 509901 127 €/t 6475743 18261054 224518 127 €/t 2851379 08039090 Bananas dried 3011 2 12,50% 376 32 0 12,50% 4 080430 Pineapples 24244897 199537 2,30% 557633 17256298 170527 2,30% 396895 Sub-total 08 63654539 712146 11,11% 7072717 35722022 397233 9,16% 3273857 160414 Prepared tuna 168997408 336789 20,50% 34644469 89881282 155040 20,50% 18425663 16042070 Prepared tuna 1628783 2908 20,50% 333901 1375398 2325 20,50% 281956,6 Sub-total 16 170626191 339697 20,50% 34978370 91256680 157365 20,50% 18707620 1803 Cocoa paste 208046044 674903 6,10% 12690809 200177309 654743 6,10% 12210816 1804 Cocoa butter 101303581 180999 4,20% 4254750 77794943 129990 4,20% 3267388 1805 Cocoa powder 31416551 135619 2,80% 879663 31382209 135452 2,80% 878702 1806 Chocolate 57949 339 * 10212 41072 215 * 9739 Sub-total 18 340824125 991860 5,23% 17835434 309395533 920400 5,29% 16366645 Tot. 08+16+18 575104855 2043703 10,41% 59886521 436374235 1474998 8,79% 38348122 % chap.01-24 39,7% 91,5% 35,4% 88,9% % all chapters 24% 89,6% 20,6% 86,1% Source: Eurostat and TARIC However it is likely that without ratification and implementation of the EPA (iEPA or regional EPA) the Commission would issue a regulation to exclude from the GSP the EU28-UK imports of cocoa from Ghana (let alone IC) under Annex VI of Regulation 978/2012 of 25 October 2012 on GSP stating in Article 8 that, when EU imports under a HS section exceed 17.5% of its total imports from all GSP countries for three years, then it is the MFN (Most Favoured Nation) duty and not the GSP duty that applies. The Commission had already issued a regulation (EU) 2016/330 of 8 March 2016 applying the MFN on imports of HS chapter 06 (plants and cut flowers) from Kenya if the EAC EPA would not be ratified. This would clearly be the case for cocoa products as the EU28-UK imports from Ghana represented 19.8% of imports of Chapter 18 (cocoa products) in 2013, 20.1% in 2014 and 17.66% in 2015. Table 3 shows that the ID payable on Ghanean exports of HS chapter 18 exports to the EU28-UK would increase from €16.4 M in 2015 under the GSP to €27.7 M under the MFN, which would increase the total ID by €11.3 M, raising them from €44.6 M to € 55.9 M. Tableau 3 – GSP or MNF duties on Ghanean exports of processed cocoa to the EU28-UK in 2015 1000 euros Paste Butter Powder Chocolate Total Imports 200177 77795 31382 41 309395 GSP rate 6,10% 4,20% 2,80% 4,80%+9,35% MFN rate 9,60% 7,70% 8% 8,30%+9,35% GSP value 12211 3267 879 6 16363 MFN value 19217 5990 2511 7 27725 Source: Eurostat and TARIC Even with the EPA we cannot expect that Ghanean exports to the EU28-UK could rise in the future for two reasons:  The stagnation and ageing of the EU28-UK population which is even expected to decline after 2030 by the UN revised population estimate of 2015.  West African exports to the EU, of which from Ghana, will face a significant competitiveness erosion vis-à-vis the Andean and Central American countries having recently concluded FTAs with the EU as they will also enjoy duty free-quota free exports to the EU except for bananas – where they will pay a declining duty, limited to €75 per tonne from 2020 on when the non LDCs ACPs will have to pay the full MFN duty of €126 without EPAs – and for chocolate for which they will have to pay the specific duty only but not the ad valorem duty. 3 II – The huge losses of duties on imports from the EU28-UK and on exports to ECOWAS Member States The huge overestimate of the GSP duties that Ghana would have paid to the EU in 2015 and would have to pay in the future after the Brexit is far from telling the whole story about the ratification and likely implementation of the interim EPA. Indeed Ghana will have to suffer two large losses of duties. 2.1 – The huge losses of duties linked to the progressive liberalization of 75.1% of Ghanean imports from the EU28-UK We have completely recalculated, tariff line by tariff line, the data presented in the quoted document of April 2016 and used again for the previous paper "Ghana's thoughtless ratification of the interim EPA, based on false data" of 9 August 2016 to better stick to the timetable for the 4 groups of products excluded from liberalization (D) or liberalized (A, B and C) and to the rates of ID provided in the EPA Agreement (0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 35%)4. Appendix 2 shows the detailed data. Let us underscore that the losses of custom revenues (import duties + VAT on imports) are the gap between the revenues without the EPA and their level with the EPA. Table 4 shows the addition to imports at EU28-UK FOB value of several components, with some change in relation to the previous assessment of 9 August 2016: - Addition of 30% to the FOB value to get the CIF value in Ghana. - Addition of imports and ID due to the growth of Ghanean population. Table 4 – Ghana's losses of duties on the liberalized imports from EU28-UK from 2020 to 2050 EU exports and ID in T (2015) Import duties (ID) on EU28-UK FOB exports to Ghana Euros million EU FOB value ID on EU FOB T5 (2020) T10 (2025) T15 (2030) T20 (2035) Imports and duties in West Africa CIF value for liberalized products (+30% on EU28-UK FOB values) 2382,3 196,2 148,7 74,4 7,7 0 Imports and duties in West Africa CIF value for liberalized products taking into account population's increase T à T5 T5 à T10 T10 à T15 T15 à T20 T20 à T35 Population growth rate: %/year 2,18% 1,98% 1,82% 1,71% 1,49% Imports growth rate " 1,45% 1,32% 1,21% 1,14% 0,99% T T5 T10 T15 T20 T35 Total liberalized imports 2382,3 2560 2733,6 2903 3072,3 3561,6 Imports duties with EPA 196,2 159,8 79,4 8,2 0 0 Imports and duties with trade diversion of liberalized products (+25% on WA CIF value) Total liberalized imports 2382,3 3200 3417 3628,8 3840,4 4452 Imports duties with EPA 196,2 199,8 99,3 10,3 0 0 Total annual losses of customs duties including on VAT on imports ID rate without liberalization 8,23% 8,23% 8,23% 8,23% 8,23% 8,23% ID value without liberalization 196,3 263,4 281,2 298,7 316,1 366,4 Imports + ID without EPA 2578,5 3463,4 3698,2 3927,5 4156,5 4818,4 VAT at 16% without EPA* 412,6 554,1 591,7 628,4 665 770,9 ID + VAT without EPA 604,2 817,5 872,9 927,1 981,1 1137,3 Imports + ID with EPA 2578,5 3399,8 3516,3 3639,1 3840,4 4452 VAT with EPA 412,6 544 562,6 582,3 614,5 712,3 VAT losses 0 10,1 29,1 46,1 50,5 58,6 ID losses 0 63,6 181,9 288,4 316,1 366,4 Annual and cumulative losses of customs revenues (ID + VAT) on liberalized imports with EPA from T5 to T20 (2020) and T35 (2050) Annual losses 0 73,7 211 334,5 366,6 425 Cumulative losses 0 73,7 795,5 2199,7 3967,3 9922,7 4 http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/october/tradoc_153869.pdf http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/october/tradoc_153870.pdf Group A covers essential social goods, basic necessities, basic commodities, capital goods and specific inputs; group B includes mainly inputs and intermediate goods and group C covers mainly final consumption goods. 4 - Addition of 25% to the CIF values to reflect the diversion of WA imports in favour of the EU28-UK and to the detriment of imports from the other WA States and from third countries. - Addition of losses in the value added tax (VAT) on imports since it is levied on the CIF value plus import duties. We have used the 16% standard rate of ECOWAS although it is now of 17.5% in Ghana but with many exemptions5. Table 5 summarizes the appendix 1 and shows that liberalized imports in the EPA would reach 75.1% of total imports from the EU28-UK on the basis of data for 2015 (instead of 80.4% previously estimated). Annual import duties on liberalized imports would fall with the EPA from €151 M in T – before addition of their increase due to the gap between EU FOB and Ghana CI, to population increase and to trade diversion – to 0 in T20. Table 5 – EU28-UK exports to Ghana in 2015 and reduction of import duties with the EPA € 1000 EU exports/Ghana Levels of import duties on EU FOB exports to Ghana Group Duty rate in EU FOB T (2015) T5 (2020) T10 (2025) T15 (2030) T20 (2035) D 0%,10%,20%, 35% 606644 117696 117696 117696 117696 117696 A 0 & 5% 783736 36001 0 0 0 0 B 0%, 5%, 10% 921459 90710 90710 45355 0 0 C 5% & 20% 128076 24179 23700 118509 5925 0 A+B+C 8.23% on average 1833271 150890 114410 57205 5925 0 A+B+C+D 11.05% on average 2429915 268587 232106 174901 123621 117696 ABC/ABCD 75,14% 56,18% 49,29% 32,71% 4,79% 0 Table 6 presents the annual and cumulative losses of customs duties on liberalized products (ID + VAT) from T5 (2015) to T35 (2050): the annual losses, taking into account the additions to the EU FOB value in 2015 – of the gap with the CIF value, the rise in imports due to the population increase and trade diversion – would rise from €73.7 M in T+5 (2020) to €211 M in T+10 (2025), €334.5 M in T+15 (2030), €366.6 M in T+20 (2035) and €425 M in T35 (2050). The cumulative losses would jump to €796 million in T10, €2.200 billion (bn) in T15, €3.967 bn in T20 and €9.923 bn in T35. Table 6 – Ghana's annual & cumulative losses of ID and VAT on imports from EU28-UK with EPA € million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Annual 73,7 91 112,2 138,5 170,5 211 231,4 Cumulative 73,7 164,7 276,9 415,4 585,9 795,9 1028,3 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 Annual 253,7 278,2 305 334,5 340,7 347 353,4 359,9 366,6 370,2 373,9 377,6 Cumulative 1282 1560,2 1865,2 2199,7 2540,4 2887,4 3240,8 3600,7 3967,3 4337,5 4711,4 5809 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Annual 381,3 385,1 388,9 392,8 396,7 400,6 404,6 408,6 412,6 416,7 420,8 425 Cumulative 5470,3 5855,4 6244,3 6637,1 7033,8 7434,4 7839 8247,6 8660,2 9076,9 9497,7 9922,7 2.2 – The import duties to pay on Ghanean exports to the other ECOWAS Member States The other ECOWAS Member States would be forced to tax their imports from Ghana on the basis of the ECOWAS CET (common external tariff) in order not to be flooded with EU products that Ghana would import duty free. Even if the share of Ghana exports to ECOWAS was limited to €842 M in FOB value in 20136, or only 8.8% of its total exports of €9.5 bn or one third (33.4%) of its exports to the EU28 of €2.8 bn, nevertheless these exports to the other ECOWAS Member States would have led to import duties of around €140 M in Ghana FOB value (implying an average import duty of 16.6%) and €161 M in ECOWAS CIF value (assuming an average gap of 15% between FOB and CIF). And these duties will rise to €178 M in 2020, taking into account 2/3 of the growth rate of the population between 2013 and 2020. After that the growth rate of these import duties will slow down to 1.32% between 2020 and 5 https://www.pwc.com/gh/en/assets/pdf/ghana-tax-facts-and-figures-2015.pdf 6 The ITC TradeMap does not provide data for 2014 or 2015. 5 2025, 1.21% between 2025 and 2030, 1.14% between 2030 and 2035 and 0,99% between 2035 and 2050. We see that these duties to ECOWAS exceed already in 2021 the GSP duties to pay to the EU28-UK without the EPA. Some claim that the other Member States of ECOWAS should not tax their imports of Ghana (and Ivory Coast) for their liberalized imports from the EU but only their domestic products. However, this restriction does not hold as their domestic products will benefit from lower production costs due to their duty free imports of inputs and equipment from the EU. Since Ghana imports of liberalized products of groups A taxed at 5% (for commodities, capital goods and specific inputs) and B taxed at 10% (on inputs and intermediate goods) have represented 93% of all imports of liberalized goods and 70.2% of all imports (including excluded products), this implies that the bulk of imports are not finished products. The petroleum products alone (in fact the whole HS chapter 27) accounted for 26.2% of Ghana total imports from the UK EU28- in 2015, which were taxed at 9.90% on average in 2015 and this alone would reduce significantly the cost of production and especially the transport cost of all domestic products. It remains to be seen however the extent to which the implementation of Ghana and Ivory Coast interim EPAs would lead to their eviction from ECOWAS and on the way the ECOWAS rules of origin would limit duty free imports from Ghana. 2.3 – The cumulative losses of customs revenues on imports from the EU and on exports to the other ECOWAS Member States, net of GSP duties without EPA Table 7 shows Ghana's total cumulative losses of customs revenues from 2015 to 2050 on imports from the EU28-UK due to the EPA plus the import duties to pay on exports to ECOWAS, net of the cumulative GSP+MFN duties to pay on Ghana's exports to the EU28-UK if the EPA is not implemented. Since Ghana will begin to liberalize imports from the EU28-UK from T5 (2020) – assuming the interim EPA schedule would be aligned on that of the regional EPA – it is from there that it will have to pay duties on its exports to other ECOWAS countries. Without taking into account these import duties on exports to ECOWAS, already in 2024 the cumulative losses due to the market opening of EPA would exceed the cumulative GSP+MFN duties without the EPA. Without taking into account these losses of duties on EU28-UK exports to ECOWAS, it is in 2022 that the cumulative losses due to Ghana's exports to the other ECOWAS countries with the EPA would exceed the cumulative GSP+MFN duties without the EPA. So that the net cumulative losses of duties on imports from the EU28-UK plus those to pay on exports to other ECOWAS States minus the GSP duties to pay on Ghana exports to the EU28-UK without EPA would explode to €1.900 bn in 2025, €3.391 bn in 2030, €5.924 bn in 2035, end of the liberalization period, and the extension to 2050 would skyrocket the net deficit to €13.702 bn! The conclusion is clear-cut: not to implement the interim EPA already ratified. Table 7 – Ghana's cumulative losses of duties on EU and ECOWAS net of GSP from 2015 to 2050 € 1000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 GSP 55,9 111,8 167,7 223,6 279,5 335,4 391,3 447,2 503,1 563 618,9 Loss on EU 73,7 164,7 276,9 415,4 585,9 795,9 Loss/Ecowas 178,1 358,5 541,3 726,5 914,2 1104,3 Total loss 251,8 523,2 818,2 1141,9 1500,1 1900,2 Net loss -55,9 -111,8 -167,7 -223,6 -279,5 -83,6 131,9 371 638,8 937,1 1281,3 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2050 GSP 674,8 730,7 786,6 842,5 898,4 954,3 1010,2 1066,1 1122 1177,9 2016,4 Loss on EU 1028,3 1282 1560,2 1865,2 2199,7 2540,4 2887,4 3240,8 3600,7 3967,3 9922,7 Loss/Ecowas 1296,7 1419,2 1688,6 1888,1 2090 2294,2 2500,8 2709,8 2921,1 3134,8 5796 Total loss 2325 2701,2 3248,8 3753,3 4289,7 4834,6 5388,2 5950,6 6521,8 7102,1 15718,7 Net loss 1650,2 1970,5 2462,2 2910,8 3391,3 3880,3 4378 4884,5 5399,8 5924,2 13702,3 6 2.4 – How then can we explain this large underestimate of Ghana ID losses if the WA EPA is not implemented? This large underestimate of ID losses by Ghana's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) is due to multiple factors among which the serious inadequacy of the impact study by the World Bank and the MOTI of January 2015 on the basis of 2013 data7. The large shortcomings of the TRIST model used are highlighted in the study itself and confirmed in the Fontagné's report.  Underestimate of the percentage of the value of products liberalized at 65% when we have shown it was of 75% in 2015 (for the EU28-UK).  Assumption that total government revenues, including ID and VAT on imports, would increase by 3% annually based on the growth rate calculated by the IMF, adding: "As other revenue sources increase in importance, the relative reliance on import revenues and hence the noticeable impact of import revenue losses from the EPA will fall". It is then easy to deduce that the EPA would increase them by 1.2% per year without the CET reform. Yet the latest IMF report on Ghana is less optimistic because growth has slowed down at 2.5% from the first 4 months of 2015 to those of 2016, and the share of import revenues from trade taxes has not fallen, increasing from 16.7% of tax revenues (excluding VAT on imports charged to indirect taxes) and 15.2% of budget revenues (excluding foreign grants) to 17.4% and 16.9% respectively anticipated for 20168.  According to the study "By the time the EPA has been fully implemented in 2035, annual imports are forecast to be 0.5 percent higher than they would be under the CET, but 0.5 percent lower than they are currently. Again, this is a static model, and as such does not account for any rise in imports due to causes other than the CET and EPA… Imports as well as other sources of revenue are likely to grow and be affected by other shocks not accounted for by the model over the same time period". It is contradictory to assume a 3% economic growth without any growth in imports! It is then easy to deduce that the EPA would increase imports and revenues by 1.2% per year without the CET reform. SOL estimated that Ghana's imports would increase by 61% from 2025 to 2035.  Large underestimate of trade diversion, between zero and 2.8% of imports by 2035 according to sectors, while the joint study by Fontagné and Laborde of IFPRI estimated it at 32.5 % for WA. SOL has retained 25%.  The study assumes that the EPA would increase by 77% the profitability of the manufacturing sector due to lower prices of imported inputs and equipment from the EU. Forgetting the loss of competitiveness due to the competition of finished goods imported from the EU. Yet the study acknowledges that "The EPA will result in an unambiguous reduction in preference margins within the ECOWAS market. However, the effect of this on Ghanaian exporters will depend on the specific products excluded from liberalization, and the products in which the European Union competes with Ghanaian exporters".  The study simply states that "the effect of EPA on Ghana's exports to other ECOWAS countries is ambiguous" when we have shown that it will result in payment of large ID. Yet the study itself acknowledges that Ghana's exports to the rest of ECOWAS are much larger than those to the EU: "The most important export market for employment is ECOWAS: exporters to ECOWAS employed 38.7 percent of the sample’s workers. The second most important market was the European Union: exporters to the European Union employed 4.9 percent of the sample’s workers". But the study assumes that the free movement of goods will continue in 7 MacLeod, Jamie; Von Uexkull, Jan Erik; Shui, Lulu, Assessing the economic impact of the ECOWAS CET and economic partnership agreement on Ghana, 1st January 2015, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/845041467999971258/Assessing-the-economic-impact-of-the- ECOWAS-CET-and-economic-partnership-agreement-on-Ghana 8 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16321.pdf 7 case of implementation of the regional EPA without questionning the implementation of the interim EPAs of Ghana and Ivory Coast. However, by signing the regional EPA, LDCs (except the Gambia and Mauritania) accepted reluctantly the correlative losses of tariff revenues without questioning the free movement of goods within ECOWAS. It is likely that they would now challenge their previous stance after the implementation of Ghana's and Ivory Coast's interim EPAs to which they were not associated and which are contradicting the provisions of the regional EPA, including on PAPED. III – The other constraints linked to the ratification of Ghana's interim EPA The ratification and implementation of the interim EPAs of Ghana and Ivory Coast would sign the end of the ECOWAS free movement of goods, of the Common External Tariff (CET) and more generally of the first objective of the regional EPA which was to foster regional integration. So that Ghana might be excluded from ECOWAS and from all or most of the benefits provided through its various common policies, of which the ECOWAP (common agricultural policy). Even if Ghana, having implemented the interim EPA, would clearly not be excluded from the EPADP (development assistance program of the EPA) for its national investment programme, the EPADP would be reduced after the Brexit, especially the part coming from the 11th EDF (European Development Fund) funded by the EU Member States (of which 14.5% by the UK) and not by the Community budget. Above all we cannot forget all the EPA constraints which would limit Ghana's policy space to foster its development:  Export taxes (article 16 of the iEPA and article 13 of the WA EPA): interdiction to raise export taxes beyond the level at T.  Standstill clause (article 15 of the iEPA and article 9 of the WA EPA): "Ghana may revise until 31 December 2011 its basic customs duties applying to goods originating in the European Community as long as the general incidence of those duties is not higher than the one of the duties specified in Annex 2". This provision would be in contradiction with the likely DG Trade proposal to align the specific provisions of the iEPA with those of the WA EPA, particularly on tariff offers as the maximum import duty of the iEPA was of 20% against 35% in the WA EPA.  The MFN clause (article 17 of the iEPA and article 6 of the EPA) would require Ghana to give the EU any more favorable treatment, particularly tariff reductions, resulting from agreements with other major developed or emerging countries.  The "rendez-vous" clause (article 44 of the iEPA and article 106 of the WA EPA) provides that, six months after the conclusion of the EPA, negotiations should begin to expand the EPA liberalizations to new issues that all DCs have refused at the WTO: services, intellectual property, investment, competition, government procurement, current payments and capital movements, etc.  Bilateral safeguards (article 25 of iEPA and article 22 of WA EPA): whereas safeguards are the same, the WA EPA provides that they will be applicable 4 years, with the possibility of renewing for additional 4 years but the iEPA provides that they will be available for at most 2 years with the possibility of renew at most for 2 years. However this paragraph 6.b of Article 25 is contradictory since it adds: "this measure may nevertheless be applied for a period of no more than four years and, when the circumstances justifying the imposition of safeguard measures continue to exist, be extended for a further four-year period". Let us add that the WA EPA provides that the EU takes exceptional safeguards when "the average 8 Community price of white sugar falls during two consecutive months below 80 percent of the Community average price for white sugar recorded during the previous marketing campaign".  Infant industry clause (article 23 of the WA EPA): the iEPA has not such specific article even though the article 16 on export taxes and 25 on bilateral safeguards of the iEPA mention the infant industry issue as an argument to increase them, an argument which is also mentioned in the corresponding articles 13 and 22 of the WA EPA. The article 23 of WA EPA underscores that "These measures may be applied for a period of up to eight (8) years. The application of the measures may be extended by a decision of the Joint Council of the EPA", which is much longer than "on temporary basis" in "exceptional circumstances" allowed for export taxes and the four years mentioned for bilateral safeguards.  Multilateral safeguards (article 21 of the WA EPA): the WA EPA provides that the EU would refrain to use the multilateral safeguards of GATT article XIX, the Safeguard agreement and article 5 of the Agrement on Agriculture (the special safeguard which can be triggered for excessive import quantities or too low import prices) but only for 5 years. Which implies that it could use them afterwards. There is no article for multilateral safeguards in the iEPA, and no allusion is made to the ECOWAS safeguards. Yet the complementary protection tax (CPT) – a surtax to the CET-ECOWAS – is applied to products imported from third countries in two cases: when the volume of imports of a product in a year increases by more than or equal to 25% than the average of imports of the last three years, or when the average CIF price over one month of an imported product falls below 80% of the average import prices of the last three years. ECOWAS countries may set the level of the CPT up to a maximum of 70%, within each ECOWAS country’s bound MFN level within the WTO. So that we see that this CPT is much broader than the bilateral safeguards of the WA EPA or the iEPAS as it applies also to low import prices and that the WA EPA and IC iEPA prevent to use this ECOWAS CPT to imports from the EU, in contradiction with ECOWAS regional integration.  Prohibition of quantitative restrictions (article 18 of the iEPA and article 34 of WA EPA), which is even more abnormal that the EU uses them for its agricultural products in its other free trade agreements. As the EU sensitive products concern temperate products not exported by WA (of which Ghana), with the exception of sugar which is a product of both climates, this provision penalizes only IC.  The sharp drop in tax revenues would reduce all budgets devoted to education, health, small farmers and environment protection. The more so as Ghana, as the rest of WA, is already facing three structural challenges: population explosion, climate change and food deficit, even with the EU if we exclude cocoa when the average food deficit was of €75.6 million from 2010 to 2015. To which we could add the collapse in the last two years of most commodities prices except cocoa, of which of oil products (having accounted for 33.9% of Ghana's total exports to the EU28-RU in 2015).  Without forgetting that Ghana will suffer from the EU dumping of its agricultural products as the EPA will liberalize more than 50% of Ghana imports of agricultural products from the EU at T20. In 2013 the EU subsidies to its agricultural exports to Ghana reached €70.9 million, of which €36 million to bovine meat, €19.3 million to poultry meat, €8.3 million to cereals, €5.4 million to dairy products and €2 million to pig meat. The more so as the EU has refused to deal with the issue of its domestic agricultural subsidies in the EPA, that it refuses to deal as well at the WTO, alleging that most of them are fully decoupled and notified in the green box. IV – Conclusion: two favorable alternatives to the EPA exist that the EU refuses The first alternative would be to get a WTO waiver for all sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) EPAs, of which to West Africa and the two interim EPAs, as the United States (US) example which got 9 a WTO consensus in 2015 to renew for 10 years its preferential trade agreement with SSA, with a formal approval of the EU Council and Parliament. This would be easily obtained for the EU since the banana war has been buried since December 2009 with Andean and Central American exporting countries which were at the origin of the EU condemnation at the WTO and the abandonment of the Lomé conventions for the Cotonou Agreement establishing the EPAs. The second would be to get the GSP+ status for Ghana (and also IC and Nigeria), which should not pose a legal objection since they have now signed or ratified the 27 international conventions required9 and since they fulfill the criteria of economic vulnerability, which was confirmed by a DG Trade e-mail of 13 June 2016. Bern Lange, President of the European Parliament's INTA Committee, has also suggested to Kenya file its request for GSP+ as an alternative to the East Africa EPA since Tanzania and Burundi refuse to sign. Despite the disasters to be expected from the EPA, the present Ghanean politicians would no longer be there, as soon as 2025, to explain their decision. And the present EU Ambassador to Ghana, William Hanna, would himself not be accountable of his declaration that the EPA ratification "is a win/win deal for Ghana and the European Union"10. Appendix 1 – GSP duties that Ghana would have had to pay to the EU28 or the EU28-UK in 2015 without EPA Euros EU28 Imports from Ghana EU28-UK imports from Ghana Harmonised System chapters Imports GSP duties GSP rate Imports GSP duties GSP rate (%) 01- Live animals 86588 0 78329 0 02- Meats 03- Fish 17717677 1232361 6,96% 17625557 1226739 6,96% 04- Dairy produce 235 235 05- Products of animal origin 0 0 06- Live trees and other plants 1792326 8841 0,49% 1792326 8841 0,49% 07- Vegetables 20306557 1012566 4,99% 5873202 293073 4,99% 08- Fruits 105698454 7818292 7,40% 60233111 4457250 7,40% 09- Coffee, tea, spices 163786 155 0,09% 152282 137 0,09% 10 - Cereals 3904 2228 11- Milling products 1068059 215509 20,18% 400676 80856 20,18% 12- Oilseeds 39102639 37 #0 38981749 #0 13- Lac, gums, resins 13481 0 2096 14- Vegetable plaiting materials 1746053 0 1674898 15- Animal and vegetable fats and oils 32999720 1383772 4,19% 31527995 1321023 4,19% 16- Preparations of meats and fish 170626191 34978369 20,50% 91256680 18707619 20,50% 17- Sugars and sugar confectionery 1265 123 18- Cocoa and cocoa preparations 1045333230 17835435 1,71% 975139411 16366644 1,68% 19- Preparations of cereals 2125437 218615 10,29% 165912 17072 10,29% 20- Preparations of vegetables, fruit 6445262 625871 9,71% 6139549 596150 9,71% 21- Miscellaneous edible preparations 1067418 91418 8,56% 661031 56584 8,56% 22- Beverages 483906 24371 5,04% 402073 20264 5,04% 23- Residues, oilseeds meals 251951 0 251951 24- Tobacco Sub-total 01-24 1446981718 65445612 4,52% 1232361414 43152252 3,50% 25- Salt, sulphur, earths, cement 7805 0 7805 0 26- Ores, slag and ash 13464988 0 13464988 0 27- Mineral fuels, mineral oils 759304462 0 717034108 0 28- Inorganic chemicals 596 0 596 0 29- Organic chemicals 2812 0 423 0 30- Pharmaceutical products 217536 0 33824 0 9 The list of the 27 conventions is given at the end of the EU impact assessment report of January 2016 on the GSP countries and Ghana's signature or ratification can be checked on 3 United Nations websites: https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/costa_rica/documents/eu_costa_rica/european_commission._(2016)._report_o n_the_generalised_scheme_of_preferences_during_the_period_2014-2015..pdf) https://treaties.un.org/Pages/TreatyParticipantSearch.aspx?clang=_en; http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:11200:0::NO:11200:P11200_COUNTRY_ID:103231 https://cites.org/eng/disc/parties/chronolo.php 10 https://www.facebook.com/EuDelegationToGhana/posts/627971517370730 10