GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 1 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-Term Planning GENERATION ADEQUACY PLAN 2011 – 2020 GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 2 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................4 Foreword............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. 1. Introduction .........................................................................................5 2. Generation adequacy forecast methodology, according to ENTSO/E .........7 2.1 Terminology ........................................................................................... ..7 2.1.1 Load...................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Net Generation Capacity (NGC)............................................................ 8 2.1.3 Unavailable Capacity (UC)..................................................................... 8 2.1.4 Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)......................................................... 8 2.1.5 Remaining Capacity (RC)....................................................................... 8 2.1.6 Reference points ................................................................................... 8 2.1.7 Spare capacity (SC)................................................................................ 8 2.1.8 Load management (LM)......................................................................... 9 2.1.9 Margin against peak load (MaPL)........................................................... 9 2.1.10 Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM) ....................................................... 9 2.1.11 Generation adequacy (GA) .................................................................. 10 2.2 Generation adequacy forecast ..................................................................10 3 Electricity load forecast....................................................................... 12 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................12 3.2 Previous and current load development....................................................12 3.3 Load profile.............................................................................................13 3.4 Electricity forecast (2011-2020) ...............................................................17 3.5 Demand forecast for the various growth scenarios (period 2011 – 2020)..18 4 Generation capacity forecast ................................................................ 22 4.1 Electricity generation in Kosovo..............................................................22 4.2 Development of generation capacities (2011 –2020).................................25 4.2.1 Base scenario for the development of generation capacities................. 25 4.2.2 Conservative scenario for the development of new generation capacities 28 4.3 Available generation capacity forecast 2011-2020.....................................29 4.3.1 Unutilized capacity.............................................................................. 29 4.3.2 Periodic overhauls............................................................................... 30 4.3.3 Capacities reserved for ancillary services............................................. 31 4.3.4 Capacity reductions as a consequence of unplanned interruptions........ 34 4.3.5 Available generation capacities, according to the base scenario (MEM) 34 4.3.6 Available generation capacities, according to the conservative scenario36 5. Generation adequacy ........................................................................... 39 5.1 Current state............................................................................................39 5.2 Generation Adequacy Forecast for the period 2011 - 2020 .......................41 GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 3 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning 5.3 Impacts on the development of generation adequacy (2011-2020).............47 5.4 General conclusion on generation adequacy (2011-2020)..........................48 6. System adequacy................................................................................. 53 6.1 Methodology............................................................................................53 6.2 System adequacy forecast 2011-2020 ........................................................54 6.3 General Conclusions for the System Adequacy (2011-2020)......................57 Bibliography ............................................................................................ 59 ANNEX A ................................................................................................ 60 GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 4 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning ABBREVIATIONS KOSTT – Kosovo Transmission, System and Market Operator J.S.C. MEM – Ministry of Energy and Mining KEK – Kosovo Energy Corporation J.S.C DSO – Distribution System Operator ERO – Energy Regulatory Office ENTSO/E – European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity TDP – Transmission Development Plan NGC – Net Generation Capacity RAC – Reliably Available Capacity RC – Remaining Capacity RS C- Reserve Capacity LM – Load management MPL – Margin against Peak Load RMA – Referent Margin Adequacy GDP – Gross Domestic Production SITC- Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 5 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning Preface This document is drafted by the Kosovo Transmission, System and Market Operator (KOSTT), pursuant to Article 9 of the Planning Code – Grid Code. The purpose of this document is to present to all electricity market participants and the Energy Regulatory Office an assessment of generation capacities of the electricity system of the Republic of Kosovo, required to meet the load demand for the period 2011-2020. 1. Introduction The main role of the electricity systems is to provide a safe and qualitative supply of electricity for all consumers, whereas generation, which is part of this system, plays an essential role in this regard. Electricity supply interruptions faced by consumers are mostly caused due to insufficient electricity generation capacities. Unstable and interrupted electricity supply has a direct influence in the economy and all electricity consumption sectors. As the development of new generation capacities requires much time, a periodic assessment of generation adequacy, on mid-term and long-term basis, is necessary to provide appropriate and timely information regarding supply conditions and the need for the development of new generation capacities. Secure and reliable electricity supply is an absolute necessity for the state of Kosovo and its economy. To accomplish this goal, it is fundamental for Kosovo to have sufficient electricity generation capacities, to meet both its short-term and long-term electricity demand forecasts. KOSTT, as independent Transmission System Operator, pursuant to the Grid Code, is obliged to publish development projections to the Kosovo’s electricity system. One of the rather significant documents in the planning concept developed by KOSTT is the Generation Adequacy Plan. This document covers a 10-year period, with specific disaggregated data on each year covered. This plan mainly identifies electricity generation capacities required to meet the demand, within the required reliability standards, including the new generation capacities the installation of which is foreseen during the 10-year period. Pursuant to Article 9.2.6.1 of the GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 6 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning Planning Code (Grid Code) shall be reviewed and submitted to the ERO every two years, by the end of September, and will cover a 10-year period. The main sources of information and data used for the compilation of the Generation Adequacy Plan are the following documents compiled by KOSTT: i. Annual electricity balance (2011) ii. Long-term electricity balance (2011-2020) iii. Transmission development plan (2011-2020) Generation Adequacy Plan 2011-2020 is structured around the following segments: • Generation adequacy assessment methodology • Load forecast • Generation capacity forecast • Generation adequacy and • Transmission adequacy GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 7 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning 2. Generation adequacy forecast methodology, according to ENTSO/E This document is focused on long-term assessment of security of supply from the aspect of the generation to load ratio. This document assesses, in general, the network availability in the context of electricity imports, since the import will be the means for covering electricity consumption in the Kosovo Electricity System. The Transmission Development Plan 2011-2020 assesses the adequacy of the transmission grid currently and makes assumptions on its desired state in 10 years. According to the ENTSO/E methodology, Generation Adequacy Assessment is based on the comparison between the load and the generation capacities in certain time-bound reference points. The characteristic load of an electricity system is determined for a unique referent period, synchronized throughout the ENTSO/E grid. The selected reference time points are: • Third Wednesday of January, at 11.00 and 19.00, and • Third Wednesday of July, at 11.00 The methodology developed by ENTSO/E assesses the level of residual generation capacities necessary to ensure an adequate level of supply reliability. 2.1 Terminology Following are the meanings of terms used in the generation adequacy assessment, according to the ENTSO/E methodology: 2.1.1 Load Load on a power system is the net (excluding consumption of power plants´ auxiliaries, but including network losses) consumption corresponding to the hourly average active power GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 8 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning absorbed by all installations connected to the transmission or distribution network, excluding the pumps of the pumped-storage stations. 2.1.2 Net Generation Capacity (NGC) NGC of a power station is the maximum electrical net active power it can produce continuously throughout a long period of operation in normal conditions. 2.1.3 Unavailable Capacity (UC) It is the part of NGC that is not reliably available to power plant operators due to limitations of the output power of power plants. It consists of the Non-Usable Capacity, as a result of Plant Maintenance and Overhauls, Outages, Unavailability of primary sources, System Operator ancillary services, etc. 2.1.4 Reliably Available Capacity (RAC) RAC on a power system is the difference between NGC and Unavailable Capacity. RAC is the part of NGC actually available to cover the load at a reference point. (RAC = NGC – UC) 2.1.5 Remaining Capacity (RC) RC on a power system is the difference between RAC and Load. RC is the part of NGC left on the system to cover any unexpected load variation and unplanned outages at a reference point. (RC = RAC – RL) 2.1.6 Reference points Reference points are the specific dates and times for which power data are collected. These Points are deemed to be sufficiently characteristic for the entire studied period in confining the data collection to only those corresponding with reference points. 2.1.7 Spare capacity (SC) Spare capacity (SC) is the part of NGC which should be kept available at reference points to ensure the security of supply in most situations. Spare capacity is supposed to cover a GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 9 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning 1% risk of shortfall on a power system. To guarantee the operation of 99% of situations, reserve capacity is estimated by the TSOs in each country, depending on its system features; and for a set of countries (regions or while ENTSO-E) as 5% of NGC (SC = 5%NGC) 2.1.8 Load management (LM) LM is the potential deliberate load reduction available at peak load to balance the system and ensure reliability. In this case only one long-term forecast scenario for load is referred to. 2.1.9 Margin against peak load (MaPL) MaPL si the difference between the load at the reference points RL and the peak load over the period (season) PLs ( Peak Load – seasonal) in which the reference point is located (characteristic reference date). Actually MaPL represents the Margin against Seasonal Peak Load for each reference point. That means 1 summer value (defined as the difference between the Load at the summer reference point and the forecasted summer peak load (peak load of quarter 2 and 3 of the reported year) and 2 winter values (defined as the difference between Load at each winter reference point and the forecasted winter peak load (peak load of quarter 1 and 4 of the reported year). (MaPL=PLs - RL) 2.1.10 Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM) ARM is the part of NGC that should be kept available at all time to ensure the security of supply on the whole period each reference point is representative of. ARM is calculated in order to cover the increase of load from the reference time point to the peak load and demand variations or longer term generation outages not covered by operational reserves. ARM is accounting for unexpected events affecting load and generation. GENERATION ADEQUACY DT-OS-15 PLAN 2011-2020 ver. 0.2 page 10 of 62 Department; SYSTEM OPERATOR Sector: System Development and Long-term Planning ARM in an individual country is equal to Spare Capacity SC plus the related MaPL (ARM= SC + MaPL). 2.1.11 Generation adequacy (GA) Generation adequacy of a power system is an assessment of the ability of the generation on the power system to match the consumption on the same power system. (GA = ARM – RC) 2.2 Generation adequacy forecast Generation adequacy analysis is based on the comparison between the available generation capacity and the load. Generation adequacy forecast for reference points in normal operation conditions of the electricity system is forecasted at the level of the remaining capacity (RC) for the respective reference points. • When Remaining Capacity is positive (RC>0), it means that some spare generating capacity is likely to be available on the power system under normal conditions. • When Remaining Capacity is negative (RC<0), it means that the power system is likely to be short of generating capacity under normal conditions. Seasonal generation adequacy forecast in most of situations is assessed through the seasonal extension of the generation adequacy forecast on a power system, by comparison of the related Remaining Capacity (RC) and Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM). • When Remaining Capacity is over or equal to Reference Adequacy Margin, it means that some generating capacity is likely to be available for export on the power system. (RC≥ARM).