& A is ^ "If fT-fa *->V f rCw^^i^Jik^ •^i — . /v • • Fourth Edition - ♦ NATIONS PLAY Analyzing International Politics lohn Spanier GAMES NATIONS PLAY GAMES NATIONS PLAY FOURTH EDITION ANALYZING INTERNATIONAL POLITICS John Spanier HOLT, RINEHART AND WINSTON New York Chicago San Francisco Philadelphia Montreal Toronto London Sydney Tokyo Mexico City Riode Janeiro Madrid Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Spanier, John W Games nations play. Bibliography: p. 578 Includes index. 1. International relations. I. Title. JX1391.S7 1981 327 81-996 ISBN 0-03-058172-9 AACR2 Copyright © 1972, 1975 by Praeger Publishers, Inc.; © 1978 by Praeger Publishers, A Division of Holt, Rinehart and Winston; © 1981 by CBS College Publishing Address correspondence to: 383 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017 All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America Published simultaneously in Canada 12345 144 987654321 CBS COLLEGE PUBLISHING Holt, Rinehart and Winston The Dryden Press Saunders College Publishing PREFACE As its title suggests, the purpose of this book is to teach the reader— primarily the college student—how to think about international pol- itics. The average undergraduate takes a course in international politics primarily to gain some understanding of the contemporary world and, in particular, of the role played by his or her own country. Many, of course, are interested in finding out more about particular events and issues, such as the Cold War, detente, Afghanistan, Iran, OPEC, the Middle East, or SALT. The one thing that many students do not expect when they enroll in a course of international politics is abstract analyses of the nature of such politics in order to learn how to analyze events for themselves. It is precisely because current events so soon become "ancient history" that my aim has been to provide readers with those tools of analysis that will enable them to analyze tomorrow's events for themselves. I hope that, in the end, they will have gained a deeper comprehension of some of the external and internal problems that states confront and why frequently they act as they do, whether they are capitalist or communist, highly industrialized or economically underdeveloped. This book is thus about the "games nations play." Its objective, further- more, is to convey to the student that there are many different ways to think about the subject, not simply one "right" way. To this end, I employ three levels of analysis; one focused on the state system, with its emphasis on balance of power; one focused on the national system, with its domestic priorities; and one focused on the decision-making system, with its dependence both on policy makers' per- ceptions of reality and on the institutions that formulate and execute policy. This three-dimensional approach, which involves a modification of Kenneth N. Waltz's "three images" and J. David Singer's "levels of analysis," enables the student to v PREFACE view a single policy or set of policies from three different—and often conflicting— perspectives. It is hoped that this approach will afford him or her a greater under- standing of the complexities of the international system, as well as a more sophis- ticated basis for prediction, criticism, and interpretation of nations' behavior and the interactions among nation-states. This threefold scheme also reflects my own view that international events must be analyzed not only in the context of the environment, or state system, in which they occur but also in terms of the purposes of nations and their general behavior as it is shaped by their societies and the specific policy makers who conduct foreign policy at particular times. The environment has a powerful impact upon states—for example, upon their objectives and their degrees of choice among al- ternative policies—but their internal character and politics also exert a major in- fluence. Although Clausewitz somewhat exaggerated, we can paraphrase him and say that foreign policy is the conduct of domestic politics by other means. This emphasis on the state system does not mean a neglect of nonstate actors, transnational forces, or analysis of "world order" politics. Since the disil- lusionment of Vietnam and the OPEC shock of 1973, emphasis on interdependence and "new forces" in world politics has become quite fashionable. Yet the focus of our analysis remains on interstate politics. For the scholar familiar with the "new forces" this book may therefore appear dated and old-fashioned. But for the readers for whom it was written, who are unfamiliar with the state system and the behavior of the states that have been the primary international actors for more than 300 years, knowledge of the "older forces" is a prerequisite for understanding. Such knowledge is also indispensable for any comprehension and evaluation of the "new international politics." How can such comprehension be achieved when the student is unaware of why some scholars are so critical of the traditional state system and at times become fervent advocates of the "new forces"? Third, and closely related to such evaluation, the student has to make up his or her own mind on a funda- mental issue posed by critics of the state-centered analysis: ... it is an open question which is the most striking feature of the international order—the extent and rapidity of change or the astonishing persistence of tradition. As a matter of fact, if one can criticize some recent studies it is not because they fail to take account of change but because they exaggerate its impact to the point of losing sight of the aspects of continuity and of successful resistance to change that are equally conspicuous in our day.1 My views on this matter will be found in a detailed analysis of interdependence in Chapter 20. It should be clear, then, that this book is not a book on American foreign policy or a contemporary diplomatic history. Nevertheless, a sufficient amount of historical material is interwoven for two purposes. One is to give the student a broad picture of the modern era, for, although the world is truly one that the present generation did not make, it is nonetheless one with which it must cope. An understanding of the forces and events that have shaped the modern world should help to make this generation more successful in coping with it than past PREFACE generations have been. Second, and perhaps even more important, analytical frame- works and concepts are useless unless they have some bearing on the "real" world. Some years ago William Newman wrote that "history is useless, or even in a very real sense nonexistent, without some degree of conceptualization of what is to be looked for; at the same time the true meaning and understanding of a concept can only come from a detailed knowledge of those events that are relevant to that concept.2 In writing a book, the author is always indebted to many people. The undergraduates at the University of Florida who over the years have taken my introductory international-politics course and have been exposed to a number of different ways of organizing the material—and who have often been kind and gentle in suggesting helpful improvements and criticisms—are certainly entitled to a word of thanks. This book has also been immeasurably improved by my editor, whose suggestions on substance, organization, and style have been invaluable. J.S. Gainesville, Florida January 1981 'Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration i Baltimore: John Hopkins Press, 1962), p. xvii. 'William J. Newman, The Balance of Power in the Inter-War Years, 1919-1939 (New York: Random House, 1968), p. ix. CONTENTS I ANALYTIC APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 1 1 Making Sense of International Politics 3 For Doves and Hawks—as Well as Parrots, Cuckoos, and Vultures 3 2The Three Levels of Analysis: A Framework forthe Study of International Politics 10 The Systematic Level 10 The Nation-State Level 18 The Decision-Making Level 27 ix