FUNDAMENTALS OF STRATEGIC WEAPONS Offense and Defense Systems The Gods must weep . .. War is Father of All . . . FUNDAMENTALS OF STRAT EGle WEAPONS Offense and Defense Systems James N. Constant • '. - , .' ~ : 1981 MART INUS NUHOFF PUBLISHERS THE HAGUE / BOSTON I LONDON Distributors: jor the United States and Canada Kluwer Boston, Inc. 190 Old Derby Street Hingham, MA 02043 USA jor all other countries Kluwer Academic Publishers Group Distribution Center P.O. Box 322 3300 AH Dordrecht The Netherlands Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 80-83263 ISBN 978-94-015-0157-6 ISBN 978-94-015-0649-6 (eBook) DOl 10.1007/978-94-015-0649-6 Copyright © 1981 by Martinus Ny'hoff Publishers bv, The Hague. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 15t edition 1981 All rights reserved. No part oj this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any jorm or by atry means, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission oj the publisher, Martinus Nijhojj Publishers bv, P. O. Box 566, 2501 CN The Hague, The Netherlands. Preface The purpose of this book is to provide graduate students, professional engineers, military officers, and weapons-systems planners with a comprehensive grounding in the technology, evolution, functions, costs, impacts on society, utility, and limi tations of modern strategic weapons systems. Since the subject is often left to the specialists, this work should introduce the general reader to the fundamentals of such systems in an informed manner. Nowadays the intense interaction of means and ends sym bolized by strategic weapons has stimulated a changing dis cipline in which new missile systems and the intricate logic of nuclear force and counterforce hold the stage alongside the truths of conflict, alliances, fears, games, and subtle gains and losses. Many readers with new personal interest or public responsibility in this complex field will require an overall guide to it. This book will not prepare the reader to become an expert in the vast subject of strategic weapons systems. It will, however, enable him to understand, evaluate, and form reasonable opinions about these systems, their capabilities and effective ness. The subject is dealt with more from the viewpoint of the user (investor) rather than the architect (systems engineer) and builder (design engineer). While the user will be concerned with both political as well as technical options which may be available to solve a problem, the systems and design engineers are concerned with analyzing and building technological weapons devices once their requirements are generally known. Basic to the book's purpose is the underlying effort to expose the technical data used in decisions involving the selection, design, and operation of weapons systems. The book originated in notes and articles which I have found helpful in analyzing and evaluating the performance and effectiveness of a variety of weapons systems. I am greatly indebted to the numerous authors whose works are referenced v VI Preface at the close of the chapters. My own work-necessarily con densed-rests on the solid foundation of these references. I wish also to thank those authors and their publishers who have so generously allowed me to reproduce or adapt illustrations from their publications. Since it is presented from the user's viewpoint, this work reduces the many theoretical niceties to practical terms. Any responsibility for oversight or error is mine alone. Suggestions and comments, whether constructive or critical, are invited from readers. It is hoped that these comments will keep pos sible future revisions to the work abreast of the developing technologies. Claremont, California James Nickolas Constant January, 1980 Table of Contents (Part Two) PREFACE v INTRODUCTION XVII CHAPTER 1. STRATEGIC SYSTEMS AND WAR GAMES 1.1. U.S. Strategic Systems 4 1.1.1. Intelligence and Warning 5 1.1.1.1. Ground Radars 5 1.1.1.2. Airborne Radars 9 1.1.1.3. Satellites 9 1.1.2. Defense . . . . . . 10 1.1.2.1. Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) 11 1.1.2.2. Anti-Satellite 15 1.1.2.3. Anti-Aircraft .... 15 1.1.3. Offense . . .. .... 16 1.1.3.1. International Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) .... 16 1.1.3.2. Sea-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) .... 20 1.1.3.3. Strategic Bombers and Cruise Missiles 22 1.2. The Game ...... 24 1.2.1. Geometric Technique 29 l.2.2. Monte-Carlo Approach 31 l.2.3. Probabilistic Technique 33 l.2.3.l. Single-Shot Kill Probability 33 l.2.3.2. Lethal Area Approach 34 l.2.3.3. Vulnerable Area Approach 36 l.2.3.4. Cumulative Kill Probability 37 l.3. Game Strategies 38 1.4. Systems Evaluation 41 l. 4.l. Strategic Policy 41 l.4.2. Mission Requirements 42 l.4.3. Systems Engineering 43 l.4.3.l. Systems Analysis 43 l.4.3.2. Systems Development 45 VII VIII Table of Contents 1.4.4. System Performance 45 1.4.5. System Cost 48 1.4.6. Value Model 49 1.4.6.1. Factors Normalization 53 1.4.6.2. Weightings Assignments 55 1.4.7. Value Sensitivity Assessment 56 References 58 CHAPTER 2. ABM DEFENSE 2.1. Safeguard System 71 2.1.1. Perimeter Acquisition Radar (PAR) 72 2.1.2. Missile-Site Radar (MSR) 75 2.1.3. Spartan Interceptor 78 2.1.4. Sprint Interceptor 79 2.1.5. Data-Processing System (DPS) 80 2.1.6. Costs 82 2.2. Radar Operations 83 2.2.1. The General Radar Equation 84 2.2.2. Probability of Detection and False Alarm 88 2.2.3. Target Detection 91 2.2.4. Tracking Operation 92 2.2.5. Beacon and Telemetry Operations 93 2.2.6. Jamming Environment 94 2.2.7. Chaff Environment 95 2.2.7.1. Chaff Glint 98 2.2.8. Nuclear Environment 99 2.2.9. Radar Waveforms 101 2.2.10. Resolution 103 2.2.11. Accuracy 106 2.3. Computer Operations 110 2.3.1. Communications 113 2.3.2. Search, Target Selection, and Tracking 115 2.3.2.1. Search 115 2.3.2.2. Target Selection 116 2.3.2.3. Target Tracking 116 2.3.3. Radar Control 117 2.3.4. Interceptor Guidance 118 2.3.5. Signal Processing 118 2.3.6. Testing 119 2.3.7. Local Display and Input/Output 120 2.3.8. Human Operator 120 2.4. Interceptor Operations 121 Table of Contents IX 2.4.1. Parabolic Trajectory 122 2.4.2. Navigational Triangle 124 2.4.2.1. Pursuit Course 127 2.4.2.2. Lead Pursuit Course 127 2.4.2.3. Lead Collision Course 128 2.4.3. Guidance 128 2.4.3.1. Preset Guidance 129 2.4.3.2. Command Guidance 131 2.4.3.3. Terminal Guidance 132 2.4.4. Kill Mechanisms 133 2.4.4.1. Conventional Warheads 133 2.4.4.2. Nuclear Warheads 134 References 137 CHAPTER 3. ABM SYSTEM DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE 3.1. System Requirements 143 3.1.1. Data Accuracy 144 3.1.2. Target Characteristics 145 3.1.3. Target Trajectory and Dynamics 146 3.1.4. Tracking Geometry 146 3.1.5. Subsystem Location 147 3.1.6. Array Characteristics 147 3.2. The Radar Design Problem 154 3.2.1. Radar Performance Factors 155 3.2.1.1. Detection 155 3.2.1.2. Resolution 156 3.2.1.3. Measurement Accuracy 158 3.2.1.4. Reliability Considerations 159 3.2.1.5. Operation in Adverse Environment 159 3.2.2. Array Advantages and Disadvantages 160 3.2.3. Conclusions 161 3.3. Error Analysis 162 3.3.1. Error Components 163 3.3.2. Total Target Error 165 3.4. Smoothing of Position and Velocity Data 166 3.5. Noise Reduction 168 3.5.1. General Filter Equation 168 3.5.2. Midpoint Filter 169 3.5.3. Curvefitting error 171 3.5.4. Computation Time 172 3.6. Error Model 172