December 2011 Citing the complete report: Richter-Menge, J., M.O. Jeffries and J.E. Overland, Eds., 2011: Arctic Report Card 2011, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard. Citing an essay (example): Derksen, C. and R. Brown, 2011: Snow [in Arctic Report Card 2011], http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard. 1 Authors and Affiliations K. R. Arrigo, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA I. Ashik, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia G. Bernhard, Biospherical Instruments, San Diego, CA A. Beszczynska-Moeller, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany U. S. Bhatt, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA B. A. Bluhm, School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA J. E. Box, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA L. Brown, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change and Department of Geography & Environmental Management University of Waterloo, Canada R. Brown, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada L. Bruhwiler, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO T. V. Callaghan, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Abisko Naturvetenskapliga Station, Abisko, Sweden J. Cappelen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark E. Carmack, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada C. Chen, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA H. H. Christiansen, Geology Department, University Centre in Svalbard, UNIS, Norway and Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway J. C. Comiso, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA L. W. Cooper, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons, Maryland, 20688 USA D. Decker, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA C. Derksen, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada E. Dlugokencky, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO D. S. Drozdov, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen, Russia C. Duguay, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change and Department of Geography & Environmental Management University of Waterloo, Canada J. Eert, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada 2 H. E. Epstein, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA X. Fettweis, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium V. Fioletov, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada B. C. Forbes, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland K. E. Frey, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA I. Frolov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia M. Gill, Environment Canada, Whitehorse, Canada W. A. Gould, USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, San Juan, PR R. R. Gradinger, School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA J. M. Grebmeier, Center for Environmental Science, University of Maryland, Solomons, MD, USA; Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons, Maryland, 20688 USA J. -U. Grooß, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany A. Gunn, 368 Roland Road, Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada V8K 1V1 D. Hall, Department of Geology, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark E. Hanna, Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, UK A. Heikkilä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland G. H. R. Henry, Geography Department, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada R. M. Holmes, Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA M. Itoh, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan G. J. Jia, RCE-TEA, CAS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China B. Johnsen, Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Østerås, Norway B. V. Jørgensen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark K. -K. Kang, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change and Department of Geography & Environmental Management University of Waterloo, Canada J. Key, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI H. Kheyrollah Pour, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change and Department of Geography & Environmental Management University of Waterloo, Canada A. L. Kholodov, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA 3 T. Kikuchi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan N. T. Knudsen, Department of Geology, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark S. V. Kokelj, Water Resources Division, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Yellowknife, NWT, Canada T. Koskela, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland R. Krishfield, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA K. L. Laidre, Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA K. Lakkala, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Arctic Research Centre, Sodankylä, Finland R. B. Lammers, Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 T. C. Lantz, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada W. H. Lipscomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA Y. Liu, Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI C. Lund Myhre, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway G. Manney, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM S. S. Marchenko, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA J. Maslanik, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 J. T. Mathis, School of Fisheries and Ocean Science & Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks AK 99709 J. W. McClelland, University of Texas at Austin, Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX F. McLaughlin, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada W. Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 S. H. Mernild, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA S. E. Moore, NOAA/Fisheries, Office of Science & Technology, Seattle, Washington, 98115 USA T. Mote, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA R. Müller, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany S. Nishino, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan S. F. Oberbauer, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA N. G. Oberman, MIRECO Mining Company, Syktyvkar, Russia 4 J. Overland, NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA D. Perovich, ERDC - CRREL, 72 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755; Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover NH 03755 B. J. Peterson, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA J. E. Pinzon, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA A. Proshutinsky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA B. Rabe, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada P. A. Raymond, Yale University, New Haven, CT M. K. Raynolds, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA M. Rex, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany E. Richardson, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada J. Richter-Menge, ERDC - CRREL, 72 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755 V. E. Romanovsky, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA D. Russell, Yukon College, Box 10038 Whitehorse YT, Canada Y1A 7A1 U. Schauer, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany M. Sharp, University of Alberta, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences G. R. Shaver, Ecosystem Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA A. I. Shiklomanov, Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 N. I. Shiklomanov, Department of Geography, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA K. Shimada, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany S. L. Smith, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada V. Sokolov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia M. Steele, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA N. Steiner, City College of New York, New York, NY, USA S. E. Tank, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA M. Tedesco, City College of New York, New York, NY, USA P. O. Thomas, US Marine Mammal Commission, Bethesda, MD USA M. -L. Timmermans, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 5 J. Toole, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA C. J. Tucker, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA C. E. Tweedie, Department of Biology, The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, USA R. S. W. van de Wal, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands D. Vongraven, Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Center, Tromso, Norway J. Wahr, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA D. A. Walker, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA J. Walsh, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK M. Wang, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA P. J. Webber, Department of Plant Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA W. Williams, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada G. Wolken, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys R. Woodgate, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA M. Yamamoto-Kawai, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan A. V. Zhulidov, South Russia Center for Preparation and Implementation of International Projects, Rostov- on-Don, Russia S. Zimmermann, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada 6 Executive Summary November 23, 2011 Overview The Arctic Report Card (www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/) considers a wide range of environmental observations throughout the Arctic, and is updated annually. A major conclusion of the 2011 Report is that there are now a sufficient number of years of data to indicate a shift in the Arctic Ocean system since 2006. This shifted is characterized by the persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of the sea ice cover, and a warmer, fresher upper ocean. As a result of increased open water area, biological productivity at the base of the marine food chain has increased and sea ice-dependent marine mammals continue to lose habitat. Increases in the greenness of tundra vegetation and permafrost temperatures are linked to warmer land temperatures in coastal regions, often adjacent to the areas of greatest sea ice retreat. A second key point in the 2011 Report is the repeated occurrence of 2010 Arctic winter wind patterns that mark a departure from the norm. These changes resulted in higher than normal temperatures in the Arctic, with record ice sheet mass loss, record low late spring snow cover in Eurasia, shorter lake ice duration, and unusually lower temperatures and snow storms in some low latitude regions. A potential indicator of recent atmospheric changes was record low ozone concentrations in March 2011. The 2011 Report Card shows that record-setting changes are occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system. Given the projection of continued global warming, it is very likely that major Arctic changes will continue in years to come, with increasing climatic, biological and social impacts. Highlights for 2011 Sea ice and ocean observations over the past decade (2001-2011) suggest that the Arctic Ocean climate has reached a new state, with characteristics different than those observed previously. The new ocean climate has less sea ice (both thickness and summer extent) and, as a result, a warmer and fresher upper ocean. A clockwise ocean circulation regime has dominated the Arctic Ocean for at least 14 years (1997-2011), in contrast to the typical duration of a 5-8 year pattern of circulation shifts observed from 1948-1996. In the Bering Sea, aragonite undersaturation, i.e., ocean acidification, throughout the water column is causing seasonal calcium carbonate mineral suppression in some areas. The September 2011 Arctic sea ice extent was the second lowest of the past 30 years. The five lowest September ice extents having occurred in the past five years, suggesting that a shift to a new sea ice state continues. The amount of older, thicker multiyear ice continues to decrease and both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage were ice-free in September. Observations of the Arctic marine ecosystems provide a glimpse of what can only be described as profound and continuing changes. For example, primary production by phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean increased ~20% between 1998 and 2009, mainly as a result of increasing open water extent and duration of the open water season. Changes in Arctic Ocean bottom communities include shifts in composition, geographical ranges, and biomass. While polar bears and walrus are experiencing negative impacts due to loss of habitat, whales now have greater access to the Northwest Passage and other northern feeding areas. 7 There is a direct link between increases and earlier peaks in Arctic tundra vegetation in many parts of the Arctic and increasing duration of the open water season due to decreasing summer sea ice extent. Vegetation productivity ranged from a 26% increase adjacent to the Beaufort Sea to a small decline in several areas. On the North Slope of Alaska, immediately south of the Beaufort Sea, new record high temperatures at 20 m depth were recorded at all permafrost observatories, where measurements began in the late 1970s. River discharge into the Arctic Ocean during 2010 was close to the long-term mean. Despite changes in tundra biomass, migratory barren-ground caribou appear to be within known ranges of natural variation. In 2011 there was continued widespread warming in the Arctic, where deviations from historical air temperatures are amplified by a factor of two or more relative to lower latitudes. This phenomenon, called Arctic Amplification, is primarily a consequence of increased summer sea ice loss and northward transport of heat by the atmosphere and ocean. December 2010 to January 2011, and summer 2011, repeated the shift in wind patterns observed in December 2009 and February 2010 that resulted in relatively warm Arctic temperatures and severe cold weather in eastern North America, northern Europe and eastern Asia. Related to these shifts, the western slope of the Greenland ice sheet in particular experienced an increase in surface melting in summer 2011, amplified by albedo feedback and below-normal summer snowfall. Satellite gravity measurements show that the mass loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet during 2010-2011 was the largest annual loss in the satellite record of 2002-present. Lake ice cover duration, largely influenced by air temperature changes, was shorter by as much as 4-5 weeks in 2010-2011 compared to the 1997-2010 average in the eastern Canadian Arctic. Acknowledgments The Arctic Report Card reflects the work of an international team of 121 researchers in 14 countries and is based upon published and ongoing scientific research. Peer-review of the scientific content of the report card was facilitated by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment (AMAP) Program. The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP), the cornerstone program of the Arctic Council's Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) Working Group, provides leadership on the biodiversity elements of the report card. The Report Card is lead by an inter-agency team from NOAA, the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory and the Office of Naval Research. Support for the Arctic Report Card is provided by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic Research Program. 8 Baselines and Trends October 20, 2011 When scientists make statements about changes in climate they compare the magnitude of recent observations to conditions in the past. In the early 1970s, the the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defined a climatological baseline as a 30-year "normal" period. It was believed that 30 years was a long enough period for the natural variability of the atmosphere to be averaged out, and thus whichever 30 year period was selected would not make a substantial difference. This has not been the case for the Arctic. Large natural changes can occur over 30-year periods and there is a recent persistent upward trend in temperature and downward trend in sea ice extent (Fig. A2 in the Temperature and Clouds essay). Several plots in the Arctic Report Card are for the first time calculated from a new baseline period of 1981 through 2010. The magnitude of these temperature anomalies over the Arctic are about 1.0 °C less than those calculated from a baseline of data from 1971 through 2000. Thus, readers of all sections of the Report Card should be aware of what baseline period or trend interval is used to assess the magnitude of recent changes. Figure A2 shows that even if recent years are included in the baseline, the year 2011 remains a warm year. More information can be found at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html. 9 Atmosphere Summary Section Coordinator: James E. Overland NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA November 10, 2011 In 2011, annual near-surface air temperatures over much of the ocean were approximately +1.5 °C greater than the 1981-2010 baseline period and land temperatures were also above their baseline values. This continued a decade-long warm-bias of the Arctic relative to mid- latitudes. The wintertime increase and the summertime decrease in cloudiness resulted in greater energy flux to the surface, potentially contributing to the near record low sea ice extent this year (see the essay on Sea Ice). Similar to winter 2009-2010, winter 2010-2011 and summer 2011 had increased linkages of wind patterns between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. This pattern is responsible for sending cold air from the Arctic southward into eastern North America and northern Europe, and warm air from the sub-Arctic northward into western Greenland and east Asia. Possibly linked to recent changes in wind patterns, ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March 2011 were the lowest ever recorded during the period beginning in 1979. While the global increase of human sources of greenhouse gases continues, there is no direct evidence that Arctic emissions of methane are changing. 10