Forecasting migration between the eU, V4 and eastern eUrope impact of visa abolition Edited by: marta Jaroszewicz, magdalena lesińska WaRsaW JUlY 2014 Forecasting migration between the eU, V4 and eastern eUrope impact of visa abolition Edited by: marta Jaroszewicz, magdalena lesińska © copyright by ośrodek studiów Wschodnich im. marka Karpia centre for Eastern studies contEnt EDitoRs marta Jaroszewicz, magdalena lesińska acaDEmic REviEW prof. maciej Duszczyk (University of Warsaw) EDitoR timothy Harrell co-opERation anna Łabuszewska, Katarzyna Kazimierska GRapHic DEsiGn paRa-bUcH pHotoGRapH on covER shutterstock Dtp Groupmedia fiGUREs Wojciech mańkowski pUblisHER Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia centre for Eastern studies ul. Koszykowa 6a, Warsaw tel. + 48 /22/ 525 80 00 fax: + 48 /22/ 525 80 40 osw.waw.pl isbn 978-83-62936-47-2 Contents List of tabLes /5 List of figures /7 Main abbreviations /9 Main resuLts /10 introduCtory reMarks, Marta Jaroszewicz, Magdalena Lesińska /14 part i. eu/v4 and eastern european Migration: estiMates, patterns and foreCasts /19 1. the probable future development of international migration from ukraine, Moldova and belarus to visegrad countries and the european union – the delphi method (the search for “subjective objectivity”), Dušan Drbohlav, Marta Jaroszewicz /20 2. econometric forecasting of migrant stock from eastern europe in the eu Members states, Wadim Strielkowski, Marta Jaroszewicz /54 3. the impact of visa liberalisation on migration from eastern europe to the eu and v4 – can we learn from the past?, Bernd Parusel /68 part ii. Country Chapters /87 1. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and possible future. the perspective of poland, Zuzanna Brunarska, Magdalena Lesińska /88 2. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and the possible future. the perspective of Czechia, Dita Čermáková /109 3. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and possible future. the perspective of hungary, Béla Soltész, Gábor Zimmerer /122 4. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and the possible future. the perspective of slovakia, Vladimír Benč /139 5. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and the possible future. the perspective of ukraine, Oleksandra Betliy /158 6. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and possible future. the perspective of Moldova, Kamil Całus /181 7. Migration between the eu, v4 and eastern europe: the present situation and the possible future. the perspective of belarus, Andrei Yeliseyeu /196 part iii. CritiCaL observations on visas and Migration between eu/v4 and eastern europe, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz /217 The following research has been produced under the project Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition Project funded by: Centre for Eastern Studies International Visegrad Fund Project co-funded by: Project is led by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Poland in cooperation with: Geographic Migration Centre, Charles University, Czechia Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association Hungarian Institute of International Affairs Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Ukraine Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) „Viitorul”, Moldova Centre of Migration Research Foundation, Poland LisT oF TabLEs Table 1. Number of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in V4 states Table 2. Proportion of irregular immigrants in the stock of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in V4 states Table 3. Possible future development of migration trends in V4 states in the case of visa abolition for Eastern European nationals Table 4. Possible future developments of migration trends in V4 states in the case of elimination of labour market restrictions for Eastern European nationals Table 5. Agreement/disagreement in V4 states with visa abolition for nationals of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Table 6. Anticipated time perspective for visa abolition for Ukrainian, Belaru- sian and Moldovan nationals Table 7. Public debate in V4 states over visa liberalisation for Eastern European nationals Table 8. Estimated number of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova abroad (V4, EU, Russia) Table 9. Proportion of irregular immigrants in the overall stock of labour mi- grants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova abroad (V4, EU, Russia) Table 10. Possible future development of migration trends in Eastern Europe in the case of EU visa abolition Table 11. Possible future development of migration trends in Eastern Europe in the case of elimination of restrictions in access to EU labour markets Table 12. Public debate in Eastern Europe over visa liberalisation Table 13. Important strategic policy measures to better manage the migration between V4/EU and Eastern Europe Table 14. Assessment of policy recommendations with regard to their feasibil- ity and desirability Table 15. Statistical sources for the migration projections Table 16. Specifications of econometric model scenarios Table 17. Immigration of Polish, Romanian and Bulgarian nationals to Germa- 4 ny, 1991-2007 21 10 02 Table 18. Asylum applications by nationals of Poland, Romania and Bulgaria to 9/207/ Germany, 1991-2005 0W RT Table 19. First-time residence permits granted by 27 EU Member States SO OP E RE Table 20. Immigration from five Western Balkan countries to Italy, Slovenia, ACW Sweden and Germany, 2007-2011 RS PO 5 Table 21. Foreign population in 14 EU Member States (citizens of Serbia, Mon- tenegro and the FYROM) Table 22. Foreign population in 15 EU Member States (citizens of Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina) Table 23. New asylum applications by citizens of Western Balkan countries in 27 EU Member States Table 24. Citizens of Western Balkan countries found to be “illegally present” in EU Member States, 2008-2012 Table 25. Residence permits granted by 27 EU Member States to nationals of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, 2008-2012 Table 26. Number of foreigners with valid residence permits in Poland (as of 31.12.2013) according to different status of residence (top five countries) Table 27. Number of foreigners in Czechia Table 28. Current main push and pull factors influencing migration flows from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in Czechia Table 29. Agreement with the abolition of short-term EU visas for Eastern Eu- ropean nationals in Czechia Table 30. Migrants in Slovakia, 2007 and 2012 (at the end of a year) Table 31. Employment of foreigners in Slovakia in 2008, 2010, 2012 (at the end of a year) Table 32. Estimates of a number of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Mol- dova in Slovakia (including irregularly staying ones) Table 33. Proportion of irregular immigrants in the stock of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in Slovakia Table 34. Applications for EU uniform and national Slovak visas according to citizenship in 2010-2013 Table 35. Number of visa applications and visa refusals at the General Consu- late of Slovakia in Uzhgorod in 2005-2012 Table 36. Major characteristics of Ukrainian migrants abroad, 2010-2012 in % Table 37. Education of Ukrainian migrants, 2010-2012 Table 38. Average earnings of Ukrainian migrants abroad, 2010-2012 4 1201 Table 39. Number of Ukrainian students abroad in 2008-2013 02 9/207/ Table 40. Main destination states for Moldovan migrants 0W RT Table 41. How big an outflow of migrants from Moldova will there be if the Eu- SO OP ropean Union lifts restrictions on access to the labour market for your country E RE nationals (in a short-term horizon of three years after restrictions are abol- ACW ished) in comparison with the present inflow? RS PO 6 LisT oF FigUrEs Figure 1. Total Belarusian resident stock 2008–2050 – 3 scenarios, 27 EU coun- tries and Norway, impact of visa abolition in 2015 Figure 2. Total Moldovan resident stock 2008–2050 – 3 scenarios, 27 EU coun- tries and Norway, impact of visa abolition in 2015 Figure 3. Ukrainian resident stock in 27 EU Member States and Norway in 2008–2050: medium scenario Figure 4. Total Ukrainian resident stock 2008–2050 – 3 scenarios, 27 EU coun- tries and Norway, impact of visa abolition in 2015 Figure 5. First residence permits granted by EU Member States to Western Balkans citizens in 2008–2012 Figure 6. The employer declarations to hire a foreigner by country of origin in Poland in 2007–2013 Figure 7. Annual average monthly wages in EaP countries and Poland in 2012 Figure 8. Visas (Schengen visas, type C) issued by Poland for citizens of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova (2005–2013) Figure 9. Are those actors favourable to visa abolition for Eastern Partnership countries? (answers for Poland) Figure 10. What do you expect to happen (in a short-term horizon of three years) in Poland if visas for short-term travel for up to 90 days for Ukrainian, Belarusian and Moldovan nationals to the Schengen area are abolished? (most frequent answers) Figure 11. Negative impacts of future migration from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to Poland, average answers Figure 12. Positive impacts of future migration from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to Poland, average answers Figure 13. International migration flows to/from Czechia in 1995–2012 Figure 14. Foreigners in Czechia by country of origin in 1994–2012 Figure 15. Foreigners in Czechia by category of residence (1st January 2013) Figure 16. TOP 10 countries of citizenship of foreign population in Hungary in 2001–2012 (as % of total foreign population) 4 21 10 mGFieigagurrryae-nK t1sh7 .a( GtmoDpiPs 5 dp o+elr l Bacaerplsa itrau isn, MHuonldgoavray) ,a 1n9d8 0in– 2s0el1e0c, tgediv ceonu innt r1i9e9s0 o fI norteigrinna otifo inma-l 09/2007/2W RT SO Figure 18. Expected changes in migration flows in Hungary (2014 and 2024) E OREP ACW RS PO 7 Figure 19. Expected changes in the inflow of migrants upon lifting labour market restrictions in Hungary (in a short-term horizon of three years after restrictions are abolished) Figure 20. In which time perspective do you expect that Schengen short-term visas for Ukrainians, Belarusians and Moldovans may be abolished? (answers for Hungary) Figure 21. Desirability of immigration of ethnic Hungarians Figure 22. Slovakia: contribution of migration to population growth Figure 23. Share of foreigners in total population in Slovakia in 1994–2012 (in %) Figure 24. Apprehended irregular migrants & asylum seekers applications in Slovakia in 1993–2013 Figure 25. Estimated number of Ukrainian migrants abroad (V4, EU, Russia) Figure 26. Main destination countries for Ukrainian migrants (2007–2008, 2010–2012) Figure 27. Legal status of Ukrainian migrants abroad in 2010–2012 Figure 28. What can be expected to happen (in 3 years perspective) if visas for short-term travel for up to 90 days to the Schengen zone for Ukrainian nation- als are abolished? (answers for Ukraine) Figure 29. Possible migration outflows from Ukraine after possible EU labour markets opening (in 3 years perspective) Figure 30. What are the main push and pull factors of emigration pushing from Moldova and attracting in the EU? (average results) Figure 31. What can be expected to happen (in a short-term horizon of three years) if visas for short term travels for up to 90 days to the Schengen zone for Moldovan citizens are abolished? Figure 32. Negative impacts from future migration from Moldova to the EU by relevance (average results) Figure 33. Positive impacts from future migration from Moldova to the EU by relevance (average results) Figure 34. Main motivations for leaving Belarus/unwillingness to leave the country, according to the results of the 2012/13 national poll Figure 35. Number of short-term visas issued by the consulates of the EU MS 4 1201 in Belarus in 2006–2013 (in thousands) 02 9/207/ Figure 36. Share of main age groups in total population of Belarus, 2000–2012 0W RT (beginning of year; %) SO OP Figure 37. The number of persons in non-working ages per 1000 working-age E RE population (age dependency ratio) in Belarus in 1990–2014 (beginning of a year) ACW RS PO 8 Main abbrEViaTions aM – arithmetic mean bEL – Belarus CZ – Czechia EaP – Eastern Partnership EC – European Commission Eurostat - Statistical Office of the EU FDi – Foreign Direct Investment FsU – Former Soviet Union FYroM - Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia gDP – Gross Domestic Product HU – Hungary EU Ms – European Union Member States oECD - Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development ioM – International Organization for Migration iLo – International Labour Office iVF – International Visegrad Fund LFs - Labour Force Survey MD – Moldova n – number of respondents PL – Poland rF – Russian Federation sK – Slovakia sD – standard deviation UK – United Kingdom Un – United Nations 4 UnHCr – Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 21 10 02 Ua – Ukraine 9/207/ VLaP – Visa Liberalisation Action Plan 0W RT SO V4 – Visegrad Group OP E RE Wb – World Bank ACW RS PO 9