Othert itles of interest DANZIN Science and the Second Renaissance of Europe DILLON The Analysis of Response in Crop and Livestock Production GLASER The Brain Drain: Emigration and Return GODBY and OTTERMAN The Contribution of Space Observations to Global Food Information Systems LO and SALIH Growth Pole Strategy and Regional Development Policy: Asian Experiences and Alternative Approaches RAO Food Consumption and Planning SALAS People: An International Choice UN-ECE Problems of the Agricultural Development of Less Favoured Areas UN-ECLA Water Management and Environment in Latin America WORTHINGTON Arid Land Irrigation in Developing Countries: Environmental Problems and Effects ZAHLAN Technology Transfer and Change in the Arab World Food Security Issues in the A rab Near East A Report of the United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia Edited by A. A. EL-SHERBINI Joint EC WA /FA O Agriculture Division, Beirut, Lebanon Published for the UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR WESTERN ASIA by PERGAMON PRESS OXFORD · NEW YORK · TORONTO · SYDNEY · PARIS · FRANKFURT U.K. Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford OX3 OBW, England U.S.A. Pergamon Press Inc., Maxwell House, Fairview Park, Elmsford, New York 10523, U.S.A. CANADA Pergamon of Canada, Suite 104, 150 Consumers Road, Willowdale, Ontario M2J 1P9, Canada AUSTRALIA Pergamon Press (Aust.) Pty. Ltd., P.O. Box 544, Potts Point, N.S.W. 2011, Australia FRANCE Pergamon Press SARL, 24 rue des Ecoles, 75240 Paris, Cedex 05, France FEDERAL REPUBLIC Pergamon Press GmbH, 6242 Kronberg-Taunus, OF GERMANY Pferdstrasse 1, Federal Republic of Germany Copyright © 1979 United Nations All Rights Reserved- No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holders. First edition 1979 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Economic Commission for Western Asia Food security issues in the Arab Near East. 1. Food supply - Arab countries I. Title II. El-Sherbini, A A 338.Γ9Ί74927 HD9018.A5 79-40284 ISBN 0-08-023447-X in order to make this volume available as economically and as rapidly as possible the author's typescript has been reproduced in its original form. This method un- fortunately has its typographical limitations but it is hoped that they in no way distract the reader. Printed in Great Britain by Page Bros. (Norwich) Ltd. List of Annexes ANNEXES TO PART I: Annex I, 1975 Pood balance sheets for selected 45 countries in the Arab countries Table 1 - Iraq 46 Table 2 - Jordan 50 Table 3 - Lebanon 53 Table 4 - Syrian Arab Republic 56 Table 5 - Yemen Arab Republic 59 Table 6 - Yemen People's Democratic Republic 62 Annex I I · Demand project ions and production estimates 65 for se l ec ted countries in the Arab Near East Table 1 - Basic assumptions for domestic demand project ions Table 2 - Projection of aggregate domestic demand Table 3 - Nutri t ion analys is (average per capita per day) Table 4 - Perspectives of agricultural production, 1980 Table 5 - Perspectives of l ives tock production, 1980 Table 6 - 1 9 7 5 Pood pos i t ion Table 7 - 1980 Pood pos i t ion Iraq 66 Jordan 74 Lebanon 81 Syrian Arab Republic 88 Yemen Arab Republic 95 Yemen People's Democratic Republic 102 ANNEXES TO PART I I : Annex I · Table 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of wheat production in 173 East Jordan Table 2 - Mean, standard deviation and coef f i c ient 174 of variat ion of r a i n f a l l in E. Jordan Table 3 - Probabil i ty dis tr ibut ion of l e v e l s of 176 r a i n f a l l in different zones of E.Jordan Table 4 - Co-variation of wheat production, y i e l d , 177 area and t o t a l ra in fa l l in E.Jordan, 1961-75 V I 1 Vlll List of Annexes Table 5 - Rainfall by months and wheat yields A) East Jordan 178 B) Irbid D i s t r i c t 178 C) Aman " 179 D) Karak " 179 E) Balqa · 180 P) Ma· an ·' 180 Graph 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of production 181 Graph 2 - Co-variation of production, area, 182 y i e l d and r a i n f a l l Graph 3 - Regresion of y i e l d on ra infa l l 183 Formulae for forecast ing the y i e l d of wheat - in East Jordan 184 - in Aman Di s t r i c t 185 - in Irbid " 186 - in Karak " 187 Annex I I . Table 1 - Production of rain-fed ordinary wheat 18 for t o t a l Syria and major producing Mohafazat, 1958-75 Table 2 - Rain-fed wheat in Syria, 1958-75: area 189 y i e l d , production, r a i n f a l l , r e l a t i v e humidity, days of rain , temperature Table 3 - Rain-fed wheat in Syria: means and 190 standard deviations of the variables by Mohafazat 1958-75 Table 4 - Regresion of the y i e l d of rain-fed 191 wheat in Syria on cl imatic variables : optimum regressions by Mohafazat Table 5 - Wheat in Syria - contribution of c l i - 192 matic variables t o the fluctuat ions of the y i e l d s of rain-fed ordinary wheat Table 6 - Meteorological stat ions 193 Table 7 - Yield and production of irr igated or- 194 dinary wheat for t o t a l Syria and major producing Mohafazat 1958-75 Table 8A - Acreage under wheat in Syria, 1973-76 195 8P - Wheat Production in Syria, 1973-76 195 8Y - Wheat Yields in Syria, 1973-76 195 Table 9 - Population and supply: u t i l i z a t i o n of 196 wheat i n Syria, 1958-75 Table 10 - Average wheat y i e l d s by Mohafazat 197 Table 11 - Rainfall and wheat y i e l d s in Syria and 197 East Jordan Lis t of Annexes ix Graph 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of product ion 198 Graph 2 - Yie lds and r a i n f a l l 19 Graph 3 - Co-var ia t ion of y i e l d , p r e c i p i t a t i o n 20 days of r a i n f a l l and r e l a t i v e humidity Graph 4 - Co-var ia t ion of t h e y i e l d s of r a i n - f e d 201 wheat i n Syr i a and in East Jordan Graph 5 - Co-var ia t ion of r a i n f a l l in Syr i a and 202 i n East Jordan ANNEXES TO PART I I I : 1 Anex I« Matrix s p e c i f i c a t i o n s 27 Anex I I , C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l imports 29 according t o t h e i r v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o fore ign p o l i t i c a l pressu res Table 1 - Scores of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of var ious 231 imports of t h e Arab world Table 2 - Lis t of high r i s k commodities with 232 important a l t e r n a t i v e sources of supply Annex I I I . Table 1 - Total a g r i c u l t u r a l and o i l t r a d e for 23 t h e Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73 Table 2 - Structure of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts 234 and imports by commodity group, aver - age 1971-73 Table 3 - Rate of growth of a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts 235 and imports of Arab coun t r i e s between 1970-72 and 1973-75 Table 4 - Per c a p i t a net import of food and l i v e 236 animals in s e l e c t e d c o u n t r i e s , average 1972-74 Table 5 - Import dependence i n c e r e a l s for s e l - 237 ected c o u n t r i e s , average 1973-75 Table 6 - Unit value of imports and expor ts of 238 s e l e c t e d commodities i n t h e Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73 Table 7 - Unit value of a g r i c u l t u r a l expor t s and 239 imports for a l l Arab coun t r i e s 1971-73 Table 8 - A summary view of Arab dependence on 239 developed market economies, average 1971-73 Table 9 - Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts t o and im- 240 p o r t s from out s ide t h e reg ion , 1971-73 average Table 10 - Estimated per c a p i t a a v a i l a b i l i t y of 241 a r a b l e land 1974 Table 11 - Changes i n terms of t r a d e of s e l e c t e d 241 Arab coun t r i e s Foreword Pood security is now assuming primary importance in the Arab region. Agricultural production has not kept pace with surging food demand. The latter is stimulated by a popula- tion explosion and by rising incomes, particularly in the oil-rich countries where per capita food imports presently are highest in the world, standing at nearly U.S.$400 in 1978. These developments have prompted the Economic Commission for Western Asia (ECWA) to give considerable attention to various aspects of Arab food security issues. This is evidenced by the pivotal position which this subject occu- pies in the work programme of the Joint ECWA/PAO Agriculture Division. It is also manifested in the catalytic role of ECWA in organizing regional meetings on food security such as the one held in Kuwait in April 1977. The publication of this volume on food security provides an opportunity for the consolidation of all work undertaken by ECWA for easy reference by all those concerned with Arab problems in general, and food security issues in particular. M.S. Al-Attar Executive Secretary July 1978 XI Introduction Dr. Abdel-Aziz El-Sherbini Chief, Joint EC WA /FA O Agriculture Division Organization of the book 1. As in other parts of the world, there is also growing concern about the food situation in countries of Western Asia. The governments of the Economic Commis- sion for VJestern Asia (ECWA) countries during the First Session of the Commission in 1974 stressed their apprehension about the worsening food position in the region and the complex problems thereby generated. Indeed, in a number of ECWA countries it has become increasingly difficult for governments to assure steady supplies of basic foodstuffs and in at least two countries emergency food aid has been necessary to maintain minimum safe levels of food intake for the masses of the population. 2. The same concern over the magnitude and complexity of food problems at the global level culminated in holding the 1974 United Nations World Food Conference, 1 convened by the General Assembly of the United Nations /,and entrusting it with developing ways and means whereby the international community, as a whole, could take specific action to resolve the world food problem within the broader context of development and international co-operation. The Conference generated con- siderable interest and produced an impressive declaration on the eradication of hunger and malnutrition, supported by an important three-pronged programme of action, focusing on increasing and rationalizing food aid, establishing and main- taining adequate food reserve stocks and improving agricultural production in food deficit countries -/ · The world at large has accepted the challenge of the food crisis. The developing countries, in particular, in a major bid to mobilize their own resources and to tackle their food problem, took the initiative to start the implementation of plans to strengthen their agricultural base and to boost their 1 / General Assembly Resolution No. 3180 (XXVIIl). _2/United Nations, Report of the World Food Conference, Rome, 5-16 November 1974» New York 19751 Ρ·64 (UN Publication No. 75.11.A.3). The action programme is spelled out in 20 Resolutions. xiii xiv Introduction food production· V The Thirteenth FAO Regional Conference for the Near East adopted, in October 1976, the Tunis Declaration which cal ls upon Member Nations of the region to give the highest prior i ty to food and agricultural development, par- t i cu la r ly to increasing food production and to take al l necessary measures to th i s end. 3. The present food cr i s i s is not simply a cyclical phenomenon, nor has it come about suddenly. It has wrought i t s way gradually and imperceptibly,since the exis- tence of huge surpluses with the large food exporters, unt i l the early seventies, obscured the fact that the supply-demand relationship had been vrorsening consis- tent ly over the past two decades. Food production has been barely keeping pace with population growth. However, the problem does not directly l i e with the dynamics of agricultural production, but in the widely differing growth rates of food demand between developed and developing countries. The unfortunate con- sequence has been maldistribution with one part of the world having too much food and the other part having too l i t t l e and with no acceptable mechanism to balance or improve the pattern or to solve the chronic state of hunger and malnutrition throughout the world. 4. Thus, developments on both sides of the supply-demand equation explain the world's food predicament. On the supply side, there appears to be serious dif- ficulty in increasing al l four of the basic agricultural resources (land, water, energy and f e r t i l i z e r ) . Moreover, the crop resul ts of recent years have accentua- ted the crucial and unpredictable role of the weather. On the demand side, popula- t ion growth and r is ing affluence are rapidly stimulating food consumption and threatening the ecological balance that underpins the process of food production. Efforts to produce more food, however, seem pointless as the majority of the poor cannot afford to buy more food. The l a t t e r underlines the urgency for gainful employment of many more people and a more just income distr ibution. The ingredients of the present food cr i s i s 5. Prior to the present c r i s i s , there have been periodic drops in production, such as the shortfall in the U.S.S.R. grain crop in 1963 and again in 1965 and the 1965- 66 drought in India that led to serious crop fai lure . These drops produced tense situations at the time but no cr i s i s emerged and world grain prices regained relat ively stable. 6. Thus, the 1960's witnessed the experience of managing production shortfal ls without visible effect on grain prices. Coupled with the optimism of the Green Revolution, th i s created a climate of general euphoria about the world food si tua- f t ion which lasted unt i l the early 1970 s. It should also be noted that world grain stocks reached an all-time high in 1962. The large producing countries, particu- lar ly the U.S. attempted to eliminate high food surpluses by reducing stocks through acreage res t r ic t ion . Consequently, in 1971 stocks had fallen to the i r low- est level in more than a decade. Unfortunately, serious crop failures followed shortly afterwards. In 1972 grain production fel l by 39 million metric tons, of which 13 million M.T. were the result of the shortfall in the U.S.S.R. The same situation was repeated in 1974 when droughts led to a decline in cereal output by Y Action by the industrialized world, part icularly with regard to the immediate problem of food aid and the medium-range problem of reserve stocks, has proved a slow s ta r t e r . A real breakthrough on these fronts will require much more vigorous measures at the national as well as the international level . Action by the United States in th i s field is crucial for the world's hungry people, since that country is at least as dominant in the global supply of food as the OPEC countries are in the supply of o i l . Introduction xv 40 million M.T. Apart from a decrease of 38,8 million M.T· in North America, the world's largest grain exporting region, production dropped by 28 million M.T. in the U.S.S.R. In contrast to the policies of the 1960's, the U.S.S.R, decided on these two occasions to make up the deficits through imports rather than by curbing domestic consumption. With dangerously low stocks in existence - barely one month's consumption - wheat prices rose from U.S.$60 to U.S.$200 a ton between 1972 and 1974, Given the present levels of grain stocks and the annual necessary require- ments, significant grain shortfalls in large developing countries or in developed countries, that are important producers and traders, cannot be readily met without leading to a food crisis. ! 7. The developments in the first half of the 1970 s explain the increasing re- liance on trade to supply the grain needs of a large number of countries. Hov/ever, there has been a concurrent unwillingness on the part of large exporting countries to maintain high-cost contingency reserves in large quantities and on a permanent basis. Thus, the solution to the food crisis must not be sought so much in de- creasing consumption by the rich as in increasing production by the poor. This would call for a serious reconsideration of agricultural production policies in developing countries as attempted in this study. The food situation in 1975-76 8. In 1975 "the hopes for a sharp recovery in world cereal output and food produc- tion as a whole did not materialize. The 1975 world cereal crop was only margin- ally better than the potentially disastrous production results of 1974* However, fs 1975 problem was largely concentrated in the U.S.S.R. where cereal output de- er cerrt clined by 30 per cent or 58 million M.T., representing a full 5 P °f world cereal production. Indeed, there was a very large improvement in the developing and developed market economies and China fortunately made considerable surpluses available for export, (in the ECWA countries, the outcome of the 1975 crop was a r e mixed result and, at best, it could be called average.) In 1975? f° ^ fourth year in succession, stocks remained close to minimum working levels and well below the minimum level considered necessary for food security (17 to 18 per cent of ne annual consumption). At the end of the year 19751 "^ world was once again left very heavily dependent on the outcome of the 1976 crop. 9. Fortunately, 1976 harvests were good and grain crops recovered from the 1974-75 low levels, permitting some rebuilding of depleted stocks (up to 13-14 per cent of annual consumption). The news that American farmers might decide on important reductions of the area under cereals in view of the mounting carry-over stocks in that country, however, dimmed the high expectations for the next year's crop, 10. In fact there remained a good deal of uncertainty stemming not only from weather conditions, but also from the growing inter-dependence between cereals and livestock in developed market economies (and soon also in Eastern Europe) and from the increased reliance on trade to satisfy consumption needs. Any serious crop failure could have dramatic consequences for the masses of the population in importing developing countries. The regional food problem 11. The above succinct analysis of the causes of the food problem at the global level provides the background for the regional food gap and related problems. In broad terms, it reflects the major trends and problems faced with regard to food in countries of Western Asia. During the past twenty years, the growth performance of r food production in these countries centered around 2.5 P© cent per annum, varying widely from country to country with extremes from -0,2 per cent per annum in the Yemen A.R. to 5·0 per cent per annum in Lebanon, as illustrated in Table 1.