Flood Risk Science and Management Edited by Gareth Pender Hazel Faulkner Flood Risk Science and Management Edited by Gareth Pender and Hazel Faulkner © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. ISBN: 978-1-405-18657-5 Thiseditionfirstpublished2011(cid:1)2011byBlackwellPublishingLtd BlackwellPublishingwasacquiredbyJohnWiley&SonsinFebruary2007.Blackwell’spublishingprogramhasbeen mergedwithWiley’sglobalScientific,TechnicalandMedicalbusinesstoformWiley-Blackwell. Registeredoffice: JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK Editorialoffices: 9600GarsingtonRoad,Oxford,OX42DQ,UK TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK Fordetailsofourglobaleditorialoffices,forcustomerservicesandforinformationabouthowtoapplyforpermissionto reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell. TherightoftheauthortobeidentifiedastheauthorofthisworkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewiththeUK Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. 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Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-1-4051-8657-5(hardback) 1. Floodcontrol.2. Flooddamageprevention.3. Riskassessment. I.Pender,G.(Garry) TC530.F5852010 627’.4–dc22 2010017500 AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. Thisbookispublishedinthefollowingelectronicformats:ePDF9781444324853;WileyOnlineLibrary 9781444324846 Setin9/11.5ptTrumpMediaevalbyThomsonDigital,Noida,India 1 2011 Contents Preface,vi Contributors,viii Foreword,xii Acronyms/Glossaryofterms,xiii PART1 INTRODUCTION 1 SETTINGTHESCENEFORFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,3 JimW.HallandEdmundC.Penning-Rowsell PART2 LANDUSEANDFLOODING 2 STRATEGICOVERVIEWOFLANDUSEMANAGEMENTINTHECONTEXTOF CATCHMENTFLOODRISKMANAGEMENTPLANNING,19 EndaO’Connell,JohnEwenandGregO’Donnell 3 MULTISCALEIMPACTSOFLANDMANAGEMENTONFLOODING,39 HowardS.Wheater,NeilMcIntyre,BethannaM.Jackson,MilesR.Marshall, CarolineBallard,NataliyaS.Bulygina,BrianReynoldsandZoeFrogbrook 4 MANAGEDREALIGNMENT:ACOASTALFLOODMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY,60 IanTownend,ColinScottandMarkDixon 5 ACCOUNTINGFORSEDIMENTINFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,87 ColinThorne,NickWallerstein,PhilipSoar,AndrewBrookes,DuncanWishart, DavidBiedenharn,StanfordGibson,CharlesLittleJr,DavidMooney, ChesterC.Watson,TonyGreen,TomCoulthardandMarcoVanDeWiel 6 AMEASUREDSTEPTOWARDSPERFORMANCE-BASEDVISUALINSPECTIONOFFLOOD DEFENCEASSETS,114 GavinLongandMichaelJ.Mawdesley iv Contents PART3 FLOODFORECASTINGANDWARNING 7 ADVANCESINTHEREMOTESENSINGOFPRECIPITATIONUSINGWEATHERRADAR,135 IanD.Cluckie 8 ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCETECHNIQUESFORREAL-TIMEFLOODFORECASTING,145 JonathanLawry,DanielR.McCulloch,NicholasJ.RandonandIanD.Cluckie 9 REAL-TIMEUPDATINGINFLOODFORECASTINGANDWARNING,163 PeterC.Young 10 COUPLINGMETEOROLOGICALANDHYDROLOGICALMODELSFORREAL-TIMEFLOOD FORECASTING,196 GeoffAustin,BarneyAustin,LukeSutherland-StaceyandPaulShucksmith PART4 FLOODMODELLINGANDMITIGATION 11 DATAUTILIZATIONINFLOODINUNDATIONMODELLING,211 DavidC.Mason,GuyJ-P.SchumannandPaulD.Bates 12 FLOODINUNDATIONMODELLINGTOSUPPORTFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,234 GarethPenderandSylvainNe´elz 13 INTEGRATEDURBANFLOODMODELLING,258 AdrianJ.Saul,SlobodanDjordjevic´,CˇedoMaksimovic´ andJohnBlanksby PART5 SYSTEMSMODELLINGANDUNCERTAINTYHANDLING 14 DISTRIBUTEDMODELSANDUNCERTAINTYINFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,291 KeithBeven 15 TOWARDSTHENEXTGENERATIONOFRISK-BASEDASSETMANAGEMENTTOOLS,313 PaulB.Sayers,MikeJ.Wallis,JonathanD.Simm,GregBaxterandTonyAndryszewski 16 HANDLINGUNCERTAINTYINCOASTALMODELLING,336 DominicE.Reeve,Jos(cid:1)eHorrillo-CaraballoandAdria(cid:1)nPedrozo-Acun˜a PART6 POLICYANDPLANNING 17 THEPRACTICEOFPOWER:GOVERNANCEANDFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,359 ColinGreen 18 STAKEHOLDERENGAGEMENTINFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,372 ColinGreenandEdmundC.Penning-Rowsell 19 FLOODRISKCOMMUNICATION,386 HazelFaulkner,SimonMcCarthyandSylviaTunstall Contents v 20 SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICALDIMENSIONSOFFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,407 SueTapsell 21 ASSESSMENTOFINFECTIONRISKSDUETOURBANFLOODING,429 LornaFewtrell,KerenSmithandDavidKay PART7 CASESTUDIES 22 MODELLING CONCEPTS AND STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN LARGE, LOWLAND BASINS: RI´O SALADO BASIN, ARGENTINA, 445 RodoAradas,ColinR.ThorneandNigelWright 23 FLOODMODELLINGINTHETHAMESESTUARY,472 JonWicks,LukeLovellandOwenTarrant 24 ASTRATEGICVIEWOFLANDMANAGEMENTPLANNINGINBANGLADESH,484 AinunNishat,BushraNishatandMalikFidaAbdullahKhan 25 GOALS,INSTITUTIONSANDGOVERNANCE:THEUSEXPERIENCE,499 GeraldE.Galloway Index,513 Preface Approachestoavoidlossoflifeandlimitdisruptionanddamagefromfloodinghavechangedsignificantly inrecentyears.Therehasbeenamovefromastrategyofflooddefencetooneoffloodriskmanagement. Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also requiresthatsocietylearnstolivewithfloodsandthatstakeholderslivinginfloodproneareasdevelop copingstrategiestoincreasetheirresiliencetofloodimpactswhentheseoccur.Thischangeinapproach representsaparadigmshiftwhichstemsfromtherealisationthatcontinuingtostrengthenandextend conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equity.Floodriskmanagementrecognisesthatasustainableapproachmustrestonintegratedmeasures thatreducenotonlytheprobabilityofflooding,butalsotheconsequences.Thisisessentialasincreasesin theprobabilityofinundationareinevitableinmanyareasoftheworldduetoclimatechange,whilesocio- economicdevelopmentwillleadtospirallingincreasesintheconsequencesoffloodingunlesslandusein floodplainsiscarefullyplanned. Recognizingtheneedforresearchtosupportthisshift,fundersoffloodriskmanagementresearchin theUKcreatedtheFloodRiskManagementResearchConsortium(FRMRC),amulti-institutional,multi- disciplinary consortium tasked with increasing the understanding of flooding by generating new and originalscience,tosupportimprovedfloodriskmanagement.Theportfolioofactivitiesincluded: . the short-term delivery of tools and techniques to support accurate flood forecasting and warning, improvementstofloodmanagementinfrastructureandreductionoffloodrisktopeople,propertyand theenvironment; . theestablishmentofaprogrammeofhighqualitysciencetoenhanceunderstandingoffloodingand improvesociety’sabilitytoreducefloodriskthroughthedevelopmentofsustainablefloodmanagement strategies. ThecorecontentforthisvolumehasbeenprovidedbymembersoftheFRMRC.Inaddition,wehave broadenedtherangeofexpertisebydrawingontheinternationalresearchcommunityinfloodmanage- ment. Our intention is to provide an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current international research in flood management, thereby, providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide rangeoffloodmanagementtopics. ThebookauthorsareattheveryhighestpositioninacademicinstitutionsresearchingFloodRisk ScienceandManagementintheUKandelsewhere.Thecontentsareorganisedintosevenparts.Part1of thetextdevelopsascene-settingoverviewofcontemporaryscientificandsocio-economicchallenges, drawinglargelyonthesituationinEuropeandtheUKinparticular.InPart2,land-usemanagement isexploredasastrategicapproachtofloodriskreduction.Floodfrequencychangesconsequentupon Preface vii land-usemodificationsunder currentclimaticandsocio-economic‘futures’areexplored,themulti- scale impacts of land management on flooding are developed further in the case study context of FRMRC’sPontBrenstudyarea,asubcatchmentoftheriverSeverninmid-Wales,UK(Chapters2&3). In Chapter 4, the coastal management strategies of managed retreat, managed realignment and restoration are reviewed as approaches to coastal flood risk. The issues associated with sediment managementinfloodmodelsandinmanagementschemesareexploredinChapter5,andflooddefence andassetappraisalreviewedinChapter6. InPart3,floodforecastingandtheissuingofwarningsarebothconsideredfromatechnicalperspective. Chapters7and8lookatadvancesinremotesensing;inChapter7inrelationtoprecipitationestimation using radar, and in Chapter 8 in relation to real-time flood forecasting. The challenges of updating forecastsinreal-timeisexploredinChapter9,andtheproblemsassociatedwithcouplingrainfallandrun- offmodelsareconsideredinChapter10. Floodmodelling,andthemodellingoffloodmitigationeffectsisthefocusofPart4.Chapter11covers data utilisation for modelling purposes, and Chapters 12 and 13 develop the algorithm for 1D-2D modellinginarangeofsettings.Thetoolsavailableforhandlinguncertaintiesinmodelsareoutlined inPart5.Therisk-basedapproachisfurtherdevelopedinthecontextofassetmanagementinChapter15, andincoastalmodellinginChapter16. InPart6,policyandplanningarebothaddressedfromapredominantlysocio-economicperspective. Governance issues (Chapter 17), the involvement of stakeholders in practice and management (Chapter 18), and the design of effective ways to target flood risk communications (Chapter 19) are considered first. Some of the psycho-social dimensions of Flood Risk Management are explored in Chapter20,andhealthimpactsoffloodinginChapter21.TheremainingchaptersinPart7tracekey case studies from a range of international settings. This text covering Flood Risk Science and Management therefore provides an extensive and com- prehensivesynthesisofcurrentresearchinfloodmanagement;developingamulti-disciplinaryreference textcoveringawiderangeoffloodmanagementtopics.Itstargetedreadershipistheinternationalresearch community(fromresearchstudentsthroughtoseniorstaff),aswellasfloodmanagementprofessionals, suchasengineers,planners,governmentofficialsandthosewithfloodmanagementresponsibilityinthe publicsector.Byusingtheconceptofcasestudychapters,internationalcoverageisgiventothetopic, ensuringaworld-widerelevance. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TheresearchreportedinallchaptersexceptChapters1,10,17,18,20,24and25wasundertakeninpart bytheFloodRiskManagementResearchConsortium(FRMRC).TheFRMRCissupportedbygrants GR/S76304/01 and EP/F020511/1 from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, in partnershipwiththeDEFRA/EAJointResearchProgrammeonFloodandCoastalDefence,UKWIR, OPW (Ireland), the Scottish Government and the Rivers Agency (Northern Ireland). This financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The consortium is also grateful to the Environment Agency for providing LiDAR the data and the Ordnance Survey for providing Mastermap(cid:1) data to support the consortium’smodellingactivities.Themanyreviewersofthechaptersherearethankedfortheirtime, andgenerousattentiontodetail. GarethPenderandHazelFaulkner September2010 Contributors TONY ANDRYSZEWSKI PolicyManager,EnvironmentAgency,AztecHouse,Bristol,UK RODOLFO ARADAS, PhD HalcrowGroupLtd,BuenosAires,Argentina BARNEY N. AUSTIN, PhD PEDirectorofHydrologicServices,INTERA,Inc.,Austin,TX,USA GEOFFREY L. AUSTIN, MSC, PhD, FRSNZ ProfessorofGeophysics,PhysicsDepartment,University ofAuckland,NewZealand CAROLINE BALLARD, ME ResearchAssistant,DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering, ImperialCollegeLondon,UK PAUL D. BATES, PhD ProfessorofHydrology,SchoolofGeographicalSciences,UniversityofBristol, UK GEOFF BAXTER PhD Research Scientist - Flooding and Communities, Research, Monitoring and InnovationEvidenceDirectorate,EnvironmentAgency,Cardiff,Wales,UK KEITH BEVEN, PhD Professor of Hydrology,Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster,LA14YQ,UK DAVID S. BIEDENHARN, PhD PrincipalInvestigator,BiedenharnGroup,LLC,Vicksburg,MS39180, USA JOHN BLANKSBY, DMS, CENG MICE Research Fellow, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering,UniversityofSheffield,UK ANDREW BROOKES, PhD, FCIWEM, MIEMA, C.WEM, CENV, CSCI, CGEOG DivisionalDirector, JacobsEngineeringUKLtd,1180EskdaleRoad,Winnersh,Wokingham,RG145TU,UK NATALIYA S BULYGINA, PhD Research Associate, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,ImperialCollegeLondon,UK IAN D. CLUCKIE, MSC., PhD, FRENG, CENG, FICE, FCIWEM, FRSA, FRMETSOC Professorand Pro-Vice-Chancellor(ScienceandEngineering),SwanseaUniversity,Wales,UK TOM J. COULTHARD, PhD ProfessorofPhysicalGeography,UniversityofHull,Hull,HU67RX,UK MARK DIXON, FIMS, MBE Independent,WestMersea,Essex Contributors ix SLOBODAN DJORDJEVIC(cid:1), PhD Associate Professor of Hydraulic Engineering, Centre for Water Systems,CollegeofEngineering,MathematicsandPhysicalSciences,UniversityofExeter,UK JOHN EWEN, PhD SchoolofCivilEngineeringandGeosciences,NewcastleUniversity,Newcastle uponTyne,UK HAZEL FAULKNER, MSC, PhD Professor of Environmental Management, Flood Hazard Research Centre,MiddlesexUniversity,UK LORNA FEWTRELL, PhD, FRSPH Centre for Research into Environment and Health, Aberystwyth University,Wales,UK ZOE FROGBROOK, PhD Advisor: Soils and Forestry, Environment Agency Wales, UK. Formerly at CentreforEcologyandHydrology,EnvironmentCentreWales,Bangor,Wales,UK GERALD E. GALLOWAY, PhD, PE ProfessorofEngineering,GlennL.MartinInstitute,Universityof Maryland,USA STANFORD GIBSON, PhD ResearchHydraulicEngineer,HydrologicEngineeringCenter,Davis,CA 95616,USA NIGEL J.D. GRAHAM, MSC, PhD, DIC, SCD, FICE, FICHEME, FCIWEM, CENG, CSCI, CENV Professor of Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, ImperialCollege,London,UK COLIN GREEN, MA ProfessorofGeography,FloodHazardResearchCentre,MiddlesexUniversity,UK JIM W. HALL, PhD, CENG, FICE ProfessorofEarthSystemsEngineering,SchoolofCivilEngineering andGeosciences,NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UK J. BARRIE HOLDEN, CCHEM, MRSC InnovationProgrammeManager,AnglianWaterServicesLtd, Peterborough,UK JOSÉ HORRILLO-CARABALLO, PhD ResearchFellow,SchoolofEngineering,UniversityofPlymouth, UK BETHANNA M JACKSON, PhD Lecturer inHydrology andWater Resources, School ofGeography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victo, ria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Formerly at ImperialCollegeLondon,UK DAVID KAY, PhD ProfessorofEnvironmentandHealth,CentreforCatchmentandCoastalResearch andCentreforResearchintoEnvironmentandHealth,HydrologyandRiverBasinDynamicsResearch Group,IGES,AberystwythUniversity,Wales,UK MALIK FIDA ABDULLAH KHAN CEGIS,Dhaka,Bangladesh JONATHAN LAWRY, PhD Professor of Artificial Intelligence, Department of Engineering Mathematics,UniversityofBristol,Queen’sBuilding,UniversityWalk,Bristol,UK CHARLES D. LITTLE JR, PE Research Hydraulic Engineer, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research&DevelopmentCenter,Vicksburg,MS39180,USA GAVIN LONG, PhD ResearchAssociate,DepartmentofCivilEngineering,UniversityofNottingham, UK LUKE LOVELL, MSC Halcrow,Swindon,UK x Contributors C(cid:3)EDO MAKSIMOVIC(cid:1), PhD ProfessorialResearchFellow,CentreforUrbanWater,DepartmentofCivil andEnvironmentalEngineering,ImperialCollegeLondon,UK MILES R. MARSHALL, PhD Teaching Fellow in Physical Geography, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Formerly at ImperialCollegeLondon,UK DAVID C. MASON, PhD Reader, NERC Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading,UK MICHAEL J. MAWDESLEY, PhD Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, TheUniversityofNottingham,UK SIMON McCARTHY, PhD Researcher,FloodHazardResearchCentre,MiddlesexUniversity,UK DANIEL R. McCULLOCH formerly Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Queen’sBuilding,UniversityWalk,Bristol,UK NEIL MCINTYRE, PhD Reader,DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,ImperialCollege London,UK DAVID M. MOONEY, PhD, PE ProgramEngineer,SanJoaquinRiverRestorationProject,Bureauof Reclamation,Sacramento,CA95825,USA AINUN NISHAT, PhD IUCN-WorldConservationUnion,Dhaka,Bangladesh BUSHRA NISHAT InstituteofWaterModelling,Bangladesh SYLVAIN NÉELZ, PhD Former Lecturer, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh,Scotland,UK ENDA O'CONNELL, PhD ProfessorofWaterResourcesEngineering,SchoolofCivilEngineeringand Geosciences,NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UK. GREG O'DONNELL, PhD CatchmentChangeNetwork,SchoolofCivilEngineeringandGeosciences, NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UK ADRIÁN PEDROZO-ACUÑA, PhD Investigador, Instituto de Ingenier(cid:1)ıa, Universidad Nacional Auto´nomadeM(cid:1)exico,Mexico GARETH PENDER, PhD, CENG, FICE, FCIWEM, FRSE Professor of Environmental Engineering, SchooloftheBuiltEnvironment,Heriot-WattUniversity,Edinburgh,Scotland,UK EDMUND PENNING-ROWSELL, MA, PhD ProfessorofGeography,FloodHazardResearchCentre, MiddlesexUniversity,UK NICHOLAS J. RANDON Artificial Intelligence Group, Department of Engineering Mathematics, UniversityofBristol,BS81TR,UK DOMINIC E. REEVE, PhD, CMATH, FIMA, FICE Professor of Coastal Dynamics, School of Engineering,UniversityofPlymouth,UK BRIAN REYNOLDS, PhD Senior Water Quality Scientist, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, EnvironmentCentreWales,Bangor,Wales,UK ADRIAN J. SAUL, PhD, FICE YorkshireWaterChairofWaterEngineering,PennineWaterGroup, UniversityofSheffield,DepartmentofCivilandStructuralEngineering,Sheffield,UK