Finnish Grocery Retailing Market Assessment for the Deployment of Payment Innovation Case: Uniqul Face Recognition Payment Application LAHTI UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES Faculty of Business Studies Degree Programme in International Business Bachelor’s Thesis Spring 2016 Quoc Anh Tran Lahti University of Applied Sciences Degree Programme in International Business TRAN, QUOC ANH: Finnish Grocery Retailing Market Assessment for the Deployment of Payment Innovation Case: Uniqul Face Recognition Payment Application Bachelor’s Thesis in International Business, 146 pages, 13 pages of appendices Spring 2016 ABSTRACT In 2013, MasterCard inaugurated “The Cashless Journey” project, through which it predicted that the world would soon reach the point where cash would be completely eradicated to pave way for other superior instruments. In fact, the global payment industry has already been undergoing a massive paradigmatic metamorphosis, evolving from an economically-burdensome cash orientation into a more efficient and healthy non-cash model. This “cashless journey” has consequently opened up a vast “blue ocean” for emergence of payment innovations. Acknowledging the bonanza the market might hold, the author proposes this thesis as a fulcrum for Uniqul Oy, an innovative payment service provider, to evaluate the Finnish grocery retailing market for the deployment of its breakthrough face recognition payment application. This thesis employs a deductive approach and harnesses data from both qualitative and quantitative sources. The contents are divided into two parts: theory and empiricism. While the theoretical part explicates the market assessment tools and briefs through the Uniqul face recognition payment application, the empirical part utilizes the defined tools to assess the Finnish macro-environment and payment industry, and further delves into the Finnish customer analysis with pre-collated data from interviews with grocery retailers, internet surveys with shoppers, and ethnography at several stores in Finland. The findings of this thesis principally justify that the Finnish grocery retailing market is decently viable for the deployment of Uniqul application. However, specifically regarding the early introduction phase, there might be some definite impediments that could lower the market viability for Uniqul application. The author, hence recommends that assessment of other markets in Finland along with a more in-depth customer analysis should be conducted before the strategic deployment decision is made. Keywords: Finnish grocery retailing market, market assessment, payment innovations, Uniqul face recognition payment application ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis could not have been even half-completed if it had not been for the rigorous and indefatigable support from distinct individuals. I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to all these persons. First and foremost, I must thank Mr. Riku Nummikoski for all his exceptionally-prompt responses to my queries. Your instantaneity is a massive driving force behind me. I would, as well like to reserve my appreciation to Mr. Ruslan Pisarenko, CBDO of Uniqul Oy. Your initial guidance and fervent mentorship during my internship are just indispensable. My heartfelt gratitude also goes to my prodigious friends: M, Q, N, G, O, H, who have contributed stockpiles of comments, be them constructive or destructive. Last and by no means least, I owe deep gratitude to my one and only LN. Thank you for your guidance, your care, your timely motivation, your anger, your encouragement, and your being you. Sincerely, Anh Tran TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research background 1 1.2 Thesis objective and research questions 3 1.3 Research methodology and data collection 4 1.4 Ethical Matters 7 1.5 Scope and limitations 8 1.6 Theoretical framework 9 1.7 Thesis structure 9 2 EXTERNAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS 12 2.1 Overview 12 2.2 PESTLE Analysis – Macro-environment analysis 13 2.3 Porter’s Five Forces – Industry analysis 17 2.4 Competitor analysis 24 2.5 Customer analysis 30 3 UNIQUL POINT-OF-SALES PAYMENT APPLICATION 40 3.1 General overview of point-of-sales payment system 40 3.2 Synopsis and assessment of Uniqul face recognition payment application 46 3.3 Chapter 3 summary and final verdict 52 4 FINLAND MACROECONOMICS ANALYSIS 54 4.1 Political 54 4.2 Economic 56 4.3 Social 58 4.4 Technological 60 4.5 Legal 60 4.6 Chapter 4 summary and final verdict 62 5 THE FINNISH PAYMENT INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 65 5.1 Porter’s Five Forces analysis of the Finnish payment industry 65 5.1.1 Threat of new entrants: upper medium 66 5.1.2 Bargaining power of suppliers: lower medium 68 5.1.3 Bargaining power of buyers: high 70 5.1.4 Threat of substitutes: low 72 5.1.5 Rivalry among incumbents: medium 72 5.2 Competitor analysis in the Finnish payment industry 74 5.2.1 Identifying competitors 74 5.2.2 Analyzing the competitors 76 5.3 Chapter 5 summary and final verdict 94 6 FINNISH CUSTOMER ANALYSIS 96 6.1 Grocery retailer analysis 96 6.1.1 Segmentation of grocery retailers 96 6.1.2 Grocery retailer unmet needs and motivations 98 6.2 End user analysis 104 6.2.1 Survey questionnaire 105 6.2.2 Survey analysis and ethnography results 105 6.2.3 Potential end user demand estimation for Uniqul deployment 116 6.3 Chapter 6 summary and final verdict 117 7 CONCLUSION 120 7.1 Answers to research questions 120 7.2 Recommendations 122 7.3 Reliability and validity 126 8 SUMMARY 128 REFERENCES 129 APPENDICES 147 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMINOLOGIES Android A mobile operating system currently developed Google Inc. and based on Linux Kernel CEO Chief Executive Officer CFO Chief Financial Officer EMV Europay, MasterCard, and Visa – A new standard for payment cards. Card data are stored on integrated circuits rather than magnetic stripes, and require either a PIN or an authorized signature to be extracted. This new standard allegedly enables safer, smarter and more secure transactions across cards. (MasterCard 2015.) iOS A mobile operating system developed by Apple Inc. and used exclusively for Apple devices IPO Initial Public Offering NFC Near Field Communication R&D Research and Development SEPA Single Euro Payments Area Tokenization A new payment security solution in which sensitive data are replaced by non-sensitive equivalents, rather than being encrypted (Weber 2014) Uniqul Within the context of this thesis, the term “Uniqul” alternatively refers to both: 1. Uniqul Oy 2. Uniqul face recognition payment application 1 1 INTRODUCTION This chapter serves as a panoramic sketch of the thesis, in which the author depicts seven key issues: research background, objectives and research questions, research methodology and data collection, ethical matters, scope and limitations, thesis structure and theoretical framework. By the end of this chapter, readers can hopefully gain a brief insight into not only the principal content of this thesis, but also its rationale and potential influences. 1.1 Research background During roughly the past decade, the world’s payment landscape has witnessed a radical change, or to be more precise, an extreme revolution, which is prominently attributed to the robust development of advanced technology (World Payments Report 2014). According to Forbes (2014), traditional cash payment is no longer regarded as “The King” since its market proportion has been, and is being substantially superseded by non-cash transaction. Recent research conducted by Capgemini and the Royal Bank of Scotland (2014) shows a drastic increase of 33.8% in worldwide non-cash payment over just 5 years, from 250 billion transactions in 2008 up to 334.3 billion transactions by the end of 2012. Meanwhile, cash payment, on the flip side of the coin, has undergone a downslide to accounting for merely under 34% of total global consumer spend in 2011 (MasterCard 2013). 2 FIGURE 1. Number of Worldwide Non-Cash Transactions, 2008-2012 (Capgemini Payment Report 2014) Today, novel payment technologies and solutions are proliferating more tremendously than ever. In 2014, an aggregate of approximately 5000 financial-technology startups along with $12 billion investment in this sector were recorded globally, tripling the corresponding figures of 2013. This boom has massively accelerated the reshaping of the payment industry very close towards the eventual destination of a cash- and wallet- free paradigm. (Capgemini Payment Service 2014; MasterCard Advisors 2014; The Economist 2015.) Being vastly intrigued by the vision of a no-cash-no-wallet society since the author himself is an absent-minded person, who forgets his wallet more times than he actually goes shopping, coupled with the fact that he is currently doing an internship for Uniqul Oy – a face recognition payment provider, the author decides to scrutinize the possibilities of deploying the face recognition payment application in the Finnish grocery retailing section. The selection to research the Finnish grocery retailing market is backed by a set of three reasons: First, Finland embraces a highly-viable environment for the deployment of Uniqul face recognition payment application. Report by Capgemini and the Royal Bank of Scotland (2014) has indicated that Finland has constantly been the world’s leader in terms of the number of non-cash transactions 3 made per inhabitant. This figure is still growing exponentially at the rate of 10.6 % in the year of 2012, outstripping other nations in Europe and North America (e.g. the USA at 2.6%, the Netherlands at 4.6%, Denmark at 6.1%) (Capgemini Payment Service 2014). Second, Finland is the home turf of Uniqul Oy. Hence deploying the product in Finland shall allow Uniqul to gain an edge over competitors with regards to its familiarization of customer understanding, market insights, business connections as well as local factors of production (Grunert 2006). Third, the Finnish grocery retailing industry poses an immense market opportunity yet to be exploited. According to Statistics Finland (2013), during the period from 2006 to 2012, the population of Finland escalated by almost 150 thousand inhabitants, whilst only 39 new grocery stores were opened nationwide, resulting in a queueing congestion during peak hours in major municipalities in Finland (Finnish Grocery Trade 2013). The issue has, hence created a vast uncontested “blue ocean” for new, more time-efficient payment methods beside the traditional cash and card transactions (Kim and Mauborgne 2005). 1.2 Thesis objective and research questions The pivotal objective of this thesis is to research, analyze and evaluate the Finnish grocery retailing market in order to prepare for the first deployment of Uniqul face recognition payment application. Hence, the core research question is formed: How viable is the Finnish grocery retailing market for the deployment of Uniqul face recognition payment application? So as to better elucidate the issue and ensure a comprehensive approach, the author identifies the following sub-research questions: Q1. What are the macroeconomic opportunities and threats that Finland poses to Uniqul? 4 Q2. How intense is the competition in the Finnish payment industry that Uniqul has to face? Q3. Is there a potential market demand for Uniqul face recognition payment application within the Finnish grocery retailing market? 1.3 Research methodology and data collection Research methodology and data collection are indeed indispensable to any research as they are factors that directly turn theoretical research questions into practical projects (Robson 2011, 70). While research methodology refers to the underlying philosophy of how data are collected, analyzed and utilized, data collection essentially addresses the sources and techniques of collecting the data (Rajasekar, Philominathan and Chinnathambi 2013). Figure 2 is a simplified adaptation of the “research onion” model by Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill (2009) to demonstrate this thesis’s research methodology and data collection: Research Approach Research Methodology Research Strategies Primary and Data collection techniques secondary data collection FIGURE 2. Research onion of the thesis (Simplified adaptation from Saunders, et al. (2009))